Biomedical subjects

P Hanlon

Publications and source records attributed to P Hanlon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Getting strategic about the environment and health.

Historically, the physical environment has been a target for public health policy across the globe. This remains the case in developing countries where the enduring infectious and toxic challenge posed by the environment is tangible and its health impact is manifest. However, in Western societies, the relevance of the environment to health has become obscured. Even when this is not the case, the perspective is usually narrow, centering on specific toxic, infectious or allergenic agents in particular environmental compartments. It is rare for importance to be given to a health-determining role for the environment acting through broader psychosocial mechanisms. The result is that environmental manipulation is seen as a cornerstone of the public health response for comparatively few health concerns. This paper considers how public health policies and action on the physical environment may be pursued more optimally. The need for a more strategic approach, which employs a new conceptual model that recognizes the complexity and contextual issues affecting the relationship between the environment and health but retains sufficient flexibility and simplicity to have practical application, is identified. Building on recent work, a model is proposed and pointers are given for its use in a practical context.

Causality↗

PubMed2005

Meeting the information needs of the 'Health for all' challenge--lessons from Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: To create a public health data resource for Scotland that is based on a socio-ecological model of the determinants of health and would, therefore, meets the needs of the emerging public health agenda. DESIGN: Action research, in which the approach moved logically through stages of action (conception, feasibility study, pilot projects, leading to a national set of integrated health and well-being profiles). Each stage built on the results of the previous research. RESULTS: The conceptual stage identified the need for an approach to public health data that kept pace with the increasingly accepted socio-ecological models of the determinants of health. A feasibility study concluded that sufficient data were available to populate the health fields that represented the important determinants of health. At this time strengths and weakness in data were defined. This led to the articulation of a 'vision' for integrated public heath data in Scotland that was the subject of a wide consultation. Pilot studies provided local stakeholders with imaginatively presented data (on population demographics, health and function, behaviour, social environment, economy, physical environment, morbidity and mortality) for their local communities. The response to these was so positive that a demand was created for a comprehensive set of 'community profiles'. These, in addition to parliamentary constituency profiles, have now been created and widely disseminated. CONCLUSIONS: It has been possible, despite many difficulties, to develop approaches to public health information that are informed by the socio-ecological model of health and create outputs that represent a significant advance on previous approaches to public health data. This is a work in progress and many issues remain unresolved. Interaction with others engaged in parallel tasks will facilitate the next steps.

Community Participation↗

PubMed2005

Why is mortality higher in Scotland than in England and Wales? Decreasing influence of socioeconomic deprivation between 1981 and 2001 supports the existence of a 'Scottish Effect'.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the degree to which changing patterns of deprivation in Scotland and the rest of Great Britain between 1981 and 2001 explain Scotland's higher mortality rates over that period. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analyses using population and mortality data from around the 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses. SETTING: Great Britain (GB). PARTICIPANTS: Populations of Great Britain enumerated in the 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Carstairs deprivation scores derived for wards (England and Wales) and postcode sectors (Scotland). Mortality rates adjusted for age, sex and deprivation decile. RESULTS: Between 1981 and 2001 Scotland became less deprived relative to the rest of Great Britain. Age and sex standardized all-cause mortality rates decreased by approximately 25% across Great Britain, including Scotland but mortality rates were on average 12% higher in Scotland in 1981 rising to 15% higher in 2001. While over 60% of the excess mortality in 1981 could be explained by differences in deprivation profile, less than half the excess could be explained in 1991 and 2001. After adjusting for age, sex and deprivation, excess mortality in Scotland rose from 4.7% (95% CI: 3.9% to 5.4%) in 1981 to 7.9% (95% CI: 7.2% to 8.7%) in 1991 and 8.2% (95% CI: 7.4% to 9.0%) in 2001. All deprivation deciles showed excess indicating that populations in Scotland living in areas of comparable deprivation to populations in the rest of Great Britain always had higher mortality rates. By 2001 the largest excesses were found in the most deprived areas in Scotland with a 17% higher mortality rate in the most deprived decile compared to similarly deprived areas in England and Wales. Excess mortality in Scotland has increased most among males aged <65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Scotland's relative mortality disadvantage compared to the rest of Great Britain, after allowing for deprivation, is worsening. By 1991 measures of deprivation no longer explained most of the excess mortality in Scotland and the unexplained excess has persisted during the 1990s. More research is required to understand what is causing this 'Scottish effect'.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Transport policy and health inequalities: a health impact assessment of Edinburgh's transport policy.

Health impact assessment (HIA) can be used to examine the relationships between inequalities and health. This HIA of Edinburgh's transport policy demonstrates how HIA can examine how different transport policies can affect different population groupings to varying degrees. In this case, Edinburgh's economy is based on tourism, financial services and Government bodies. These need a good transport infrastructure, which maintains a vibrant city centre. A transport policy that promotes walking, cycling and public transport supports this and is also good for health. The HIA suggested that greater spend on public transport and supporting sustainable modes of transport was beneficial to health, and offered scope to reduce inequalities. This message was understood by the City Council and influenced the development of the city's transport and land-use strategies. The paper discusses how HIA can influence public policy.

Community Participation↗

PubMed2001

Developing principles for health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Policies and practice in many sectors affect health. Health impact assessment (HIA) is a way to predict these health impacts, in order to recommend improvements in policies to improve health. There has been debate about appropriate methods for this work. The Scottish Executive funded the Scottish Needs Assessment Programme to conduct two pilot HIAs and from these to develop guidance on HIA. METHODS: Case study 1 compared three possible future scenarios for developing transport in Edinburgh, based on funding levels. It used a literature review, analysis of local data and the knowledge and opinions of key informants. Impacts borne by different population groups.were compared using grids. Case study 2 assessed the health impacts of housing investment in a disadvantaged part of Edinburgh, using published literature, focus groups with community groups and interviews with professionals. RESULTS: Disadvantaged communities bore more detrimental effects from the low transport investment scenario, in the areas of: accidents; pollution; access to amenities, jobs and social contacts; physical activity; and impacts on community networks. The housing investment had greatest impact on residents' mental health, by reducing overcrowding, noise pollution, stigma and fear of crime. CONCLUSION: Although there is no single 'blueprint' for HIA that will be appropriate for all circumstances, key principles to inform future HIA were defined. HIA should be systematic; involve decision-makers and affected communities; take into account local factors; use evidence and methods appropriate to the impacts identified and the importance and scope of the policy; and make practical recommendations.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

The influence of general health status and social support on symptomatic outcome following coronary artery bypass grafting.

OBJECTIVES: To assess health status, level of social support, and presence of coronary artery disease risk factors before and after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG); to assess symptomatic relief approximately 12 months postoperatively; and to examine the association between preoperative health status and recurrence of symptoms. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Preoperatively, in hospital outpatient department (1995-1996); postoperatively, at home (1996-97). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Patients awaiting elective CABG were recruited one month before the expected date of operation. Preoperative assessment included severity of symptoms, coronary artery disease risk factors, short form 36 (SF-36) questionnaire, and social activities questionnaire. The presence and severity of angina and breathlessness were reported postoperatively (mean 16.4 months). Multiple regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with improved outcome following CABG. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Patient reported presence and severity of angina and breathlessness. RESULTS: 183 patients were followed for a mean of 16. 4 months after CABG. Angina and breathlessness were completely relieved in 55% and 36% of patients, respectively. In patients with residual symptoms, the severity was significantly reduced (angina p < 0.001; breathlessness, p = 0.02). Patients with low SF-36 scores and low social network scores preoperatively were less likely to be relieved of symptoms (p < 0.001). Health status and social support levels preoperatively were lower than in other reported coronary artery disease patients groups. Preoperatively, coronary artery disease risk factors were higher than recommended in current guidelines: 67.4% had raised plasma cholesterol, 39.0% were hypertensive, 80% were moderately obese, and 22.9% were smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence of symptoms exceeded other published studies. Patients' perception of general health, symptoms, and social support influences outcome.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Nurse led shared care for patients on the waiting list for coronary artery bypass surgery: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a nurse led shared care programme to improve coronary heart disease risk factor levels and general health status and to reduce anxiety and depression in patients awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Community, January 1997 to March 1998. STUDY GROUPS: 98 (75 male) consecutive patients were recruited to the study within one month of joining the waiting list for elective CABG at Glasgow Royal Infirmary University NHS Trust. Patients were randomly assigned to usual care (control; n = 49) or a nurse led intervention programme (n = 49). INTERVENTION: A shared care programme consisting of health education and motivational interviews, according to individual need, was carried out monthly. Care was provided in the patients' own homes by the community based cardiac liaison nurse alternating with the general practice nurse at the practice clinic. OUTCOME MEASURES: Smoking status, obesity, physical activity, anxiety and depression, general health status, and proportion of patients exceeding target values for blood pressure, plasma cholesterol, and alcohol intake. RESULTS: Compared with patients who received usual care, those participating in the nurse led programme were more likely to stop smoking (25% v 2%, p = 0.001) and to reduce obesity (body mass index > 30 kg/m(2)) (16.3% v 8.1%, p = 0.01). Target systolic blood pressure improved by 19.8% compared with a 10.7% decrease in the control group (p = 0.001) and target diastolic blood pressure improved by 21.5% compared with 10.2% in the control group (p = 0.000). However, there was no significant difference between groups in the proportion of patients with cholesterol concentrations exceeding target values. There was a significant improvement in general health status scores across all eight domains of the 36 item short form health survey with changes in difference in mean scores between the groups ranging from 8.1 (p = 0.005) to 36.1 (p < 0.000). Levels of anxiety and depression improved (p < 0.000) and there was improvement in time spent being physically active (p < 0.000). CONCLUSIONS: This nurse led shared care intervention was shown to be effective for improving care for patients on the waiting list for CABG.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Achieving better health through health impact assessment.

OBJECTIVE: Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a method of predicting the health impacts of policies and activities, in order to recommend changes that would improve health. We piloted approaches to health impact assessment and made recommendations for its use as part of the planning and policy making processes in Scotland. DESIGN: Two Health Impact Assessments were done as case studies. One assessed the City of Edinburgh Council's Local Transport Strategy. The other assessed North Edinburgh Area Renewal Housing Strategy. Both were done in partnership with the professionals responsible for developing the strategies. RESULTS: The main health impacts of transport strategy were in the areas of: accidents, pollution, access to amenities, jobs and social contacts, opportunities for physical activity in walking and cycling and impacts on community networks. Overall, housing strategy impacted most on mental health, especially stress and depression. The recommendations of both HIAs are being used in developing the strategies further. CONCLUSIONS: Health impact assessment can make explicit the health consequences of decisions in different sectors, including impacts on health inequalities. Health Impact Assessment should be done as part of community planning and other partnership activities. Consideration of health impacts should become part of routine decision making.

Community Participation↗

PubMed2000

Assessment of changes in general health status using the short-form 36 questionnaire 1 year following coronary artery bypass grafting.

OBJECTIVE: The problem addressed in the study was to gain a greater understanding of the health benefits of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The purpose of the study was to assess general health status, using the short-form (SF)-36 questionnaire, approximately 12 months following CABG, and to document any associations between pre-operative health status, level of social support, coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors, CAD symptom severity and post-operative health status. METHODS: The study was prospective and observational in design and included assessments at two time points, namely pre-operatively in a hospital outpatient department (1995-1996) and post-operatively at home (1996-1997). Two hundred and fourteen patients awaiting elective CABG were recruited a month before the expected date of operation. Pre-operative assessment included: (1), severity of symptoms; (2), CAD risk factors; (3), SF-36 questionnaire; and (4), social activities questionnaire. Post-operative assessment measured health status using the SF-36 instrument (mean, 16.4 months). Correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with improved health status following CABG. RESULTS: Two hundred and fourteen patients were assessed pre-operatively and underwent CABG. There was a 4.8% 30-day mortality rate, and 183 patients were followed for a mean of 16.4 months after CABG. SF-36 scores following CABG were improved across all of the eight domains (P<0.001). A higher social network score and higher pre-operative health status were associated with improved health status. Patients with lower health levels (SF-36 scores) prior to CABG were less likely to gain improvement in health (SF-36 scores) following CABG. Lower SF-36 scores following operation were influenced by the presence of diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking, younger age, a high socio-economic deprivation category and higher alcohol intake. Many patients had uncorrected CAD risk factors at pre-operative assessment. CONCLUSIONS: The SF-36 instrument was shown to be a useful and sensitive tool to assess differences and changes in the general health status of patients before and following CABG. High levels of social support were associated with improved health status post-operatively. Lower pre-operative general health status, the presence of diabetes mellitus and cigarette smoking were associated with poorer post-operative general health status.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed2000

Coronary artery disease patients' perception of their health and expectations of benefit following coronary artery bypass grafting.

This prospective descriptive study has analysed 214 patient interviews before and 1 year after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The preoperative interview explored issues related to the impact of coronary artery disease upon health and expectations of benefit from the patients' perspective. The postoperative interview examined patients' accounts of the experience of operation and its impact on their health. A thematic analysis of the interview data was undertaken. The main factors relating to health status preoperatively were described in terms of 'dependency' on others and medication, and 'impending doom' of some major life threatening event. Benefits to health postoperatively were viewed in terms of 'removal of a death sentence' and 'freedom of choice'. Expectations of benefit from operation were varied and included 'freedom and independence', 'hope, chance and uncertainty' and 'addition of years to life and life to years'. Undergoing the operation was described by themes of the 'enormity of the experience' and 'the importance of lay support'. These findings provide a greater understanding of the 'lived experience' of both coronary artery disease and undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. Unrealistic expectations of the benefits of CABG highlights the need for improvement in the way patients are informed about risks and benefits of interventions. In addition, the views and insights suggest that CABG operation is regarded as a significant major life event; thus more information, advice and counselling might help support patients before, during and after surgery.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed2000

The link between major risk factors and important categories of admission in an ageing cohort.

BACKGROUND: Record linkage of routine hospital data to population-based research findings presents an opportunity to explore the relationships between classical risk factors and hospital activity. METHODS: The objectives of this study were to examine, in Paisley and Renfrew, the effect of risk factor variables on the likelihood of experiencing an acute hospital admission with six major medical conditions. The subjects were 8,349 women and 7,057 men, aged 45-64 in the early to mid-1970s. The main outcome measures were acute hospital admission with principal diagnosis of: any malignant neoplasm; malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung; ischaemic heart disease; respiratory disease; cerebrovascular disease; or diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: Smokers were almost eight times more likely to be admitted with lung cancer and, to a lesser extent, were more likely to be admitted for the other conditions investigated with the exception of diabetes mellitus. Forced expiratory volume was also an independent risk factor for admission with lung cancer and strokes. Higher levels of cholesterol were associated with increased risk of admission with ischaemic heart disease but less with cancer (including lung cancer). With the exception of admissions for cerebrovascular disease, deprivation category was found to have no independent effect on the likelihood of experiencing any of the morbidity outcomes examined. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm that associations first established between risk factors and mortality outcomes (e.g. smoking and lung cancer) are also found between risk factors and hospital admissions for the same causes. This in itself is unremarkable, but the results are of interest for three reasons. First, they illustrate the potential of record linkage to map the effects of risk factors. Second, they demonstrate the size of the effect risk factors have on the risk of admission. Third, they provide a surprising finding that deprivation category does not act as an independent risk factor for the majority of the categories of admission investigated.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2000

Needs assessment in primary care: general practitioners' perceptions and implications for the future.

BACKGROUND: Health needs assessment can guide the appropriate shift to primary care by identifying the most effective and efficient resource allocation to meet the needs of populations. Assessing health care needs will be a continuing challenge for primary care trusts in Scotland (or equivalent groups in other parts of the United Kingdom); however, lessons must be learned from the experience of needs assessment that followed the 'internal market' reforms of the 1990s. AIM: To examine general practitioners' (GPs') awareness and experience of needs assessment, to identify barriers to needs assessment in primary care, and to ascertain how better progress might be made in the future. METHOD: A postal questionnaire survey of 1777 Scottish GPs (a one-in-two sample) was combined with a semistructured interview survey of 'lead' GPs from a random sample of 64 mainland Scottish practices between May and August 1996. RESULTS: Sixty-five per cent (1154) of GPs responded to the questionnaire, of which 54% (965) were completed. Over 73% (47) of interviews were completed. Most GPs were unfamiliar with the concept of needs assessment and there was no evidence that needs assessment had influenced commissioning decisions. Most GPs argued that it was not a 'core' activity and that they lacked training in the relevant skills. While the attitude of the majority was indifferent, cynical, and sometimes hostile, a minority, comprising mostly younger fundholders, was more enthusiastic about needs assessment. CONCLUSION: The motivation and attitude of the majority of GPs present a barrier to needs assessment in primary care. GPs will require more resources and training if they are to undertake this responsibility. Most GPs believe than incentives (financial or organisational) will be necessary. Primary care trusts and equivalent structures should be aware of these attitudes as they seek to establish plans based on estimates of population needs in defined locations.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Influence of biological, behavioural, health service and social risk factors on the trend towards more frequent.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the trend in rising acute hospital admission rates in the Renfrew Paisley MIDSPAN cohort and assess the influence of baseline risk factor data, morbidity patterns, deprivation category and characteristics of GP practice on the increase. DESIGN: Cohort analysis which, using a linked data set covering a 23 year follow-up period, combined original 'risk'-related data with subsequent routine hospital admissions data. A multiple logistic regression model predicted changes in hospital admissions patterns. SETTING: Renfrew and Paisley, two post-industrial towns in Scotland. SUBJECTS: Eight thousand three hundred and fifty four women and 7,052 men, aged 45-64 in the early 1970s. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The contribution that each of the factors investigated made to the likelihood of admission over time. RESULTS: While risk status in middle life, diagnosis reached after admission, deprivation category and characteristics of GP practice influence the absolute chance of being admitted to hospital, changes in these factors do not explain much, if any, of the quite marked increase in admission rates observed during the last 10 year of the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Whatever the reasons for the trend of rising admission, the most likely explanation appears to be a combination of social and health service related factors. For the Paisley-Renfrew cohort, factors like smoking status, FEV1, deprivation category and GP practice remain important predictors of admission throughout the time period but changes in these factors explain little of the rising trend in admissions.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Community-oriented medical education in Glasgow: developing a community diagnosis exercise.

OBJECTIVES: Recent NHS changes have included an increasing emphasis on primary care settings, and hence community needs assessment. This has led to suggestions that medical education should become more community-oriented if today's medical students are to become effective medical practitioners. Recent curriculum reforms in a number of medical schools frequently involve a more student-centred approach, which encourages students to learn by intellectual discovery and critical thinking. We describe one such exercise in community diagnosis that has been developed in Glasgow's new undergraduate medical curriculum. DESIGN: The exercise has been developed as three teaching sessions, each with specific learning objectives. The first session explores the strengths and weaknesses of routine statistics, and reveals the lack of information regarding individual's and community's health and health care needs. The second session is a community-based rapid participatory appraisal arranged by general practitioners. Students interview patients, carers, and local key informants and health care professionals about their perceptions of health and health needs. In the final campus-based session, students combine and present their findings. Development included two pilot exercises involving detailed evaluation. SETTING: University of Glasgow. SUBJECTS: Medical students. RESULTS: Students valued the contrasting perspectives and information provided by different sources. After completing the three sessions, most students and tutors considered it an interesting, enjoyable and educational experience. CONCLUSIONS: This innovative community-oriented teaching programme gave students some insight into how health, morbidity and mortality are measured, why these might vary between different communities, and how different community members' perspectives might differ regarding perceived health and social needs.

Curriculum↗

PubMed1999

Do health checks cause stress?

Data are reported concerning social responses to health checks in an occupational setting. Previous research has suggested that screening may be a stressful experience. This, in turn, has contributed to a degree of scepticism about the value of health checking. No evidence was found in the present study to support the proposition that health checks cause such responses. It is shown that health checks prompt recipients to try to engage in health promoting behavioural changes. The study was a randomized controlled trial of 1,371 persons employed in a large engineering factory in the West of Scotland.

Engineering↗

PubMed1999

Measuring progress towards a primary care-led NHS.

BACKGROUND: The push towards a 'primary care-led' National Health Service (NHS) has far-reaching implications for the future structure of the NHS. The policy involves both a growing emphasis on the role of primary care practitioners in the commissioning of health services, and a change from hospital to primary and community settings for a range of services and procedures. Although the terminology has changed, this emphasis remains in the recent Scottish Health Service White Paper and its English counterpart. AIM: To consider three questions in relation to this policy goal. First, does the evidence base support the changes? Secondly, what is the scale of the changes that have occurred? Thirdly, what are the barriers to the development of a primary care-led NHS? METHOD: Programme budgets were compiled to assess changes over time in the balance of NHS resource allocation with respect to primary and secondary care. Total NHS revenue expenditure for the 15 Scottish health boards was grouped into four blocks or 'programmes': primary care, secondary care, community services, and a residual. The study period was 1991/2 to 1995/6. Expenditure data were supplied by the Scottish Office. RESULTS: Ambiguity of definitions and the absence of good data cause methodological difficulties in evaluating the scale and the appropriateness of the shift. The data that are available suggest that, at the aggregate level, there have been changes over time in the balance of resource allocation between care settings: relative investment into primary care has increased. It would appear that this investment is relatively small and from growth money rather than a 'shift' from secondary care. In addition, the impact of GP-led commissioning is variable but limited. CONCLUSION: General practitioners' (GPs') attitudes to the policy suggest that progress towards a primary care-led NHS will continue to be patchy. The limited shift to date, alongside evidence of ambivalent attitudes to the shift on the part of GPs, suggest that this is a policy objective that may not be achieved.

Delivery of Health Care↗

PubMed1998

A study to determine how needs assessment is being used to improve health.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how needs assessment is being used in Health Authorities and General Practice. DESIGN: A postal survey of a one in two sample of Scottish GPs, semistructured interviews with selected health authority executives and a random sample of GPs. SUBJECTS: Nine hundred and sixty-five GPs (54% of those sent the postal questionnaire), 47 randomly selected GP practices and 36 selected health authority (called health boards in Scotland) executives. RESULTS: In health authorities, a view of commissioning/planning emerged with three components: (1) planning (including needs assessment); (2) leadership; and (3) strong relationships with stakeholders. Health authority executives believed that GP involvement is one of several vital components but doubted the commitment of all but a few GPs to the planning process. GPs welcomed enhanced influence but feared increases in workload and admitted to a lack of training in the skills required for needs assessment. Health authority executives aspired to place needs assessment at the centre of planning but admitted that, at present, cost and volume issues predominate. Most GPs were not involved in needs assessment and argued that it is not part of a GPs core activity. National needs assessment documents were well received by health authorities but made little or no impact on GPs. CONCLUSIONS: Needs assessment will have little involvement from primary care until there are changes in the attitudes and skills of the majority of GPs. Fundamental changes are required in health authority priorities and practice if their rhetoric about needs assessment is to be turned into reality. The role of needs assessment could be enhanced but this will only happen if it can be shown to lead to improved health outcomes while addressing the financial pressures that currently dominate the agenda.

Attitude of Health Personnel↗

PubMed1998

Hospital use by an ageing cohort: an investigation into the association between biological, behavioural and social risk markers and subsequent hospital utilization.

BACKGROUND: The aims of the study were to describe the pattern of hospital utilization (acute and mental health sectors) of the Paisley-Renfrew MIDSPAN cohort and assess the influence of biological, behavioural and social 'risk factors' (established at the time of screening) on subsequent hospital admissions. METHOD: A cohort analysis was carried out in Paisley and Renfrew, two post-industrial towns in West Central Scotland. This used a linked data set covering a 23 year follow-up period to combine original 'risk'-related data with subsequent routine hospital admissions data. The subjects were 8349 women and 7057 men, aged 45-64 in the early to mid-1970s, and representing approximately 80 per cent of the eligible population. The main outcome measures were patterns of hospital utilization (acute and mental health sectors), 'any acute hospital admission', 'a serious acute hospital admission' and 'death' (relative risks of each outcome were calculated for all risk factors). RESULTS: The following patterns of hospital utilization were found. Only 5 per cent experienced a mental health admission but mean stay was long (265 bed days per cohort member admitted). In contrast, 79 per cent experienced at least one acute hospital stay. The age-specific proportions of cohort members requiring admission increased over time but the growth in acute episodes was even higher (suggesting increasing rates of multiple admission). For non-survivors, 42 per cent of all acute episodes (55 per cent of bed days) took place during the 12 months before death. Analysis of risk factors (using Cox's proportional hazards model) of 'any admission' and 'a serious admission' showed forced expiratory volume (FEV1), age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, blood sugar, body mass index, cholesterol and deprivation category to be important predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the desirability of alternative settings of care for the chronically ill and dying, a high proportion of hospital bed days were required near the time of death. The absolute size of the demand for hospital services within the cohort was strikingly large and increasing over time. Strategies to address the tide of rising admissions will have to confront the increasing proportion of individuals requiring admission as well as the growth in multiple admissions. Those who were at higher risk of admission were the older members of the cohort (especially men), those with low FEV1, smokers, those who were underweight or obese, the small number with abnormal levels of blood sugar, those with high blood pressure and those who lived in the most deprived areas. Thus, programmes which affect these determinants of ill health may be useful in reducing age-specific admission rates.

Aged↗