Natural history of morbid obesity without surgical intervention.
BACKGROUND: To study the mortality among morbidly obese patients qualifying for bariatric surgery. Mortality from bariatric surgery for morbid obesity has been widely reported; however, little is known about the mortality in morbidly obese patients who defer surgery. METHODS: Consecutive patients evaluated for bariatric surgery with an initial encounter between 1997 and 2004 were identified. The Social Security Death Index and office records were used to identify mortality through 2006. We conducted telephone interviews to determine whether the 305 patients who did not undergo bariatric surgery at our institution had undergone the surgery elsewhere. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we compared the mortality in patients undergoing surgery with that of those who did not. To evaluate bias resulting from missing data, we conducted analyses assuming that all patients with missing data had (1) undergone surgery and (2) not undergone surgery. RESULTS: A total of 908 patients underwent bariatric surgery (880 patients at our institution and 28 patients elsewhere). A total of 112 patients did not undergo surgery. Data regarding surgery on 165 patients could not be obtained. The mortality in those patients who did not undergo surgery was 14.3% compared with 2.9% for those who did undergo surgery. Adjusting for age, gender, and body mass index, patients who had undergone surgery had an 82% reduction in mortality (hazard ratio 0.18, 95% confidence interval 0.09-0.35, P <.0001). Sensitivity analysis, assuming that all patients with missing data received surgery resulted in an 85% mortality reduction (P <.001) and assuming that patients did not receive surgery resulted in a 50% mortality reduction (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality among morbidly obese patients without surgery was 14.3% during the study period. Surgical intervention offered a 50%-85% mortality reduction benefit.