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N G Mitchell

Publications and source records attributed to N G Mitchell.

8 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Radionuclides in fruit systems: model prediction-experimental data intercomparison study.

This paper presents results from an international exercise undertaken to test model predictions against an independent data set for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit. Six models with various structures and complexity participated in this exercise. Predictions from these models were compared against independent experimental measurements on the transfer of 134Cs and 85Sr via leaf-to-fruit and soil-to-fruit in strawberry plants after an acute release. Foliar contamination was carried out through wet deposition on the plant at two different growing stages, anthesis and ripening, while soil contamination was effected at anthesis only. In the case of foliar contamination, predicted values are within the same order of magnitude as the measured values for both radionuclides, while in the case of soil contamination models tend to under-predict by up to three orders of magnitude for 134Cs, while differences for 85Sr are lower. Performance of models against experimental data is discussed together with the lessons learned from this exercise.

Cesium Radioisotopes↗
PubMed2005

Radionuclides in fruit systems: model-model intercomparison study.

Modeling is widely used to predict radionuclide distribution following accidental radionuclide releases. Modeling is crucial in emergency response planning and risk communication, and understanding model uncertainty is important not only in conducting analysis consistent with current regulatory guidance, but also in gaining stakeholder and decision-maker trust in the process and confidence in the results. However, while methods for dealing with parameter uncertainty are fairly well developed, an adequate representation of uncertainties associated with models remains rare. This paper addresses uncertainty about a model's structure (i.e., the relevance of simplifying assumptions and mathematical equations) that is seldom addressed in practical applications of environmental modeling. The use of several alternative models to derive a range of model outputs or risks is probably the only available technique to assess consistency in model prediction. Since each independent model requires significant resources for development and calibration, multiple models are not generally applied to the same problem. This study uses results from one such model intercomparison conducted by the Fruits Working Group, which was created under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) Program. Model-model intercomparisons presented in this study were conducted by the working group for two different scenarios (acute or continuous deposition), one radionuclide ((137)Cs), and three fruit-bearing crops (strawberries, apples, and blackcurrants). The differences between models were as great as five orders of magnitude for short-term predictions following acute radionuclide deposition. For long-term predictions and for the continuous deposition scenario, the differences between models were about two orders of magnitude. The difference between strawberry, apple, and blackcurrant contamination predicted by one model is far less than the difference in prediction of contamination for a single plant species given by different models. This study illustrates the importance of problem formulation and implementation of an analytic-deliberative process in risk characterization.

Cesium Radioisotopes↗
PubMed2005

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit.

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.

Fruit↗
PubMed2003

A model testing study for the transfer of radioactivity to fruit.

This paper compares predictions of the foodchain model SPADE with experimental data for the transfer of (134)Cs and (85)Sr to strawberry plants following acute foliar and soil contamination. The transfer pathways considered in this exercise included direct deposition to fruit, leaf-to-fruit, soil-to-leaf and soil-to-fruit transfers. Following foliar contamination, the difference between predicted and measured radionuclide activity values varied between a factor of 0.5-10 for fruit and 4.5-7 for leaf. Following soil contamination, the difference between predicted and measured values varied between a factor of 3-74 for fruit and 32-44 for leaf. In all cases the difference between measured and predicted values was smaller for (85)Sr than (134)Cs. Measured and predicted activities were higher for leaf than fruit. Both measured and predicted (134)Cs concentrations in fruit and leaf are higher when deposition occurs at ripening than at anthesis. These results confirm the need for more data on fruit, even for Cs and Sr, to support models in predicting the transfer of radionuclides to fruit crops. Ongoing research projects funded by the UK Food Standards Agency aim to provide some data on radionuclide transfer to herbaceous, shrub and tree fruits, which will help improve radiological assessment models in order to provide better protection for consumers.

Cesium Radioisotopes↗
PubMed2001

Models for radionuclide transfer to fruits and data requirements.

This paper presents a review of available models for radionuclide transfer to fruit with particular emphasis on the model types and the purpose for which they were developed. It is clear that the model structures that have been developed range from the simple to the complex and that the underlying data on which they are based is incomplete. The work programme of the BIOMASS Theme 3 Fruits Working Group includes model inter-comparison and model validation studies that will give an indication of the performance of the different model types discussed here. The models included in these comparative studies include several new and as yet unpublished models. In the case of fruit, there is an urgent need for data on changing radionuclide distribution in plant organs with time to increase confidence in current models.

Data Collection↗
PubMed1989

Transfer of caesium from silage to cows milk: observations and models.

The transfer of radiocaesium from silage, contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident, to cows milk was studied in a feeding trial at Trawsgoed Experimental Husbandry Farm. Feed and milk samples obtained from the cows were analysed for Cs-137 and Cs-134 during the 124 days cows were fed contaminated silage and for a further 32 days when cows were fed uncontaminated material. The trial also involved the addition of bentonite supplements to the diet of some animals. Supplements of 250 g and 500 g sodium bentonite per day reduced Cs-137 transfer factors to milk to 0.63 and 0.33 of the control values respectively after 78 days of feeding. No effects of bentonite supplementation on the absorption of other elements were detected. The results for animals not given a supplement are compared with the cow-milk model implemented in the SPADE suite of codes, using both default parameters and input data and parameters derived from the feeding trial. The model overpredicted observed milk concentrations by a factor of 2 to 3. Reasons for this and alternative models are discussed. The sensitivity of the model to parameter selection is also emphasized.

Accidents↗
PubMed1989

Transfer of radioactive caesium from soil to vegetation and comparison with potassium in upland grasslands.

The distribution and transfer of caesium and potassium between soils and vegetation has been investigated by field sampling and experimental studies on soils and vegetation typical of upland grassland in north west England. Total (137)Cs content to a depth of 0.05 m below root matt ranged from 13 000 to 18 000 Bq m(-2). This caesium content derives from three sources: the Windscale accident of 1957, weapons-testing fallout which peaked in the early 1960s, and the Chernobyl accident in May 1986. From 2200 to 6200 Bq m(-2) is attributed to the first two sources, and the remainder to Chernobyl. In December 1986, 23-78% of pre-Chernobyl (137)Cs was associated with soil underlying root matt and 0.5-5.5% was associated with vegetation. Plant/soil concentration ratios for pre-Chernobyl (137)Cs were in the range 0.5-6.5, the lowest values being associated with patches of Festuca/Agrostis turf. At the same time, 4-19% of (137)Cs deposited from Chernobyl was associated with vegetation, although higher values appeared in conjunction with the moss, Polytrichum commune. Corresponding total potassium contents were in the range 9.6-22 mg m(-2) to 0.05 m soil depth. Lower values were found at the wetter sites where, on average, 5.7% of the total potassium was present in vegetation. At drier sites the potassium content was higher and, on average, 8.9% was present in vegetation. Plant/soil concentration ratios ranged from 2.2 to 9.2. During accelerated growth of vegetation, on monoliths in glasshouse conditions over the winter of 1986/87, (137)Cs was transferred from soil and root matt to new growth, such that concentrations in fresh growth were similar to or higher than those observed in the field during December 1986. Removal of caesium by successive cuts resulted in up to 25% of the original estimated total being removed over a 240 day period. Increased concentrations coincided with the emergence of Carex sp. and Trichophorum caespitosum, as well as the development of Agrostis sp. and Festuca ovina. Observed Cs/K discrimination ratios, particularly for (137)Cs deposited from Chernobyl, were higher than previously reported in the literature. The experimental results were confirmed by field observations during spring 1987 and it is concluded that caesium deposited as a result of the Chernobyl accident will continue to be recycled in organic and low potassium soils.

Journal Article↗