Biomedical subjects

Michael Begon

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Begon.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Inference of cowpox virus transmission rates between wild rodent host classes using space-time interaction.

There have been virtually no studies of 'who acquires infection from whom' in wildlife populations, but patterns of transmission within and between different classes of host are likely to be reflected in the spatiotemporal distribution of infection among those host classes. Here, we use a modified form of K-function analysis to test for space-time interaction among bank voles and wood mice infectious with cowpox virus. There was no evidence for transmission between the two host species, supporting previous evidence that they act as separate reservoirs for cowpox. Among wood mice, results suggested that transmission took place primarily between individuals of the opposite sex, raising the possibility that cowpox is sexually transmitted in this species. Results for bank voles indicated that infected females might be a more important source of infection to either sex than are males. The suggestion of different modes of transmission in the two species is itself consistent with the apparent absence of transmission between species.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Delayed density-dependent season length alone can lead to rodent population cycles.

Studies of cyclic microtine populations (voles and lemmings) have suggested a relationship between the previous year's population density and the subsequent timing of the onset of reproduction by overwintered breeding females. No studies have explored the importance of this relationship in the generation of population cycles. Here we mathematically examine the implications of variation in reproductive season length caused by delayed density-dependent changes in its start date. We demonstrate that when reproductive season length is a function of past population densities, it is possible to get realistic population cycles without invoking any changes in birth rates or survival. When parameterized for field voles (Microtus agrestis) in Kielder Forest (northern England), our most realistic model predicts population cycles of similar periodicity to the Kielder populations. Our study highlights the potential importance of density-dependent reproductive timing in microtine population cycles and calls for investigations into the mechanism(s) underlying this phenomenon.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

A semi-stochastic model of the transmission of Escherichia coli O157 in a typical UK dairy herd: dynamics, sensitivity analysis and intervention/prevention strategies.

When modelling the transmission of infection within small populations, it is necessary to consider the possibility of stochastic fade-out of infection. We present a semi-stochastic model for the transmission of a microparasite, in this case Escherichia coli O157, within a multigroup system, namely a typical UK dairy herd. The model includes birth, death, maturation, the dry/lactating cycle and various types of transmission (i.e. direct, pseudovertical (representing direct faecal-oral transmission between dam and calf within the first 48 h) and indirect (via free-living infectious units in the environment)). We present the results of our simulation study alongside data from empirical studies and also compare simulation results with those for the corresponding deterministic model. We then examine the effects of reducing shedding in the food-producing groups on outbreak size and prevalence of infection. A sensitivity analysis of herd prevalence reveals that, for both the deterministic and the semi-stochastic model, the prevalence within the herd is most sensitive to two parameters relating to the weaned group. This supports our previously reported conclusions for the deterministic model, which were based on an analysis of the next-generation matrix. The sensitivity analysis also indicates that herd prevalence is greatly affected by two other parameters relating to the lactating group. We conclude by discussing the possible efficacy of suggested intervention strategies.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Cowpox virus infection in natural field vole Microtus agrestis populations: delayed density dependence and individual risk.

1. Little is known about the dynamics of pathogen (microparasite) infection in wildlife populations, and less still about sources of variation in the risk of infection. Here we present the first detailed analysis of such variation. 2. Cowpox virus is an endemic sublethal pathogen circulating in populations of wild rodents. Cowpox prevalence was monitored longitudinally for 2 years, in populations of field voles exhibiting multiannual cycles of density in Kielder Forest, UK. 3. The probability that available susceptible animals seroconverted in a given trap session was significantly positively related to host density with a 3-month time lag. 4. Males were significantly more likely to seroconvert than females. 5. Despite most infection being found in young animals (because transmission rates were generally high) mature individuals were more likely to seroconvert than immature ones, suggesting that behavioural or physiological changes associated with maturity contribute to variation in infection risk. 6. Hence, these analyses confirm that there is a delayed numerical response of cowpox infection to vole density, supporting the hypothesis that endemic pathogens may play some part in shaping vole cycles.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Epizootiologic parameters for plague in Kazakhstan.

Reliable estimates are lacking of key epizootiologic parameters for plague caused by Yersinia pestis infection in its natural reservoirs. We report results of a 3-year longitudinal study of plague dynamics in populations of a maintenance host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), in 2 populations in Kazakhstan. Serologic results suggest a mid-summer peak in the abundance of infectious hosts and possible transmission from the reservoir to humans. Decrease in antibody titer to an undetectable level showed no seasonal pattern. Our findings did not support the use of the nitroblue-tetrazolium test characterization of plague-infected hosts. Y. pestis infection reduced survival of otherwise asymptomatic hosts.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Disease dynamics in cyclic populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis): cowpox virus and vole tuberculosis (Mycobacterium microti).

The possible role of pathogens in rodent population cycles has been largely neglected since Elton's 'epidemic hypothesis' of 1931. To revisit this question, 12 adjacent, cyclic but out-of-phase populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis) in North East England were studied and the initial results are presented here. The prevalences of antibodies to cowpox virus and of clinical signs of Mycobacterium microti infection (vole tuberculosis) showed delayed (not direct) density dependence (with a lag of three to six months). This did not result from changes in population structure, even though there were such changes associated with the different phases of the cycle. The prevalences rose as vole numbers rose, and peaked as numbers declined. The apparent lag in the numerical response of infection prevalence to changes in host abundance is consistent with the hypothesis that diseases, singly or in combination, play a hitherto underestimated role in the dynamics of cyclic populations.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Flea-borne Bartonella grahamii and Bartonella taylorii in bank voles.

Bartonella species are increasingly associated with a range of human and animal diseases. Despite this, we have a poor understanding of the ecology and epidemiology of many species, especially those circulating in wild populations. Previous studies have demonstrated that a diverse range of Bartonella species are abundant in wild rodent populations; little is known regarding their modes of transmission, although both direct and indirect routes have been suggested. In this study, with bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) as the host species, we demonstrate that the rodent flea Ctenophthalmus nobilis is a competent vector of at least two Bartonella species, B. grahamii, which has previously been associated with human infection, and B. taylorii. In contrast, no evidence of either horizontal or vertical transmission was seen in bank voles inoculated with B. taylorii maintained in an arthropod-free environment; this finding suggests that fleas may be essential for transmitting some Bartonella species.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

A model appropriate to the transmission of a human food-borne pathogen in a multigroup managed herd.

We describe a model of microparasite transmission within a multigroup managed farming system. The model was formulated to represent transmission of Escherichia coli O157 within a typical UK dairy herd and was used to suggest possible on-farm control strategies. The model includes birth, death, maturation, the dry/lactating cycle and various types of transmission (i.e. direct, pseudovertical (representing direct faecal-oral transmission between dam and calf within the first 48 h) and indirect (via free-living infectious units in the environment)). A combination of numerical and analytical techniques was used to analyse the model. We found that pseudovertical transmission and indirect transmission via infectious units in the 'general' environment can lead to more groups being affected, but otherwise have relatively little effect on the invasion criteria. To reduce infection within the herd, we suggest that efforts be directed at reducing the opportunity for group-specific indirect transmission-particularly within the weaned group.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Modelling pathogen transmission: the interrelationship between local and global approaches.

We describe two spatial (cellular automaton) host-pathogen models with contrasting types of transmission, where the biologically realistic transmission mechanisms are based entirely on 'local' interactions. The two models, fixed contact area (FCA) and fixed contact number (FCN), may be viewed as local 'equivalents' of commonly used global density- (and frequency-) dependent models. Their outputs are compared with each other and with the patterns generated by these global terms. In the FCN model, unoccupied cells are bypassed, but in the FCA model these impede pathogen spread, extending the period of the epidemic and reducing the prevalence of infection when the pathogen persists. Crucially, generalized linear modelling reveals that the global transmission terms betaSI and beta'SI/N are equally good at describing transmission in both the FCA and FCN models when infected individuals are homogeneously distributed and N is approximately constant, as at the quasi-equilibrium. However, when N varies, the global frequency-dependent term beta'SI/N is better than the density-dependent one, betaSI, at describing transmission in both the FCA and FCN models. Our approach may be used more generally to compare different local contact structures and select the most appropriate global transmission term.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Seasonal dynamics of Anaplasma phagocytophila in a rodent-tick (Ixodes trianguliceps) system, United Kingdom.

We investigated the reservoir role of European wild rodents for Anaplasma phagocytophila using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis of blood collected from individually tagged rodents captured monthly over 2 years. The only tick species observed in the woodland study site was Ixodes trianguliceps, and ruminant reservoir hosts were not known to occur. A. phagocytophila infections were detected in both bank voles and wood mice but were restricted to periods of peak nymphal and adult tick activity. Most PCR-positive rodents were positive only once, suggesting that rodent infections are generally short-lived and that ticks rather than rodents may maintain the infection over winter. Bank voles were more likely to be PCR positive than wood mice, possibly because detectable infections are longer lived in bank voles. This study confirms that woodland rodents can maintain A. phagocytophila in Great Britain in the absence of other reservoir hosts and suggests that I. trianguliceps is a competent vector.

Anaplasma phagocytophilum↗

PubMed2002

Mycobacterium microti infection (vole tuberculosis) in wild rodent populations.

Mycobacterium microti (vole tuberculosis) infections in small wild mammals were first described more than 60 years ago in several populations in Great Britain. Few studies of vole tuberculosis have been undertaken since then, and little is known about the relationship between M. microti isolates originating from different populations or at different times or of the prevalence of this infection in wild rodent populations, despite human cases of M. microti infections being increasingly reported. In this study, field voles (Microtus agrestis), bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus), and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) were found to be infected, with up to 8% having external tuberculous signs, in wild populations in Northumberland and Cheshire, England. Spoligotyping applied directly to the clinical material simultaneously detected and typed M. microti bacteria in skin lesions, lymph glands, and internal abcesses. IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism typing of cultured bacteria was used to compare these isolates with previously isolated strains from both animals and humans. This demonstrated that although the current rodent isolates were distinct from those isolated from voles in the 1930s in Great Britain, they had a high degree of similarity to these strains and were distinct from the M. microti isolates from humans, a pig, and a ferret from The Netherlands. Thus, M. microti infection seems to be widespread in wild rodent populations, but more studies are needed to understand how M. microti might be transmitted from animals to humans and to determine better the zoonotic risk posed.

Animals↗