Biomedical subjects

Paul Switzer

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Switzer.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2004

Mortality displacement and distributed lag models.

Numerous time-series studies have investigated the association between daily mortality and daily ambient particulate air pollution concentrations (PM). The consensus from these studies is that increases in PM are associated with increases in daily mortality. However, it may be that increases in PM only hasten the deaths of individuals in a small, frail subset of the population whose longevity is short even in the absence of particulate air pollution. This hypothesis has been termed mortality displacement or harvesting. Distributed lag models (DLM) have been used to explore mortality effects of air pollution that are spread over multiple days, and DLM coefficients have been proposed as indicators of mortality displacement. We investigate statistical properties of DLM coefficients in the context of mortality displacement using simulation studies with frail population models. Our simulations use actual PM time series, as well as actual weather time series included as confounders. Our simulations show that DLM coefficients can have large bias when the mean lifetime of individuals in the frail subset of the population is more than a few weeks, and that the magnitude of this bias increases as the mean lifetime of individuals in the frail subset of the population increases. We conclude that DLM coefficients may be misleading as an indicator of mortality displacement, in the context of the frail population models that we explored.

Air Pollutants↗

PubMed2003

Analytical solutions to compartmental indoor air quality models with application to environmental tobacco smoke concentrations measured in a house.

This paper derives the analytical solutions to multi-compartment indoor air quality models for predicting indoor air pollutant concentrations in the home and evaluates the solutions using experimental measurements in the rooms of a single-story residence. The model uses Laplace transform methods to solve the mass balance equations for two interconnected compartments, obtaining analytical solutions that can be applied without a computer. Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) sources such as the cigarette typically emit pollutants for relatively short times (7-11 min) and are represented mathematically by a "rectangular" source emission time function, or approximated by a short-duration source called an "impulse" time function. Other time-varying indoor sources also can be represented by Laplace transforms. The two-compartment model is more complicated than the single-compartment model and has more parameters, including the cigarette or combustion source emission rate as a function of time, room volumes, compartmental air change rates, and interzonal air flow factors expressed as dimensionless ratios. This paper provides analytical solutions for the impulse, step (Heaviside), and rectangular source emission time functions. It evaluates the indoor model in an unoccupied two-bedroom home using cigars and cigarettes as sources with continuous measurements of carbon monoxide (CO), respirable suspended particles (RSP), and particulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPAH). Fine particle mass concentrations (RSP or PM3.5) are measured using real-time monitors. In our experiments, simultaneous measurements of concentrations at three heights in a bedroom confirm an important assumption of the model-spatial uniformity of mixing. The parameter values of the two-compartment model were obtained using a "grid search" optimization method, and the predicted solutions agreed well with the measured concentration time series in the rooms of the home. The door and window positions in each room had considerable effect on the pollutant concentrations observed in the home. Because of the small volumes and low air change rates of most homes, indoor pollutant concentrations from smoking activity in a home can be very high and can persist at measurable levels indoors for many hours.

Air Movements↗

PubMed2003

An analytic framework fo space-time aberrancy detection in public health surveillance data.

Public health surveillance is changing in response to concerns about bioterrorism, which have increased the pressure for early detection of epidemics. Rapid detection necessitates following multiple non-specific indicators and accounting for spatial structure. No single analytic method can meet all of these requirements for all data sources and all surveillance goals. Analytic methods must be selected and configured to meet a surveillance goal, but there are no uniform criteria to guide the selection and configuration process. In this paper, we describe work towards the development of an analytic framework for space-time aberrancy detection in public health surveillance data. The framework decomposes surveillance analysis into sub-tasks and identifies knowledge that can facilitate selection of methods to accomplish sub-tasks.

Bioterrorism↗