PubMed Health⌕ Search

Biomedical subjects

P Pflaumer

Publications and source records attributed to P Pflaumer.

4 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1992

Forecasting U.S. population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach.

"The use of the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting the population of the United States up to the year 2080 is discussed. It is shown that the Box-Jenkins approach is equivalent to a simple trend model when making long-range predictions for the United States. An investigation of forecasting accuracy indicates that the Box-Jenkins method produces population forecasts that are at least as reliable as those done with more traditional demographic methods."

Americas↗
PubMed1988

Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods.

"This paper presents an approach of constructing confidence intervals by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique attempts to incorporate the uncertainty involved in projecting human populations by letting the fertility and net immigration rates vary as a random variable with a specific distribution. Since fertility and migration are by far the most volatile, and therefore, the most critical components to population forecasting, this technique has the potential of accounting for this uncertainty, if the subjective distributions are specified with enough care. Considering the results of the model for the U.S. in 2082, for example, it is shown that the population will number between 255 million and 355 million with a probability of 90 percent."

Americas↗
PubMed1986

Forecasting the German population with Monte Carlo methods.

"This paper presents an approach of constructing confidence intervals by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique attempts to incorporate the uncertainty involved in projecting the [West] German population by letting the fertility, mortality and net immigration rates vary as a random variable with a specific distribution. Since fertility and migration are by far the most volatile, and therefore, the most critical components to population forecasting, this technique has the potential of accounting for this uncertainty, if the subjective distributions are specified with enough care."

Developed Countries↗