Biomedical subjects

Michael D Hurd

Publications and source records attributed to Michael D Hurd.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2005

The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study: study design and methods.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the design and methods of the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS), a new national study that will provide data on the antecedents, prevalence, outcomes, and costs of dementia and "cognitive impairment, not demented" (CIND) using a unique study design based on the nationally representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We also illustrate potential uses of the ADAMS data and provide information to interested researchers on obtaining ADAMS and HRS data. METHODS: The ADAMS is the first population-based study of dementia in the United States to include subjects from all regions of the country, while at the same time using a single standardized diagnostic protocol in a community-based sample. A sample of 856 individuals age 70 or older who were participants in the ongoing HRS received an extensive in-home clinical and neuropsychological assessment to determine a diagnosis of normal, CIND, or dementia. Within the CIND and dementia categories, subcategories (e.g. Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia) were assigned to denote the etiology of cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: Linking the ADAMS dementia clinical assessment data to the wealth of available longitudinal HRS data on health, health care utilization, informal care, and economic resources and behavior, will provide a unique opportunity to study the onset of CIND and dementia in a nationally representative population-based sample, as well as the risk factors, prevalence, outcomes, and costs of CIND and dementia.

Aging↗

PubMed2004

Disability forecasts and future Medicare costs.

The traditional focus of disability research has been on the elderly, with good reason. Chronic disability is much more prevalent among the elderly, and it has a more direct impact on the demand for medical care. It is also important to understand trends in disability among the young, however, particularly if these trends diverge from those among the elderly. These trends could have serious implications for future health care spending because more disability at younger ages almost certainly translates into more disability among tomorrow's elderly, and disability is a key predictor of health care spending. Using data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) and the National Health Interview Study (NHIS), we forecast that per-capita Medicare costs will decline for the next fifteen to twenty years, in accordance with recent projections of declining disability among the elderly. By 2020, however, the trend reverses. Per-capita costs begin to rise due to growth in disability among the younger elderly. Total costs may well remain relatively flat until 2010 and then begin to rise because per-capita costs will cease to decline rapidly enough to offset the influx of new elderly people. Overall, cost forecasts for the elderly that incorporate information about disability among today's younger generations yield more pessimistic scenarios than those based solely on elderly data sets, and this information should be incorporated into official Medicare forecasts.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Forecasting the nursing home population.

OBJECTIVE: To forecast growth in the US nursing home population, as a function of trends in disability and marriage. METHODS: Nursing home residence is modeled as a function of disability status, marital status, and other demographic covariates. Our predictions for nursing home residence are built upon joint forecasts of marriage and disability. We use data from the 1992 to 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys, which are individual-level data sets designed to be representative of the US population older than the age of 65. RESULTS: Today's young cohorts will have higher rates and levels of institutionalization than their older counterparts. This will reverse several decades of decline in rates of disability and institutionalization. The nursing home population is likely to be 10-25% higher than would be suggested by a simple extrapolation of past declines in disability. CONCLUSIONS: In recent years, the rate of institutionalization among the elderly has been falling. It is predicted that this trend will reverse itself within the next decade, and that we will see substantial increases in the incidence of institutionalization among the elderly. This result is generated by our prediction of rising disability among the younger cohorts that are beginning to approach old age.

Activities of Daily Living↗