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Nathan I Shapiro

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan I Shapiro.

15 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score predicts 1-year mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive performance for 1-yr mortality of the previously derived and validated Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PATIENTS: Consecutive adult (aged > or =18 yrs) emergency department patients presenting to an urban, tertiary care, university hospital were eligible if they had a clinically suspected infection as indicated by the decision to obtain a blood culture. The enrollment period was between February 1, 2000, and February 1, 2001. Of 3,926 eligible patient visits, 3,762 (96%) were enrolled and 3,102 unique first visits were analyzed. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 667 patients (21.5%) died within 1 yr. The unadjusted 1-yr mortality rates for the MEDS risk groups were: very low risk, 7%; low risk, 20%; moderate risk, 37%; high risk, 64%; very high risk, 80%. Using a Cox proportional hazard model that controlled for age, sex, and Charlson co-morbidity index, the 1-yr hazard ratios compared with the baseline very low-risk group were: low risk, 2.2 (1.7-2.9); moderate risk, 3.5 (2.7-4.6); high risk, 6.7 (4.9-9.3); and very high risk, 10.5 (7.2-15.4). The groups were significantly different (p < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Although the score was initially derived for 28-day in-hospital mortality, our results indicate that the MEDS score also predicts patient survival at 1 yr after index hospital visit with suspected infection. The score needs external validation before widespread use.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

National study of emergency department visits for sepsis, 1992 to 2001.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Epidemiologic data on emergency department (ED) patients with sepsis are limited. Inpatient discharge records from 1979 to 2000 show that hospitalizations for sepsis are increasing. We examine the epidemiology of sepsis in US EDs and the hypothesis that sepsis visits are increasing. METHODS: The National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey data (1992 to 2001) provided nationally representative estimates of frequency and disposition in adult ED visits for sepsis. Sepsis visits were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes; severe sepsis was defined as sepsis in conjunction with organ failure. RESULTS: Of 712 million adult visits during the 10-year period, approximately 2.8 million (0.40%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.33% to 0.46%) were related to sepsis. We found no significant increase in overall ED visits for sepsis from 1992 to 2001 (P for trend=.09). ED patients with sepsis were more likely to be elderly, non-Hispanic, and publicly insured and to arrive by ambulance compared with nonsepsis patients (all P<.01). The overall admission rate was 87% (95% CI 82% to 92%), with only 12% (95% CI 8% to 16%) of patients admitted to the ICU. The most frequent codiagnoses were pneumonia (13%), urinary tract infection (13%), and dehydration (11%). Severe sepsis accounted for 8% (95% CI 5% to 11%) of sepsis visits, for an annual incidence of 0.01%; 98% of patients with severe sepsis were admitted. CONCLUSION: In contrast to data from hospital discharges, ED visits for sepsis demonstrated no increase. Most ED visits for sepsis resulted in admission to non-critical care units.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Charlson Index is associated with one-year mortality in emergency department patients with suspected infection.

OBJECTIVES: A patient's baseline health status may affect the ability to survive an acute illness. Emergency medicine research requires tools to adjust for confounders such as comorbid illnesses. The Charlson Comorbidity Index has been validated in many settings but not extensively in the emergency department (ED). The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of the Charlson Index as a predictor of one-year mortality in a population of ED patients with suspected infection. METHODS: The comorbid illness components of the Charlson Index were prospectively abstracted from the medical records of adult (age older than 18 years) ED patients at risk for infection (indicated by the clinical decision to obtain a blood culture) and weighted. Charlson scores were grouped into four previously established indices: 0 points (none), 1-2 points (low), 3-4 points (moderate), and > or =5 points (high). The primary outcome was one-year mortality assessed using the National Death Index and medical records. Cox proportional-hazards ratios were calculated, adjusting for age, gender, and markers of 28-day in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Between February 1, 2000, and February 1, 2001, 3,102 unique patients (96% of eligible patients) were enrolled at an urban teaching hospital. Overall one-year mortality was 22% (667/3,102). Mortality rates increased with increasing Charlson scores: none, 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.4% to 8.5%); low, 22% (95% CI = 19% to 24%); moderate, 31% (95% CI = 27% to 35%); and high, 40% (95% CI = 36% to 44%). Controlling for age, gender, and factors associated with 28-day mortality, and using the "none" group as a reference group, the Charlson Index predicted mortality as follows: low, odds ratio of 2.0; moderate, odds ratio of 2.5; and high, odds ratio of 4.7. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that the Charlson Index predicts one-year mortality among ED patients with suspected infection.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Implementation and outcomes of the Multiple Urgent Sepsis Therapies (MUST) protocol.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the effectiveness of a comprehensive, interdisciplinary sepsis treatment protocol with regard to both implementation and outcomes and to compare the mortality rates and therapies of patients with septic shock with similar historical controls. DESIGN: Prospective, interventional cohort study with a historical control comparison group. SETTING: Urban, tertiary care, university hospital with 46,000 emergency department visits and 4,100 intensive care unit admissions annually. PATIENTS: Inclusion criteria were a) emergency department patients aged > or =18 yrs, b) suspected infection, and c) lactate of >4 mmol/L or septic shock. Exclusion criteria were a) emergent operation, b) prehospital cardiac arrest, and c) comfort measures only. Time period: protocol, November 10, 2003, through November 9, 2004; historical controls, February 1, 2000, through January 31, 2001. INTERVENTION: A sepsis treatment pathway incorporating empirical antibiotics, early goal-directed therapy, drotrecogin alfa, steroids, intensive insulin therapy, and lung-protective ventilation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 116 protocol patients, with a mortality rate of 18% (11-25%), of which 79 patients had septic shock. Comparing these patients with 51 historical controls, protocol patients received more fluid (4.0 vs. 2.5 L crystalloid, p < .001), earlier antibiotics (90 vs. 120 mins, p < .013), more appropriate empirical coverage (97% vs. 88%, p < .05), more vasopressors in the first 6 hrs (80% vs. 45%, p < .001), tighter glucose control (mean morning glucose, 123 vs. 140, p < .001), and more frequent assessment of adrenal function (82% vs. 10%, p < .001), with a nonstatistically significant increase in dobutamine use (14% vs. 4%, p = .06) and red blood cell transfusions (30% vs. 18%, p = .07) in the first 24 hrs. For protocol patients with septic shock, 28-day in-hospital mortality was 20.3% compared with 29.4% for historical controls (p = .3). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical implementation of a comprehensive sepsis treatment protocol is feasible and is associated with changes in therapies such as time to antibiotics, intravenous fluid delivery, and vasopressor use in the first 6 hrs. No statistically significant decrease in mortality was demonstrated, as this trial was not sufficiently powered to assess mortality benefits.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Do emergency department blood cultures change practice in patients with pneumonia?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Although it is considered standard of care to obtain blood cultures on patients hospitalized for pneumonia, several studies have questioned the utility and cost-effectiveness of this practice. The objective of this study is to determine the impact of emergency department (ED) blood cultures on antimicrobial therapy for patients with pneumonia. METHODS: We performed a prospective, observational, cohort study of consecutive adult (age > or =18 years) patients treated at an urban university ED between February 1, 2000 and February 1, 2001. Inclusion criteria were radiographic evidence of pneumonia, clinical evidence of pneumonia, and blood culture obtained. Blood cultures were classified as positive, negative, or contaminant based on previously established criteria. Additionally, data were collected on antimicrobial sensitivities, empiric antibiotic therapy, antibiotic changes, and reasons for changes. RESULTS: There were 3,926 ED visits with blood cultures obtained for any reason, of which 3,762 (96%) were available for review. Of these, 414 of 3,762 (11%) patients met pneumonia study inclusion criteria, and blood cultures identified 29 of 414 (7.0%) patients with true bacteremia. In the 414 patients, blood culture results altered therapy for 15 patients (3.6%) with suspected pneumonia, of which 11 (2.7%) patients had their coverage narrowed; only 4 (1.0%) patients had their coverage broadened because of resistance to empiric therapy. For the 11 patients with bacteremia whose therapy was not altered, culture results actually supported narrowing therapy in 8 (1.9%) cases, but this was not done. CONCLUSION: Blood cultures rarely altered therapy for patients presenting to the ED with pneumonia. More discriminatory blood culture use may potentially reduce resource utilization.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Barriers to the use of outpatient enoxaparin therapy in patients with deep venous thrombosis.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a clinical pathway for outpatient enoxaparin therapy in deep venous thrombosis (DVT) and then characterize its implementation and barriers to use. PROCEDURE: Single institution, prospective, observational study of consecutive adult emergency department patients (age > or =18 years) who had a diagnosis of DVT. A clinical pathway was created to facilitate outpatient therapy with enoxaparin, and then all patients with DVT were enrolled and studied. RESULTS: A total of 97/98 (99%) eligible patients were enrolled. Among 97 patients, 29 (30%) were successfully started on the outpatient enoxaparin therapy approach. Of the 68 (70%) patients not started on the outpatient therapy, 19 (20%) patients had contraindications to anticoagulant therapy, 33 (34%) had other indications for hospitalization, 6 (6%) were unable to reliably self-inject, and 10 (10%) patients had a primary care physician or emergency physician who rejected the outpatient approach. CONCLUSIONS: The establishment of an organized DVT pathway for outpatient enoxaparin may facilitate home therapy; however, there will remain reasons that make hospital admission unavoidable in some patients.

Ambulatory Care↗
PubMed2005

Serum lactate as a predictor of mortality in emergency department patients with infection.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Little is known about risk-stratification biomarkers in emergency department (ED) patients with suspected infection, and lactate is a biologically plausible candidate. We determine whether a serum venous lactate is associated with an increased risk of death in ED patients with infection. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study in an urban, academic medical center with 50,000 annual ED visits. A total of 1,278 consecutive patient visits met enrollment criteria between July 24, 2003, and March 24, 2004, and all patients were enrolled. Inclusion criteria were age 18 years or older, serum lactate level obtained, and admission to the hospital with an infection-related diagnosis. The main outcome measure was all-cause 28-day inhospital mortality and death within 3 days of presentation. RESULTS: Among 1,278 patient visits, there were 105 (8.2%) deaths during hospitalization, with 55 (4.3%) of 1,278 deaths occurring in the first 3 days. Mortality rates increased as lactate increased: 43 (4.9%) of 877 of patients with a lactate level between 0 and 2.5 mmol/L died, 24 (9.0%) of 267 patients with a lactate level between 2.5 and 4.0 mmol/L died, and 38 (28.4%) of 134 patients with a lactate level greater than or equal to 4.0 mmol/L died. Lactate level greater than or equal to 4.0 mmol/L was 36% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27% to 45%) sensitive and 92% (95% CI 90% to 93%) specific for any death; it was 55% (95% CI 41% to 68%) sensitive and 91% (95% CI 90% to 93%) specific for death within 3 days. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of ED patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of infection, our results support serum venous lactate level as a promising risk-stratification tool. Multicenter validation, as well as comparison of the lactate level with clinical predictors, needs to be done before widespread implementation.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Sex differences in the emergency department evaluation of elderly patients with syncope.

BACKGROUND: Current data suggest that 30%-50% of patients with syncope leave the hospital without a defined etiology of their syncopal event. Recent studies have shown significant differences in both presentation and therapy in women with coronary disease and congestive heart failure. METHODS: To assess the impact of sex on the frequency of syncope and the rate of identifying a specific etiology among elderly patients who present to the emergency department (ED), a retrospective chart review was performed during a 1-year period. Consecutive patients older than 65 years presenting with syncope to a large urban teaching hospital were enrolled. Inclusion criterion was documented loss of consciousness with no other obvious etiology of loss of consciousness such as stroke or seizure. Charts were screened for presenting history, ethnicity, sex, comorbid conditions, living circumstances, outpatient medication, and cardiac risk factors and outcomes including acute coronary syndromes, myocardial infarction, and death. RESULTS: During 1 year of observation, 7496 women (60%) of 12,401 patients over the age of 65 presented to our ED, and 219 (2.9%) of these met inclusion criteria for syncope. In comparison, 4905 (40%) men presented to the ED, 104 (2.1%) of whom had syncope (relative risk of syncope for women vs men, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.74). Men were more likely to have comorbid conditions including coronary artery disease (p < or = .01), prior myocardial infarction (p < or = .03), and diabetes mellitus (p < or = .03) than were women. No sex differences were noted in living circumstances, such as living alone, with assistance, or in an institution. Forty-two percent of patients received no diagnosis on discharge from the hospital. Sixty-nine of 147 women admitted (47%) had no etiology of their syncope as compared to 27 (32%) of men. The relative risk for no diagnosis in women versus men was 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.61). CONCLUSIONS: Considerable numbers of patients presenting to EDs with syncope remain without a diagnosis. Women, despite being less likely to have concomitant coronary artery disease or diabetes, are significantly more likely to present to an ED with syncope, yet less likely to be discharged with a defined etiology.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

A blueprint for a sepsis protocol.

Despite numerous advances in medicine, sepsis remains an unconquered challenge. Although outcomes have improved slightly over decades, the unacceptably high mortality rate of 30%-50% for severe sepsis and septic shock continues. However, after years of unsuccessful clinical trials, several investigations over the last few years have reported survival benefit in the treatment of sepsis. Physicians now have several proven therapies to treat sepsis, but have yet to implement them on a widespread, systematic basis. This led 11 international professional societies spanning multiple specialties and continents to come together to create the Surviving Sepsis Campaign. The product of their work is an international effort organized to improve care of patients with sepsis and includes consensus, evidence-based guidelines for care that improves survival in septic patients, and an action plan for change. Given the clear role of early identification and treatment in stopping the sepsis cascade, therapy must start early in the emergency department (ED) and continue throughout the hospital course. The first of the recommendations by the Surviving Sepsis Campaign is the aggressive resuscitation strategy of early goal-directed therapy (EGDT). EGDT is reported to reduce absolute mortality by a staggering 16%. The use of recombinant activated protein C was demonstrated to confer a 6% absolute survival benefit. Steroid supplementation in adrenal insufficiency produced a 10% benefit. Additionally, early and appropriate use of antibiotics remains a cornerstone of therapy. Although no randomized trial will be performed, the effects are undisputed. Finally, although predominantly intensive care unit therapies, tight glucose control and low-tidal-volume ventilation strategies have also led to improved survival. Armed with these new therapies, the medical community must rise to this call to action. Clinicians must change the approach to this disease, as well as the way the septic patient is viewed. Although complex and challenging, these therapies must be brought to the patient's bedside. We propose and describe the Multiple Urgent Sepsis Therapies (MUST) protocol as a practical way to implement a comprehensive treatment plan using available evidence-based therapies.

Anti-Infective Agents↗
PubMed2003

Isolated prehospital hypotension after traumatic injuries: a predictor of mortality?

In patients with traumatic injuries, prehospital hypotension that resolves by Emergency Department (ED) arrival is of uncertain significance. We examined the impact of prehospital hypotension (PH) in normotensive ED patients with traumatic injuries on predicting mortality and chest/abdominal operative intervention. A retrospective cohort study was conducted of consecutive patients undergoing helicopter transport to two trauma centers between 1993 and 1997. Outcomes were mortality and chest or abdominal operative intervention. Of 545 scene transports, 55 (10.1%) patients were hypotensive on ED arrival, leaving 490 normotensive ED patients. Of 490 patients, 35 (7%) had PH and 455 (93%) had no PH. Multiple logistic regression showed the PH group to have a relative risk for death of 4.4 (95% CI: 1.2-16.6, p < 0.03) and for chest or abdominal operative intervention of 2.9 (1.1-7.6, p < 0.03). In this study of normotensive trauma center patients, prehospital hypotension was associated with increased risk of mortality and significant chest or abdominal injury.

Ambulances↗
PubMed2003

The value of cardiac enzymes in elderly patients presenting to the emergency department with syncope.

BACKGROUND: Most patients admitted to the hospital from the emergency department (ED) with syncope do not have a myocardial infarction (MI), yet a common practice is to draw serial cardiac enzymes. METHODS: To assess the value of serial cardiac enzymes in elderly patients who present to the ED with syncope, a retrospective chart review was performed on consecutive patients aged 65 and older with syncope in an urban teaching hospital ED between July 1, 1998 and June 30, 1999. Charts were screened for presenting history, cardiac risk factors, testing, and outcomes including acute coronary syndromes, MI, death, and patients returning to the ED or admitted within 72 hours of discharge. RESULTS: 319 patients met the study criteria of syncope with confirmed loss of consciousness in the absence of seizure or stroke. 141 of 228 admitted patients (62%) had creatine phosphokinase (CPK) drawn and 5% of these had Troponin I (TnI). 3 of 141 patients, or 2.1% (95% CI [confidence interval]: 0.04%-6.09%), had positive cardiac enzymes during their hospitalization. CPK was positive in all 3, and TnI, drawn in 1 patient, was also positive. Two of these patients had chest discomfort and ST segment and T-wave abnormalities on electrocardiogram (ECG) in addition to a syncopal event. The third patient had dementia and could not recall the details surrounding her syncopal event. In addition, her baseline ECG demonstrated a left bundle branch block, limiting ECG interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac enzymes may be of little additional value if drawn routinely on elderly patients with syncope who are admitted to the hospital from the ED, unless they have other signs or symptoms suggestive of myocardial ischemia.

Aged↗
PubMed2003

Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score: a prospectively derived and validated clinical prediction rule.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were a) to identify univariate correlates of death in emergency department patients at risk for infection; b) to perform multivariate analyses and identify independent predictors of death; and c) to develop and internally validate a prediction rule that may be used in the emergency department to risk stratify patients into different risk groups to predict their mortality rate. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Emergency department of an urban university referral center. PATIENTS: Consecutive emergency department patients, aged 18 or older, who were at risk for infection, as indicated by the emergency department physician ordering a blood culture between February 1, 2000, and February 1, 2001. Of 3,301 eligible patient visits, 3,179 (96%) were enrolled. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome was 28-day in-hospital mortality rate. There were 2,070 visits in the derivation set, with 110 deaths (5.3%), and 1,109 visits in the validation set, with 63 deaths (5.7%). Independent multivariate predictors of death were terminal illness (odds ratio, 6.1; 95% confidence interval, 3.6-10.2), tachypnea or hypoxia (2.7, 1.6-4.3), septic shock (2.7, 1.2-5.7), platelet count <150,000 (2.5, 1.5-4.3), band proportion >5% (2.3, 1.5-3.5), age >65 (2.2, 1.3-3.6), lower respiratory infection (1.9, 1.2-3.0), nursing home residence (1.9, 1.2-3.0), and altered mental status (1.6, 1.0-2.6). The clinical prediction rule stratified patients into mortality risk groups of very low, 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-1.5%); low, 2.0% (0.8-3.2%); moderate, 7.8% (5.6-10%); high, 20% (13-27%); and very high, 50% (36.1-64%) in the derivation set. Mortality rates for the corresponding risk groups in the validation set were 1.1%, 4.4%, 9.3%, 16%, and 39%, respectively. The receiver operating characteristic area for the rule was 0.82 in the derivation set and 0.78 in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with suspected infection, this model identifies significant correlates of death and allows stratification of patients according to mortality risk. As new therapies become available for patients with sepsis syndromes, the ability to predict mortality risk may be helpful in triage and treatment decisions.

Age Distribution↗