India: looking ahead to one and a half billion people.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to P Visaria.
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This paper assesses the feasibility of sustainable development for various low-income countries in the context of prospective population growth. In that context, development that is sustainable is development that does not endanger the natural systems that support life on earth. Since a short time has elapsed since the Mexico City Conference, not all the developmental goals highlighted at that meeting could be reviewed. Emphasis in this paper is placed on an assessment of recent trends in food production and availability, employment and poverty issues, with an emphasis on India, China, and a few other Asian countries on which the author has had access to information. In the view of the author, the key to sustained development in the face of likely continued population growth up to the end of the 21st century lies in technological change and effective use of the human and physical resources in developing countries. Adequate planning and judicious adaptation of the institutional framework can help to avoid the suffering and misery of millions of people currently alive and also those who will be born during further decades.
"This paper attempts to review briefly the past and the prospective changes in the sex-age composition of the population of India and to speculate about their socio-economic implications. The basic data are drawn from the decennial censuses and the Sample Registration System; but the discussion extends beyond them."
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This report demonstrates that the estimates of contraceptive prevalence based on surveys are substantially lower than those based on the service statistics generated by the Indian family planning program. The reasons for this discrepancy were examined by contacting a subsample of acceptors recorded by female health workers as users in their registers. This inquiry indicated that the health workers themselves knew that 15-39 percent of the women who had been recorded as users of reversible methods were not really using them. About 19-27 percent of the recorded users of IUDs and only 3-4 percent of the recorded condom users confirmed use of the devices. Overall, the nonusers formed 59 and 64 percent of the recorded users contacted in Bharuch and Panchmahals districts, respectively. The estimates of nonuse of contraceptives in the follow-up survey are high enough to reconcile most of the observed discrepancy between the two sets of estimates of contraceptive prevalence.