Biomedical subjects

P Gopikrishnan

Publications and source records attributed to P Gopikrishnan.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2002

Self-organized complexity in economics and finance.

This article discusses some of the similarities between work being done by economists and by physicists seeking to contribute to economics. We also mention some of the differences in the approaches taken and seek to justify these different approaches by developing the argument that by approaching the same problem from different points of view, new results might emerge. In particular, we review two newly discovered scaling results that appear to be universal, in the sense that they hold for widely different economies as well as for different time periods: (i) the fluctuation of price changes of any stock market is characterized by a probability density function, which is a simple power law with exponent -4 extending over 10(2) SDs (a factor of 10(8) on the y axis); this result is analogous to the Gutenberg--Richter power law describing the histogram of earthquakes of a given strength; and (ii) for a wide range of economic organizations, the histogram shows how size of organization is inversely correlated to fluctuations in size with an exponent approximately 0.2. Neither of these two new empirical laws has a firm theoretical foundation. We also discuss results that are reminiscent of phase transitions in spin systems, where the divergent behavior of the response function at the critical point (zero magnetic field) leads to large fluctuations.

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PubMed2001

Quantifying and interpreting collective behavior in financial markets.

Firms having similar business activities are correlated. We analyze two different cross-correlation matrices C constructed from (i) 30-min price fluctuations of 1000 US stocks for the two-year period 1994-95 and (ii) one-day price fluctuations of 422 US stocks for the 35-year period 1962-96. We find that the eigenvectors of C corresponding to the largest eigenvalues allow us to partition the set of all stocks into distinct subsets. These subsets are similar to business sectors, and are stable for extended periods of time. We find that price fluctuations of these subsets are characterized by power-law decaying time correlations, reminiscent of strongly interacting systems.

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PubMed2000

Economic fluctuations and anomalous diffusion

We quantify the relation between trading activity - measured by the number of transactions N(Deltat)-and the price change G(Deltat) for a given stock, over a time interval [t, t+Deltat]. To this end, we analyze a database documenting every transaction for 1000 U.S. stocks for the two-year period 1994-1995. We find that price movements are equivalent to a complex variant of classic diffusion, where the diffusion constant fluctuates drastically in time. We relate the analog for stock price fluctuations of the diffusion constant-known in economics as the volatility-to two microscopic quantities: (i) the number of transactions N(Deltat) in Deltat, which is the analog of the number of collisions and (ii) the variance W(2)(Deltat) of the price changes for all transactions in Deltat, which is the analog of the local mean square displacement between collisions. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that the power-law tails of P(G(Deltat)) are due to P(W(Deltat)), and the long-range correlations in |G(Deltat)| are due to N(Deltat).

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PubMed2000

Statistical properties of share volume traded in financial markets

We quantitatively investigate the ideas behind the often-expressed adage "it takes volume to move stock prices," and study the statistical properties of the number of shares traded Q(Deltat) for a given stock in a fixed time interval Deltat. We analyze transaction data for the largest 1000 stocks for the two-year period 1994-95, using a database that records every transaction for all securities in three major US stock markets. We find that the distribution P(Q(Deltat)) displays a power-law decay, and that the time correlations in Q(Deltat) display long-range persistence. Further, we investigate the relation between Q(Deltat) and the number of transactions N(Deltat) in a time interval Deltat, and find that the long-range correlations in Q(Deltat) are largely due to those of N(Deltat). Our results are consistent with the interpretation that the large equal-time correlation previously found between Q(Deltat) and the absolute value of price change |G(Deltat)| (related to volatility) are largely due to N(Deltat).

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PubMed1999

Statistical properties of the volatility of price fluctuations.

We study the statistical properties of volatility, measured by locally averaging over a time window T, the absolute value of price changes over a short time interval deltat. We analyze the S&P 500 stock index for the 13-year period Jan. 1984 to Dec. 1996. We find that the cumulative distribution of the volatility is consistent with a power-law asymptotic behavior, characterized by an exponent mu approximately 3, similar to what is found for the distribution of price changes. The volatility distribution retains the same functional form for a range of values of T. Further, we study the volatility correlations by using the power spectrum analysis. Both methods support a power law decay of the correlation function and give consistent estimates of the relevant scaling exponents. Also, both methods show the presence of a crossover at approximately 1.5 days. In addition, we extend these results to the volatility of individual companies by analyzing a data base comprising all trades for the largest 500 U.S. companies over the two-year period Jan. 1994 to Dec. 1995.

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PubMed1999

Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices.

We study the distribution of fluctuations of the S&P 500 index over a time scale deltat by analyzing three distinct databases. Database (i) contains approximately 1 200 000 records, sampled at 1-min intervals, for the 13-year period 1984-1996, database (ii) contains 8686 daily records for the 35-year period 1962-1996, and database (iii) contains 852 monthly records for the 71-year period 1926-1996. We compute the probability distributions of returns over a time scale deltat, where deltat varies approximately over a factor of 10(4)-from 1 min up to more than one month. We find that the distributions for deltat<or= 4 d (1560 min) are consistent with a power-law asymptotic behavior, characterized by an exponent alpha approximately 3, well outside the stable Lévy regime 0<alpha<2. To test the robustness of the S&P result, we perform a parallel analysis on two other financial market indices. Database (iv) contains 3560 daily records of the NIKKEI index for the 14-year period 1984-1997, and database (v) contains 4649 daily records of the Hang-Seng index for the 18-year period 1980-1997. We find estimates of alpha consistent with those describing the distribution of S&P 500 daily returns. One possible reason for the scaling of these distributions is the long persistence of the autocorrelation function of the volatility. For time scales longer than (deltat)x approximately 4 d, our results are consistent with a slow convergence to Gaussian behavior.

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PubMed1999

Scaling of the distribution of price fluctuations of individual companies.

We present a phenomenological study of stock price fluctuations of individual companies. We systematically analyze two different databases covering securities from the three major U.S. stock markets: (a) the New York Stock Exchange, (b) the American Stock Exchange, and (c) the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation stock market. Specifically, we consider (i) the trades and quotes database, for which we analyze 40 million records for 1000 U.S. companies for the 2-yr period 1994-95; and (ii) the Center for Research and Security Prices database, for which we analyze 35 million daily records for approximately 16,000 companies in the 35-yr period 1962-96. We study the probability distribution of returns over varying time scales Delta t, where Delta t varies by a factor of approximately 10(5), from 5 min up to approximately 4 yr. For time scales from 5 min up to approximately 16 days, we find that the tails of the distributions can be well described by a power-law decay, characterized by an exponent 2.5 < proportional to < 4, well outside the stable Lévy regime 0 < alpha < 2. For time scales Delta t >> (Delta t)(x) approximately equal to 16 days, we observe results consistent with a slow convergence to Gaussian behavior. We also analyze the role of cross correlations between the returns of different companies and relate these correlations to the distribution of returns for market indices.

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