Biomedical subjects

R A Olshen

Publications and source records attributed to R A Olshen.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed1992

Probability estimation for biomedical classification problems.

Suppose that we wish to know the probability that an object belongs to a class. For example, we may wish to estimate the probability that a patient has a particular disease, given a set of symptoms, or we may wish to know the probability that a novel peptide binds to a receptor, given the peptide's amino-acid composition. The conventional approach is to first use a classification algorithm to find partitions in feature space and to assign each partition to a class, and then to estimate the conditional probabilities as the proportion of patients or peptides that are correctly and incorrectly classified in each partition. Unfortunately, this estimation method often gives probability estimates that are in error by 20% or more, and thus can cause incorrect decisions. We have implemented and compared alternative methods. In Monte Carlo simulations the alternative methods are substantially more accurate than is the current method.

Epidemiology↗

PubMed1991

Predicting chemically induced duodenal ulcer and adrenal necrosis with classification trees.

Binary tree-structured statistical classification algorithms and properties of 56 model alkyl nucleophiles were brought to bear on two problems of experimental pharmacology and toxicology. Each rat of a learning sample of 745 was administered one compound and autopsied to determine the presence of duodenal ulcer or adrenal hemorrhagic necrosis. The cited statistical classification schemes were then applied to these outcomes and 67 features of the compounds to ascertain those characteristics that are associated with biologic activity. For predicting duodenal ulceration, dipole moment, melting point, and solubility in octanol are particularly important, while for predicting adrenal necrosis, important features include the number of sulfhydryl groups and double bonds. These methods may constitute inexpensive but powerful ways to screen untested compounds for possible organ-specific toxicity. Mechanisms for the etiology and pathogenesis of the duodenal and adrenal lesions are suggested, as are additional avenues for drug design.

Adrenal Gland Diseases↗

PubMed1991

PAH extraction and estimation of plasma flow in diseased human kidneys.

We have analyzed the efficiency with which p-amino-hippuric acid (PAH) is extracted (EPAH) by patients with healthy kidneys (n = 13) or kidneys damaged by chronic cyclosporin nephropathy (n = 21) or primary glomerulopathy (n = 12); respective values (mean +/- SE) for EPAH were 0.87 +/- 0.03, 0.77 +/- 0.03, and 0.69 +/- 0.04. Judged by a 131I-hippuran-to-PAH clearance ratio of 0.75 +/- 0.05, extraction ratio of hippuran was less efficient than EPAH in three glomerulopathic patients. A direct relationship was defined between EPAH and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) (r = 0.54) or calculated efferent oncotic pressure (IIE; r = 0.41, P less than 0.01). Curve fitting by means of quadratic spline functions revealed GFR and IIE to be additive in predicting EPAH (R2 = 0.45). Linear model prediction methods and a sample reuse technique failed to predict EPAH reliably from GFR and preglomerular oncotic pressure (IIA); however, 95% prediction intervals exceed 0.30 EPAH units in width. We conclude that oncotic pressure (presumably reflecting albumin concentration) along with GFR is predictive of EPAH depression in humans with chronic renal disease. However, even sophisticated curve-fitting techniques are too imprecise for accurate prediction of EPAH in a given individual. We submit that renal venous sampling to determine EPAH continues to be necessary for the accurate determination of the rate of plasma flow in the injured human kidney.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1990

Predicting 1-year outcome following acute myocardial infarction: physicians versus computers.

Whether decision rules derived statistically from patient data can produce better decisions than an expert clinician or a model of the expert clinician (expert system) is controversial. We examined this issue in the context of predicting cardiac death by 1 year for patients discharged from the hospital following acute myocardial infarction. Decision rules were derived from a base sample of 781 patients. These decision rules and three experienced cardiologists then estimated probability of death by 1 year for each patient in a separate test sample (n = 400). In our evaluation of the performance of the decision rules and physicians, we detected no differences, although the decision rules and physicians tended to classify the patients somewhat differently. Further multivariate analyses on the physicians' predictions showed that two of the physicians paid attention to somewhat different variables than the third physician. Lack of agreement among expert cardiologists would complicate modeling of a consensual decision-making process within the framework of an expert system.

Aged↗

PubMed1990

Prognostic significance of actual dose intensity in diffuse large-cell lymphoma: results of a tree-structured survival analysis.

While diffuse large-cell lymphoma (DLCL) is considered to be highly curable with current therapy, treatment failures are observed even with intensive combination chemotherapy regimens. In order to study the prognostic significance of actual dose intensity of chemotherapy in DLCL, we retrospectively analyzed 115 previously untreated patients treated as Stanford between 1975 and 1986 with cyclophosphamide, Adriamycin (doxorubicin; Adria Laboratories, Columbus, OH), vincristine, and prednisone (CHOP), methotrexate, bleomycin, Adriamycin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, and dexamethasone ([M]BACOD), or methotrexate, Adriamycin, cyclosphosphamide, vincristine, prednisone, and bleomycin (MACOP-B). The actual relative dose intensity (RDI), the amount of drug actually administered to each patient during the first 12 weeks of therapy, was calculated as standardized to CHOP and analyzed in addition to clinical factors prognostic for survival by univariate analysis. Multivariate recursive partitioning (tree-structured) survival analysis identified the actual RDI of Adriamycin greater than 75% as the single most important predictor of survival. A model incorporating the actual RDI of Adriamycin and performance status, in combination with serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and extranodal disease, defined three overall prognostic groups of patients with respective 3-year survival rates of 89%, 63%, and 18%. The three prognostic groups remained distinct, even when restricted to complete responders. This model was also predictive of survival when dose intensity was analyzed relative to the optimum dose defined for each of the three regimens and when applied to a subgroup of patients aged 50 years or younger. We conclude that actual RDI is an important prognostic factor for survival in DLCL and that analysis of RDI early in the course of treatment may allow modification of the treatment plan.

Aged↗

PubMed1979

Effect of probenecid on cerebrospinal fluid methotrexate kinetics.

The effect of probenecid (PBC) on methotrexate (MTX) kinetics in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum was studied in 4 patients on high-dose MTX with leucovorin rescue to determine whether addition of PBC could prolong effective CSF MTX levels. Each patient received 2 courses of MTX, 1 with and 1 without PBC. PBC caused a 2.8 to 4.2-fold increase in CSF MTX concentrations but failed to prolong the CSF half-life (1 1/2). PBC prolonged the initial MTX elimination t 1/2 in the blood from 2.7 to 4.1 hr, but had little effect on subsequent t 1/2s. No effect of MTX on PBC clearance was detected. Our data suggest that in man PBC in concentrations that were high enough to inhibit the renal clearance of MTX failed to alter the clearance of MTX from the CSF when both drugs were administered systemically.

Adult↗