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Nicholas J Gotelli

Publications and source records attributed to Nicholas J Gotelli.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

Predicting continental-scale patterns of bird species richness with spatially explicit models.

The causes of global variation in species richness have been debated for nearly two centuries with no clear resolution in sight. Competing hypotheses have typically been evaluated with correlative models that do not explicitly incorporate the mechanisms responsible for biotic diversity gradients. Here, we employ a fundamentally different approach that uses spatially explicit Monte Carlo models of the placement of cohesive geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous landscape. These models predict species richness of endemic South American birds (2248 species) measured at a continental scale. We demonstrate that the principal single-factor and composite (species-energy, water-energy and temperature-kinetics) models proposed thus far fail to predict (r(2) < or =.05) the richness of species with small to moderately large geographical ranges (first three range-size quartiles). These species constitute the bulk of the avifauna and are primary targets for conservation. Climate-driven models performed reasonably well only for species with the largest geographical ranges (fourth quartile) when range cohesion was enforced. Our analyses suggest that present models inadequately explain the extraordinary diversity of avian species in the montane tropics, the most species-rich region on Earth. Our findings imply that correlative climatic models substantially underestimate the importance of historical factors and small-scale niche-driven assembly processes in shaping contemporary species-richness patterns.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Comparison of bacterial communities in New England Sphagnum bogs using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP).

Wetlands are major sources of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases released during microbial degradation. Despite the fact that decomposition is mainly driven by bacteria and fungi, little is known about the taxonomic diversity of bacterial communities in wetlands, particularly Sphagnum bogs. To explore bacterial community composition, 24 bogs in Vermont and Massachusetts were censused for bacterial diversity at the surface (oxic) and 1 m (anoxic) regions. Bacterial diversity was characterized by a terminal restriction fragment length (T-RFLP) fingerprinting technique and a cloning strategy that targeted the 16S rRNA gene. T-RFLP analysis revealed a high level of diversity, and a canonical correspondence analysis demonstrated marked similarity among bogs, but consistent differences between surface and subsurface assemblages. 16S rDNA sequences derived from one of the sites showed high numbers of clones belonging to the Deltaproteobacteria group. Several other phyla were represented, as well as two Candidate Division-level taxonomic groups. These data suggest that bog microbial communities are complex, possibly stratified, and similar among multiple sites.

Bacteria↗
PubMed2006

Food-web models predict species abundances in response to habitat change.

Plant and animal population sizes inevitably change following habitat loss, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood. We experimentally altered habitat volume and eliminated top trophic levels of the food web of invertebrates that inhabit rain-filled leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Path models that incorporated food-web structure better predicted population sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only autecological responses to habitat volume, or models including both food-web structure and habitat volume. These results provide the first experimental confirmation that trophic structure can determine species abundances in the face of habitat loss.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models.

Matrix population growth models are standard tools for forecasting population change and for managing rare species, but they are less useful for predicting extinction risk in the face of changing environmental conditions. Deterministic models provide point estimates of lambda, the finite rate of increase, as well as measures of matrix sensitivity and elasticity. Stationary matrix models can be used to estimate extinction risk in a variable environment, but they assume that the matrix elements are randomly sampled from a stationary (i.e., non-changing) distribution. Here we outline a method for using nonstationary matrix models to construct realistic forecasts of population fluctuation in changing environments. Our method requires three pieces of data: (1) field estimates of transition matrix elements, (2) experimental data on the demographic responses of populations to altered environmental conditions, and (3) forecasting data on environmental drivers. These three pieces of data are combined to generate a series of sequential transition matrices that emulate a pattern of long-term change in environmental drivers. Realistic estimates of population persistence and extinction risk can be derived from stochastic permutations of such a model. We illustrate the steps of this analysis with data from two populations of Sarracenia purpurea growing in northern New England. Sarracenia purpurea is a perennial carnivorous plant that is potentially at risk of local extinction because of increased nitrogen deposition. Long-term monitoring records or models of environmental change can be used to generate time series of driver variables under different scenarios of changing environments. Both manipulative and natural experiments can be used to construct a linking function that describes how matrix parameters change as a function of the environmental driver. This synthetic modeling approach provides quantitative estimates of extinction probability that have an explicit mechanistic basis.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2004

A taxonomic wish-list for community ecology.

Community ecology seeks to explain the number and relative abundance of coexisting species. Four research frontiers in community ecology are closely tied to research in systematics and taxonomy: the statistics of species richness estimators, global patterns of biodiversity, the influence of global climate change on community structure, and phylogenetic influences on community structure. The most pressing needs for taxonomic information in community ecology research are usable taxonomic keys, current nomenclature, species occurrence records and resolved phylogenies. These products can best be obtained from Internet-based phylogenetic and taxonomic resources, but the lack of trained professional systematists and taxonomists threatens this effort. Community ecologists will benefit most directly from research in systematics and taxonomy by making better use of resources in museums and herbaria, and by actively seeking training, information and collaborations with taxonomic specialists.

Biodiversity↗
PubMed2004

The mid-domain effect and species richness patterns:what have we learned so far?

If species' ranges are randomly shuffled within a bounded geographical domain free of environmental gradients, ranges overlap increasingly toward the center of the domain, creating a "mid-domain" peak of species richness. This "mid-domain effect" (MDE) has been controversial both in concept and in application. Empirical studies assess the degree to which the evolutionary, ecological, and historical processes that undeniably act on individual species and clades produce geographical patterns that resemble those produced by MDE models. MDE models that resample empirical range size frequency distributions (RSFDs) balance the risk of underestimating and overestimating the role of MDE, whereas theoretical RSFDs are generally biased toward underestimating MDE. We discuss the inclusion of nonendemic species in MDE models, rationales for setting domain limits, and the validity of one- and two-dimensional MDE models. MDE models, though null models, are not null hypotheses to be simplistically rejected or accepted. They are a means of estimating the expected effect of geometric constraints within the context of multiple causality. We call for assessment of MDE on an equal statistical footing with other candidate explanations for richness gradients. Although some critics have categorically dismissed MDE, an overview of the 21 MDE studies published to date reveals a substantial signature of MDE in natural patterns and justifies continued work.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Community disassembly by an invasive species.

Invasive species pose serious threats to community structure and ecosystem function worldwide. The impacts of invasive species can be more pervasive than simple reduction of species numbers. By using 7 years of data in a biological preserve in northern California, we documented the disassembly of native ant communities during an invasion by the Argentine ant. In sites without the Argentine ant, native ant communities exhibit significant species segregation, consistent with competitive dynamics. In sites with the Argentine ant, native ant communities appear random or weakly aggregated in species co-occurrence. Comparisons of the same sites before and after invasion indicate that the shift from a structured to a random community is rapid and occurs within a year of invasion. Our results show that invasive species not only reduce biodiversity but rapidly disassemble communities and, as a result, alter community organization among the species that persist.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2002

Nitrogen availability alters the expression of carnivory in the northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea.

Atmospheric transport and deposition of nutrients, especially nitrogen, is a global environmental problem with well-documented consequences for ecosystem dynamics. However, monitoring nitrogen deposition is relatively expensive, monitoring stations are widely spaced, and estimates and predicted impacts of nitrogen deposition are currently derived from spatial modeling and interpolation of limited data. Ombrotrophic ("rain-fed") bogs are nutrient-poor ecosystems that are especially sensitive to increasing nutrient input, and carnivorous plants, which are characteristic of these widespread ecosystem types, may be especially sensitive indicators of N deposition. Botanical carnivory is thought to have evolved in nutrient-poor and well-lit habitats such as bogs because the marginal benefits accruing from carnivory exceed the marginal photosynthetic costs associated with the maintenance of carnivorous organs. However, the production of carnivorous organs can be a phenotypically plastic trait. The northern pitcher plant, Sarracenia purpurea, produces leaves specialized for prey capture and nutrient uptake (pitchers) and leaves that are more efficient at photosynthesis (phyllodia). We hypothesized that relative allocation to these two types of leaves reflects ambient nitrogen availability. We manipulated nutrient availability to plants with leaf enrichment and whole-plot fertilization experiments. Increased nitrogen, but not phosphorus, reduced production of pitchers relative to phyllodia; this result provided empirical support for the cost-benefit model of the evolution of botanical carnivory. Because this phenotypic shift in leaf production occurs in ecological time, our results suggest that S. purpurea could be a reliable and inexpensive biological indicator of nitrogen deposition rates. This suggestion is supported by field observations across a geographic gradient of nitrogen deposition.

Animals↗