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Biological Evolution↗
Biomedical subjects
Martin A Nowak
Publications and source records attributed to Martin A Nowak.
Emergence of cooperation and evolutionary stability in finite populations.
To explain the evolution of cooperation by natural selection has been a major goal of biologists since Darwin. Cooperators help others at a cost to themselves, while defectors receive the benefits of altruism without providing any help in return. The standard game dynamical formulation is the 'Prisoner's Dilemma', in which two players have a choice between cooperation and defection. In the repeated game, cooperators using direct reciprocity cannot be exploited by defectors, but it is unclear how such cooperators can arise in the first place. In general, defectors are stable against invasion by cooperators. This understanding is based on traditional concepts of evolutionary stability and dynamics in infinite populations. Here we study evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations. We show that a single cooperator using a strategy like 'tit-for-tat' can invade a population of defectors with a probability that corresponds to a net selective advantage. We specify the conditions required for natural selection to favour the emergence of cooperation and define evolutionary stability in finite populations.
Biological Evolution↗
Chaos and language.
Human language is a complex communication system with unlimited expressibility. Children spontaneously develop a native language by exposure to linguistic data from their speech community. Over historical time, languages change dramatically and unpredictably by accumulation of small changes and by interaction with other languages. We have previously developed a mathematical model for the acquisition and evolution of language in heterogeneous populations of speakers. This model is based on game dynamical equations with learning. Here, we show that simple examples of such equations can display complex limit cycles and chaos. Hence, language dynamical equations mimic complicated and unpredictable changes of languages over time. In terms of evolutionary game theory, we note that imperfect learning can induce chaotic switching among strict Nash equilibria.
Biological Evolution↗
Linear model of colon cancer initiation.
Cancer results if regulatory mechanisms of cell birth and death are disrupted. Colorectal tumorigenesis is initiated by somatic or inherited mutations in the APC tumor suppressor gene pathway. Several additional genetic hits in other tumor suppressor genes and oncogenes drive the progression from polyps to malignant, invasive cancer. The majority of colorectal cancers present chromosomal instability, CIN, which is caused by mutations in genes that are required to maintain chromosomal stability. A major question in cancer genetics is whether CIN is an early event and thus a driving force of tumor progression. We present a new mathematical model of colon cancer initiation assuming a linear flow from stem cells to differentiated cells to apoptosis. We study the consequences of mutations in different cell types and calculate the conditions for CIN to precede APC inactivation. We find that early emergence of CIN is very likely in colorectal tumorigenesis.
Cell Transformation, Neoplastic↗
Evolutionary dynamics of biological games.
Darwinian dynamics based on mutation and selection form the core of mathematical models for adaptation and coevolution of biological populations. The evolutionary outcome is often not a fitness-maximizing equilibrium but can include oscillations and chaos. For studying frequency-dependent selection, game-theoretic arguments are more appropriate than optimization algorithms. Replicator and adaptive dynamics describe short- and long-term evolution in phenotype space and have found applications ranging from animal behavior and ecology to speciation, macroevolution, and human language. Evolutionary game theory is an essential component of a mathematical and computational approach to biology.
Adaptation, Biological↗
Prisoners of the dilemma.
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Biological Evolution↗
Evolutionary dynamics of invasion and escape.
Whenever life wants to invade a new habitat or escape from a lethal selection pressure, some mutations may be necessary to yield sustainable replication. We imagine situations like (i) a parasite infecting a new host, (ii) a species trying to invade a new ecological niche, (iii) cancer cells escaping from chemotherapy, (iv) viruses or microbes evading anti-microbial therapy, and also (v) the repeated attempts of combinatorial chemistry in the very beginning of life to produce self-replicating molecules. All such seemingly unrelated situations have a common structure in terms of Darwinian dynamics: a replicator with a basic reproductive ratio less than one attempts to find some mutations that allow indefinite survival. We develop a general theory, based on multitype branching processes, to describe the evolutionary dynamics of invasion and escape.
Animals↗
Problems of somatic mutation and cancer.
Somatic mutation plays a key role in transforming normal cells into cancerous cells. The analysis of cancer progression therefore requires the study of how point mutations and chromosomal mutations accumulate in cellular lineages. The spread of somatic mutations depends on the mutation rate, the number of cell divisions in the history of a cellular lineage, and the nature of competition between different cellular lineages. We consider how various aspects of tissue architecture and cellular competition affect the pace of mutation accumulation. We also discuss the rise and fall of somatic mutation rates during cancer progression.
Cell Lineage↗
Evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations.
We introduce a model of stochastic evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations which is similar to the familiar replicator dynamics for infinite populations. Our focus is on the conditions for selection favoring the invasion and/or fixation of new phenotypes. For infinite populations, there are three generic selection scenarios describing evolutionary game dynamics among two strategies. For finite populations, there are eight selection scenarios. For a fixed payoff matrix a number of these scenarios can occur for different population sizes. We discuss several examples with unexpected behavior.
Biological Evolution↗
Dynamics of cancer progression.
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Disease Progression↗
Stochastic tunnels in evolutionary dynamics.
We study a situation that arises in the somatic evolution of cancer. Consider a finite population of replicating cells and a sequence of mutations: type 0 can mutate to type 1, which can mutate to type 2. There is no back mutation. We start with a homogeneous population of type 0. Mutants of type 1 emerge and either become extinct or reach fixation. In both cases, they can generate type 2, which also can become extinct or reach fixation. If mutation rates are small compared to the inverse of the population size, then the stochastic dynamics can be described by transitions between homogeneous populations. A "stochastic tunnel" arises, when the population moves from all 0 to all 2 without ever being all 1. We calculate the exact rate of stochastic tunneling for the case when type 1 is as fit as type 0 or less fit. Type 2 has the highest fitness. We discuss implications for the elimination of tumor suppressor genes and the activation of genetic instability. Although our theory is developed for cancer genetics, stochastic tunnels are general phenomena that could arise in many circumstances.
Cell Physiological Phenomena↗
Evolutionary dynamics of escape from biomedical intervention.
Viruses, bacteria, eukaryotic parasites, cancer cells, agricultural pests and other inconvenient animates have an unfortunate tendency to escape from selection pressures that are meant to control them. Chemotherapy, anti-viral drugs or antibiotics fail because their targets do not hold still, but evolve resistance. A major problem in developing vaccines is that microbes evolve and escape from immune responses. The fundamental question is the following: if a genetically diverse population of replicating organisms is challenged with a selection pressure that has the potential to eradicate it, what is the probability that this population will produce escape mutants? Here, we use multi-type branching processes to describe the accumulation of mutants in independent lineages. We calculate escape dynamics for arbitrary mutation networks and fitness landscapes. Our theory shows how to estimate the probability of success or failure of biomedical intervention, such as drug treatment and vaccination, against rapidly evolving organisms.
Biological Evolution↗
Somatic selection for and against cancer.
In multicellular organisms, cells cooperate within a well-defined developmental program. Cancer is a breakdown of such cooperation: cells mutate to phenotypes of uncoordinated proliferation. We study basic principles of the architecture of solid tissues that influence the rate of cancer initiation. In particular, we explore how somatic selection acts to prevent or to promote cancer. Cells with mutations in oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes often have increased proliferation rates. Somatic selection increases their abundance and thus enhances the risk of cancer. Many potentially harmful mutations, however, increase the probability of triggering apoptosis and, hence, initially lead to cells with reduced net proliferation rates. Such cells are eliminated by somatic selection, which therefore also works to reduce the risk of cancer. We show that a tissue organization into small compartments avoids the rapid spread of mutations in oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes, but promotes genetic instability. In small compartments, genetic instability, which confers a selective disadvantage for the cell, can spread by random drift. If both deleterious and advantageous mutations participate in tumor initiation, then we find an intermediate optimum for the compartment size.
Animals↗
The linear process of somatic evolution.
Cancer is the consequence of an unwanted evolutionary process. Cells receive mutations that alter their phenotype. Especially dangerous are those mutations that increase the net reproductive rate of cells, thereby leading to neoplasia and later to cancer. The standard models of evolutionary dynamics consider well mixed populations of individuals in symmetric positions. Here we introduce a spatially explicit, asymmetric stochastic process that captures the essential architecture of evolutionary dynamics operating within tissues of multicellular organisms. The "linear process" has the property of cancelling out selective differences among cells yet retaining the protective function of apoptosis. This design can slow down the rate of somatic evolution dramatically and therefore delay the onset of cancer.
Animals↗
Stochastic elimination of cancer cells.
Tissues of multicellular organisms consist of stem cells and differentiated cells. Stem cells divide to produce new stem cells or differentiated cells. Differentiated cells divide to produce new differentiated cells. We show that such a tissue design can reduce the rate of fixation of mutations that increase the net proliferation rate of cells. It has, however, no consequence for the rate of fixation of neutral mutations. We calculate the optimum relative abundance of stem cells that minimizes the rate of generating cancer cells. There is a critical fraction of stem cell divisions that is required for a stochastic elimination ('wash out') of cancer cells.
Animals↗
Mutation landscapes.
A traditional picture of evolutionary dynamics with constant fitness is that of genomes living in sequence space and adapting on fitness landscapes. Mutation rates are considered to be constant or externally regulated. If, however, we take into account that genomes also encode for enzymes that perform replication and error correction, then individual genomes not only have a specific replication rate (fitness), but also a specific mutation rate. This leads to the concept of a mutation landscape. We explore evolution on mutation landscapes. Localization in pure mutation landscapes is only possible under extremely restrictive conditions. Coupling of mutation landscapes and fitness landscapes leads to localization and hence adaptation and evolution. We analyse how mutation landscapes facilitate localization in fitness landscapes and vice versa. Finally, we show that for mutation landscapes, at equilibrium, with constant environment, there is not necessarily selection for the minimum mutation rate. Instead, the target of selection is an optimum distribution of mutation rates, a 'mutational quasispecies'.
Animals↗
Mutation-selection networks of cancer initiation: tumor suppressor genes and chromosomal instability.
In this paper, we derive analytic solutions of stochastic mutation-selection networks that describe early events of cancer formation. A main assumption is that cancer is initiated in tissue compartments, where only a relatively small number of cells are at risk of mutating into cells that escape from homeostatic regulation. In this case, the evolutionary dynamics can be approximated by a low-dimensional stochastic process with a linear Kolmogorov forward equation that can be solved analytically. Most of the time, the cell population is homogeneous with respect to relevant mutations. Occasionally, such homogeneous states are connected by 'stochastic tunnels'. We give a precise analysis of the existence of tunnels and calculate the rate of tunneling. Finally, we calculate the conditions for chromosomal instability (CIN) to precede inactivation of the first tumor suppressor gene. In this case, CIN is an early event and a driving force of cancer progression. The techniques developed in this paper can be used to study arbitrarily complex mutation-selection networks of the somatic evolution of cancer.
Cell Physiological Phenomena↗
Language dynamics in finite populations.
Any mechanism of language acquisition can only learn a restricted set of grammars. The human brain contains a mechanism for language acquisition which can learn a restricted set of grammars. The theory of this restricted set is universal grammar (UG). UG has to be sufficiently specific to induce linguistic coherence in a population. This phenomenon is known as "coherence threshold". Previously, we have calculated the coherence threshold for deterministic dynamics and infinitely large populations. Here, we extend the framework to stochastic processes and finite populations. If there is selection for communicative function (selective language dynamics), then the analytic results for infinite populations are excellent approximations for finite populations; as expected, finite populations need a slightly higher accuracy of language acquisition to maintain coherence. If there is no selection for communicative function (neutral language dynamics), then linguistic coherence is only possible for finite populations.
Humans↗