'Non-specific effects of vaccines'--an important analytical insight, and call for a workshop.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Paul E M Fine.
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OBJECTIVES: Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), a live attenuated Mycobacterium bovis vaccine, poses a risk to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children; this risk has not been well quantified. We estimate the risk of disseminated BCG disease in HIV-infected children in a setting highly endemic for tuberculosis and HIV. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective hospital-based surveillance study in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Clinical and laboratory-confirmed cases of disseminated BCG disease in children<1 year of age from January 2002 to December 2004 at a referral hospital were used as numerator data. Denominator data for calculations of disseminated BCG risk were obtained through estimating the total number of HIV-infected infants receiving BCG based on the known vaccination coverage in the study setting, combined with population data on the total number of children<1 year of age, the known HIV prevalence amongst women attending public antenatal care facilities and different scenarios (5-15%) for the rate of vertical HIV transmission. RESULTS: Nine cases of disseminated BCG disease were identified over the study period, seven of these were in HIV-infected infants. The estimated risk for HIV-infected infants to develop disseminated BCG disease, given a 95% BCG coverage and an HIV prevalence of 12.4-15.4% amongst women, were as follows for different scenarios of vertical HIV transmission: 329-417/100,000 vaccinees (assuming 5% vertical HIV transmission), 164-208/100,000 vaccinees (assuming 10% vertical HIV transmission) and 110-139/100,000 vaccinees (assuming 15% vertical HIV transmission). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of disseminated BCG disease is increased several hundred fold in HIV-infected infants compared to the documented risk in HIV-uninfected infants. Data on the protective effect of BCG in HIV-exposed and infected children is lacking. Population- and hospital-based surveillance is vitally important to more accurately estimate the safety and benefits of BCG in HIV-exposed and infected infants.
The immunogenicity and reactogenicity, in British schoolchildren, of the newly introduced Danish-SSI 1331 BCG vaccine was compared with that of the previously used Glaxo-Evans 1077 BCG vaccine. Interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) response to M. tuberculosis purified protein derivative (M.tb PPD) in a 6-day whole blood assay and delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) to tuberculin PPD were determined before and 1 year after receiving BCG or no vaccination. Scar size was measured 1 year after vaccination. There was no evidence of a difference in immunogenicity (IFN-gamma and DTH conversion rates) but evidence of lower reactogenicity (scar size) with Danish-SSI 1331 compared to Glaxo-Evans 1077 vaccines.
In a population-based study in northern Malawi we investigated HIV-1 subtype C gag and env gene sequences associated with long-term survival. DNA samples were available from 31 individuals surviving between population surveys carried out in the 1980s and 1990s. Most survivors with paired sequences dating from the 1980s and the 1990s had a three codon deletion in the gag p17 region of the sequence retrieved from the sample collected in the 1990s that was not present in the sequence from the same individual dating from the 1980s. This deletion was also not present in any other 1980s sequences from Malawi, but was common in samples collected in Malawi in the 1990s. The deletion is equivalent to the loss of three amino acids in the D helix region of the gag protein, and may be associated with longer survival and onward transmission.
The genus Mycobacterium includes many species that are commonly found in the environment (in soil and water or associated with plants and animals), as well as species that are responsible for two major human diseases, tuberculosis (Mycobacterium tuberculosis) and leprosy (Mycobacterium leprae). The distribution of environmental mycobacteria was investigated in the context of a long-term study of leprosy, tuberculosis, Mycobacterium bovis BCG vaccination, and the responses of individuals to various mycobacterial antigens in Karonga District, northern Malawi, where epidemiological studies had indicated previously that people may be exposed to different mycobacterial species in the northern and southern parts of the district. A total of 148 soil samples and 24 water samples were collected from various locations and examined to determine the presence of mycobacteria. The detection method involved semiselective culturing and acid-fast staining, following decontamination of samples to enrich mycobacteria and reduce the numbers of other microorganisms, or PCR with primers specific for the mycobacterial 16S rRNA gene, using DNA extracted directly from soil and water samples. Mycobacteria were detected in the majority of the samples, and subsequent sequence analysis of PCR products amplified directly from soil DNA indicated that most of the products were related to known environmental mycobacteria. For both methods the rates of recovery were consistently higher for dry season samples than for wet season samples. All isolates cultured from soil appeared to be strains of Mycobacterium fortuitum. This study revealed a complex pattern for the environmental mycobacterial flora but identified no clear differences between the northern and southern parts of Karonga District.
We conducted the first molecular study of tuberculosis (TB) to estimate the role of household contact and transmission from HIV-positive putative source contacts (PSCs) in a high HIV-prevalence area. TB patients in a long-term population-based study in Malawi were asked about past contact with TB. DNA fingerprinting was used to define clusters of cases with identical strains. Among 143 epidemiologically defined PSC-case pairs, fingerprinting confirmed transmission for 44% of household and family contacts and 18% of other contacts. Transmission was less likely to be confirmed if the PSC were HIV positive than if he or she was HIV negative (odds ratio 0.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14-0.74). Overall, epidemiologic links were found for 11% of 754 fingerprint-clustered cases. We estimate that 9%-13% of TB cases were attributable to recent transmission from identifiable close contacts and that nearly half of the TB cases arising from recent infection had acquired the infection from HIV-positive patients.
Mycobacterium bovis bacille Calmette Guerin vaccination protects against pulmonary tuberculosis in the United Kingdom but not in Malawi. We investigated whether a difference in the clonal T-cell response to BCG vaccination might account for this. The results of clonal analysis were compared to those obtained by skin testing and in a whole blood interferon gamma assay. Pre-vaccination antigen specific T-cell clones were detected, but the majority of clones present 12 months after vaccination were not present earlier. The magnitude of the clonal response did not correlate well with results of the other assays. These data indicate that single assays may not be reliable and that a stable memory T-cell repertoire is slow to develop.
BACKGROUND: The proportion of cases of tuberculosis due to recent infection can be estimated in long-term population-based studies using molecular techniques. Here, we present what is, to our knowledge, the first such study in an area with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. METHODS: All patients with tuberculosis in Karonga District, Malawi, were interviewed. Isolates were genotyped using restriction-fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP) patterns. Strains were considered to be "clustered" if at least 1 other patient had an isolate with an identical pattern. RESULTS: RFLP results were available from 83% of culture-positive patients from late 1995 to early 2003. When strains with <5 bands were excluded, 72% (682/948) were clustered. Maximum clustering was reached using a 4-year window, with an estimated two-thirds of cases due to recent transmission. The proportion clustered decreased with age and varied by area of residence. In older adults, clustering was less common in men and more common in patients who were HIV positive (adjusted odds ratio, 5.1 [95% confidence interval, 2.1-12.6]). CONCLUSIONS: The proportion clustered found in the present study was among the highest in the world, suggesting high rates of recent transmission. The association with HIV infection in older adults may suggest that HIV has a greater impact on disease caused by recent transmission than on that caused by reactivation.
In a 7-year population-based study in Malawi, we showed that Beijing genotype tuberculosis (TB) increased as a proportion of TB cases. All the Beijing genotype strains were fully drug sensitive. Contact histories, TB type, and case-fatality rates were similar for Beijing and non-Beijing genotype TB.
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BACKGROUND: DNA fingerprint patterns of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains vary within individuals and between epidemiologically linked individuals because of pattern evolution, new infections, and laboratory error. We explored the importance of these factors. METHODS: Cultures from individuals in northern Malawi who had been diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) during 1996-2001 were fingerprinted with restriction fragment-length polymorphism (RFLP). Probable laboratory error was inferred by use of dates or isolated positive cultures. Pattern evolution was explored within and between individuals, and the relative importance of relapse and reinfection was estimated in individuals with recurrent TB. RESULTS: RFLP results were available for 930 isolates from 806 individuals. The maximum laboratory-error rate was 3.9%. Pattern evolution was more common in linked individuals (17%) than on relapse (11%) or during treatment (3%). Twenty individuals had recurrent TB after completing treatment: in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals, 7 of 12 recurrences were due to reinfection, compared with 0 of 8 in HIV-negative individuals (P=.01). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of DNA fingerprint-pattern evolution is not linear, and rates of change calculated from repeat cultures within individuals may not be applicable to transmission between individuals. The high proportion of recurrence due to reinfection found in HIV-positive individuals suggests that secondary prophylaxis and/or antiretroviral treatments are needed for such individuals.
OBJECTIVE: To document the changing incidence and patterns of tuberculosis (TB) in rural Africa and the extent to which they are influenced by HIV. METHODS: As part of longstanding epidemiological studies in Karonga District, Malawi, a series of case control studies of TB and HIV were conducted from 1988 onwards. Data from these studies, from a total population survey, and from the Malawi national census have been used to reconstruct the changes in the TB epidemic in the area from 1988 to 2001, examining the role of HIV. RESULTS: The incidence of all confirmed TB, and of new smear-positive TB, in adults increased to peak in the late 1990s but appears to have decreased since. Two-thirds of cases are now HIV positive. The rise in incidence was greatest in the 30-44-year-old age group and was particularly marked for women, leading to a decrease in the male : female ratio for TB incidence from 1.3 to 0.8. The proportion of new smear-positive TB cases attributable to HIV increased from 17% in 1988-1990 to 57% in 2000-2001, but the estimated rate of smear-positive TB in the absence of HIV decreased from 0.78/1000 to 0.45/1000. CONCLUSIONS: Without HIV the incidence of smear-positive TB would have fallen in this population. Instead it has risen and is predominantly affecting young adults and women. There is some evidence that the HIV-associated TB epidemic may have passed its peak.
Now that the global eradication of wild poliovirus is almost within sight, planning for the post-certification era is becoming a priority issue. It is agreed that a stockpile of appropriate polio vaccines will need to be established, and a surveillance and response capacity will need to be maintained, in order to protect the world against any possible future outbreaks attributable either to the persistence of wild poliovirus or vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) or to the unintentional or intentional release of poliovirus from a laboratory or vaccine store. Although it has been suggested that the stockpile should consist of monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV), many questions remain concerning its nature, financing, management, and use--in particular, because of uncertainties over future national vaccination policies, and over the availability of different vaccines, after the certification of wild poliovirus eradication. There are further uncertainties concerning the possible role and efficacy of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) used either routinely or in outbreak control in low-hygiene settings, the potential for rapid geographical spread of polioviruses should an outbreak occur after certification, and the risks inherent in introducing additional oral polio vaccine (OPV) viruses into populations in which the vaccine coverage and prevalence of immunity have declined, and which may thus favour the spread of VDPVs. Given these important gaps in knowledge, no country should discontinue polio vaccination until a coordinated policy for the post-certification era has been developed and the recommended measures have been put in place.
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To investigate the role of innate immunity in variable efficacy of Mycobacterium bovis BCG vaccination in Malawi and the United Kingdom, we examined 24-h tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta), and IL-10 responses to mycobacterial purified protein derivatives (PPDs). The rank order in stimulatory potency for different PPDs was the same for all three cytokines. Before vaccination Malawians made higher pro- and anti-inflammatory responses than did United Kingdom subjects. Fewer than 5% of United Kingdom subjects made IL-10 in response to any PPD, compared to 19 to 57% responders among Malawians. Priming for regulatory IL-10 may contribute to the smaller increase in gamma interferon responses in Malawians compared to United Kingdom subjects following BCG vaccination.
Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype C is responsible for more than 55% of HIV-1 infections worldwide. When this subtype first emerged is unknown. We have analyzed all available gag (p17 and p24) and env (C2-V3) subtype C sequences with known sampling dates, which ranged from 1983 to 2000. The majority of these sequences come from the Karonga District in Malawi and include some of the earliest known subtype C sequences. Linear regression analyses of sequence divergence estimates (with four different approaches) were plotted against sample year to estimate the year in which there was zero divergence from the reconstructed ancestral sequence. Here we suggest that the most recent common ancestor of subtype C appeared in the mid- to late 1960s. Sensitivity analyses, by which possible biases due to oversampling from one district were explored, gave very similar estimates.
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis on the survival of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive tuberculosis (TB) patients. METHODS: A cohort study with a historical comparison group was conducted. End-of-treatment outcomes and 18-month survival were compared between TB patients registered in 1999 and patients registered in 2000 in Karonga District, Malawi. Case ascertainment, treatment and outpatient follow-up were identical in the two years except that in 2000 cotrimoxazole prophylaxis was offered to HIV-positive patients in addition to routine care. The prophylaxis was provided from the time a patient was identified as HIV-positive until 12 months after registration. Analyses were carried out on an intention-to-treat basis for all TB patients, and also separately by HIV status, TB type and certainty of diagnosis. FINDINGS: 355 and 362 TB patients were registered in 1999 and 2000, respectively; 70% were HIV-positive. The overall case fatality rate fell from 37% to 29%, i.e. for every 12.5 TB patients treated, one death was averted. Case fatality rates were unchanged between the two years in HIV-negative patients, but fell in HIV-positive patients from 43% to 24%. The improved survival became apparent after the first 2 months and was maintained beyond the end of treatment. The improvement was most marked in patients with smear-positive TB and others with confirmed TB diagnoses. CONCLUSION: Survival of HIV-positive TB patients improved dramatically with the addition of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis to the treatment regimen. The improvement can be attributed to cotrimoxazole because other factors were unchanged and the survival of HIV-negative patients was not improved. Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis should therefore be added to the routine care of HIV-positive TB patients.