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Michael B Spencer

Publications and source records attributed to Michael B Spencer.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Modeling performance and alertness: the QinetiQ approach.

The basis of the QinetiQ alertness model used at the heart of the System for Aircrew Fatigue Evaluation (SAFE) free-standing software tool is described. A number of extensions to the basic model that are applicable to the civil aviation environment are outlined, based on the analysis of eight studies involving sleep diaries gathered from pilots undertaking a range of duty schedules. The relationship between subjective alertness and performance of laboratory tasks is described and it is concluded that different tasks are affected differentially by fatigue. In general, there is a larger impact on the incidence of errors than on response time. The implementation of the full model in the Integrated Performance Modeling Environment is described and the application of both the alertness and performance models to two scenarios provided by the workshop organizers is outlined. It is concluded that further work is needed in three areas: cumulative fatigue, the impact of sleep architecture, and the prediction of performance for complex tasks in systems.

Aerospace Medicine↗

Limitations of risk analysis in the determination of medical factors in road vehicle accidents.

The purpose of risk analysis in the determination of medical factors in road vehicle accidents is to evaluate the risks that are associated with different strategies for accident reduction, so that the subsequent decision making process can be based on a best assessment of the likely benefits. However, it is vital to appreciate the limitations of such an approach, especially where the conclusions depend heavily on the accuracy of the assumptions made. In this paper the assumptions used in some recent analyses concerned with incapacitation, epilepsy, hypoglycaemia and psycho-active medication are explored, and the additional information required to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of risk indicated. The conclusions from this analysis do not invalidate the use of risk assessment, but draw attention to its limitations and show how a sensitivity analysis can help to identify those areas where more precise information is needed before such an approach can be used confidently in a policy setting.

Accidents, Traffic↗