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P Shekelle

Publications and source records attributed to P Shekelle.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2004

Will changes in primary care improve health outcomes? Modelling the impact of financial incentives introduced to improve quality of care in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the total health gain from improving the quality of care among patients with cardiovascular disease in line with the quality indicator targets in the new contract for general practitioners (GPs) in the UK. DESIGN: Statistical modelling, applying population impact measures to estimate cardiovascular health gains from achieving treatment targets in the GP contract, taking into account current levels of treatment and control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of events prevented in the population over 5 years applied to a national general practice population of 10,000. RESULTS: The greatest health gain in those aged 45-84 years would come from reaching cholesterol reduction targets. This could prevent 15 events in people with coronary heart disease, seven events in those with a history of stroke, and seven events in those with diabetes. Achieving blood pressure control targets in hypertensive patients without the above conditions could prevent 15 cardiovascular events, with further benefits from reducing blood pressure in patients with high blood pressure and coronary heart disease, stroke, or diabetes. Achieving other targets would have smaller impacts because high levels of care are already being achieved or because of the low prevalence of conditions or associated event risk. CONCLUSION: It is possible to quantify the health gain to a practice population of achieving quality targets such as those set in the new GP contract. The amount of health gain is sensitive to current quality of care, prevalence of conditions, and risk factors, and to the size of change anticipated. Nevertheless, it appears that significant health gains could result from achieving the proposed quality targets.

Aged↗
PubMed2001

Evidence assessment of management of acute otitis media: I. The role of antibiotics in treatment of uncomplicated acute otitis media.

CONTEXT: In 1995, >5 million episodes of acute otitis media (AOM) accounted for $3 billion in health care expenditures. OBJECTIVES: To synthesize the literature on the natural history of AOM, the effectiveness of antibiotic treatment in uncomplicated AOM, and the relative effectiveness of specific antibiotic regimens. DATA SOURCES: Seven electronic databases for articles published between 1966 and March 1999 and reference lists in proceedings, published articles, reports, and guidelines. STUDY SELECTION: Two physicians independently assessed each article. Studies addressing AOM in children 4 weeks to 18 years old were included; those addressing children with immunodeficiencies or craniofacial abnormalities were excluded. Randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) were used to assess antibiotic effectiveness, and RCTs and cohort studies were used to assess the natural history of AOM. Among the 3491 citations identified, 80 (2.3%) met our inclusion criteria. DATA EXTRACTION: Two physicians independently abstracted data and assessed the quality of studies using a validated scale for RCTs and 8 quality components for cohort studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Random-effects estimates of pooled absolute rate differences of outcomes were derived, and heterogeneity of both the rates and rate differences was assessed. Children with AOM not treated with antibiotics experienced a 1- to 7-day clinical failure rate of 19% (95% confidence interval: 0.10-0.28) and few suppurative complications. When patients were treated with amoxicillin, the 2- to 7-day clinical failure rate was reduced to 7%, a 12% (95% confidence interval: 0.04-0.20) reduction. Adverse effects, primarily gastrointestinal, were more common among children on cefixime than among those on ampicillin or amoxicillin. They were also more common among children on amoxicillin-clavulanate than among those on azithromycin. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of uncomplicated cases of AOM resolve spontaneously without apparent suppurative complications. Ampicillin or amoxicillin confers a limited therapeutic benefit. There is no evidence to support any particular antibiotic regimens as more effective at relieving symptoms. Certain antibiotics are more likely than others to cause diarrhea and other adverse events.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed2001

Evidence assessment of management of acute otitis media: II. Research gaps and priorities for future research.

OBJECTIVES: To report research gaps and priorities of future research identified during an evidence assessment process on the management of acute otitis media (AOM). METHODS: A conceptual framework for management of AOM was developed to guide the evidence assessment. An 11-member technical expert panel guided the selection of key questions, prioritization of influencing factors, development of scope, definition of AOM, and search strategy through polling processes and conference calls. Quality of clinical trials was evaluated using established scales. Outcome measures were abstracted from each study. RESULTS: A total of 3461 titles and abstracts were screened, and 760 full-length articles were reviewed. Of the 760 articles, 80 studies addressed the key questions. In defining AOM, 42 (52.5%) of the 80 studies included the middle-ear effusion component, only 2 (2.5%) included the rapid onset component, and 26 (32.5%) included the signs/symptoms of inflammation component. None of the 80 studies used all 3 components. Of the 74 controlled trials, 39 (53%) were of acceptable quality (Jadad score of 3 or higher). The technical experts did not agree in the ranking of the importance of the 41 influencing factors (Kendall's coefficient of concordance was 0.0022). Another poll also indicated diverse opinions of the experts on the importance of 7 key questions derived from the conceptual framework (Kendall coefficient of concordance is 0.21). Furthermore, our review found that the type and definition of outcome measure varied. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the large body of literature on AOM, its quality is uneven and its findings are not generalizable. Future research should try to answer all key questions and investigate all risk factors in well-designed, scientific studies.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed2000

Prevention of venous thromboembolism after injury: an evidence-based report--part I: analysis of risk factors and evaluation of the role of vena caval filters.

BACKGROUND: Trauma surgeons use a variety of methods to prevent venous thromboembolism (VT). The rationale for their use frequently is based on conclusions from research on nontrauma populations. Existing recommendations are based on expert opinion and consensus statements rather than systematic analysis of the existing literature and synthesis of available data. The objective is to produce an evidence-based report on the methods of prevention of VT after injury. METHODS: A panel of 17 national authorities from the academic, private, and managed care sectors helped design and review the project. We searched three electronic databases (MEDLINE, EM-BASE, and Cochrane Controlled Trial Register) to identify articles relevant to four key questions: methods of prophylaxis, methods of screening, risk factors for VT, and the role of vena caval filters. The initial 4,093 titles yielded 73 articles for meta-analysis. A random-effects model was used for all pooled results. Study quality was evaluated by previously published quality scores. In this article (part I), we report on the question ranked by the experts as the most important, i.e., Which is the best method to prevent VT?, and also on the incidence of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism in trauma patients. RESULTS: The incidence of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism reported in different studies varies widely. The pooled rates are 11.8% for deep venous thrombosis and 1.5% for pulmonary embolism. Only a few randomized controlled trials have evaluated the methods of VT prophylaxis among trauma patients, and combining their data is difficult because of different designs and preventive methods used. The quality of most studies is low. Meta-analysis shows no evidence that low-dose heparin, mechanical prophylaxis, or low-molecular-weight heparin are more effective than no prophylaxis or each other. However, the 95% confidence intervals of many of the comparisons are wide; therefore, a clinically important difference may exist. CONCLUSION: The trauma literature on VT prophylaxis provides inconsistent data. There is no evidence that any existing method of VT prophylaxis is clearly superior to the other methods or even to no prophylaxis. Our results cast serious doubt on the existing policies on VT prophylaxis, and we call for a large, high-quality, multicenter trial that can provide definitive answers.

Evidence-Based Medicine↗
PubMed2000

Prevention of venous thromboembolism after injury: an evidence-based report--part II: analysis of risk factors and evaluation of the role of vena caval filters.

OBJECTIVE: In part II, we describe the results of the literature search and data analysis concerning risk factors for venous thromboembolism and the role of vena caval filters (VCF) in preventing pulmonary embolism. METHODS: The methodology used in part I was used in part II. RESULTS: Spinal fractures and spinal-cord injuries increase the risk for development of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) by twofold and threefold, respectively. Patients with DVT were an average of 9 years older than patients without DVT. No specific age cut-off point for increased risk could be established because data could not be combined across studies. Patients with prophylactically inserted VCF had a lower incidence of pulmonary embolism (0.2%) compared with concurrently managed patients without VCF (1.5%) or historical controls without VCF (5.8%). These results are reported on uncontrolled studies with observational design. CONCLUSION: Spinal injuries, spinal cord injuries, and age are risk factors for development of DVT. Prophylactic placement of VCF in selected trauma patients may decrease the incidence of pulmonary embolism. Future research with well-designed studies is required to provide definitive answers.

Evidence-Based Medicine↗