Natural selection and resistance to HIV.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to P Schliekelman.
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We use population models that are based on dynamic energy budget models for individuals in order to study the evolution of offspring size and its relationship to the evolution of population dynamics. We show the existence of alternative evolutionarily stable strategies for offspring investment strategy resulting from a trade off between offspring number and time-to-maturity. The model predicts egg energy in Daphnia magna well, and suggests that the observed egg energy in D. magna is the result of selection for minimal egg investment constrained by minimum viable egg energy, combined with selection for a juvenile energy reserve. The selection for minimal egg size pushes populations toward chaotic dynamics. However, the minimum viable egg size combined with low efficiency of conversion of energy to new biomass is sufficient to keep population dynamics out of chaos.
Advances in genetics have made it feasible to genetically engineer insect strains carrying a conditional lethal trait on multiple loci. We model the release into a target pest population of insects carrying a dominant and fully penetrant conditional lethal trait on 1-20 loci. Delaying the lethality for several generations after release allows the trait to become widely spread in the target population before being activated. To determine effectiveness and optimal strategies for such releases, we vary release size, number of generations until the conditional lethality, nonconditional fitness cost resulting from gene insertions, and fitness reduction associated with laboratory rearing. We show that conditional lethal releases are potentially orders of magnitude more effective than sterile male releases of equal size, and that far smaller release sizes may be required for this approach than necessary with sterile males. For example, a release of male insects carrying a conditional lethal allele that is activated in the F4 generation on 10 loci reduces the target populatioin to 10(-4) of no-release size if there are initially two released males for every wild male. We show how the effectiveness of conditional lethal releases decreases as the nonconditional fitness reduction (i.e., fitness reduction before the trait becomes lethal) associated with the conditional lethal genes increases. For example, if there is a 5% nonconditional fitness cost per conditional lethal allele, then a 2:1 (released male:wild male) release with conditional lethal alleles that are activated in the F4 generation reduces the population to 2-5% (depending on the degree of density dependence) of the no-release size. If there is a per-allele reduction in fitness, then as the number of loci is increased there is a trade-off between the fraction of offspring carrying at least one conditional lethal allele and the fitness of the released insects. We calculate the optimal number of loci on which to insert the conditional lethal gene given various conditions. In addition, we show how laboratory-rearing fitness costs, density-dependence, and all-male versus male-female releases affect the efficiency of conditional lethal releases.
With recent advances in genetics, many new strategies for pest control have become feasible. This is the second article in which we model new techniques for pest control based on the mass release of genetically modified insects. In this article we model the release of insects carrying a dominant and redundant female killing or sterilizing (FK) allele on multiple genetic loci. If such insects are released into a target population, the FK allele can become widely spread in the population through the males while reducing the population each generation by killing females. We allow the number of loci used to vary from 1 to 20. We also allow the FK allele to carry a fitness cost in males due to the gene insertions. Using a model, we explore the effectiveness and optimal strategies for such releases. In the most ideal circumstances (no density-dependence and released insects equal in fitness to wild ones), FK releases are several orders of magnitude more effective than equal sized sterile male releases. For example, a single release of 19 FK-bearing males for every two wild males, with the released males carrying the FK allele on 10 loci, reduces the target population to 0.002% of no-release size. An equal sized sterile release reduces the target population to 5% of no-release size. We also show how the effectiveness of the technique decreases as the fitness cost of the FK alleles in males increases. For example, the above mentioned release reduces the target population to 0.7% of no-release size if each FK allele carries a fitness cost in males of 5%. Adding a simple model for density-dependence and assuming that each of the released males carries the FK allele on six loci, we show that the release size necessary to reduce the target population to 1/100 of no-release size in 10 generations of releases varies from 0.44:1 to 4:1 (depending on parameter values). We also calculate the optimal number of loci on which to put the FK allele under various circumstances.