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N Thompson Hobbs

Publications and source records attributed to N Thompson Hobbs.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Spatial context influences patch residence time in foraging hierarchies.

Understanding responses of organisms to spatial heterogeneity in resources has emerged as a fundamentally important challenge in contemporary ecology. We examined responses of foraging herbivores to multi-scale heterogeneity in plants. We asked the question, "Is the behavior observed at coarse scales in a patch hierarchy the collective outcome of fine scale behaviors or, alternatively, does the spatial context at coarse scales entrain fine scale behavior?" To address this question we created a nested, two-level patch hierarchy. We examined the effects of the spatial context surrounding a patch on the amount of time herbivores resided in the patch. We developed a set of competing models predicting residence time as a function of the mass of plants contained in a patch and the distance between patches and examined the strength of evidence in our observations for these models. Models that included patch mass and inter-patch distance as independent variables successfully predicted observed residence times (bears: r (2)=0.67-0.76 and mule deer: r (2)=0.33-0.55). Residence times of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) responded to the spatial context surrounding a patch. Evidence ratios of Akaike weights demonstrated that models containing effects of higher levels in the hierarchy on residence time at lower levels received up to 34 times more support in the data than models that failed to consider the higher level context for grizzly bears and up to 48 times more support for mule deer. We conclude that foraging by large herbivores is influenced by more than one level of heterogeneity in patch hierarchies and that simple empirical models offer a viable alternative to optimal foraging models for the prediction of patch residence times.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Alternatives to statistical hypothesis testing in ecology: a guide to self teaching.

Statistical methods emphasizing formal hypothesis testing have dominated the analyses used by ecologists to gain insight from data. Here, we review alternatives to hypothesis testing including techniques for parameter estimation and model selection using likelihood and Bayesian techniques. These methods emphasize evaluation of weight of evidence for multiple hypotheses, multimodel inference, and use of prior information in analysis. We provide a tutorial for maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters and model selection using information theoretics, including a brief treatment of procedures for model comparison, model averaging, and use of data from multiple sources. We discuss the advantages of likelihood estimation, Bayesian analysis, and meta-analysis as ways to accumulate understanding across multiple studies. These statistical methods hold promise for new insight in ecology by encouraging thoughtful model building as part of inquiry, providing a unified framework for the empirical analysis of theoretical models, and by facilitating the formal accumulation of evidence bearing on fundamental questions.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

Spatial and temporal variability modify density dependence in populations of large herbivores.

A central challenge in ecology is to understand the interplay of internal and external controls on the growth of populations. We examined the effects of temporal variation in weather and spatial variation in vegetation on the strength of density dependence in populations of large herbivores. We fit three subsets of the model ln(Nt) = a + (1 + b) x ln(N(t-1)) + c x ln(N(t-2)) to five time series of estimates (Nt) of abundance of ungulates in the Rocky Mountains, USA. The strength of density dependence was estimated by the magnitude of the coefficient b. We regressed the estimates of b on indices of temporal heterogeneity in weather and spatial heterogeneity in resources. The 95% posterior intervals of the slopes of these regressions showed that temporal heterogeneity strengthened density-dependent feedbacks to population growth, whereas spatial heterogeneity weakened them. This finding offers the first empirical evidence that density dependence responds in different ways to spatial heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Linking chronic wasting disease to mule deer movement scales: a hierarchical Bayesian approach.

Observed spatial patterns in natural systems may result from processes acting across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although spatially explicit data on processes that generate ecological patterns, such as the distribution of disease over a landscape, are frequently unavailable, information about the scales over which processes operate can be used to understand the link between pattern and process. Our goal was to identify scales of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) movement and mixing that exerted the greatest influence on the spatial pattern of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in northcentral Colorado, USA. We hypothesized that three scales of mixing (individual, winter subpopulation, or summer subpopulation) might control spatial variation in disease prevalence. We developed a fully Bayesian hierarchical model to compare the strength of evidence for each mixing scale. We found strong evidence that the finest mixing scale corresponded best to the spatial distribution of CWD infection. There was also evidence that land ownership and habitat use play a role in exacerbating the disease, along with the known effects of sex and age. Our analysis demonstrates how information on the scales of spatial processes that generate observed patterns can be used to gain insight when process data are sparse or unavailable.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed2006

Dynamics of prion disease transmission in mule deer.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a contagious prion disease of the deer family, has the potential to severely harm deer populations and disrupt ecosystems where deer occur in abundance. Consequently, understanding the dynamics of this emerging infectious disease, and particularly the dynamics of its transmission, has emerged as an important challenge for contemporary ecologists and wildlife managers. Although CWD is contagious among deer, the relative importance of pathways for its transmission remains unclear. We developed seven competing models, and then used data from two CWD outbreaks in captive mule deer and model selection to compare them. We found that models portraying indirect transmission through the environment had 3.8 times more support in the data than models representing transmission by direct contact between infected and susceptible deer. Model-averaged estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) were 1.3 or greater, indicating likely local persistence of CWD in natural populations under conditions resembling those we studied. Our findings demonstrate the apparent importance of indirect, environmental transmission in CWD and the challenges this presents for controlling the disease.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Large herbivores influence the composition and diversity of shrub-steppe communities in the Rocky Mountains, USA.

It is widely believed that wild and domestic herbivores have modified the structure and composition of arid and semi-arid plant communities of western North America, but these beliefs have rarely been tested in long-term, well-replicated studies. We examined the effects of removing large herbivores from semi-arid shrublands for 40-50 years using 17 fenced exclosures in western Colorado, USA. Shrub cover was greater (F=5.87, P=0.0020) and cover (F=3.01, P=0.0601) and frequency (F=3.89, P=0.0211) of forbs was less inside the exclosures (protected) relative to grazed plots. However, we found no significant effects (minimum P=0.18) of protection from grazing on cover or frequency of grasses, biotic crusts, or bare soil. Although mean species richness and diversity were similar between treatments, protected areas had much higher dominance by fewer species, primarily sagebrush. Exclusion of herbivores changed the relationship between species richness and evenness. Consistent with theoretical expectations, species evenness was positively correlated with richness in protected plots (r2=0.54). However, contrary to theory, evenness and richness were inversely related in grazed plots (r2adjacent=0.72, r2distant=0.84). We suggest that these differences resulted because grazing acts as a stressor promoting facilitative relationships between plant species that might compete for resources in the absence of grazing. We conclude that exclusion of grazing in the sites we studied caused minor changes in cover and diversity of herbaceous plants, but caused a clear increase in the cover of shrubs. Importantly, the exclusion of ungulates changed the relationship between evenness and richness.

Altitude↗
PubMed2002

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

An ecosystem approach to population management of ungulates.

Harvest objectives for wild ungulates have traditionally been based on population models that do not consider ecosystem effects of ungulate herbivory, nor interactions between native and domestic ungulate species. There is a need for ecosystem models to allow wildlife managers to evaluate potential ecosystem effects of management scenarios. The utility of the SAVANNA simulation model for estimating elk population objectives within an ecosystem context was demonstrated for North Park, Colorado, USA. Effects of different elk population levels were evaluated for range condition, elk and cattle forage, elk and cattle condition, forage and condition of mule deer and moose, plant production, and plant community composition. Analyses were based on 30-year simulation runs using variable, historical weather. Another set of analyses utilized stochastic weather patterns. For management scenarios using the historical climate pattern, increasing elk populations caused biomass reductions of palatable plant species, particularly on areas of high winter density, where mean leaf biomass of palatable shrubs declined from 26.97 g/m2 at 0 elk to 20.82 g/m2 at 4000 elk (3.73 elk/km2), a 23% decline. At population levels of 5000 elk (4.68 elk/km2) or greater, elk body condition declined sharply following a severe winter. The availability of palatable browse on critical winter range was likely the limiting factor. However, when random climate patterns were simulated for the same scenarios, the threshold level for density-dependent effects varied with climate, ranging from 2000 to 10,000 elk. We suggest that elk population levels from 4000 to 5000 animals represent a conservative population objective for the North Park elk herd. Also, increasing elk population levels appears to intensify intraspecific competition among elk, far more than interspecific competition with cattle. Resolution of elk-cattle conflicts is likely to be facilitated by managing elk distribution, rather than overall elk population levels.

Agriculture↗