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P Yakoboski

Publications and source records attributed to P Yakoboski.

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Retirement plans, personal saving, and saving adequacy.

This Issue Brief addresses three questions raised by recent trends in personal saving: How are national savings measured and what is the meaning of the trends in measured personal saving rates, given what is included and what is not included in those measures? What is the effect of retirement saving programs--in particular, 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts (IRAs)--on personal saving levels? What are the implications of existing saving behavior for the retirement income security of today's workers? The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA), the most commonly referenced gauge of personal saving, is a widely misunderstood measure. One could argue that a complete measure of saving would include increases in wealth through capital gains, but NIPA does not factor accrued and realized capital gains on stocks and other assets into the saving rate. By one measure, accounting for capital gains results in an aggregate personal saving rate of 33 percent--more than double the rate of four decades ago. A major policy question is the impact of tax-qualified retirement saving plans (i.e., IRAs and 401(k) plans) on personal saving rates. Empirical analysis of this issue is extremely challenging and findings have been contradictory. These programs now represent an enormous store of retirement-earmarked wealth in tax-deferred vehicles: Combined, such tax-deferred retirement accounts currently have assets of about $4 trillion. Ninety percent of IRA contributions are now the result of "rollovers" as employees leave employer plans, like 401(k) plans. While leakage from the system remains a challenge, the majority of the assets in the system can be expected to be available to fund workers' retirements. One could argue that, from a retirement income security perspective, workers in general are better off because IRA and 401(k) programs exist. Surely, many of the dollars in these programs would have been saved even without the programs; but they would not necessarily have been earmarked for retirement and been available to fund retirement expenses. As rollovers become larger, this "partnership" of employment-based qualified plans and IRAs will grow even more important. The evidence indicates that many groups of American workers appear unlikely to be able to afford a retirement that maintains their current lifestyle (at least not without working more years than currently planned). Consensus does not exist on how many workers are at risk or the typical magnitude of their retirement saving shortfall. There is a consensus, however, that a substantial number of individuals are at risk. This is not surprising--despite the fact that the 70 percent of workers are saving for retirement--since relatively few workers know how much it is that they need to accumulate to fund their retirement.

Adult↗

Retirement Confidence Survey 2000 including results from the RCS Minority Survey and the Small Employer Retirement Survey.

The year 2000 represents the 10th anniversary of the Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS), and the third year for the Minority RCS and Small Employer Retirement Survey (SERS). Key RCS findings over the past 10 years include: The fraction of workers saving for retirement has trended upward, and today 80 percent of households report that they have begun to save. The fraction of workers who have attempted to calculate how much they need to save for retirement has risen noticeably over the past several years. Today, 56 percent of households report that they have attempted the calculation. One-half of workers who have attempted such a calculation report that it has changed their behavior, such as saving more and/or changing where they invest their retirement savings. Workers who have done the calculation appear to be in better shape regarding their retirement finances. Worker confidence in the ability of Social Security to maintain benefit levels bottomed out in 1994 and 1995. Workers today are just as confident as they were in 1992, although the majority remain not confident in Social Security. Regarding overall retirement confidence, Hispanic-Americans tend to be the least confident among the surveyed minority groups that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout their retirement years. Key SERS findings include: While cost and administrative issues do matter to small employers, they are not the primary reasons for low plan sponsorship rates. Employee-related reasons are most often cited as the most important factor for not offering a retirement plan. Business-related reasons, such as profitability, are also a main decision-driver. It is important to note what small employers without plans do not know about plan sponsorship. Small employers that do sponsor a retirement plan report that offering a plan has a positive impact on both their ability to attract and retain quality employees and the attitude and performance of their employees. The survey results indicate that many small company nonsponsors may not be aware of such potential business benefits from plan sponsorship. In addition, many nonsponsors are unaware of the plan options available to them, in particular the ones created specifically for small employers, such as SIMPLE and SEP retirement plans. Therefore, some small employers may be making a premature decision not to sponsor a plan based on incomplete information.

Aged↗

The 1999 Small Employer Retirement Survey: building a better mousetrap is not enough.

As of 1995, there were 5.3 million small-employer firms (100 or fewer employees) in the United States. These small firms employed 38.0 million individuals, representing 38 percent of all employment. Therefore, low retirement plan coverage among small employers directly affects a sizeable fraction of the national work force. There are a number of reasons why more small employers do not offer retirement plans. Cost and administration-related issues do matter, but for many small employers these take a back seat to other issues. For some, the main driver is the financial reality of running a small business: Their revenue is too uncertain to commit to a plan. For others, the most important reasons for not sponsoring a plan are employee-related, e.g., the workers do not consider retirement savings to be a priority, or the employer's work force has such high turnover that it does not make sense to sponsor a plan. Many nonsponsors are unfamiliar with the different retirement plan types available to them as potential plan sponsors, especially the options created specifically for small employers. For example, most nonsponsors said they have never heard of (36 percent) or are not too familiar with (20 percent) SIMPLE plans for small businesses. Fifteen percent of small employers report that they are very likely to start a plan in the next two years, while 24 percent say this is somewhat likely. Nonsponsors report that the two items most likely to lead to serious consideration of sponsoring a plan are an increase in profits (69 percent) and business tax credits for starting a retirement plan (67 percent). Major drivers of low retirement plan sponsorship among small employers are who they employ and the uncertainty of revenue flows. While issues of administrative cost and burden matter, they are only part of the puzzle. Therefore, the solution is not simply "build it and they will come," by creating simpler and simpler retirement plans geared to small businesses. Rather, it is build it and they will come once the business reaches a certain level of profitability and stability, and once retirement planning and saving are more of a priority for the small employer's workers.

Aged↗

The evolution of retirement: results of the 1999 Retirement Confidence Survey.

The ninth annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) shows continued evidence of progress in the drive for retirement income security for American workers. However, there are still hurdles to overcome. The RCS tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into distinct groups based on their individual views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The retirement envisioned by today's workers looks different in many respects from that now experienced by current retirees. Today's workers expect to work longer than current retirees actually worked before retiring--and many say they plan to work for pay after they retire. Twenty-four percent of workers reported that they are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement, and 45 percent reported that they are somewhat confident. However, there are indications that many may be falsely confident. The good news is that 70 percent of Americans are saving for retirement, and a growing percentage (49 percent) are going further and determining how much they need to save to fund their retirement. The bad news is that 30 percent of Americans have not begun to save for their retirement, and 51 percent have never tried to determine how much they need to save. Employers play a major role in ensuring adequate retirement preparation. Forty percent of all workers said they expect that money provided by their employer will be a major source of retirement income. Forty-six percent expect the money they put into a retirement plan at work to be a major source of income. The availability of a retirement plan at work is credited by 48 percent of savers as motivation to save. While worker education is a point of emphasis among both employers and policymakers, more remains to be done. For example, 59 percent of workers expect to be eligible for full Social Security benefits sooner than they actually will be, and an additional 19 percent admit they do not know when they will be eligible. There is evidence that education can have an impact on individual behavior. Forty percent of workers receiving educational material at work in the last year said that information caused them to begin saving (19 percent) or resume saving (21 percent) for retirement, while 40 percent said they changed the amount they were contributing to a retirement savings plan and 41 percent changed the allocation of their money in a retirement savings plan.

Attitude↗

What is your savings personality? The 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey.

This Issue Brief presents the findings of the 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS). The survey tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into six distinct groups, based on their very different views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The six personality types identified in the RCS are Deniers (10 percent of the population), Strugglers (9 percent), Impulsives (20 percent), Cautious Savers (21 percent), Planners (23 percent), and Retiring Savers (17 percent). The survey shows that working Americans have become more focused on retirement; 45 percent have tried to determine how much they need to save before they retire, up from 32 percent in 1996. Americans' growing attention to their retirement has not increased their retirement income confidence. Since 1993, the portion of working Americans who are very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has consistently ranged from 20 percent to 25 percent. Sixty-three percent of Americans have begun to save for retirement. Fifty-five percent of those not saving for retirement say it is reasonably possible for them to save $20 per week (over $1,000 per year). In addition, 57 percent of workers who have begun to save say that it is reasonably possible for them to save an additional $20 per week. The findings demonstrate the continuing need for broad-based educational efforts designed to make retirement savings a priority for individuals. The good news is the evidence that education can have a real impact at the individual level. For the first time the 1998 RCS examined retirement planning, saving, and attitudes across ethnic groups (African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and whites). African-Americans are the least confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans are less likely than whites and Asian-Americans to have saved any money for retirement. Among those saving for retirement, individuals' confidence that they are investing their retirement savings wisely does not differ among ethnic groups. Hispanic-Americans are less likely than whites and Asian-Americans to have made an attempt to determine how much money they will need to have saved by the time they retire.

Attitude↗

Small employers and the challenge of sponsoring a retirement plan: results of the 1998 Small Employer Retirement Survey.

Forty-two million individuals work for small employers; 9 million are participating in an employment-based retirement plan, while 33 million are not participating in a plan. This Issue Brief examines the barriers that prevent small employers from sponsoring a retirement plan, their level of knowledge about plans, and changes that might lead to plan sponsorship. It also examines the motivations of small employers that sponsor retirement plans. Small employers identify three main reasons for not offering a plan: employees' preferences for wages and/or other benefits, administrative costs, and uncertain revenue that makes it difficult to commit to a plan. Small employers without plans report being familiar with 401(k) and profit-sharing plans, but little else. Forty-seven percent report never having heard of the savings incentive match plan for employees (SIMPLE), and 55 percent report never having heard of simplified employee pensions (SEPs). There is apparent misunderstanding about retirement plans among small employers that do not sponsor one, especially with regard to costs. For example, 35 percent do not know that a plan can be set up for less than $2,000. What changes would lead to serious consideration of retirement plan sponsorship? In order of reported importance: increased company profits (66 percent), a business tax credit (64 percent), reduced administrative requirements (50 percent), demand from employees (49 percent), allowing key executives to save more in the plan (49 percent), and easing, i.e., lengthening, of vesting requirements (40 percent). Many small employers that sponsor a retirement plan cite business reasons among their motivations. Sixty-eight percent cite a "positive effect on employee attitude and performance" as a major reason for offering a plan. Fifty-six percent cite a "competitive advantage in employee recruitment and retention" as a major reason. Small employers with a retirement plan report direct benefits from sponsorship, but many of those without plans appear unaware of these potential benefits. The 1998 SERS indicates that effective public policy must educate workers regarding the need to make retirement planning and saving a priority, in addition to addressing employer concerns about offering plans. Furthermore, there is a need to educate small employers about the options available to them and what these options entail. Finally, it appears that many employers need to be informed of the potential benefits from plan sponsorship.

Data Collection↗

Baby boomers in retirement: what are their prospects?

This Issue Brief examines the baby boomers' retirement income prospects by analyzing trends in the elderly's income and pension participation among workers; examining saving behavior and critically evaluating studies of the adequacy of the boomers' saving; and looking at tenure trends, lump-sum distribution preservation, and changes in Social Security benefits. Since the mid 1970s, the real median income of individuals aged 65 and over has increased 18 percent. Sources of income have shifted, with employment-based pensions increasing and earnings and asset income decreasing as a proportion of income. The boomers' prospects are partly dependent on participation in employment-based retirement plans. After decreases in the sponsorship rates, participation rates, and vesting rates of workers during the 1980s, all three percentages increased during the early 1990s. Data do not support the perception that the U.S. work force is becoming increasingly mobile. Tenure levels for prime age workers in the 1980s and beginning of the 1990s were higher than those of previous decades. Still, in response to competitive pressures, employers may not offer the security of paternalistic benefit packages as in the past. Various studies have reached different conclusions regarding the adequacy of the boomers' financial preparation for retirement. Evidence indicates that boomers, in general, will enjoy a retirement standard of living exceeding that of their parents. It is less clear whether they will maintain a standard of living in retirement comparable to that of their working years. To the extent they are willing to tap housing wealth, they would appear at this early stage to be in good shape. Federal fiscal policy decisions will impact boomers by affecting their disposable income today, and thus their ability to save, as well as the benefits they will receive in retirement through Social Security and Medicare. The boomers are 17 to 35 years away from age 65. Given heterogeneity of the boomers, research is needed to identify what specific groups within the generation are at risk and the magnitude of that risk. Groups that would now appear to be at risk to some degree include non-homeowners, the less educated, the single, and the youngest boomers.

Aged↗

Employment-based health benefits: analysis of the April 1993 Current Population Survey.

The April 1993 CPS differs from the March 1993 CPS in a number of respects. The April 1993 CPS supplement surveys only workers, whereas the March CPS examines the noncash benefits received by all Americans. The April CPS asks workers about health coverage in the week in which the questions were fielded, whereas the March CPS asks about coverage in the preceding year. In April 1993, there were 112.5 million civilian American workers between the ages of 18 and 64 with jobs. Eighty-two million (73 percent) of them worked for an employer that sponsored a health insurance plan, and 65 million (58 percent of all workers) participated in their employer's health plan. About one-third of workers at firms with fewer than 10 employees had employers who offer health benefits; about one-quarter of all of the workers in these firms participated in their employer's plan. Conversely, 94 percent of workers at firms with more than 1,000 employees had an employer who sponsored health benefits, and over 77 percent of these workers participated in their employer's plan. There are 16.5 million American workers whose employers sponsored health benefits but who did not participate in these benefits. Over one-half of these workers (8.5 million) chose not to be covered. Another 36 percent of these workers (5.9 million) did not participate because they were ineligible or denied coverage. Over 66 percent of the ineligible workers did not participate because they were part-time, contract, or temporary workers. Another 26 percent had not yet completed a probationary period. Among the reasons that those who chose not to participate in their employer's coverage, the vast majority (75 percent) stated they were covered by another health care plan. Twenty-nine percent stated that they chose not to purchase coverage because it was too costly or that they did not need or want the coverage. In 1993, there were 16.7 million workers with no health insurance coverage. The vast majority of these workers (95 percent) were employed by private employers. Sixty-six percent of the workers with no health insurance coverage were self-employed or worked for firms with fewer than 100 employees.

Adult↗