Biomedical subjects

N Meade

Publications and source records attributed to N Meade.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed1988

A modified logistic model applied to human populations.

"The use of the logistic curve for forecasting human populations [in the United Kingdom] considered by Leach is re-examined. A modification of the use of the logistic curve is suggested, which changes the emphasis from fitting a logistic trend to providing a forecast logistic trend. The assumption, used by Leach, that the variance of the additive disturbance term is constant is replaced by a more realistic supposition that the variance of the proportional disturbance is constant. The forecasting performance of the modified logistic model is shown to be superior to that of the model used by Leach." A reply by Leach (pp. 496-7) and a response by the author (p. 498) are included.

Developed Countries↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Forecasting with growth curves: the effect of error structure.

"The main theme of this paper is an investigation into the importance of error structure as a determinant of the forecasting accuracy of the logistic model. The relationship between the variance of the disturbance term and forecasting accuracy is examined empirically. A general local logistic model is developed as a vehicle to be used in this investigation. Some brief comments are made on the assumptions about error structure, implicit or explicit, in the literature." The results suggest that "the variance of the disturbance term, when using the logistic to forecast human populations, is proportional to at least the square of population size."

Forecasting↗