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Biomedical subjects

Milton C Weinstein

Publications and source records attributed to Milton C Weinstein.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Expanded HIV screening in the United States: effect on clinical outcomes, HIV transmission, and costs.

BACKGROUND: An extensive literature supports expanded HIV screening in the United States. However, the question of whom to test and how frequently remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: To inform the design of HIV screening programs by identifying combinations of screening frequency and HIV prevalence and incidence at which screening is cost-effective. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis linking simulation models of HIV screening to published reports of HIV transmission risk, with and without antiretroviral therapy. DATA SOURCES: Published randomized trials, observational cohorts, national cost and service utilization surveys, the Red Book, and previous modeling results. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. communities with low to moderate HIV prevalence (0.05% to 1.0%) and annual incidence (0.0084% to 0.12%). TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTIONS: One-time and increasingly frequent voluntary HIV screening of all adults using a same-day rapid test. OUTCOME MEASURES: HIV infections detected, secondary transmissions averted, quality-adjusted survival, lifetime medical costs, and societal cost-effectiveness, reported in discounted 2004 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Under moderately favorable assumptions regarding the effect of HIV patient care on secondary transmission, routine HIV screening in a population with HIV prevalence of 1.0% and annual incidence of 0.12% had incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 30,800 dollars/QALY (one-time screening), 32,300 dollars/QALY (screening every 5 years), and 55,500 dollars/QALY (screening every 3 years). In settings with HIV prevalence of 0.10% and annual incidence of 0.014%, one-time screening produced cost-effectiveness ratios of 60,700 dollars/QALY. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The cost-effectiveness of screening policies varied within a narrow range as assumptions about the effect of screening on secondary transmission varied from favorable to unfavorable. Assuming moderately favorable effects of antiretroviral therapy on transmission, cost-effectiveness ratios remained below 50,000 dollars/QALY in settings with HIV prevalence as low as 0.20% for routine HIV screening on a one-time basis and at prevalences as low as 0.45% and annual incidences as low as 0.0075% for screening every 5 years. LIMITATIONS: This analysis does not address the difficulty of determining the prevalence and incidence of undetected HIV infection in a given patient population. CONCLUSIONS: Routine, rapid HIV testing is recommended for all adults except in settings where there is evidence that the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection is below 0.2%.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Cost-effectiveness of an intervention to improve adherence to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected patients.

Adherence to antiretroviral medications has been shown to be an important factor in predicting viral suppression and clinical outcomes. The objective of this analysis was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a nursing intervention on antiretroviral adherence using data from a randomized controlled clinical trial as input to a computer-based simulation model of HIV disease. For a cohort of HIV-infected patients similar to those in the clinical trial (mean initial CD4 count of 319 cells/mm), implementing the nursing intervention in addition to standard care yielded a 63% increase in virologic suppression at 48 weeks. This produced increases in expected survival (from 94.5 to 100.9 quality-adjusted life months) and estimated discounted direct lifetime medical costs ($253,800 to $261,300). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the intervention was $14,100 per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with standard care. Adherence interventions with modest effectiveness are likely to provide long-term survival benefit to patients and to be cost-effective compared with other uses of HIV care funds.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Population-level changes in folate intake by age, gender, and race/ethnicity after folic acid fortification.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to quantify the impact of the 1998 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) folic acid fortification policy by estimating folate intake at the population level. METHODS: We analyzed total folate intake levels (from food and supplements) according to gender, age, and race/ethnicity, using data from 2 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. We measured pre- and postfortification folate intake distributions, adjusted for measurement error, and examined proportions of the population who reached certain thresholds of daily total folate intake. RESULTS: Mean daily food and total folate intake increased by approximately 100 microg/day after fortification. The proportion of women aged 15-44 years who consume more than 400 microg/day of folate has increased since fortification, but has not yet reached the FDA's 50% target and varies by race/ethnicity from 23% to 33%. Among persons aged 65 years and older who may be at risk for masking a vita-microg/day (the min B12 deficiency, the percentage who consume more than 1000 "tolerable upper intake level") has at least doubled among Whites and Black men, but has remained less than 5% for all groups. CONCLUSIONS: Since fortification, folic acid intake among the US population has increased, and there are substantial variations by age, gender, and race/ethnicity.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment in resource-poor settings--the case of Côte d'Ivoire.

BACKGROUND: As antiretroviral therapy is increasingly used in settings with limited resources, key questions about the timing of treatment and use of diagnostic tests to guide clinical decisions must be addressed. METHODS: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for a cohort of adults in Côte d'Ivoire who were infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (mean age, 33 years; CD4 cell count, 331 per cubic millimeter; HIV RNA level, 5.3 log copies per milliliter). Using a computer-based simulation model that incorporates the CD4 cell count and HIV RNA level as predictors of disease progression, we compared the long-term clinical and economic outcomes associated with no treatment, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis alone, antiretroviral therapy alone, and prophylaxis with antiretroviral therapy. RESULTS: Undiscounted gains in life expectancy ranged from 10.7 months with antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis initiated on the basis of clinical criteria to 45.9 months with antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis initiated on the basis of CD4 testing and clinical criteria, as compared with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis alone. The incremental cost per year of life gained was 240 dollars (in 2002 U.S. dollars) for prophylaxis alone, 620 dollars for antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis without CD4 testing, and 1,180 dollars for antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis with CD4 testing, each compared with the next least expensive strategy. None of the strategies that used antiretroviral therapy alone were as cost-effective as those that also used trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis. Life expectancy was increased by 30% with use of a second line of antiretroviral therapy after failure of the first-line regimen. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy, with the use of clinical criteria alone or in combination with CD4 testing to guide the timing of treatment, is an economically attractive health investment in settings with limited resources.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Cardiovascular disease prevention with a multidrug regimen in the developing world: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death, with 80% of cases occurring in developing countries. We therefore aimed to establish whether use of evidence-based multidrug regimens for patients at high risk for cardiovascular disease would be cost-effective in low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used a Markov model to do a cost-effectiveness analysis with two combination regimens. For primary prevention, we used aspirin, a calcium-channel blocker, an angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor, and a statin, and assessed them in four groups with different thresholds of absolute risks for cardiovascular disease. For secondary prevention, we assessed the same combination of drugs in one group, but substituted a beta blocker for the calcium-channel blocker. To compare strategies, we report incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), in US dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). FINDINGS: We recorded that preventive strategies could result in a 2-year gain in life expectancy. Across six developing World Bank regions, primary prevention yielded ICERs of US746-890 dollars/QALY gained for patients with a 10-year absolute risk of cardiovascular disease greater than 25%, and 1039-1221 dollars/QALY gained for those with an absolute risk greater than 5%. ICERs for secondary prevention ranged from 306 dollars/QALY to 388 dollars/QALY gained. INTERPRETATION: Regimens of aspirin, two blood-pressure drugs, and a statin could halve the risk of death from cardiovascular disease in high-risk patients. This approach is cost-effective according to WHO recommendations, and is robust across several estimates of drug efficacy and of treatment cost. Developing countries should encourage the use of these inexpensive drugs that are currently available for both primary and secondary prevention.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

The survival benefits of AIDS treatment in the United States.

BACKGROUND: As widespread adoption of potent combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) reaches its tenth year, our objective was to quantify the cumulative survival benefits of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) care in the United States. METHODS: We defined eras corresponding to advances in standards of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease care, including opportunistic infection prophylaxis, treatment with ART, and the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (pMTCT) of HIV. Per-person survival benefits for each era were determined using a mathematical simulation model. Published estimates provided the number of adult patients with new diagnoses of AIDS who were receiving care in the United States from 1989 to 2003. RESULTS: Compared with survival associated with untreated HIV disease, per-person survival increased 0.26 years with Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia prophylaxis alone. Four eras of increasingly effective ART in addition to prophylaxis resulted in per-person survival increases of 7.81, 11.05, 11.57, and 13.33 years, compared with the absence of treatment. Treatment for patients with AIDS in care in the United States since 1989 yielded a total survival benefit of 2.8 million years. pMTCT averted nearly 2900 infant infections, equivalent to 137,000 additional years of survival benefit. CONCLUSIONS: At least 3.0 million years of life have been saved in the United States as a direct result of care of patients with AIDS, highlighting the significant advances made in HIV disease treatment.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2006

Retrospective economic evaluation of a controlled trial of indomethacin prophylaxis for patent ductus arteriosus in premature infants.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of indomethacin prophylaxis in extremely low birth weight infants enrolled in the Trial of Indomethacin Prophylaxis in Preterms (TIPP). STUDY DESIGN: Participants in this economic evaluation were 428 infants enrolled at 9 Canadian TIPP centres. The study took a third-party payer perspective. Prior to the analysis of clinical trial data, direct medical costs were derived from chart review of 89 items of resource utilization, for each day from admission to hospital discharge. Unit costs for each resource were obtained from a provincially standardized cost-accounting system. Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed, with estimation of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves through non-parametric bootstrapping. RESULTS: The mean (SD) cost was $68,279 (40,317) for the placebo group and $69,629 (37,989) for the indomethacin group. Indomethacin prophylaxis cost an additional $67,500 per death or impairment averted. However, the precision of this estimate was low, such that the probability that the estimate was lower than $300,000 per death or impairment averted was only 61%. The results were similar when surgical costs were assumed to be 500% of those measured in the trial. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide an economic rationale for the use of indomethacin prophylaxis in ELBW infants.

Canada↗
PubMed2006

Identifying key parameters in cost-effectiveness analysis using value of information: a comparison of methods.

Decisions in health care must be made, despite uncertainty about benefits, risks, and costs. Value of information analysis is a theoretically sound method to estimate the expected value of future quantitative research pertaining to an uncertain decision. If the expected value of future research does not exceed the cost of research, additional research is not justified, and decisions should be based on current evidence, despite the uncertainty. To assess the importance of individual parameters relevant to a decision, different value of information methods have been suggested. The generally recommended method assumes that the expected value of perfect knowledge concerning a parameter is estimated as the reduction in expected opportunity loss. This method, however, results in biased expected values and incorrect importance ranking of parameters. The objective of this paper is to set out the correct methods to estimate the partial expected value of perfect information and to demonstrate why the generally recommended method is incorrect conceptually and mathematically.

Bias↗
PubMed2006

Cost effectiveness of hepatitis B vaccination at HIV counseling and testing sites.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent significant achievements in controlling hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, immunizing high-risk groups against the disease remains a public health challenge in the United States. The aims of this article are to evaluate the projected cost effectiveness of hepatitis B vaccination of adults attending two major types of publicly funded HIV counseling and testing sites (CTSs)-freestanding HIV CTSs and sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics, and to compare the cost-effectiveness of alternative vaccination and testing strategies in different subgroups in this population. METHODS: A decision model was developed to determine the economic and clinical consequences, from a societal perspective, of the following strategies in two hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 adults attending each type of site: (1) routine vaccination without screening, (2) screening for antibody to hepatitis B core antigen with an initial vaccine dose during the first visit, (3) screening and vaccination based on screening results, and (4) no intervention. Life expectancy, expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and medical care costs were estimated for each strategy and at each site. RESULTS: Routine vaccination was both more effective and more cost-effective than either screening strategy; under base-case assumptions, routine vaccination would cost $4400 both per QALY and per life year saved. Results for STD clinics were very similar in magnitude to those for freestanding CTSs. Results were most sensitive to clients' time and travel costs for return visits and the time-discount rate. CONCLUSIONS: Routine provision of hepatitis B vaccine at major HIV CTSs would be a highly effective and cost-effective approach to preventing hepatitis B among high-risk adults in the United States.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

The lifetime cost of current human immunodeficiency virus care in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to project the lifetime cost of medical care for human immunodefiency virus (HIV)-infected adults using current antiretroviral therapy (ART) standards. METHODS: Medical visits and hospitalizations for any reason were from the HIV Research Network, a consortium of high-volume HIV primary care sites. HIV treatment drug regimen efficacies were from clinical guidelines and published sources; data on other drugs used were not available. In a computer simulation model, we projected HIV medical care costs in 2004 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: From the time of entering HIV care, per person projected life expectancy is 24.2 years, discounted lifetime cost is Dollars 385,200, and undiscounted cost is Dollars 618,900 for adults who initiate ART with CD4 cell count < 350/microL. Seventy-three percent of the cost is antiretroviral medications, 13% inpatient care, 9% outpatient care, and 5% other HIV-related medications and laboratory costs. For patients who initiate ART with CD4 cell count < 200/microL, projected life expectancy is 22.5 years, discounted lifetime cost is Dollars 354,100 and undiscounted cost is Dollars 567,000. Results are sensitive to drug manufacturers' discounts, ART efficacy, and use of enfuvirtide for salvage. If costs are discounted to the time of infection, the discounted lifetime cost is Dollars 303,100. CONCLUSIONS: Effective ART regimens have substantially improved survival and have increased the lifetime cost of HIV-related medical care in the U.S.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗
PubMed2006

Cost-effectiveness of treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the existence of effective drug treatments, tuberculosis (TB) causes 2 million deaths annually worldwide. Effective treatment is complicated by multidrug-resistant TB (MDR TB) strains that respond only to second-line drugs. We projected the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of using drug susceptibility testing and second-line drugs in a lower-middle-income setting with high levels of MDR TB. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a dynamic state-transition model of TB. In a base case analysis, the model was calibrated to approximate the TB epidemic in Peru, a setting with a smear-positive TB incidence of 120 per 100,000 and 4.5% MDR TB among prevalent cases. Secondary analyses considered other settings. The following strategies were evaluated: first-line drugs administered under directly observed therapy (DOTS), locally standardized second-line drugs for previously treated cases (STR1), locally standardized second-line drugs for previously treated cases with test-confirmed MDR TB (STR2), comprehensive drug susceptibility testing and individualized treatment for previously treated cases (ITR1), and comprehensive drug susceptibility testing and individualized treatment for all cases (ITR2). Outcomes were costs per TB death averted and costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. We found that strategies incorporating the use of second-line drug regimens following first-line treatment failure were highly cost-effective compared to strategies using first-line drugs only. In our base case, standardized second-line treatment for confirmed MDR TB cases (STR2) had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 720 dollars per QALY (8,700 dollars per averted death) compared to DOTS. Individualized second-line drug treatment for MDR TB following first-line failure (ITR1) provided more benefit at an incremental cost of 990 dollars per QALY (12,000 dollars per averted death) compared to STR2. A more aggressive version of the individualized treatment strategy (ITR2), in which both new and previously treated cases are tested for MDR TB, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 11,000 dollars per QALY (160,000 dollars per averted death) compared to ITR1. The STR2 and ITR1 strategies remained cost-effective under a wide range of alternative assumptions about treatment costs, effectiveness, MDR TB prevalence, and transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of MDR TB using second-line drugs is highly cost-effective in Peru. In other settings, the attractiveness of strategies using second-line drugs will depend on TB incidence, MDR burden, and the available budget, but simulation results suggest that individualized regimens would be cost-effective in a wide range of situations.

Antitubercular Agents↗
PubMed2006

Packaging health services when resources are limited: the example of a cervical cancer screening visit.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence supporting the value of screening women for cervical cancer once in their lifetime, coupled with mounting interest in scaling up successful screening demonstration projects, present challenges to public health decision makers seeking to take full advantage of the single-visit opportunity to provide additional services. We present an analytic framework for packaging multiple interventions during a single point of contact, explicitly taking into account a budget and scarce human resources, constraints acknowledged as significant obstacles for provision of health services in poor countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a binary integer programming (IP) model capable of identifying an optimal package of health services to be provided during a single visit for a particular target population. Inputs to the IP model are derived using state-transition models, which compute lifetime costs and health benefits associated with each intervention. In a simplified example of a single lifetime cervical cancer screening visit, we identified packages of interventions among six diseases that maximized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted subject to budget and human resource constraints in four resource-poor regions. Data were obtained from regional reports and surveys from the World Health Organization, international databases, the published literature, and expert opinion. With only a budget constraint, interventions for depression and iron deficiency anemia were packaged with cervical cancer screening, while the more costly breast cancer and cardiovascular disease interventions were not. Including personnel constraints resulted in shifting of interventions included in the package, not only across diseases but also between low- and high-intensity intervention options within diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our example suggest several key themes: Packaging other interventions during a one-time visit has the potential to increase health gains; the shortage of personnel represents a real-world constraint that can impact the optimal package of services; and the shortage of different types of personnel may influence the contents of the package of services. Our methods provide a general framework to enhance a decision maker's ability to simultaneously consider costs, benefits, and important nonmonetary constraints. We encourage analysts working on real-world problems to shift from considering costs and benefits of interventions for a single disease to exploring what synergies might be achievable by thinking across disease burdens.

Delivery of Health Care↗
PubMed2006

Recent developments in decision-analytic modelling for economic evaluation.

The past few years have seen rapid changes in the methods of decision-analytic modelling of healthcare programmes for the purposes of economic evaluation. This paper focuses on four developments in modelling that have emerged over the past few years or have become more widely used. First, no one optimal method for extrapolating outcomes from clinical trials has yet been established. Modellers may draw from a set of varied assumptions about survival extrapolation that encompass a range of possibilities from highly optimistic to extremely cautious. Secondly, the practicality and appeal of microsimulation as a method for analysing healthcare decision problems has increased dramatically with the speed of computing technology. Individual instantiations of a system are generated by using a random process to draw from probability distributions a large number of times (also known as Monte Carlo or probabilistic simulation). Microsimulation is moving in new directions, such as discrete-event simulations that simulate sequences of events by drawing directly from probability distributions of event times; this approach is now being broadly applied to model situations where populations of patients interact with healthcare delivery systems. Microsimulation modelling of transmission systems at the population level is also rapidly developing. Thirdly, model calibration is emerging as a new tool that may offer health scientists a means of generating important fundamental knowledge about disease processes. Model calibration allows evidence synthesis in which observations on observable quantities are used to draw inferences about unobservable quantities. The methodology of model calibration has advanced considerably, drawing on theories of numerical analysis and mathematical programming such as gradient methods, intelligent grid search algorithms, and many more. As a fourth issue, an area of extraordinary activity is in the use of transmission models to analyse interventions for infectious diseases, including population-wide effects of vaccination. Transmission models use differential equations to simulate, deterministically for the most part, transitions among infection-related health states. Only recently have modelling methodologies been combined so that cost-effectiveness analyses can consider explicitly not only the patient-level benefits of interventions but also the secondary benefits through transmission dynamics. Advances in technology allow more realistic and complex healthcare models to be simulated more rapidly. However, decision makers will not readily accept results from models unless they can understand them intuitively and explain them to others in relatively simple terms. The challenge for the next generation of modellers is not only to harness the power available from these newly accessible methods, but also to extract from the new generation of models the insights that will have the power to influence decision makers.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗
PubMed2006

Do drug formulary policies reflect evidence of value?

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent to which preferred drug lists and tiered formularies reflect evidence of value, as measured in published cost-utility analyses (CUAs). METHODS: Using 1998-2001 data from a large registry of cost-effectiveness analyses, we examined the 2004 Florida Medicaid preferred drug list and the 2004 Harvard Pilgrim Pharmacy Program 3-tier formulary, and compared cost-utility ratios (standardized to 2002 US dollars) of drugs with preferred and nonpreferred status. RESULTS: Few drugs on the formularies had any cost-utility data available. Of those that did, median cost-utility ratios were somewhat higher (less favorable) for Florida's preferred drugs compared with the nonpreferred drugs (25,465 dollars vs 13,085 dollars; P = .09). Ratios did not differ for drugs on tiers 1 and 2 of the Harvard Pilgrim formulary, although they were higher for tier 3 and for excluded drugs (18,309 dollars, 18,846 dollars, 52,119 dollars, and 22,580 dollars, respectively; P = .01). Among therapies reported to be cost-saving or to have cost-utility ratios below 50,000 dollars, 77% had favored status in Florida Medicaid and 73% in Harvard Pilgrim. Among dominated drug interventions (reported to be more costly and less effective than alternatives), 95% had favored status in Florida Medicaid and 56% in Harvard Pilgrim. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the paucity of published cost-utility data available to formulary committees. Some discrepancies prevail between the value of drugs, as reflected in published cost-utility ratios, and the formulary placement policies of 2 large health plans.

Boston↗
PubMed2005

Cost-effectiveness analysis of hypertension guidelines in South Africa: absolute risk versus blood pressure level.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is responsible for more deaths worldwide than any other cardiovascular risk factor. Guidelines based on blood pressure level for initiation of treatment of hypertension may be too costly compared with an approach based on absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, especially in developing countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a Markov CVD model, we compared 6 strategies for initiation of drug treatment--2 different blood pressure levels (160/95 and 140/90 mm Hg) and 4 different levels of absolute CVD risk over 10 years (40%, 30%, 20%, and 15%)--with one of no treatment. We modeled a hypothetical cohort of all adults without CVD in South Africa, a multiethnic developing country, over 10 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for treating those with 10-year absolute risk for CVD >40%, 30%, 20%, and 15% were 700 dollars, 1600 dollars, 4900 dollars, and 11,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. Strategies based on a target blood pressure level were both more expensive and less effective than treatment decisions based on the strategy that used absolute CVD risk of >15%. Sensitivity analysis of cost of treatments, prevalence estimates of risk factors, and benefits expected from treatment did not change the ranking of the strategies. CONCLUSIONS: In South Africa, current guidelines based on blood pressure levels are both more expensive and less effective than guidelines based on absolute risk of cardiovascular disease. The use of quantitative risk-based guidelines for treatment of hypertension could free up major resources for other pressing needs, especially in developing countries.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Should resistance testing be performed for treatment-naive HIV-infected patients? A cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data from the United States and Europe show a population prevalence of baseline drug resistance of 8%-10% among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients who are antiretroviral naive. Our objective was to determine the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of genotype resistance testing for treatment-naive patients with chronic HIV infection. METHODS: We utilized a state-transition model of HIV disease to project life expectancy, costs, and cost-effectiveness in a hypothetical cohort of antiretroviral-naive patients with chronic HIV infection. On the basis of a US survey of treatment-naive patients from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we used a baseline prevalence of drug resistance of 8.3%. RESULTS: A strategy of genotype-resistance testing at initial diagnosis of HIV infection increased per-person quality-adjusted life expectancy by 1.0 months, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 23,900 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with no genotype testing. The cost-effectiveness ratio for resistance testing remained less than 50,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year gained, unless the prevalence of resistance was < or =1%, a level lower than those reported in most regions of the United States and Europe. In sensitivity analyses, the cost-effectiveness remained favorable through wide variations in baseline assumptions, including variations in genotype cost, prevalence of resistance overall and to individual drug classes, and sensitivity of resistance testing. CONCLUSIONS: Genotype-resistance testing of chronically HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naive patients is likely to improve clinical outcomes and is cost-effective, compared with other HIV care in the United States. Resistance testing at the time of diagnosis should be the standard of care.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of co-trimoxazole prophylaxis in patients with HIV/AIDS in Côte d'Ivoire: a trial-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2000, WHO/UNAIDS recommended co-trimoxazole prophylaxis for persons at early stages of HIV infection (WHO stage > or = 2) in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for initiation of co-trimoxazole in Côte d'Ivoire. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis with an HIV simulation model using clinical and cost data from a randomized trial of co-trimoxazole in HIV-infected adults. METHODS: The study included HIV-infected patients in Côte d'Ivoire, with median age 33 years. Thirty-four percent were classified as WHO stage 2, 59% as stage 3, and 7% as stage 4. The mean CD4 cell count was 331 x 10(6) cells/l. The interventions were no prophylaxis, clinical criteria-based co-trimoxazole initiation (early: WHO stage > or = 2; late: WHO stage > or = 3), CD4-based co-trimoxazole initiation (< 500, < 200, < 50 x 10(6) CD4 cells/l). The outcome measures were life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The most effective strategy, initiation of co-trimoxazole prophylaxis at WHO stage > or = 2, increased undiscounted life expectancy by 5.2 months, discounted life expectancy by 4.4 months, and lifetime costs by US dollars 60, compared with no prophylaxis. Delaying prophylaxis initiation until WHO stage >or = 3 was less costly and less effective. All CD4-based strategies were dominated. The incremental cost-effectiveness of early versus late co-trimoxazole prophylaxis initiation was US dollars 200/year of life gained. Results were stable despite wide variations in plausible assumptions about bacterial resistance and the prophylaxis efficacy on co-trimoxazole-resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: For HIV-infected adults in Côte d'Ivoire, co-trimoxazole prophylaxis is reasonably cost-effective and most effective if initiated when WHO stage > or = 2. Early co-trimoxazole prophylaxis will prevent complications prior to antiretroviral therapy initiation and should be considered an essential component of care for early HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗