Statistical and design issues in studies of groups.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to P Cummings.
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OBJECTIVE: To determine whether psychiatric illness is a risk factor for subsequent traumatic brain injury (TBI). METHODS: Case control study in a large staff model health maintenance organisation in western Washington State. Patients with TBI, determined by International classification of diseases, 9th revision, clinical modification (ICD-9-CM) diagnoses, were 1440 health plan members who had TBI diagnosed in 1993 and who had been enrolled in the previous year, during which no TBI was ascertained. Three health plan members were randomly selected as control subjects, matched by age, sex, and reference date. Psychiatric illness in the year before the TBI reference date was determined by using computerised records of ICD-9-CM diagnoses, psychiatric medication prescriptions, and utilisation of a psychiatric service. RESULTS: For those with a psychiatric diagnosis in the year before the reference date, the adjusted relative risk for TBI was 1.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4 to 2.0) compared with those without a psychiatric diagnosis. Patients who had filled a psychiatric medication prescription had an adjusted relative risk for TBI of 1.6 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.1) compared with those who had not filled a psychiatric medication prescription. Patients who had utilised psychiatric services had an adjusted relative risk for TBI of 1.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.6) compared with those who had not utilised psychiatric services. The adjusted relative risk for TBI for patients with psychiatric illness determined by any of the three psychiatric indicators was 1.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.9) compared with those without any psychiatric indicator. CONCLUSION: Psychiatric illness appears to be associated with an increased risk for TBI.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between biomechanical measurements (bone quality of the femoral neck, comminution, fracture angle, and fracture level) and the likelihood of fixation failure among patients who have a multiple screw stabilisation of an intracapsular hip fracture. METHODS: A cohort study of 139 Washington State residents greater than 60 years of age who sustained a fall-related transcervical hip fracture treated from 1990 to 1996 inclusive. Measurements of bone quality, fracture angle, fracture level, and comminution were taken from perioperative X-rays. The outcome measure was clinical failure of the internal fixation procedure within 12 months of hospital discharge, as measured by readmission for further surgery to that hip. RESULTS: Of the four biomechanical aspects examined, only bone quality, as measured by presence of an ICD code for osteoporosis, was significantly associated with risk of subsequent hospitalisation for revision surgery (adjusted hazard ratio 7.7, 95% CI 1.8-32.8). CONCLUSION: A diagnosis code for osteoporosis was related to the outcome of intracapsular fractures repaired with multiple pins. Other biomechanical measurements from diagnostic X-rays were not related to the need for further surgery.
STUDY OBJECTIVE: We determined parent recall and perceived usefulness of drowning prevention messages included in routine computer-generated discharge instructions. METHODS: All pediatric emergency department patients' computerized discharge instructions included 3 prevention messages: wear a life vest, swim in safe areas, and do not drink alcohol while swimming or boating. Parents were telephoned 1 to 2 weeks after the visit and asked to recall the prevention messages and rate the usefulness of the instructions. Responses were linked with patient characteristics and ED visit variables (day and time of visit, duration of ED visit, severity of condition, diagnostic category, number of tests, and treatments). RESULTS: Of 914 parents who were contacted, 795 were eligible. Of those, 619 (78%) completed the interview. Fifty percent of parents recalled receiving drowning prevention information; of these, 41% recalled unaided the life vest messages and 35% of 155 parents who did not own a life vest stated they would subsequently consider buying their child a life vest. Most (88%) rated the prevention information useful or very useful. No patient or visit variables were associated with usefulness ratings. CONCLUSION: Written injury prevention messages with discharge instructions were well received by parents of children in a pediatric ED. The ED may be a setting where families could receive injury prevention education.
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BACKGROUND: Submersion victims are frequently considered at high risk for cervical spine (C-spine) injury regardless of whether they sustain a traumatic injury. We hypothesized that C-spine injury is unlikely in submersion victims who do not sustain high-impact injuries. METHODS: The study was a cohort study of all people who submerged between January 1974 and July 1996 and received medical care or were seen by the medical examiner in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties in Washington State. RESULTS: Eleven (0.5%) of 2,244 submersion victims had C-spine injuries. All 11 had submerged in open bodies of water; had clinical signs of serious injury; and had a history of diving, motorized vehicle crash, or fall from height. No C-spine injuries occurred in 880 low-impact submersions. CONCLUSION: Submersion victims are at risk for C-spine injury only if they have also sustained a traumatic injury. Routine C-spine immobilization does not appear to be warranted solely on the basis of a history of submersion.
OBJECTIVES: Knowledge of how different indicators of drowsiness affect crash risk might be useful to drivers. This study sought to estimate how drowsiness related factors, and factors that might counteract drowsiness, are related to the risk of a crash. METHODS: Drivers on major highways in a rural Washington county were studied using a matched case-control design. Control (n=199) drivers were matched to drivers in crashes (n=200) on driving location, travel direction, hour, and day of the week. RESULTS: Crash risk was greater among drivers who felt they were falling asleep (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 14.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4 to 147) and those who drove longer distances (aRR 2.2 for each additional 100 miles, 95% CI 1.4 to 3.3). Risk was also greater among drivers who had slept nine or fewer hours in the previous 48 hours, compared with those who had slept 12 hours. Crash risk was less for drivers who used a highway rest stop (aRR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3 to 1.0), drank coffee within the last two hours (aRR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3 to 0.9), or played a radio while driving (aRR 0.6, 95% CI .4 to 1.0). CONCLUSION: Drivers may be able to decrease their risk of crashing if they: (1) stop driving if they feel they are falling asleep; (2) use highway rest stops; (3) drink coffee; (4) turn on a radio; (5) get at least nine hours sleep in the 48 hours before a trip; and (6) avoid driving long distances by sharing the driving or interrupting the trip.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of external cause of injury codes (E codes) reported in computerized hospital discharge records. METHODS: All civilian hospitals in Washington State submit computerized data for each hospital discharge to a file maintained by the Department of Health. In 1996, 32 hospitals accounted for 80% of the injury related discharges in this file; from these hospitals, we sampled 1,260 computerized records for injured patients in a stratified, but random, manner. An expert coder then visited the 32 study hospitals, reviewed the medical records that corresponded to each computerized record, and assigned an E code for that hospitalization. The computerized E code information was compared with codes provided by the expert reviewer. RESULTS: The incidence of hospitalization for injury based upon computerized hospital discharge data was very similar to that based upon chart review: incidence rate ratio 1.0 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.02). Computerized hospital discharge data correctly ranked injuries in regard to both mechanism and intent. Overall agreement on coding was 87% for mechanism of injury, 95% for intent of injury, and 66% for the complete E code. The sensitivity of computerized hospital discharge data for identification of falls, motor vehicle traffic injuries, poisonings, and firearm injuries was 91% or better. The predictive value positive of coding for these four categories of injury ranged from 88% for motor vehicle traffic injuries to 94% for poisonings. The amount of agreement for intent coding ranged from 84% for firearm injuries to 99% for falls. Agreement on coding of the complete E code ranged from 57% for firearm injuries to 72% for poisonings. CONCLUSIONS: Computerized hospital discharge data can be used with confidence to determine how many injuries are treated in a hospital setting and the relative magnitude of various categories of injury. E codes reported in hospital discharge data are a reliable source of information on the types of information most often used for injury related analyses and priority setting. The detail codes (complete E codes) reported in hospital discharge codes are less reliable and must be used with caution.
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the usefulness of newspapers as a surveillance tool for submersion injury, the proportion of submersion events and important details reported in Washington State newspapers was determined. It was also determined whether a letter sent to newspaper editors to encourage reporting changed the proportion and content of reported submersion events. METHODS: Newspaper articles regarding submersion were collected from 225 Washington newspapers from June 1993 through September 1998. Newspaper articles were linked to computerized state death and hospital records. Reporting during periods before and after a letter was sent encouraging more newspaper articles on submersion injury and preventative factors was compared. RESULTS: A total of 1,874 submersion victims were identified in the three data sources. Of the 983 victims who had a death certificate, 52% were reported in at least one news article. Of the 471 persons in hospital discharge data, 25% were reported in a newspaper. Reporting of pediatric victims who died increased from 63% to 79% (p=0.008); reporting of hospitalized persons increased from 23% to 27% (p=0.3). There were increases in reporting of swimming ability (7% to 15%, p<0.001), supervision (82% to 91%, p<0.001), and alcohol use (7% to 24%, p<0.001). Reporting of life vest use decreased (35% to 23%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Newspapers failed to report about one half of fatal submersions and three quarters of submersions that resulted in a hospitalization. An effort to improve reporting was associated with an increase in the proportion of pediatric drownings that were reported, but a consistent improvement in content was found. The usefulness of newspaper articles as a surveillance tool may be limited.
CONTEXT: Despite calls for wider national implementation of an integrated approach to trauma care, the effectiveness of this approach at a regional or state level remains unproven. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether implementation of an organized system of trauma care reduces mortality due to motor vehicle crashes. DESIGN: Cross-sectional time-series analysis of crash mortality data collected for 1979 through 1995 from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. SETTING: All 50 US states and the District of Columbia. SUBJECTS: All front-seat passenger vehicle occupants aged 15 to 74 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of death due to motor vehicle crashes compared before and after implementation of an organized trauma care system. Estimates are based on within-state comparisons adjusted for national trends in crash mortality. RESULTS: Ten years following initial trauma system implementation, mortality due to traffic crashes began to decline; about 15 years following trauma system implementation, mortality was reduced by 8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3%-12%) after adjusting for secular trends in crash mortality, age, and the introduction of traffic safety laws. Implementation of primary enforcement of restraint laws and laws deterring drunk driving resulted in reductions in crash mortality of 13% (95% CI, 11%-16%) and 5% (95% CI, 3%-7%), respectively, while relaxation of state speed limits increased mortality by 7% (95% CI, 3%-10%). CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that implementation of an organized system of trauma care reduces crash mortality. The effect does not appear for 10 years, a finding consistent with the maturation and development of trauma triage protocols, interhospital transfer agreements, organization of trauma centers, and ongoing quality assurance.
CONTEXT: Homicide is a leading cause of death in Colombia, with much of the fatal interpersonal violence concentrated in the country's largest cities. Firearms are involved in as much as 80% of homicides in Colombia. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of an intermittent police-enforced ban on carrying firearms on the incidence of homicide in urban Colombia. DESIGN: Interrupted time-series study with multiple replications. SETTING: Cali, Colombia, during 1993 and 1994 and Bogotá, Colombia, from 1995 through August 1997. PARTICIPANTS: The populations of Cali and Bogotá. INTERVENTION: Carrying of firearms was banned on weekends after paydays, on holidays, and on election days. Enforcement included establishment of police checkpoints and searching of individuals during traffic stops and other routine law enforcement activity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Homicide rates during intervention days were compared with rates during similar days without the intervention; estimates were based on comparisons within the same month, day of week, and time of day. RESULTS: There were 4078 homicides in Cali during 1993 and 1994 (114.6 per 100,000 person-years). In Bogotá, 9106 homicides occurred from 1995 through August 1997 (61 per 100,000 person-years). The incidence of homicide was lower during periods when the firearm-carrying ban was in effect compared with other periods (multivariate-adjusted rate ratio, 0.86 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.97] for Cali, and 0.87 [95% CI, 0.77-0.98] for Bogotá). CONCLUSION: An intermittent citywide ban on the carrying of firearms in 2 Colombian cities was associated with a reduction in homicide rates for both cities.
The objective of the study was to examine whether the shifts to and from daylight savings time in Sweden have short-term effects on the incidence of traffic crashes. A database maintained by the Swedish National Road Administration was used to examine crashes from 1984 through 1995, that occurred on state roads the Monday preceding, the Monday immediately after (index Monday), and the Monday 1 week after the change to daylight savings time in the spring and for the corresponding three Mondays in the autumn. The Mondays 1 week before and after the time changes were taken as representing the expected incidence of crashes. Crash incidence was calculated per 1000 person-years using population estimates for each year of the study. The association between 1 h of possible sleep loss and crash incidence was estimated by the incidence rate ratio from negative binomial regression. The incidence rate ratio was 1.04 (95% CI, 0.92-1.16) for a Monday on which drivers were expected to have had 1 h less sleep, compared with other Mondays. In the spring, the incidence rate ratio for crashes was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.93-1.31) for Mondays after the time change compared to other spring Mondays. The corresponding rate ratio for the fall was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.84-1.15) It was concluded that the shift to and from daylight savings time did not have measurable important immediate effects on crash incidence in Sweden.
CONTEXT: There are limited data on the extent to which spouse abuse in a family is a risk factor for child abuse. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the subsequent relative risk of child abuse in families with a report of spouse abuse compared with other families. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Analysis of a centralized US Army database PARTICIPANTS: Married couples with children with at least one spouse on active duty in the US Army during 1989-95. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The US Army Family Advocacy Program's Central Database was used to identify child and spouse abuse. The exposure was an episode of identified spouse abuse and the main outcome was a substantiated episode of subsequent child abuse. RESULTS: During the study period of an estimated 2,019,949 person years, 14,270 incident child abuse cases were substantiated. Families with an incident case of spouse abuse identified during the study period were twice as likely to have a substantiated report of child abuse compaired with other military families, rate ratio, 2.0, (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-2.1). Young parental age had the highest rate ratio, 4.9 (95% CI 4.5-5.3) in the subgroup analysis controlling for rank. Identified spouse abuse was associated with physical abuse of a child, rate ratio 2.4 (95% CI 2.2-2.5), and with sexual abuse of a child, rate ratio 1.5 (95% CI 1.3-1.7). Identified spouse abuse was not associated with child neglect or maltreatment, rate ratio, 1.0 95% CI 0.9-1.1) CONCLUSION: An identified episode of spouse abuse in a family appears to be associated with an increased risk of subsequent child abuse and serves as an independent risk factor. Therefore. care providers should consider the potential risk to children when dealing with spouse abuse.
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