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O J Skog

Publications and source records attributed to O J Skog.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2001

Alcohol and mortality: methodological and analytical issues in aggregate analyses.

This supplement includes a collection of papers that aim at estimating the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and various forms of mortality, including mortality from liver cirrhosis, accidents, suicide, homicide, ischaemic heart disease, and total mortality. The papers apply a uniform methodological protocol, and they are all based on time series data covering the post-war period in the present EU countries and Norway. In this paper we discuss various methodological and analytical issues that are common to these papers. We argue that analysis of time series data is the most feasible approach for assessing the aggregate health consequences of changes in population drinking. We further discuss how aggregate data may also be useful for judging the plausibility of individual-level relationships, particularly those prone to be confounded by selection effects. The aggregation of linear and curvilinear risk curves is treated as well as various methods for dealing with the time-lag problem. With regard to estimation techniques we find country specific analyses preferable to pooled cross-sectional/time series models since the latter incorporate the dubious element of geographical co-variation, and conceal potentially interesting variations in alcohol effects. The approach taken in the papers at hand is instead to pool the country specific results into three groups of countries that represent different drinking cultures; traditional wine countries of southern Europe, beer countries of central Europe and the British Isles and spirits countries of northern Europe. The findings of the papers reinforce the central tenet of the public health perspective that overall consumption is an important determinant of alcohol-related harm rates. However, there is a variation across country groups in alcohol effects, particularly those on violent deaths, that indicates the potential importance of drinking patterns. There is no support for the notion that increases in per capita consumption have any cardioprotective effects at the population level.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed2001

Alcohol consumption and overall accident mortality in 14 European countries.

AIMS: To evaluate the effects of changes in aggregate alcohol consumption on overall accident mortality in 14 western European countries after 1950, and to compare traditional beer, wine, and spirits countries with respect to the impact of alcohol. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The countries were sorted into three groups--traditional spirits countries of northern Europe, traditional beer countries of central Europe and wine countries of southern Europe. Gender- and age-specific annual mortality rates were analysed in relation to per capita alcohol consumption, utilizing the Box-Jenkins technique for time series analysis. All series were different to remove long-term trends. The results of the analyses in individual countries were pooled within each group of countries to increase the statistical power. MEASUREMENTS: Overall accident mortality data for 5-year age groups were converted to gender and age specific mortality rates in the age groups 15-29, 30-49 and 50-69 years. Rates were age adjusted within groups. Data on per capita alcohol consumption were converted to consumption per inhabitant 15 years and older. FINDINGS: The analyses demonstrated a statistically significant and positive relationship between changes in aggregate alcohol consumption in all three groups of countries. The estimated effect parameter was larger in northern Europe than in central Europe, and smallest in southern Europe. CONCLUSION: The results are compatible with the hypothesis that accident mortality rates are influenced by per capita alcohol consumption in southern, central and northern Europe. However, alcohol appears to play a larger role in northern Europe than in southern Europe.

Accidents↗
PubMed2001

Alcohol consumption and mortality rates from traffic accidents, accidental falls, and other accidents in 14 European countries.

AIMS: To evaluate the effects of changes in aggregate alcohol consumption on fatal motor vehicle traffic accidents, accidental falls, and other accidents in 14 western European countries after 1950, and to compare traditional beer, wine and spirits countries. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The countries were sorted into three groups. Gender-specific, age-adjusted annual mortality rates (15-69 years) were analysed in relation to per capita alcohol consumption, utilizing the Box-Jenkins technique for time series analysis. All series were different to remove long-term trends. The results of the analyses of individual countries were pooled within each group of countries to increase the statistical power. MEASUREMENTS: Overall accident mortality data for 5-year age groups were converted to age-adjusted mortality rates for the age group 15-69 years, using a European standard population. Data on per capita alcohol consumption were converted to consumption per inhabitant 15 years and older. FINDINGS: For male accidental falls, the analyses uncovered a statistically significant association with alcohol consumption in northern and central Europe, but not in southern Europe. Among females the association was insignificant in all regions. For male traffic accidents, significant relationships were uncovered in central and southern Europe, but not in northern Europe. Among females the effect was significant only in central Europe. For the remaining fatal accidents a significant relationship was found for north European males only. CONCLUSION: The association between aggregate alcohol consumption and rates of fatal accidents is mainly due to traffic accidents in central and southern Europe, and to falls and other accidents in northern Europe.

Accidental Falls↗
PubMed2000

Addicts' choice.

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Alcoholism↗
PubMed2000

An experimental study of a change from over-the-counter to self-service sales of alcoholic beverages in monopoly outlets.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if a change from over-the-counter to self-service sales of alcoholic beverages in monopoly outlets has an impact on the sales volume. METHOD: Fourteen Swedish towns were selected, each having only one state-run monopoly shop selling alcoholic beverages. Seven pairs were formed by matching towns in terms of demographic and economic criteria, and according to sales of alcoholic beverages. Within each pair, one town continued with the traditional over-the-counter sales, while the other switched to self-service sales of beer, wine and spirits. This was decided by randomization. The effect of switching to self-service was evaluated by comparing monthly sales volume of experimental and control towns over an extended period of time. In order to evaluate changes due to transfer of customers from neighboring towns, the sales statistics in these towns were analyzed. In two towns, this transfer was also evaluated with the aid of customer surveys before and after the change. RESULTS: It was found that the change produced an increase in sales volume of 17%. The increase was permanent. Approximately one half of the increase could be explained by an inflow of new customers from neighboring towns. CONCLUSIONS: The self-service shops became quite popular among the customers, and sales volume increased substantially. About one half of the increase appears to be due to new customers from neighboring towns. The remaining increase may be due to increased consumption by the local residents. Thus, the results seem to confirm the hypothesis that the physical availability of alcoholic beverages may affect consumption levels.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed1999

The prevention paradox revisited.

The contribution of heavy and moderate drinkers, respectively, to the rate of alcohol problems in society is evaluated for different types of risk functions. It is demonstrated that if the risk function is linear, the moderate drinkers will be responsible for the bulk of the problems. When the risk function is curved upwards, the heavy drinkers contribute a larger share of the problem. However, the risk function needs to be quite strongly curved before the majority of the problems can be attributed to the heavy drinkers. These calculations are based on certain empirically motivated assumptions about the distribution of the consumers along the consumption scale. The results suggest that the validity of the prevention paradox depends very much on the shape of the risk function, and hence that the role of the moderate drinkers may vary a lot across the spectrum of alcohol-related disabilities. For disabilities where the risk curve has a pronounced threshold-like form, the prevention paradox cannot be expected to apply. However, the role of the moderate drinker could be expected to be more significant for disabilities with a smoother and less convex risk curve. Accidents and social problems seem to fulfil the latter qualification, because the causal mechanism underlying such problems are connected to rates of acute intoxication, rather than to annual intake per se.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed1996

Public health consequences of the J-curve hypothesis of alcohol problems.

This paper addresses some issues related to the hypothesis that the risk for premature death is a J-shaped function of alcohol intake. The first part of the paper contains a discussion of the individual level epidemiological evidence. It is argued that the evidence is not yet good enough to allow precise statements about "safe limits", nor does it allow a precise location of the "optimum" consumption level. Measurement errors and confounding variables not yet controlled for remain substantial problems. In particular, future studies need to control for social integration, as this factor may affect both health status and alcohol consumption. The second part of the paper discusses the population level relationship. It is argued that, typically, what is optimum for an individual is too much for a population. Unintended side effects of major public health importance should be expected in this area. In the last section, a plea is made for aggregate level studies as a way of addressing the public health side of the issue.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Potential consequences from possible changes to Nordic retail alcohol monopolies resulting from European Union membership.

This paper projects the consequences of modifying or eliminating the current national alcohol retail monopolies in Sweden, Norway and Finland as a possible result of those countries' membership in the European Union (EU). First, the authors project absolute alcohol consumption in each country based on different possible changes in alcohol price and availability. Then they predict the future levels of alcohol-related problems likely to result from increased per capita alcohol consumption (Sweden and Norway only). All of the scenarios examined in this paper are expected to lead to increases in per capita alcohol consumption. The smallest increase in consumption would result from a partial elimination of the current monopoly and a modest reduction in alcohol prices. In that case, projected per capita consumption in Sweden for inhabitants 15 years and older would rise from 6.3 to 9.3 litres; in Norway, from 4.7 to 6.7 litres; and in Finland, from 8.4 to 11.1 litres. The greatest projected increase in consumption would result from a complete elimination of the state monopolies such that all beer, wine and spirits were sold in food shops, grocery stores and gasoline stations, along with a substantial drop in alcohol prices as a result of private competition within each country and increased cross-border alcohol purchases. That scenario would result in projected per capita consumption of 12.7 litres in Sweden, 11.1 litres in Norway and 13.7 litres in Finland. The authors project that a 1-litre increase in consumption would result in a 9.5% increase in total alcohol-related mortality in Sweden and a 9.7% increase in Norway. Further, alcohol-related assaults would increase by 9% in Sweden and 9.6% in Norway. A 5-litre increase in consumption would result in a 62% increase in alcohol-related mortality in Sweden and a 60% increase in Norway, and a 57% increase in alcohol-involved assaults in both countries.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed1995

Alcohol and suicide--the Portuguese experience.

An analysis of regional (18 regions) and temporal (1931-89) covariation of suicide rates and indicators of alcohol use and abuse in Portugal is reported. In the time series analysis, a positive relationship was found. An increase in per capita alcohol consumption of one litre is accompanied by a simultaneous increase in the male suicide rate of 1.9 per cent. This is comparable to what has been reported for France and Denmark, but considerably less than that found in Norway, Sweden and Hungary. In the regional data, there was a substantial negative correlation between the variables. However, after controlling for religious and family integration, the latter correlation became small and insignificant but still negative. A possible explanation is suggested for the different outcomes of the two analyses.

Alcoholism↗
PubMed1993

The tail of the alcohol consumption distribution.

The consumption containment rate (CCR), proposed by Taylor as a way of characterizing the upper tail of the alcohol consumption distribution, is analyzed and estimated from a collection of data sets from different countries. It is found that CCR curves for different countries are highly different at low consumption levels. However, at high consumption levels, they are remarkably similar across cultures. It is proposed that this may be due to cross-cultural similarities in heavy drinking careers.

Alcohol Drinking↗
PubMed1993

Alcohol and suicide in Denmark 1911-24--experiences from a 'natural experiment'.

In 1916-17, prices of alcoholic beverages increased dramatically in Denmark, and alcohol consumption decreased strongly. On the basis of this 'natural experiment', the effect of variations in per capita alcohol consumption on suicide rates is estimated, and compared to Norström's analysis of Danish data from the period 1931-80, as well as similar analyses from other countries. It is concluded that per capita alcohol consumption is probably related to the suicide rate in Denmark, but to a less extent than in some other countries.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1993

The development of alcoholics' and heavy drinkers' consumption: a longitudinal study.

Results are reported from two prospective longitudinal studies of heavy drinkers and alcoholics who have received treatment. The present study focuses on the drinking habits of subjects who have been interviewed four times after the end of treatment. The data uncover substantial changes in heavy drinkers' and alcoholics' consumption level over time, and these observed changes are only partly explainable in terms of measurement error and short-term fluctuations. Changes show signs of accumulation over time. This suggests that heavy drinkers' and alcoholics' consumption level is very unstable over longer periods. The signs of systematic progression are weak. No convincing evidence for loss of control is found, and neither is there convincing evidence for a strong and persistent progression towards heavier drinking. At all levels substantial changes are found, and these are nearly equally strong in both directions. It is concluded that the observed pattern of change more resembles an indeterministic (or stochastic) process than a systematic natural history of a disease.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

The validity of self-reported drug use.

Response errors in self-reported drug questionnaires are evaluated, with particular reference to incidence and prevalence estimates. A simple model of response errors is defined, and some analytical results are obtained from this model. By assuming independence of response errors at different points in time, estimates for response errors are obtained from panel data. The results suggest that while the frequency of false negatives may be larger than the frequency of false positives, the latter error may nevertheless produce large errors in prevalence estimates, particularly if the prevalence rate is small.

Alcoholism↗
PubMed1990

[Trends in alcohol-related damages in Norway].

Like most other countries Norway has experienced a substantial increase in alcohol consumption since world war II, particularly in the 1960s and 1970s. This development has been accompanied by an increase in the prevalence of heavy drinkers, and an increase in the frequency of drunkenness. The effects on mortality rates have been substantial. It is estimated that alcohol-related mortality from diseases due to long-term abuse have increased fourfold since world war II. Violent deaths due to alcohol intoxication have increased too. Furthermore, the increase in crimes of violence experienced after the mid-1960s is partly due to the increase in alcohol consumption.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1989

The Norwegian injection mark study.

By examining persons arrested in Oslo during a certain period, we will try to obtain a better picture of intravenous drug abuse in Oslo. A pilot project was organized for 3 months during the autumn of 1987. In addition to having their arms examined, the arrestees were asked some questions about their abuse and HIV-testing. The paper presents some data from the pilot period: 35% of the arrestees had marks from intravenous drug abuse (almost 2/3 of the females and slightly less than 1/3 of the males); 78% of them were men, 22% were women; the majority were in the age range 21-35 years; 53% stated that they injected opiates, 35% that they injected stimulants and 12% that they injected both types. Nearly 80% stated that they had been HIV-tested. A larger proportion of users of opiates (88%) stated that they had been tested than users of stimulants (66%). The prevalence of HIV-seropositive cases among the arrested intravenous abusers was 13.8%. In the paper we also discuss methodological aspects of the study.

Adolescent↗