Chernobyl source term, atmospheric dispersion, and dose estimation.
The Chernobyl source term available for long-range transport was estimated by integration of radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling and by reactor core radionuclide inventory estimation in conjunction with WASH-1400 release fractions associated with specific chemical groups. These analyses indicated that essentially all of the noble gases, 60% of the radioiodines, 40% of the radiocesium, 10% of the tellurium, and about 1% or less of the more refractory elements were released. Atmospheric dispersion modeling of the radioactive cloud over the Northern Hemisphere revealed that the cloud became segmented during the first day, with the lower section heading toward Scandinavia and the upper part heading in a southeasterly direction with subsequent transport across Asia to Japan, the North Pacific, and the west coast of North America. The inhalation doses due to direct cloud exposure were estimated to exceed 10 mGy near the Chernobyl area, to range between 0.1 and 0.001 mGy within most of Europe, and to be generally less than 0.00001 mGy within the United States. The Chernobyl source term was several orders of magnitude greater than those associated with the Windscale and TMI reactor accidents. However, the 137Cs from the Chernobyl event is about 6% of that released by the U.S. and U.S.S.R. atmospheric nuclear weapon tests, while the 131I and 90Sr released by the Chernobyl accident was only about 0.1% of that released by the weapon tests.