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O Papacosta

Publications and source records attributed to O Papacosta.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

The detection, treatment and control of high blood pressure in older British adults: cross-sectional findings from the British Women's Heart and Health Study and the British Regional Heart Study.

Among older people, the detection and control of hypertension is particularly important to reduce cardiovascular disease risk. This cross-sectional survey aimed to describe the detection, treatment and control of hypertension in older British adults. A total of 3059 women and 3007 men aged 60-79 years were randomly selected from general practice age/sex registers in 24 British towns and examined from 1998 to 2001. Of these, 52.6% women and 47.9% men had at least one indicator of hypertension (high blood pressure on examination, or taking antihypertensive medication or recalled a doctor diagnosis of high blood pressure). Among women, 50% of those with any indication of hypertension were on treatment and 29% were well controlled, and among men 45% were on treatment and 16% were well controlled. With the exception of alcohol use in men (adjusted odds ratio 0.67 (0.46, 0.98)), socioeconomic factors, area of residence and behavioural risk factors were not associated with good control among those with hypertension in either sex. Of those on treatment, 20.7% of women and 28% of men were on two classes of antihypertensive medication and 3.5 and 4.9%, respectively, were on three or more classes of antihypertensive medication. Among those with a doctor diagnosis of hypertension and taking antihypertensive medication, the proportion with well controlled blood pressure did not differ between those on more than one antihypertensive and those on just one in either sex. We conclude that targets of good control are rarely met in older individuals, who would benefit from the associated reduction in cardiovascular disease risk.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2005

Inequalities in coronary revascularisation during the 1990s: evidence from the British regional heart study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of age and social circumstances on probability of revascularisation among British men. DESIGN: Prospective population based study SETTING: 24 medium sized British towns, none of which contained a hospital undertaking coronary artery bypass surgery. SUBJECTS: 5814 surviving participants of the BRHS (British regional heart study), aged 52-73 years, with no history of revascularisation when responding to a questionnaire in November 1992. MAIN OUTCOMES: Incident coronary revascularisations, as documented in general practitioner records, over the following 7.1 years and coronary angiography investigations reported by men in a further questionnaire in November 1996. RESULTS: 160 men underwent at least one revascularisation during this period (4.2/1000 person-years). In multifactorial analysis, which included adjustment for incidence of major coronary heart disease or angina, a lower incidence of revascularisation was found among men aged over 65 years in November 1992 (hazard ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.44 to 0.87), among men with manual occupations (0.73, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.02), among men living in households possessing no car (0.44, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.80) or one car (0.60, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.87) compared with two or more cars, among council tenants (0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.97), and among men living outside southern England (0.71, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.99). Only car ownership was related to the incidence of diagnostic angiography: the odds ratio for angiography for those owning fewer than two cars was 0.62 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.89). CONCLUSION: During the 1990s, there were major inequalities in the probability of undergoing coronary revascularisation between British men according to socioeconomic status, age, and geographic location.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2002

Low prevalence of lipid lowering drug use in older men with established coronary heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and correlates of lipid lowering drug use among older British men with established coronary heart disease (CHD). DESIGN: Cross sectional survey within a cohort study (British regional heart study) carried out at 20 years of follow up in 1998-2000. SETTING: General practices in 24 British towns. PARTICIPANTS: 3689 men aged 60-75 years (response rate 76%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnoses of myocardial infarction and angina based on detailed review of general practice records. Lipid lowering drug use and blood cholesterol concentrations ascertained at 20 year follow up examination. RESULTS: Among 286 men with definite myocardial infarction, 102 (36%) were taking a lipid lowering drug (93 (33%) a statin); among 360 men with definite angina without myocardial infarction, 84 (23%) were taking a lipid lowering drug (78 (21%) a statin). Most men with documented CHD who were not receiving a lipid lowering drug had a total cholesterol concentration of 5.0 mmol/l or more (87% of those with myocardial infarction, 82% with angina). Fewer than half of men with CHD receiving a statin had a total cholesterol concentration below 5.0 mmol/l (45% of those with myocardial infarction and 47% of those with angina). Only one third of the men taking a statin were receiving trial validated dosages. Among men with CHD, a history of revascularisation, more recent diagnosis, and younger age at diagnosis were associated with a higher probability of receiving lipid lowering drug treatment. CONCLUSION: Among patients with established CHD, the prevalence of lipid lowering drug use remains low and statin regimens suboptimal. Major improvements in secondary prevention are essential if the benefits of statins are to be realised.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

Soluble adhesion molecules and prediction of coronary heart disease: a prospective study and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that circulating concentrations of soluble adhesion molecules are useful predictors of risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Larger studies are needed, however, to test this hypothesis. METHODS: We measured serum concentrations of four soluble cell adhesion molecules (intercellular adhesion molecule-1 [ICAM-1], vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 [VCAM-1], E-selectin, and P-selectin) in the stored baseline serum samples of 643 men with coronary heart disease and 1278 controls nested in a prospective sutdy of 5661 men who were monitored for 16 years. We also did a meta-analysis of previous relevant studies to place our findings in context. RESULTS: Concentrations of soluble adhesion molecules were significantly associated with one another, with other markers of inflammation, and with some classic coronary risk factors. For ICAM-1, the odds ratio for CHD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.32-2.14) in a comparison of men in the top third with those in the bottom third of baseline measurements after adjustments for age and town. This decreased to 1.11 (0.75-1.64) after adjustment for some classic coronary risk factors and indicators of socioeconomic status. For the three other cell adhesion molecules, the odds ratios for CHD, first adjusted for age and town only, and then additionally adjusted for other risk factors, were: VCAM-1: 1.26 (0.99-1.61) and 0.96 (0.66-1.40); E-selectin: 1.27 (1.00-1.61) and 1.13 (0.78-1.62); and P-selectin: 1.23 (0.96-1.56) and 1.20 (0.81-1.76). INTERPRETATION: The measurement of these adhesion molecules is unlikely to add much predictive information to that provided by more established risk factors.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

The effect of the C677T and A1298C polymorphisms in the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene on homocysteine levels in elderly men and women from the British regional heart study.

Total blood levels of homocysteine (tHcy) have been shown to depend on both environmental and genetic factors, and to be associated with the risk of developing atherosclerosis with its complications of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. In this study, 408 men and 346 women from two towns, Dewsbury and Maidstone were examined for tHcy levels and genotyped for the C677T and the A1298C polymorphisms in the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene. Blood tHcy was significantly higher in men from the CHD high risk town of Dewsbury (12.7 micromol/l) than in the low CHD risk town of Maidstone (11.5 micromol/l) P<0.001, but not in women (10.7 vs. 10.5 micromol/l), with women in both towns, thus, showing significantly lower tHcy than men. There was no difference between towns in folate or vitamin B12 levels but the conventional inverse relationship with tHcy was seen. Smoking men and women from both towns had significantly higher tHcy and lower folate levels than non-smoking individuals (P<0.001). The frequency of the 677T allele in Dewsbury was 0.35 (95% CI; 0.32-0.39) compared with 0.29 (95% CI; 0.26-0.32) in Maidstone (P<0.01). Similar frequency difference of borderline statistical significance was seen both for men (P=0.054) and women (P=0.048) in both the towns, suggesting a true regional frequency difference. The effect of the 677T on tHcy was highly significant in the group as a whole with the most profound effect seen in men (12.0 micromol/l for CC vs. 14.1 micromol/l for TT, P<0.001). By contrast, there was no significant effect of the A1298C polymorphism on tHcy, folate or vitamin B12 levels, with no evidence for an interaction with the C677T genotype. The regional differences in tHcy levels were still present after the adjustment for folate and vitamin B12 levels, smoking and the effect of the C677T polymorphism. This suggests that there may be other unidentified factors, either environmental or genetic, affecting tHcy levels, and thus potentially having an impact on the risk of developing hyperhomocysteinaemia and CHD. These observations may have a bearing on regional differences in tHcy levels and the variation in CHD risk between regions in the UK.

Aged↗
PubMed2000

Femoral atherosclerosis in an older British population: prevalence and risk factors.

Most estimates of the prevalence of peripheral atherosclerosis have been based on intermittent claudication or lower limb blood flow. The aim of this study was therefore to determine the prevalence of underlying femoral plaque, and to determine its association with other cardiovascular disease and risk factors. Presence of plaque was identified using ultrasound in a random sample of men (n=417) and women (n=367) aged 56-77 years. Coexistent cardiovascular disease, exercise and smoking were determined by questionnaire, blood pressure was recorded, and serum cholesterol and plasma fibrinogen were determined. Of the 784 subjects that were scanned, 502 (64%) demonstrated atherosclerotic plaque. Disease prevalence increased significantly with age (P<0.0001), and was more common in men (67.1 vs. 59.4%, P<0.05). Subjects with femoral plaque had a significantly greater odds of previous ischaemic heart disease (OR 2. 2, 95% CI 1.3, 3.7) and angina (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.03, 2.7), but not of stroke or leg pain on exercise. Current and ex-smoking, raised serum total cholesterol and plasma fibrinogen levels, but not blood pressure, were associated with an increased risk of femoral plaque, independent of age and sex. Frequent exercise and a high HDL cholesterol were significantly associated with lower risk. In conclusion, therefore, atherosclerotic disease of the femoral artery affects almost two-thirds of the population in late middle age. It is associated with an increased prevalence of ischaemic heart disease and angina, but whether detecting at risk individuals using ultrasound offers advantages over simpler and less expensive risk factor scoring requires evaluation in trials.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1999

Fibrinogen and factor VII levels are related to adiposity but not to fetal growth or social class in children aged 10-11 years.

Factors operating in fetal life or during childhood may be important in determining fibrinogen and factor VII concentrations in adult life, and particularly in explaining social gradients in cardiovascular disease risk. In 1994, the authors measured fibrinogen and factor VIIc levels in 641 children aged 10-11 years (61% response rate) from schools in five towns in England and Wales. Birth weight was obtained by maternal recall, and other data on measures of fetal growth were obtained from birth records. Fibrinogen levels were higher in girls (258.8 mg/dl) than in boys (245.4 mg/dl) (95% confidence interval (CI) for difference: 5.5, 21.5). Fibrinogen and factor VIIc levels were linearly related to adiposity, rising by 37.1 mg/dl (95% CI: 24.7, 49.5) and 13.0% of standard (95% CI: 6.3, 19.7), respectively, between the bottom and top quintiles of ponderal index (weight (kg)/height (m)3). Fibrinogen was independently related to heart rate (p < 0.001) and was negatively but nonsignificantly related to measures of physical activity. Factor VIIc was positively correlated with total cholesterol (p < 0.001). No relations were found with measures of fetal growth or social class. These data do not support the concept that fibrinogen or factor VII levels are determined in utero or by social factors in childhood. Adiposity and physical training appear to be the important determinants of fibrinogen and factor VII levels in childhood.

Adipose Tissue↗
PubMed1999

Carotid plaque, intima media thickness, cardiovascular risk factors, and prevalent cardiovascular disease in men and women: the British Regional Heart Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: B-mode ultrasound is a noninvasive method of examining the walls of peripheral arteries and provides measures of the intima-media thickness (IMT) at various sites (common carotid artery, bifurcation, internal carotid artery) and of plaques that may indicate early presymptomatic disease. The reported associations between cardiovascular risk factors, clinical disease, IMT, and plaques are inconsistent. We sought to clarify these relationships in a large, representative sample of men and women living in 2 British towns. METHODS: The study was performed during 1996 in 2 towns (Dewsbury and Maidstone) of the British Regional Heart Study that have an approximately 2-fold difference in coronary heart disease risk. The male participants were drawn from the British Regional Heart Study and were recruited in 1978-1980 and form part of a national cohort study of 7735 men. A random sample of women of similar age to the men (55 to 77 years) was also selected from the age-sex register of the general practices used in the original survey. A wide range of data on social, lifestyle, and physiological factors, cardiovascular disease symptoms, and diagnoses was collected. Measures of right and left common carotid IMT (IMTcca) and bifurcation IMT (IMTbif) were made, and the arteries were examined for plaques 1.5 cm above and below the flow divider. RESULTS: Totals of 425 men and 375 women were surveyed (mean age, 66 years; range, 56 to 77 years). The mean (SD) IMTcca observed were 0. 84 (0.21) and 0.75 (0.16) mm for men and women, respectively. The mean (SD) IMTbif were 1.69 (0.61) and 1.50 (0.77) mm for men and women, respectively. The correlation between IMTcca and IMTbif was similar in men (r=0.36) and women (r=0.38). There were no differences in mean IMTcca or IMTbif between the 2 towns. Carotid plaques were very common, affecting 57% (n=239) of men and 58% (n=211) of women. Severe carotid plaques with flow disturbance were rare, affecting 9 men (2%) and 6 women (1.6%). Plaques increased in prevalence with age, affecting 49% men and 39% of women aged <60 years and 65% and 75% of men and women, respectively, aged >70 years. Plaques were most common among men in Dewsbury (79% affected) and least common among men in Maidstone (34% affected). IMTcca showed a different pattern of association with cardiovascular risk factors from IMTbif and was associated with age, SBP, and FEV1 but not with social, lifestyle, or other physiological risk factors. IMTbif and carotid plaques were associated with smoking, manual social class, and plasma fibrinogen. IMTbif and carotid plaques were associated with symptoms and diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases. IMTbif associations with cardiovascular risk factors and prevalent cardiovascular disease appeared to be explained by the presence of plaques in regression models and in analyses stratified by plaque status. CONCLUSIONS: IMTcca, IMTbif, and plaque are correlated with each other but show differing patterns of association with risk factors and prevalent disease. IMTcca is strongly associated with risk factors for stroke and with prevalent stroke, whereas IMTbif and plaque are more directly associated with ischemic heart disease risk factors and prevalent ischemic heart disease. Our analyses suggest that presence of plaque, rather than the thickness of IMTbif, appears to be the major criterion of high risk of disease, but confirmation of these findings in other populations and in prospective studies is required. The association of fibrinogen with plaque appears to be similar to its association with incident cardiovascular disease. Further work elucidating the composition of plaques using ultrasound imaging would be helpful, and more data, analyzed to distinguish plaque from IMTbif and IMTcca, are required to understand the significance of thicker IMT in the absence of plaque.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1997

Flow-mediated dilation in 9- to 11-year-old children: the influence of intrauterine and childhood factors.

BACKGROUND: Early life factors, particularly size at birth, may influence later risk of cardiovascular disease, but a mechanism for this influence has not been established. We have examined the relation between birth weight and endothelial function (a key event in atherosclerosis) in a population-based study of children, taking into account classic cardiovascular risk factors in childhood. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 333 British children aged 9 to 11 years in whom information on birth weight, maternal factors, and risk factors (including blood pressure, lipid fractions, preload and postload glucose levels, smoking exposure, and socioeconomic status) was available. A noninvasive ultrasound technique was used to assess the ability of the brachial artery to dilate in response to increased blood flow (induced by forearm cuff occlusion and release), an endothelium-dependent response. Birth weight showed a significant, graded, positive association with flow-mediated dilation (0.027 mm/kg; 95% CI, 0.003 to 0.051 mm/kg; P=.02). Childhood cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, total and LDL cholesterol, and salivary cotinine level) showed no relation with flow-mediated dilation, but HDL cholesterol level was inversely related (-0.067 mm/mmol; 95% CI, -0.021 to -0.113 mm/mmol; P=.005). The relation between birth weight and flow-mediated dilation was not affected by adjustment for childhood body build, parity, cardiovascular risk factors, social class, or ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Low birth weight is associated with impaired endothelial function in childhood, a key early event in atherogenesis. Growth in utero may be associated with long-term changes in vascular function that are manifest by the first decade of life and that may influence the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease.

Birth Weight↗
PubMed1997

Size at birth and blood pressure: cross sectional study in 8-11 year old children.

OBJECTIVE: To identify which patterns of fetal growth, represented by different measurements of size at birth, are associated with increased blood pressure in children aged 8-11 years. DESIGN AND SETTING: School based, cross sectional survey conducted in 10 towns in England and Wales in 1994. SUBJECTS: 3010 singleton children (response rate 75%) with physical measurements and information on birth weight from parental questionnaires. Hospital birth records were examined for 1573. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Systolic and diastolic blood pressure at age 8-11 years. RESULTS: In the whole group birth weight was inversely related to systolic pressure (regression coefficient -1.48 mm Hg/kg; 95% confidence interval -2.20 to -0.76) after adjustment for current body size. There was no significant association between birth weight and diastolic pressure. The association with systolic pressure was much stronger in girls (-2.54 mm Hg/kg; -3.60 to -1.48) than in boys (-0.64 mm Hg/kg; -1.58 to 0.30), with a significant difference between the sexes (P = 0.006). Among the other neonatal measures, head circumference and placental weight were inversely associated with subsequent blood pressure in girls, and placental ratio (placental weight:birth weight) was positively associated with blood pressure in boys. Neither ponderal index at birth nor length:head circumference ratio was related to blood pressure in either sex. CONCLUSIONS: In these contemporary children the association between birth weight and blood pressure was apparent only in girls. There was no evidence that measures of size at birth, which may be related to nutrition at critical periods of pregnancy (thinness at birth or shortness in relation to head circumference), are related to blood pressure in the offspring.

Birth Weight↗
PubMed1997

Childhood size is more strongly related than size at birth to glucose and insulin levels in 10-11-year-old children.

In adults low birthweight and thinness at birth are associated with increased risk of glucose intolerance and non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. We have examined the relations between size at birth (birthweight, thinness at birth) and levels of plasma glucose and serum insulin in children, and compared them with the effects of childhood size. We performed a school-based survey of 10-11-year-old British children (response rate 64%) with measurements made after an overnight fast. One group of children (n = 591) was studied fasting while the other (n = 547) was studied 30 min after a standard oral glucose load (1.75 g/kg). Serum insulin was measured by a highly specific ELISA method. Birthweight was assessed by maternal recall and thinness at birth using birth records. Neither fasting nor post-load glucose levels showed any consistent relationship with birthweight or ponderal index at birth. After adjustment for childhood height and ponderal index, both fasting and post-load insulin levels fell with increasing birthweight. For each kg increase in birthweight, fasting insulin fell by 16.9% (95% confidence limits 7.1-25.8%, p = 0.001) and post-load insulin by 11.6% (95% confidence limits 3.5-19.1%, p = 0.007). However, the proportional change in insulin level for a 1 SD increase in childhood ponderal index was much greater than that for birthweight (27.2% and -8.8%, respectively, for fasting insulin). We conclude that low birthweight is not related to glucose intolerance at 10-11 years, but may be related to the early development of insulin resistance. However, in contemporary children obesity is a stronger determinant of insulin level and insulin resistance than size at birth.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

Effect of fresh fruit consumption on lung function and wheeze in children.

BACKGROUND: Fresh fruit consumption and vitamin C intake have been associated with improved lung function in adults. Whether this is due to enhancement of lung growth, to a reduction in lung function decline, or to protection against bronchospasm is unclear. METHODS: In a cross-sectional school based survey of 2650 children aged 8-11 from 10 towns in England and Wales the main outcome measure was forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) standardised for body size and sex. Exposure was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire to parents and by measurement of plasma levels of vitamin C in a subsample of 278 children. RESULTS: FEV1 was positively associated with frequency of fresh fruit consumption. After adjustment for possible confounding variables including social class and passive smoking, those who never ate any fresh fruit had an estimated FEV1 some 79 ml (4.3%) lower than those who ate these items more than once a day (95% CI 22 to 136 ml). The association between FEV1 and fruit consumption was stronger in subjects with wheeze than in non-wheezers (p = 0.020 for difference in trend), though wheeze itself was not related to fresh fruit consumption. Frequency of consumption of salads and of green vegetables were both associated with FEV1 but the relationships were weaker than for fresh fruit. Plasma vitamin C levels were unrelated to FEV1 (r = -0.01, p = 0.92) or to wheeze and were only weakly related to fresh fruit consumption (r = 0.13, p = 0.055). CONCLUSIONS: Fresh fruit consumption appears to have a beneficial effect on lung function in children. Further work is needed to confirm whether the effect is restricted to subjects who wheeze and to identify the specific nutrient involved.

Ascorbic Acid↗
PubMed1996

Cardiovascular risk factors in British children from towns with widely differing adult cardiovascular mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether cardiovascular risk factors differ in children from towns in England and Wales with widely differing adult cardiovascular death rates. DESIGN: School based survey conducted during 1994 in 10 towns, five with exceptionally high adult cardiovascular mortality (standardised mortality ratio 131-143) and five with exceptionally low adult cardiovascular mortality (64-75). Towns were surveyed in high-low pairs. SUBJECTS: 3415 white children aged 8-11 years with physical measurements (response rate 75%), including 1287 with blood samples (response rate 64%), of whom 515 had blood samples taken 30 minutes after a glucose load. RESULTS: Children in towns with high cardiovascular mortality were on average shorter than those in towns with low mortality (mean difference 1.2 cm; 95% confidence interval 0.3 to 2.1 cm; P = 0.02) and had a higher ponderal index (0.34 kg/m3; 0.16 to 0.52 kg/m3; P = 0.006). Mean systolic pressure was higher in high mortality towns, particularly after adjustment for height (2.0 mm Hg; 0.8 to 3.2 mm Hg; P = 0.009). Mean waist:hip ratio, total cholesterol concentration, and 30 minute post-load glucose measurements were similar in high and low mortality towns. The differences in height and blood pressure between high and low mortality towns were unaffected by standardisation for birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: The differences in height, ponderal index, and blood pressure between towns with high and low cardiovascular mortality, if persistent, may have important future public health implications. Their independence of birth weight suggests that the childhood environment rather than the intrauterine environment is involved in their development.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

Birth weight and blood pressure: cross sectional and longitudinal relations in childhood.

OBJECTIVE: To examine cross sectional and longitudinal relations between birth weight and blood pressure in childhood. DESIGN: Cross sectional study of primary school children aged 9-11 years, with analysis in relation to previous measurements at 5-7 years in a subgroup. SETTING: 20 primary schools in Guildford and Carlisle. SUBJECTS: 1511 children measured at 9-11 years (response rate 79%), including 549 who had been measured at 5-7 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Blood pressure at 9-11 years, change in blood pressure between 5-7 and 9-11 years, birth weight (based on maternal recall), and placental weight (based on birth records). RESULTS: At 9-11 years birth weight was inversely related both to systolic blood pressure (regression coefficient -2.80 mm Hg/kg; 95% confidence interval -3.84 to -1.76) and to diastolic blood pressure (regression coefficient -1.42 mm Hg/kg; -2.14 to -0.70) once current height and body mass index were taken into account. Placental weight was inversely related to blood pressure after adjustment for current height and body mass index but placental ratio (placental weight to birth weight) was unrelated to blood pressure. Between 5-7 and 9-11 years systolic blood pressure rose more rapidly in children of lower birth weight (regression coefficient -1.71 mm Hg/kg; -3.35 to -0.07). This effect seemed to be stronger in girls. CONCLUSIONS: Birth weight rather than placental ratio is the early life factor most importantly related to blood pressure in childhood. The results support the possibility of "amplification" of the relation between birth weight and blood pressure, particularly in girls.

Aging↗
PubMed1995

Scoring system to identify men at high risk of stroke: a strategy for general practice.

BACKGROUND: The major risk factors for stroke are well described and there is good evidence that the risks associated with hypertension and cigarette smoking are reversible by appropriate interventions. However, if disease prevention measures are to be efficient, it is important that a system which can identify individuals at high risk of stroke be available for use in general practice. AIM: A study was therefore undertaken to design an effective and practical system for detecting men aged 40 to 59 years at high risk of stroke in primary care. METHOD: Stroke incidence and risk factor data were examined in a cohort of 7735 men aged 40 to 59 years who had taken part in the British regional heart study. Analysis was performed using data from initial entry into the study and then from five and 11.5 years of follow up. Subjects were randomly selected from the age-sex register of one general practice in each of 24 different towns throughout the United Kingdom, representing the full range of cardiovascular mortality rates. RESULTS: A simple scoring system derived from logistic regression using age, systolic blood pressure, current cigarette consumption, and evidence of anginal chest pain was able to detect more than 80% of all strokes occurring within five years in the top fifth of the score distribution. The inclusion of other risk factors for stroke did not increase the score's predictive ability. The combination of smoking and hypertension, while much less sensitive than the scoring system, was a better indicator of risk than any single risk factor, all of whose predictive values were poor. CONCLUSION: Based on readily measured variables, this scoring system could be used in general practice to identify men at high risk of stroke who would benefit from further intervention. Effective identification of high risk individuals requires assessment of the combined effects of multiple risk factors.

Adult↗