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Philippe Lemey

Publications and source records attributed to Philippe Lemey.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2026

Unraveling the epidemiological and dispersal dynamics of the 2024-2025 chikungunya virus epidemic on Réunion Island.

Réunion Island experienced a massive chikungunya virus epidemic in 2024-2025, with >54,000 confirmed cases. This is the second major chikungunya epidemic on the island, following the first one that peaked 20 years ago. It has been asserted that this new outbreak finds its origin in a single introduction event into the island, offering an opportunity to exploit viral genomic data to understand the epidemiological and dispersal dynamics of the introduced transmission chain. We sequenced >3,000 viral genomes collected during the epidemic. Harnessing this genomic dataset, we used several phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to unravel the paths taken by the transmission chain and the external factors that might have impacted its dispersal and epidemiological dynamics on the island. Our analyses highlight a dispersal pattern in line with a gravity-model dynamic with viral transition events being more frequent from and toward more populated areas. Our analyses reveal that the transmission chain was overall spatially intermixed, with frequent exchanges among residential areas. In addition, we show that the temporal dynamic and intensity of the epidemic were associated with climatic variables, namely temperature and precipitation. Our results also show that in theory, the population immunity-resulting from this epidemic and the previous one (2005-2006)-could be sufficient to explain on its own the decrease in the transmission rate that led to the end of the epidemic. While a short-term resurgence cannot be excluded, the risk of a large-scale circulation of the virus in the human population appears therefore relatively limited in the upcoming seasons.

Reunion↗
PubMed2026

Nosocomial Outbreak of Lassa Fever in Conakry, Guinea, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is endemic in Guinea, with high seroprevalence in the forest region. However, clinical cases have been only anecdotally reported. In August 2022, a nosocomial outbreak occurred at a private clinic in the capital, Conakry, an area previously considered low risk. METHODS: Suspected cases were confirmed by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction within 24 hours. Viremia was monitored during hospitalization, and whole-genome sequencing was performed in-country within 13 days of outbreak detection. Outbreak investigation involved rodent testing in the home village of the suspected primary case. RESULTS: Six cases were laboratory-confirmed, 5 of which were healthcare workers of the clinic. The case fatality rate was 16.7%. Viral RNA remained detectable in blood of survivors for a median of 26 days (interquartile range, 24-41 days) post-disease onset. Epidemiological investigations identified a suspected primary case, who had died of a febrile disease compatible with Lassa fever, had contact with all secondary cases, and had a travel history from Kissidougou area. Three near-complete and 1 partial Lassa virus genomes were recovered from the secondary cases, which phylogenetically clustered with genomes from central Guinea. Consistent with a common transmission source, the 4 genomes were almost identical. Rodent testing revealed a new reservoir area in eastern-central Guinea. CONCLUSIONS: This outbreak highlights the vulnerability of healthcare settings in low-prevalence areas of West Africa to nosocomial Lassa virus transmission due to human mobility. Facilitated by capacity-building programs for viral hemorrhagic fevers, rapid diagnosis, genomic analysis, and ecological assessment enabled an efficient outbreak response and control.

Lassa Fever↗
PubMed2026

Three thousand five hundred years of sheeppox virus evolution inferred from archaeological and codicological genomes.

Sheeppox virus (SPPV) is a major livestock pathogen causing economic hardship through reduced production and death of vulnerable sheep, with written descriptions of sheeppox-like disease recorded since antiquity. We report 21 novel ancient SPPV genomes spanning the Eurasian steppe Bronze Age (∼1700 BCE) to the Early Modern period in Western Europe, including multiple genomes obtained from medieval parchment. We estimate that major capripoxvirus lineages diverged ∼11,500 to 3700 years ago, overlapping known translocations and bio-cultural developments in sheep. Our dataset supports SPPV diverging first within the lineage leading to goatpox virus and lumpy skin disease virus, and that known gene inactivation events within SPPV and goatpox virus occur in our earliest SPPV genomes. These findings reveal that the food security of Eurasian communities has been threatened by sheeppox for more than 3700 years and provide insights into the genomic evolution and potential host adaptation of SPPV.

Animals↗
PubMed2026

Genomic surveillance of a deeply sampled local population reveals age-specific drivers of RSV transmission.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disproportionately causes severe infections among infants and older adults, yet the key age group responsible for viral spread to other age groups remains poorly defined. While current immunization approaches effectively reduce disease severity among the most vulnerable, identifying the core drivers of infection is essential to effectively disrupt population-level transmission. By generating 910 whole-genome viral sequences of RSV from all age groups (<1 to 65+ years) in Connecticut, we identified that children aged 12-35 months are the primary drivers of viral transmission to other age groups. This group significantly shapes the genetic diversity of circulating strains. Furthermore, we found that RSV is introduced into the community through frequent and independent entries from other US regions throughout the year, rather than through a single explosive seasonal introduction or long-term local persistence. Ultimately, our findings justify prevention strategies that expand beyond reducing disease burden to actively prioritizing the reduction of transmission and infection.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2026

Evolutionary history of Jamestown Canyon virus reveals complex multi-vector ecology.

Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) is a historically understudied mosquito-borne virus of increasing concern in North America. We generated 658 whole-genome JCV sequences from northeast United States, including 84% (500/597) of all JCV-positive mosquitoes detected in Connecticut from 1997 to 2022. Then, we applied phylodynamic methods to demonstrate how mosquito phenology structures the maintenance and evolution of JCV. Our phylogenetic analyses estimate that JCV was introduced in the Northeast by at least the early 1700s, and the primary introductions of lineages A and B into Connecticut occurred during the mid-1800s to mid-1900s. Further, we estimate that JCV evolves at a rate of &#x223c;3 &#xd7; 10-5 substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), making it one of the slowest-evolving known RNA viruses, because the virus spends &#x223c;10 months per year in evolutionary stasis while overwintering in mosquito eggs. To investigate ecological drivers of JCV spread in Connecticut, we paired discrete trait and continuous phylogeographic reconstructions with mosquito surveillance data. We estimate that JCV has a low diffusion rate of &#x223c;30-60 km2/year, which is more similar to slow-moving tick-borne viruses than to other mosquito-borne viruses. We found that univoltine Aedes mosquitoes were likely to maintain the virus across years through overwintering in eggs, accounting for its slow evolution and dispersal, while multivoltine mosquitoes contributed to periodic bursts of spatial diffusion and amplification within seasons. We demonstrate the utility of dense sequencing and phylodynamics to disentangle complex transmission cycles, offering a framework for rapidly advancing our evolutionary and ecological knowledge of understudied viruses.

Animals↗
PubMed2025

Parallel algorithms for phylogenetic inference under a structured coalescent approximation.

While advances in molecular epidemiology and computational modeling have enhanced our capacity to track pathogen evolution, the accurate reconstruction of spatiotemporal transmission dynamics remains essential for developing epidemic preparedness frameworks and implementing outbreak response measures. Structured coalescent models offer a phylogeographic framework by restricting lineage coalescence events to geographically proximate host populations. Although the Bayesian structured coalescent approximation (BASTA) provides a tractable approach, contemporary phylogeographic analyses involving dozens of geographic localities and hundreds to thousands of viral genomes substantially exceed the computational capacity of existing implementations. The BASTA likelihood scales cubically with deme count and quadratically with sequence count due to matrix exponentiation and pairwise coalescent probability calculations. Here, we introduce a comprehensive algorithmic restructuring of the structured coalescent likelihood that eliminates redundancies, optimizes memory access, and exposes parallelization opportunities. Our approach reorganizes computations along three dimensions: (i) independent calculation of deme-transition probability matrices across time intervals; (ii) simultaneous evaluation of partial likelihood vectors within temporal slices; and (iii) concurrent aggregation of coalescent probabilities. Algorithmic restructuring cuts average coalescent likelihood computation by 7-8 fold, and parallelization further boosts performance to 10-26 fold, enabling joint phylogeographic analyses of dengue virus across 10 South American countries and H5N1 avian influenza across 20 Eurasian regions to finish in a fraction of prior time. This computational efficiency also enables comparison between backward-in-time structured coalescent approximations and forward-in-time phylogeographic methods, revealing that the former provides appropriately conservative posterior estimates, particularly at intermediate phylogenetic depths. We integrate our implementation into the popular BEAST X and BEAGLE software packages, with an accompanying interface in BEAUti X to easily set up the analyses, providing researchers with an accessible and scalable tool for real-time phylogeographic surveillance of rapidly evolving pathogens.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2025

Genomic epidemiology of clade Ia monkeypox viruses circulating in the Central African Republic in 2022-24: a retrospective cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The spread of monkeypox virus (Orthopoxvirus monkeypox) clade Ib from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to neighbouring countries has raised global concerns, leading to WHO declaring mpox a public health emergency on Aug 14, 2024. We applied genomic epidemiology to investigate the causes of recurrent mpox outbreaks in the Central African Republic. We aimed to determine whether frequent zoonotic spillovers or increased human-to-human transmissions are driving mpox epidemiology. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cross-sectional study of monkeypox virus genomic sequences among PCR-confirmed mpox cases detected in the Central African Republic between Feb 17, 2022, and Sept 17, 2024. We used hybridisation capture coupled to high throughput sequencing to analyse 46 samples from mpox outbreaks that occurred in eight of the 20 prefectures (14 of 35 health districts). Near-complete genomes were used for phylogenomic analyses. FINDINGS: Between Jan 10, 2022, and Sept 15, 2024, 89 mpox cases were confirmed, including 53 cases in the first 9 months of 2024. We generated 41 near-complete genomes from this period, including 33 from 2024. All new and already published monkeypox virus genomes from the Central African Republic belonged to clade Ia. These genomes spanned the phylogenetic diversity of clade Ia viruses, and most likely represented several dozen independent transmission events to humans. The monkeypox virus phylogenetic diversity was geographically structured within the country. Plausibly linked cases often showed indistinguishable genomes. Conversely, we detected identical genomes in cases that epidemiological information would suggest were independent outbreaks. Finally, we found that three distinct viruses caused cases in the capital city of Bangui in July, 2024, with all three detected on the same day (July 24, 2024). We did not detect substantial enrichment of APOBEC3 editing, suggesting limited human-to-human transmission. INTERPRETATION: The data indicate that mpox epidemiology in the Central African Republic is primarily driven by short-lived outbreaks resulting from many independent zoonotic spillover events, particularly in rural areas. Although evidence remains limited, in Bangui additional factors such as movement of people and importation of bushmeat from other regions might be introducing the virus into urban settings. Similar spillover patterns have been observed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The poorly understood nature of monkeypox virus reservoirs in both countries is a regional concern, as frequent spillovers increase the risk of outbreaks leading to sustained human transmission. Beyond strengthening surveillance and developing countermeasures, it is important to better understand the reservoirs and focus on reducing transmission opportunities to prevent further outbreaks. FUNDING: Pasteur Institute of Bangui, Africa CDC, AFROSCREEN, WHO, the Helmholtz Institute for One Health, and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Humans↗
PubMed2025

Grains, trade and war in the multimodal transmission of Rice yellow mottle virus: An historical and phylogeographical retrospective.

Rice yellow mottle virus (RYMV) is a major pathogen of rice in Africa. RYMV has a narrow host range limited to rice and a few related poaceae species. We explore the links between the spread of RYMV in East Africa and rice history since the second half of the 19th century. The phylogeography of RYMV in East Africa was reconstructed from coat protein gene sequences (ORF4) of 335 isolates sampled over two million square kilometers between 1966 and 2020. Dispersal patterns obtained from ORF2a and ORF2b, and full-length sequences converged to the same scenario. The following imprints of rice cultivation on RYMV epidemiology were unveiled. RYMV emerged in the middle of the 19th century in the Eastern Arc Mountains where slash-and-burn rice cultivation was practiced. Several spillovers from wild hosts to cultivated rice occurred. RYMV was then rapidly introduced into the nearby large rice growing Kilombero valley and Morogoro region. Harvested seeds are contaminated by debris of virus infected plants that subsist after threshing and winnowing. Long-distance dispersal of RYMV is consistent (i) with rice introduction along the caravan routes from the Indian Ocean Coast to Lake Victoria in the second half of the 19th century, (ii) seed movement from East Africa to West Africa at the end of the 19th century, from Lake Victoria to the north of Ethiopia in the second half of the 20th century and to Madagascar at the end of the 20th century, (iii) and, unexpectedly, with rice transport at the end of the First World War as a troop staple food from the Kilombero valley towards the South of Lake Malawi. Overall, RYMV dispersal was associated to a broad range of human activities, some unsuspected. Consequently, RYMV has a wide dispersal capacity. Its dispersal metrics estimated from phylogeographic reconstructions are similar to those of highly mobile zoonotic viruses.

Oryza↗
PubMed2006

Genetic analyses reveal structured HIV-1 populations in serially sampled T lymphocytes of patients receiving HAART.

HIV-1 infection and compartmentalization in diverse leukocyte targets significantly contribute to viral persistence during suppressive highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Longitudinal analyses were performed on envelope sequences of HIV-1 populations from plasma, CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes in 14 patients receiving HAART and 1 therapy-naive individual. Phylogenetic reconstructions and analysis of molecular variance revealed that HIV-1 populations in CD4+ and CD8+ T cells remained compartmentalized over time in most individuals. Analyses of viral genetic variation demonstrated that, despite compartmentalization remaining over time, viral subpopulations tended not to persist and evolve but instead broke down and became reconstituted by new founder viruses. Due to the profound impact of HAART on viral evolution, it was difficult to discern whether these dynamics were ongoing during treatment or predominantly established prior to the commencement of therapy. The genetic structure and viral founder effects observed in serially sampled T lymphocyte populations supported a scenario of metapopulation dynamics in the tissue(s) where different leukocytes become infected, a factor likely to contribute to the highly variable way that drug resistance evolves in different individuals during HAART.

Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active↗
PubMed2006

Evolutionary history of the closely related group 2 coronaviruses: porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus, bovine coronavirus, and human coronavirus OC43.

The close genetic and antigenic relatedness among the group 2 coronaviruses human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43), bovine coronavirus (BCoV), and porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (PHEV) suggests that these three viruses with different host specificities diverged fairly recently. In this study, we determined the complete genomic sequence of PHEV (strain PHEV-VW572), revealing the presence of a truncated group 2-specific ns2 gene in PHEV in comparison to other group 2 coronaviruses. Using a relaxed molecular clock approach, we reconstructed the evolutionary relationships between PHEV, BCoV, and HCoV-OC43 in real-time units, which indicated relatively recent common ancestors for these species-specific coronaviruses.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

Investigating the origin and spread of hepatitis C virus genotype 5a.

Epidemiological and phylogenetic studies of hepatitis C virus (HCV) have identified six major HCV genotypes and have attempted to characterize their origin and spread worldwide. Putative regions of endemic infection have been identified for all HCV genotypes except HCV genotype 5a. Although HCV genotype 5a was previously thought to be largely restricted to the northern part of South Africa, this study reports an unexpected cluster of the genotype in West Flanders Province in Belgium. To investigate the molecular epidemiology of this cluster and of HCV genotype 5a in general, a rigorous phylogenetic analysis of Belgian and South African HCV genotype 5a samples was performed. Remarkably, the Belgian and South African strains form two distinct clusters of similar diversity. We used a Bayesian coalescent method to estimate the rate of virus spread through time for HCV genotype 5a in both regions. Our results indicate that HCV genotype 5a strains have been spreading independently in Belgium and South Africa for more than 100 years, with a rate of spread characteristic of an epidemic genotype. These findings have major implications for tracing the origin of HCV genotype 5a. Here, we speculate about the possible origins of these clusters.

Belgium↗
PubMed2005

Molecular testing of multiple HIV-1 transmissions in a criminal case.

OBJECTIVE: To test the a priori hypothesis of HIV-1 transmission from one suspect to six recipients in a criminal case. METHODS: Partial pol and/or env sequences were obtained for at least two samples of the suspect and the victims. Appropriate local controls were sampled based on epidemiological and subtype criteria. Phylogenetic testing was performed using different reconstruction methods. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analyses consistently inferred a monophyletic cluster for the suspect and victim samples in both genome regions. This was highly supported by parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping techniques. Moreover, the controls most closely related to the suspect-victim cluster had a similar geographical origin to the suspect. CONCLUSIONS: Taking into account the limitations on the conclusions that can be drawn from molecular investigations we could infer that our molecular data is consistent with a scenario of multiple HIV transmission between suspect and victims.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2005

Role of viral evolutionary rate in HIV-1 disease progression in a linked cohort.

BACKGROUND: The actual relationship between viral variability and HIV disease progression and/or non-progression can only be extrapolated through epidemiologically-linked HIV-infected cohorts. The rarity of such cohorts accents their existence as invaluable human models for a clear understanding of molecular factors that may contribute to the various rates of HIV disease. We present here a cohort of three patients with the source termed donor A--a non-progressor and two recipients called B and C. Both recipients gradually progressed to HIV disease and patient C has died of AIDS recently. By conducting 15 near full-length genome (8.7 kb) analysis from longitudinally derived patient PBMC samples enabled us to investigate the extent of molecular factors, which govern HIV disease progression. RESULTS: Four time points were successfully amplified for patient A, 4 for patient B and 7 from patient C. Using phylogenetic analysis our data confirms the epidemiological-linkage and transmission of HIV-1 from a non-progressor to two recipients. Following transmission the two recipients gradually progressed to AIDS and one died of AIDS. Viral divergence, selective pressures, recombination, and evolutionary rates of HIV-1 in each member of the cohort were investigated over time. Genetic recombination and selective pressure was evident in the entire cohort. However, there was a striking correlation between evolutionary rate and disease progression. CONCLUSION: Non-progressing individuals have the potential to transmit pathogenic variants, which in other host can lead to faster HIV disease progression. This was evident from our study and the accelerated disease progression in the recipient members of he cohort correlated with faster evolutionary rate of HIV-1, which is a unique aspect of this study.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2005

Circulation of genetically distinct contemporary human coronavirus OC43 strains.

In this study, we report the complete genome sequence of two contemporary human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) strains detected in 2003 and 2004, respectively. Comparative genetic analyses of the circulating strains and the prototype HCoV-OC43 strain (ATCC VR759) were performed. Remarkably, a lower than expected similarity is found between the complete genomes and more in particular between the spike genes of the BE03 and BE04 strains. This finding suggests the existence of two genetically distinct HCoV-OC43 strains, circulating in Belgium in 2003 and 2004. Spike gene sequencing of three additional 2003 and two additional 2004 HCoV-OC43 strains, and subsequent phylogenetic analysis confirm this assumption. Compared to the ATCC prototype HCoV-OC43 strain, an important amino acid substitution is present in the potential cleavage site sequence of the spike protein of all contemporary strains, restoring the N-RRXRR-C motif, associated with increased spike protein cleavability in bovine coronaviruses. We here describe specific characteristics associated with circulating HCoV-OC43 strains, and we provide substantial evidence for the genetic variability of HCoV-OC43.

Coronavirus Infections↗
PubMed2005

Evolutionary dynamics of human retroviruses investigated through full-genome scanning.

To test hypotheses on the differences in retroviral genetic diversity, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) group M and the primate T-cell lymphotropic virus (PTLV) using a full-genome analysis. Evolutionary rates and nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution rate ratios were estimated across the genome using a maximum likelihood sliding window approach, and molecular clock properties were investigated. We confirm a remarkable difference in genetic stability and selective pressure at the interhost level. While there is evidence for adaptive evolution in HIV-1, the evolution of PTLV is almost exclusively characterized by negative selection or nearly neutral processes. For both retroviruses, evolutionary rate estimates across the genome reflect the differential selective constraints. However, based on the relationship between evolutionary rate and selective pressure and based on the comparison of synonymous substitution rates, the differences in rate between HIV-1 and PTLV cannot be explained by selective forces only. Several evolutionary and statistical assumptions, examined using a Bayesian coalescent method, were shown to have little influence on our inference.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2005

A genotypic resistance assay for the detection of drug resistance in the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 envelope gene.

Since it is not clear yet whether enfuvirtide resistance is restricted to gp41, it was decided to develop a genotypic assay for the detection of drug resistance in the entire human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) env gene. Given the increasing prevalence of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in Europe, it is important to evaluate the performance of the assay on a panel of genetically divergent samples. A panel of 1 laboratory and 10 clinical isolates from 10 patients was tested, all enfuvirtide naive and chosen according to the subtype as determined in the pol region (A, B, C, H, CRF01-AE, CRF02-AG, CRF05-DF, CRF11-cpx and U), while their env sequences belonged to subtypes A, B, C, H, A/G recombinant, B/H recombinant, CRF01-AE, CRF02-AG, CRF05-DF and CRF11-cpx. The detection limits of the gp120 and the gp41 PCRs ranged between 500 and 5000 RNA copies/ml plasma. The highest sensitivity was obtained for the laboratory strain, whereas the detection limit for all patient samples, except for the subtype C sample, was 1000 RNA copies/ml. The numerous insertions and deletions in the gp120 gene, that were often present as quasi-species, necessitated the sequencing of cloned PCR products. The gp41 gene displayed less diversity and less insertions/deletions. Especially, the heptad repeat 1 was highly conserved and none of the enfuvirtide naive samples contained any of the already known enfuvirtide resistance mutations at amino acid positions 36-45. This study demonstrates that the assay is able to genotype genetically diverse HIV-1 strains with a good sensitivity.

Drug Resistance, Viral↗
PubMed2005

Full-genome analysis of a highly divergent simian T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 strain in Macaca arctoides.

Full-genome sequencing and analysis of the highly divergent simian T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (STLV-1) strain MarB43 in Macaca arctoides indicated that its open reading frame structure is compatible with proper functioning of its Gag, Pol, Env, Tax and Rex proteins. Detailed analysis of the coding potential, however, revealed that MarB43 is probably forced to use the human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 2/STLV-2 env-tax-rex splice-acceptor homologue and that the proximal pX auxiliary proteins p12(I), p13(II), p30(II) and p27(I) seem to have lost their function. Full-genome (gag-pol-env-tax), long terminal repeat and env phylogenetic analyses conclusively identified STLV-1 in M. arctoides as the currently most divergent STLV-1 strain. The long branching pattern of the monophyletic STLV-1 Macaca subspecies clades suggests that macaques might be the ancestral reservoir for primate T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 in Asia. Full-genome molecular-clock analysis supports an archaic introduction of STLV-1 on the Asian continent, at least 269 000-156 000 years ago.

Animals↗