Pneumonia: the leading killer of children.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Peter Salama.
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BACKGROUND: The fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) calls for a two-thirds' reduction between 1990 and 2015 in deaths of children younger than five years; achieving this will require widespread use of effective interventions, especially in poor countries. We present the first report of the Child Survival Countdown, a worldwide effort to monitor coverage of key child-survival interventions in 60 countries with the world's highest numbers or rates of child mortality. METHODS: In 2005, we developed a profile for each of the 60 countries to summarise information on coverage with essential child survival interventions. The profiles also present information on demographics, nutritional status, major causes of death in children under 5 years of age, and the status of selected health policies. Progress toward the fourth MDG is summarised by comparing the average annual rate of reduction in under-5 mortality in each country with that needed to achieve the goal. The profiles also include a comparison of the proportions of children in the poorest and richest quintiles of the population who received six or more essential prevention interventions. Each country's progress (as measured by defined indicators of intervention coverage) was put into one of three groups created on the basis of international targets: "on track"; "watch and act"; and "high alert". For indicators without targets, arbitrary thresholds for high, middle, and low performance across the 60 countries were used as a basis for categorisation. FINDINGS: Only seven countries are on track to met MDG-4, 39 countries are making some progress, although they need to accelerate the speed, and 14 countries are cause for serious concern. Coverage of the key child survival interventions remains critically low, although some countries have made substantial improvements in increasing the proportion of mothers and children with access to life saving interventions by as much as ten percentage points in 2 years. Children from the poorest families were less likely than those from wealthier families to have received at least six essential prevention interventions. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that tremendous efforts are urgently needed to achieve the MDG for child survival. Profiles for each country show where efforts need to be intensified, and highlight the extent to which prevention interventions are being delivered equitably and reaching poor families. This first report also shows country-specific improvements in coverage and highlights missed opportunities. The "Countdown to 2015" will report on progress every 2 years as a strategy for increasing accountability worldwide for progress in child survival.
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Little is known about the HIV epidemic in conflict-affected southern Sudan. During 2002-2003, we conducted behavioral and biological surveillance surveys and sequential sampling in antenatal clinics in Yei, Western Equatoria, and Rumbek, Bar-el-Ghazal. HIV prevalence among individuals aged 15-49 years ranged between 0.4% in Rumbek town and 4.4% in Yei town, and among pregnant women between 0.8 and 3.0%, respectively. After the recent peace agreement, targeted prevention programmes are urgently needed to prevent further spread.
A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision.
This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of, and the return on the investment in, the 2002 catch-up and the 2003 follow-up measles campaigns in Afghanistan from the perspective of the donor. The catch-up campaign targeted nearly 12 million children aged between six months and 12 years, while the follow-up campaign targeted over five million children aged between 9 and 59 months. Both campaigns successfully vaccinated approximately 96 per cent of the respective target populations, and are expected to avert an estimated 301,000 measles deaths over the next 10 years. The average cost per dose of measles vaccine delivered was USD 0.40. The cost per death prevented is USD 23.6, assuming a case fatality rate of 10 per cent and a discount rate of three per cent. With more than 42,000 measles deaths avoided for every one million US dollars spent, the campaigns are an excellent public health investment for precluding childhood mortality in a country affected by a complex emergency.
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The mental health consequences of exposure to traumatic events and the risk factors for psychological morbidity among expatriate and Kosovar Albanian humanitarian aid workers have not been well studied. In June 2000, we used standardised screening tools to survey 285 (69.5%) of 410 expatriate aid workers and 325 (75.8%) of 429 Kosovar Albanian aid workers from 22 humanitarian organizations that were implementing health programmes in Kosovo. The mean number of trauma events experienced by expatriates was 2.8 (standard deviation: 2.7) and by Kosovar staff 3.2 (standard deviation: 2.8). Although only 1.1% of expatriate and 6.2% of Kosovar aid workers reported symptoms consistent with the diagnosis for post-traumatic stress disorder, 17.2% and 16.9%, respectively, reported symptoms satisfying the definition of depression. Regression analysis demonstrated that the number of trauma events experienced was significantly associated with depression for the two sets of workers. Organisational support services may be an important mediating factor and should be targeted at both groups.
CONTEXT: During 1999 and 2000, approximately 10 million people were affected by famine in Ethiopia. Results of nutrition assessments and surveys conducted by humanitarian organizations were used by donors and government agencies to determine needs for food aid and to make other decisions on geographic allocation of limited resources; however, accurate results might have been hampered by methodological errors. OBJECTIVES: To identify common methodological errors in nutrition assessments and surveys and to provide practical recommendations for improvement. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nutrition assessments and surveys (n = 125) conducted by 14 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in 54 woredas (districts) in Ethiopia from May 1, 1999, through July 31, 2000. Surveys were ranked as valid and precise according to 5 criteria: use of population proportional to size sampling, sample size, number of clusters, number of children per cluster, and use of weight-for-height index. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number and proportion of surveys that used standard, internationally accepted methods and reported valid and precise results. RESULTS: Fifty-eight of the 125 surveys (46%) were not intended to be standard 30 x 30 cluster surveys. Of the remaining 67 surveys, 6 (9%) met predetermined criteria for validity and precision. All 67 used the anthropometric index of weight-for-height, with 58 (87%) reporting z scores. Fifty-four (81%) used nonrandom sampling without consideration of population size and 6 (9%) had sample sizes of fewer than 500 persons. CONCLUSIONS: Major methodological errors were identified among 30 x 30 cluster surveys designed to measure acute malnutrition prevalence in Ethiopia during the famine of 1999-2000. Donor agencies and NGOs should be educated about the need for improved quality of nutrition assessments and their essential role in directing allocation of scarce food resources.
In March 2002, there were reports of a hemorrhagic fever outbreak in western Afghanistan. It was later confirmed that the hemorrhagic symptoms and increased mortality were actually due to scurvy. Most aid workers did not include scurvy in the initial differential diagnosis because it is uncommon throughout the world and has mainly been reported in refugee populations in recent times. A rapid assessment confirmed the cases clinically, estimated a prevalence rate of 6.3% (a severe public health problem), and determined that the attack rates peaked each year in January and February (the end of the winter). Many Afghans have limited dietary diversity due to isolated locations, lengthy winters, the continuing drought of the last four years, asset depletion, and loss of livelihood. After numerous food and fortification options to prevent future outbreaks had been considered, vitamin C tablet supplementation was selected because of the relatively rapid response time as compared with other prevention methods. A three-month course of vitamin C tablets was distributed to 827 villages in at-risk areas. The tablets were acceptable and compliance was good. No cases of scurvy were reported for the winter of 2002-03. The case study from Afghanistan demonstrates that scurvy can occur in nonrefugee or nondisplaced populations; vitamin C supplementation can be an effective prevention strategy; there is an urgent need to develop field-friendly techniques to diagnose micronutrient-deficiency diseases; food-security tools should be used to assess and predict risks of nutritional deficiencies; and the humanitarian community should address prevention of scurvy in outbreak-prone areas.
Measles is a major cause of mortality in complex emergencies. Both high vaccination coverage and vaccine efficacy are required to prevent major epidemics of measles in such situations. Evaluation of field vaccine efficacy is a critical but underutilized component of program monitoring in emergencies, and is particularly important in rural areas where the integrity of the cold chain is difficult to guarantee. In July 2000, we evaluated the field vaccine efficacy for measles vaccination by comparing the incidence of cases in vaccinated and unvaccinated groups during a two-stage cluster survey of 563 children in Ethiopia. Approximately 30% of the measles cases occurred in vaccinated children. Estimated field vaccine efficacy for measles was 66.9% in children 9-36 months old. The finding of a field vaccine efficacy for measles less than 80% warrants formal assessment of measles vaccine efficacy, particularly in famine emergencies where measles is associated with a high case fatality rate.
BACKGROUND: An estimated 35 million people have been displaced by complex humanitarian emergencies. International humanitarian organisations define policies and provide basic health and nutrition programmes to displaced people in postemergency phase camps. However, many policies and programmes are not based on supporting data. We aimed to identify associations between age-specific mortality and health indicators in displaced people in postemergency phase camps and to define the programme and policy implications of these data. METHODS: In 1998-2000, we obtained and analysed retrospective mortality data for the previous 3 months in 51 postemergency phase camps in seven countries. We did multivariate regression with 18 independent variables that affect crude mortality rates (CMRs) and mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (<5 MRs) in complex emergencies. We compared these results with recommended emergency phase minimum indicators. FINDINGS: Recently established camps had higher CMRs and <5 MRs and fewer local health workers per person than did camps that had been established earlier. Camps that were close to the border or region of conflict or had longer travel times to referral hospitals had higher CMRs than did those located further away or with shorter travel times, and camps with less water per person and high rates of diarrhoea had higher <5 MRs than did those with more water and lower rates of diarrhoea. Distance to border or area of conflict, water quantity, and the number of local health workers per person exceeded the minimum indicators recommended in the emergency phase. INTERPRETATION: Health and nutrition policies and programmes for displaced people in postemergency phase camps should be evidence-based. Programmes in complex emergencies should focus on indicators proven to be associated with mortality. Minimum indicators should be developed for programmes targeting displaced people in postemergency phase camps.
Human rights workers in humanitarian relief settings may be exposed to traumatic events that put them at risk for psychiatric morbidity. We conducted a cross-sectional survey in June 2000 to study the prevalence of psychiatric morbidity among 70 expatriate and Kosovar Albanian staff collecting human nights data in Kosovo. Among those surveyed, elevated levels of anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms were found in 17.1, 8.6, and 7.1% respectively. Multiple regression analysis revealed that human rights workers at risk for elevated anxiety symptoms were those who had worked with their organization longer than 6 months, those who had experienced an armed attack, and those who experienced local hostility. Our study indicates that human rights organizations should consider mental health assessment, care, and prevention programs for their staff.
Major advances have been made during the past decade in the way the international community responds to the health and nutrition consequences of complex emergencies. The public health and clinical response to diseases of acute epidemic potential has improved, especially in camps. Case-fatality rates for severely malnourished children have plummeted because of better protocols and products. Renewed focus is required on the major causes of death in conflict-affected societies--particularly acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea, malaria, measles, neonatal causes, and malnutrition--outside camps and often across regions and even political boundaries. In emergencies in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly southern Africa, HIV/AIDS is also an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Stronger coordination, increased accountability, and a more strategic positioning of non-governmental organisations and UN agencies are crucial to achieving lower maternal and child morbidity and mortality rates in complex emergencies and therefore for reaching the UN's Millennium Development Goals.
Public nutrition is a broad-based, problem-solving approach to addressing malnutrition in complex emergencies that combines analysis of nutritional risk and vulnerability with action-oriented strategies, including policies, programmes, and capacity development. This paper focuses on six broad areas: nutritional assessment, distribution of a general food ration, prevention and treatment of moderate malnutrition, treatment of severe malnutrition in children and adults, prevention and treatment of micronutrient deficiency diseases, and nutritional support for at-risk groups, including infants, pregnant and lactating women, elderly people, and people living with HIV. Learning and documenting good practice from previous emergencies, the promotion of good practice in current emergencies, and adherence to international standards and guidelines have contributed to establishing the field of public nutrition. However, many practical challenges reduce the effectiveness of nutritional interventions in complex emergencies, and important research and programmatic questions remain.
Communicable diseases, alone or in combination with malnutrition, account for most deaths in complex emergencies. Factors promoting disease transmission interact synergistically leading to high incidence rates of diarrhoea, respiratory infection, malaria, and measles. This excess morbidity and mortality is avoidable as effective interventions are available. Adequate shelter, water, food, and sanitation linked to effective case management, immunisation, health education, and disease surveillance are crucial. However, delivery mechanisms are often compromised by loss of health staff, damage to infrastructure, insecurity, and poor co-ordination. Although progress has been made in the control of specific communicable diseases in camp settings, complex emergencies affecting large geographical areas or entire countries pose a greater challenge. Available interventions need to be implemented more systematically in complex emergencies with higher levels of coordination between governments, UN agencies, and non-governmental organisations. In addition, further research is needed to adapt and simplify interventions, and to explore novel diagnostics, vaccines, and therapies.
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