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Biomedical subjects

Mike B Gravenor

Publications and source records attributed to Mike B Gravenor.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

Long and short-term outcomes in patients requiring continuous renal replacement therapy post cardiopulmonary bypass.

OBJECTIVE: The development of acute renal failure following cardiac surgery is a rare but devastating complication with high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess the incidence of acute renal failure necessitating continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in patients who required cardiopulmonary bypass, to determine the factors associated with mortality and to evaluate long-term outcome. METHODS: Patients who underwent cardiac surgery between October 1997 and 2003 and treated with CRRT were included (n=98). Six patients were then excluded (already in established renal failure pre-operatively) and one patient lost to follow-up. A retrospective analysis was carried out. RESULTS: Overall CRRT was used in 2.9% (92/3172). The mean (SD) age of patients was 68 (10) years. Their mean pre-operative creatinine level and duration of cardiopulmonary bypass were 154 (87)micromol/l and 160 (84)min, respectively. Mean duration from surgery to establishment of CRRT was 50 (42)h. Mean creatinine level prior to hospital discharge was 168 (93)micromol/l. Thirty-day mortality was 42%. Significant risk factors for death were complex procedures (odds ratio=9.9), gastro-intestinal complications (OR=7.2), cross-clamp time over 88min (OR=5.9), re-exploration (OR=4.0) and patients age over 75 years (OR=3.3). Actuarial 1 and 5-year survivals (95% CI) were 53 (43, 63) % and 52 (42, 62) %, respectively. Only 2 (2.2%) patients required long term renal support. CONCLUSIONS: Acute renal failure necessitating the use of CRRT is a rare but serious complication post cardiopulmonary bypass. In the long-term, surviving patients are not likely to require further renal support.

Acute Kidney Injury↗
PubMed2003

Repeated challenge with prion disease: the risk of infection and impact on incubation period.

Natural exposure to prion disease is likely to occur throughout successive challenges, yet most experiments focus on single large doses of infectious material. We analyze the results from an experiment in which rodents were exposed to multiple doses of feed contaminated with the scrapie agent. We formally define hypotheses for how the doses combine in terms of statistical models. The competing hypotheses are that only the total dose of infectivity is important (cumulative model), doses act independently, or a general alternative that interaction between successive doses occurs (to raise or lower the risk of infection). We provide sample size calculations to distinguish these hypotheses. In the experiment, a fixed total dose has a significantly reduced probability of causing infection if the material is presented as multiple challenges, and as the time between challenges lengthens. Incubation periods are shorter and less variable if all material is consumed on one occasion. We show that the probability of infection is inconsistent with the hypothesis that each dose acts as a cumulative or independent challenge. The incubation periods are inconsistent with the independence hypothesis. Thus, although a trend exists for the risk of infection with prion disease to increase with repeated doses, it does so to a lesser degree than is expected if challenges combine independently or in a cumulative manner.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Mutation rates: estimating phase variation rates when fitness differences are present and their impact on population structure.

Phase variation is a mechanism of ON-OFF switching that is widely utilized by bacterial pathogens. There is currently no standardization to how the rate of phase variation is determined experimentally, and traditional methods of mutation rate estimation may not be appropriate to this process. Here, the history of mutation rate estimation is reviewed, describing the existing methods available. A new mathematical model that can be applied to this problem is also presented. This model specifically includes the confounding factors of back-mutation and the influence of fitness differences between the alternate phenotypes. These are central features of phase variation but are rarely addressed, with the result that some previously estimated phase variation rates may have been significantly overestimated. It is shown that, conversely, the model can also be used to investigate fitness differences if mutation rates are approximately known. In addition, stochastic simulations of the model are used to explore the impact of 'jackpot cultures' on the mutation rate estimation. Using the model, the impact of realistic rates and selection on population structure is investigated. In the absence of fitness differences it is predicted that there will be phenotypic stability over many generations. The rate of phenotypic change within a population is likely, therefore, to be principally determined by selection. A greater insight into the population dynamics of mutation rate processes can be gained if populations are monitored over successive time points.

Bacteria↗
PubMed2002

A model for estimating total parasite load in falciparum malaria patients.

We describe an age-structured mathematical model of the malaria parasite life cycle that uses clinical observations of peripheral parasitaemia to estimate population dynamics of sequestered parasites, which are hidden from the clinical investigator. First, the model was tested on parasite populations cultured in vitro, and was found to account for approximately 72% of the variation in that sub-population of parasites that would have been sequestered in vivo. Next, the model was applied to patients undergoing antimalarial therapy. Using individual data sets we found that although the model fitted the peripheral parasite curves very well, unique solutions for the fit could not be obtained; therefore, robust estimates of sequestered parasite dynamics remained unavailable. We conclude that even given detailed data on individual parasitaemia, estimates of sequestered numbers may be difficult to obtain. However, if data on individuals undergoing similar therapy are collected at equal time intervals, some of these problems may be overcome by estimating specific parameters over groups of patients. In this manner we estimated sequestered parasite density in a group of patients sampled at identical time points following antimalarial treatment. Using this approach we found significant relationships between changes in parasite density, age structure and temperature that were not apparent from the analysis of peripheral parasitaemia only.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

BSE - a wolf in sheep's clothing?

The entire sheep flock in the UK has been threatened with slaughter if BSE is found in farmed sheep, largely on the grounds that an epidemic of BSE in sheep could be harder to contain than was the case for cattle, and that lamb could present a greater risk to consumers than beef. However, identifying BSE in a sheep is not straightforward, because of its similarities to the related disease, scrapie. Here, we review the likelihood that any UK sheep have BSE, how they might have got it, how a case could be identified and what the Government is doing in terms of surveillance and possible control methods.

Alleles↗