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Nick Wilson

Publications and source records attributed to Nick Wilson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling.

AIM: To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918). METHODS: Historical morbidity and mortality data were obtained from the report of the medical officer for a large military camp. A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model was solved numerically to find a range of best-fit estimates for key epidemic parameters and an incidence curve. Mortality data were subsequently modelled by performing a convolution of incidence distribution with a best-fit incidence-mortality lag distribution. RESULTS: Basic reproduction number (R0) values for three possible scenarios ranged between 1.3, and 3.1, and corresponding average latent period and infectious period estimates ranged between 0.7 and 1.3 days, and 0.2 and 0.3 days respectively. The mean and median best-estimate incidence-mortality lag periods were 6.9 and 6.6 days respectively. This delay is consistent with secondary bacterial pneumonia being a relatively important cause of death in this predominantly young male population. CONCLUSION: These R0 estimates are broadly consistent with others made for the 1918 influenza pandemic and are not particularly large relative to some other infectious diseases. This finding suggests that if a novel influenza strain of similar virulence emerged then it could potentially be controlled through the prompt use of major public health measures.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

What potential has tobacco control for reducing health inequalities? The New Zealand situation.

In this Commentary, we aim to synthesize recent epidemiological data on tobacco and health inequalities for New Zealand and present it in new ways. We also aim to describe both existing and potential tobacco control responses for addressing these inequalities. In New Zealand smoking prevalence is higher amongst Māori and Pacific peoples (compared to those of "New Zealand European" ethnicity) and amongst those with low socioeconomic position (SEP). Consequently the smoking-related mortality burden is higher among these populations. Regarding the gap in mortality between low and high socioeconomic groups, 21% and 11% of this gap for men and women was estimated to be due to smoking in 1996-99. Regarding the gap in mortality between Māori and non-Māori/non-Pacific, 5% and 8% of this gap for men and women was estimated to be due to smoking. The estimates from both these studies are probably moderate underestimates due to misclassification bias of smoking status. Despite the modest relative contribution of smoking to these gaps, the absolute number of smoking-attributable deaths is sizable and amenable to policy and health sector responses. There is some evidence, from New Zealand and elsewhere, for interventions that reduce smoking by low-income populations and indigenous peoples. These include tobacco taxation, thematically appropriate mass media campaigns, and appropriate smoking cessation support services. But there are as yet untried interventions with major potential. A key one is for a tighter regulatory framework that could rapidly shift the nicotine market towards pharmaceutical-grade nicotine (or smokeless tobacco products) and away from smoked tobacco.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2006

Regulation of chicken contamination is urgently needed to control New Zealand's serious campylobacteriosis epidemic.

New Zealand's campylobacteriosis epidemic reached a new peak in May 2006 with the annualised national notification rate exceeding 400 per 100,000 for the first time, the highest national rate reported in the literature. The epidemic is estimated to cause at least 1 fatality a year, >800 hospitalisations, and >100,000 cases in the community, and cost the New Zealand economy 75 million dollars per annum. There is overwhelming epidemiological and laboratory evidence that fresh chicken is the dominant source of human infection. The seriousness of this epidemic justifies rapid, decisive action to reduce human exposure to this pathogen. There is good international evidence to support removal of fresh chicken from the food supply, with its reintroduction only when it can be shown to pose a very low risk to human health. Because freezing can substantially reduce Campylobacter levels, frozen chicken could be substituted to allow continued consumption of this popular food. Efforts to reduce Campylobacter colonisation of poultry flocks and contamination during chicken processing and distribution, along with continued consumer education, are important, but do not appear sufficient to control this epidemic in the short to medium term.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

What is the contribution of smoking and socioeconomic position to ethnic inequalities in mortality in New Zealand?

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates for Māori are twice those for non-Māori in New Zealand. We have assessed the contribution of tobacco smoking and socioeconomic position to these inequalities in 45-74-year-old census respondents during 1981-84 and 1996-99 (2.3 and 2.7 million person-years, respectively). METHODS: We used linked census and mortality cohort datasets with measures of socioeconomic position (household income, highest educational qualification, car access, labour-force status, and neighbourhood deprivation) and smoking (never, ex, current). We used direct standardisation to adjust for smoking and Poisson regression to adjust for socioeconomic position. FINDINGS: The apparent contribution of smoking to mortality differences between Māori and non-Māori non-Pacific people was greatest for women in 1996-99 (8% reduction in standardised rate difference); it had increased from 3% in 1981-84. The corresponding reductions in men were 5% in 1996-99 and -1% in 1981-84. The apparent contribution of socioeconomic factors to mortality differences between Māori and non-Māori non-Pacific was greatest for men (39% in 1981-84 and 37% in 1996-99) and increased over time for women (from 23% in 1981-84 to 32% in 1996-99). INTERPRETATION: Although small, the contribution of smoking to ethnic inequalities in mortality increased over time and might grow more during the next two decades if differences in smoking between ethnic groups continue to increase. Better measurement of socioeconomic position (eg, lifecourse measures, asset wealth) might increase the proportion of ethnic inequalities attributable to socioeconomic position, perhaps to about half. Action to redress socioeconomic gaps and control of tobacco use will both be important in reducing ethnic inequalities in health.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Patterns of sports sponsorship by gambling, alcohol and food companies: an Internet survey.

BACKGROUND: Sports sponsorship is a significant marketing tool. As such, it can promote products that pose risks to health (eg, high fat and high sugar foods) or it can promote health-supporting products (eg, sporting equipment and services). However, there is a lack of data on the proportion of sponsorship associated with "unhealthy" and "healthy" products and no methodology for systematically assessing it. This research aimed to explore this proportion with an Internet survey of sports sponsorship in the New Zealand setting. METHODS: A search methodology was developed to identify Internet-based evidence of sports sponsorship at the national level and at the regional and club level in one specific region (Wellington). The top eight sports for 5-17-year-olds were selected and products and services of sponsors were classified in terms of potential public health impact (using a conservative approach). RESULTS: Sponsorship of these popular sports was common at the national, regional and club levels (640 sponsors listed on 107 websites overall). Sports sponsorship associated with sponsors' products classified as "unhealthy" (eg, food high in fat and sugar, gambling and alcohol) were over twice as common as sponsorship associated with sponsors' products classified as "healthy" (32.7% (95% CI = 29.1, 36.5) versus 15.5% (95% CI = 12.8, 18.6) respectively). "Gambling" was the most common specific type of sponsorship (18.8%) followed by alcohol (11.3%). There were significantly more "alcohol" sponsors for rugby, compared to all the other sports collectively (rate ratio (RR) = 2.47; 95% CI = 1.60, 3.79), and for top male sports compared to female (RR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.05, 3.18). Also there was significantly more "unhealthy food" sponsorship for touch rugby and for "junior" teams/clubs compared to other sports collectively (RR = 6.54; 95% CI = 2.07, 20.69; and RR = 14.72, 95% CI = 6.22, 34.8; respectively). A validation study gave an inter-rater reliability for number of sponsors of 95% (n = 87 sponsors), and an inter-rater reliability of classification and categorisation of 100%. CONCLUSION: This study found that the sponsorship of popular sports for young people is dominated by "unhealthy" sponsorship (ie, predominantly gambling, alcohol and unhealthy food) relative to "healthy" sponsorship. Governments may need to consider regulations that limit unhealthy sponsorship and/or adopt alternative funding mechanisms for supporting popular sports.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

One year of smokefree bars and restaurants in New Zealand: impacts and responses.

BACKGROUND: New Zealand introduced a smokefree bars and restaurants policy in December 2004. We reviewed the data available at December 2005 on the main public health, societal and political impacts and responses within New Zealand to the new law. METHODS: Data were collected from publicly available survey reports, and from government departments and interviews. This included data on smoking in bars, attitudes to smokefree bars, bar patronage, socially cued smoking, and perceived rights to smokefree workplaces. RESULTS: The proportion of surveyed bars with smoking occurring decreased from 95% to 3% during July 2004-April 2005. Between 2004 and 2005, public support for smokefree bars rose from 56% to 69%. In the same period, support for the rights of bar workers to have smokefree workplaces rose from 81% to 91%. During the first ten months of the smokefree bars policy, there were only 196 complaints to officials about smoking in the over 9900 licensed premises. The proportion of smokers who reported that they smoked more than normal at bars, nightclubs, casinos and cafés halved between 2004 and 2005 (from 58% to 29%). Seasonally adjusted sales in bars and clubs changed little (0.6% increase) between the first three quarters of 2004 and of 2005, while café and restaurant sales increased by 9.3% in the same period. Both changes continued existing trends. Compared to the same period in 2004, average employment during the first three quarters of 2005 was up 24% for 'pubs, taverns and bars', up 9% for cafés/restaurants, and down 8% for clubs (though employment in 'pubs, taverns and bars' may have been affected by unusually high patronage around a major sports-series). The proportion of bar managers who approved of smokefree bars increased from 44% to 60% between November 2004 and May 2005. Bar managers also reported increased agreement with the rights of bar workers and patrons to smokefree environments. The main reported concerns of the national and regional Hospitality Associations, in 2005, were the perceived negative effects on rural and traditional pubs. CONCLUSION: As in other jurisdictions, the introduction of smokefree bars in New Zealand has had positive overall health protection, economic and social effects; in contrast to the predictions of opponents.

Commerce↗