The rise and fall in primary liver cancer mortality in Italy.
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Female↗
Biomedical subjects
R Capocaccia
Publications and source records attributed to R Capocaccia.
Cancer prevalence in European registry areas.
BACKGROUND: Information on cancer prevalence is of major importance for health planning and resource allocation. However, systematic information on cancer prevalence is largely unavailable. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-eight population-based cancer registries from 17 European countries, participating in EUROPREVAL, provided data on almost 3 million cancer patients diagnosed from 1970 to 1992. Standardised data collection and validation procedures were used and the whole data set was analysed using proven methodology. The prevalence of stomach, colon, rectum, lung, breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and prostate cancer, as well as of melanoma of skin, Hodgkin's disease, leukaemia and all malignant neoplasms combined, were estimated for the end of 1992. RESULTS: There were large differences between countries in the prevalence of all cancers combined; estimates ranged from 1170 per 100000 in the Polish cancer registration areas to 3050 per 100000 in southern Sweden. For most cancers, the Swedish, Swiss, German and Italian areas had high prevalence, and the Polish, Estonian, Slovakian and Slovenian areas had low prevalence. Of the total prevalent cases, 61% were women and 57% were 65 years of age or older. Cases diagnosed within 2 years of the reference date formed 22% of all prevalent cases. Breast cancer accounted for 34% of all prevalent cancers in females and colorectal cancer for 15% in males. Prevalence tended to be high where cancer incidence was high, but the prevalence was highest in countries where survival was also high. Prevalence was low where general mortality was high (correlation between general mortality and the prevalence of all cancers = -0.64) and high where gross domestic product was high (correlation = +0.79). Thus, the richer areas of Europe had higher prevalence, suggesting that prevalence will increase with economic development. CONCLUSIONS: EUROPREVAL is the largest project on prevalence conducted to date. It has provided complete and accurate estimates of cancer prevalence in Europe, constituting essential information for cancer management. The expected increases in prevalence with economic development will require more resources; allocation to primary prevention should therefore be prioritised.
Adolescent↗
Measuring cancer prevalence in Europe: the EUROPREVAL project.
Cancer prevalence is the proportion of individuals in a population who at some stage during their lifetime have been diagnosed with cancer, irrespective of the date of diagnosis. Cancer prevalence statistics have generally been provided by a limited number of well established cancer registries that have been in existence for several decades. The advent of systematic follow-up of life status of incident cases and the availability of new statistical methodologies, now makes it possible for registries established during the 1970s or 1980s to provide prevalence data. The main problems encountered in the estimation of prevalence are the inclusion of: (i) cases lost to follow-up; (ii) cases known only from their death certificate; (iii) cases diagnosed before the start of registration; and (iv) the treatment of multiple tumours and migrations. The main aim of this paper was to review these problems and discuss, through the experience gained with EUROPREVAL, how they can be overcome. A method is presented for the calculation of prevalence of all cancers combined in the populations covered by the 45 cancer registries participating in EUROPREVAL. Prevalence of cancer is estimated to be 2% on average, with the highest values (3%) in Sweden and the lowest in Eastern Europe, with a minimum of approximately 1% in Poland.
Adolescent↗
Cancer survival differences between European populations: the UK uneasiness.
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Colorectal Neoplasms↗
Childhood cancer survival in Europe, 1978-1992: the EUROCARE study.
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Adolescent↗
The EUROCARE study of survival of cancer patients in Europe: aims, current status, strengths and weaknesses.
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Child↗
Survival for retinoblastoma in Europe.
The survival of 954 cases of retinoblastoma, diagnosed between 1978 and 1989 in 28 populations belonging to 17 European countries and covered by cancer registration, is analysed in this study. Data were collected in the framework of the EUROCARE study following a common protocol and data-check procedures and were analysed centrally by the Kaplan-Meier method and by the Cox regression model. Overall 5-year survival in the European pool was 93% (95% confidence interval (CI): 91--95%), for both sexes. Five-, 10- and 18-year survival for a subset of 235 patients diagnosed in 1978--1981 was 91, 89 and 86%, respectively. Children diagnosed in their first year of age had a slightly higher survival (94%) than those diagnosed subsequently (92%). Survival rates lower than the European average were found in the Eastern European countries, Italy, England and Wales, Scotland, Spain and Denmark. Higher survival was found in the other Nordic countries and in Central European countries. However, none of these differences was statistically significant. There was statistically significant effect related to the period of diagnosis, with a 50% reduction in the relative risk (RR) for children diagnosed in 1986--1989 compared with those diagnosed in 1978-1981.
Adolescent↗
Incidence and prevalence of all cancerous diseases in Italy: trends and implications.
The burden of cancer in ageing populations is causing great concern, particularly in Italy with Europe's fastest growing elderly population. Studying all cancers combined in one group, although of limited medical value, is of great interest from the viewpoints of public health, epidemiology and the economy. Using mortality data and an estimate of cancer patients' survival we have estimated and projected incidence and prevalence in Italy of all cancers combined in one group. Five major phenomena are highlighted in the paper: (1) the decrease in the age-adjusted cancer mortality rates among females and the stable mortality rates among males since 1990; (2) the changing pattern of cancer incidence since 1990, it has started to decrease for females and is stabilising for males; (3) the decrease in cancer incidence among males and females born after 1940; (4) the increase in the proportion of cancer patients that are cured with calendar years of diagnosis; (5) the increase in the total and the healthy life expectancy (i.e. cancer-free) among the Italian population since 1970. The declining and flat trends in age-adjusted cancer incidence and mortality rates since 1990 is the combined effect of survival improvements and cancer risk reduction for younger cohort groups, after 1940. These favourable trends contribute to the increase in healthy life expectation, thus supporting the idea that we live longer and healthier.
Adolescent↗
Cancer survival increases in Europe, but international differences remain wide.
The EUROCARE project analysed cancer survival data from 45 population-based cancer registries in 17 European countries, revealing wide international differences in cancer survival. We calculated 5-year relative survival for 1836287 patients diagnosed with one of 13 cancers during the period 1978-1989. The data, from 20 cancer registries in 13 countries, were grouped into four regions: Finland, Sweden, Iceland (Northern Europe); Denmark, England and Scotland (UK and Denmark); France, The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Switzerland (Western Europe); Estonia and Poland (Eastern Europe), and broken down into four periods (1978-1980, 1981-1983, 1984-1986, 1987-1989). For each cancer, mean European and regional survival was estimated as the weighted mean of 5-year relative survival in each country. Survival increased with time for all tumours, particularly for cancers of testis (12% increase, i.e. from 79.9 to 91.9%), breast, large bowel, skin melanoma (approximately 9-10%), and lymphomas (approximately 7%). For most solid tumours, survival was highest in Northern Europe and lowest in Eastern Europe, and also low in the UK and Denmark. Regional variation was less marked for the lymphomas. Survival improved more in Western than Northern Europe, and the differences between these regions fell for bowel cancer (from 8.0% for those diagnosed in 1978-1980 to 2% for those diagnosed in 1987-1989), breast cancer (from 7.4% to 3.9%), skin melanoma (from 13.4% to 11.0%) and Hodgkin's disease (from 7.2 to 0.6%). For potentially curable malignancies such as Hodgkin's disease, large bowel, breast and testicular cancers, there were substantial increases in survival, suggesting an earlier diagnosis and more effective treatment. The persisting regional differences suggest there are corresponding differences in the availability of diagnostic and therapeutic facilities, and in the effectiveness of healthcare systems.
Adolescent↗
Estimating population-based incidence and prevalence of major coronary events.
BACKGROUND: Population-based data on coronary events are generally lacking for large areas, such as at the nation-wide level. While mortality data are currently and exhaustively collected in all developed countries and in a few developing countries, incidence and prevalence are often available only for certain subgroups of the population under study. METHODS: We propose to estimate population-based incidence and prevalence of coronary events through a mathematical method using mortality and survival data as input, and to forecast coronary event occurrence using an age, period and cohort approach. The method reconstructs incidence and prevalence of major coronary events in Italy from 1970 to 1997 and projects trends up to the year 2007 using survival data on coronary events from the Area Friuli-MONICA (MONItoring of CArdiovascular diseases) register. RESULTS: Major coronary event incidence has been decreasing since 1977 for men and since 1974, for women. Conversely, major coronary event prevalence increased up to the end of the 1980s for men and up to the early 1980s for women, and it has been declining thereafter. Major coronary event prevalence results from three main effects: increasing survival, population ageing, and incidence trend. CONCLUSIONS: Availability of national population data, collection of population-based survival data from the MONICA registers and appropriate statistical and mathematical methods help to estimate and project incidence and prevalence trends for major coronary events. This information is essential to plan and implement actions aimed at improving medical care services, and to evaluate the impact of public health interventions as well as spontaneously changing habits. Incidence, prevalence, mortality, projections, ischaemic heart disease, coronary events
Adult↗
Efficacy in standard clinical practice of colonoscopic polypectomy in reducing colorectal cancer incidence.
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is one of the leading causes of death from cancer in Western countries. Removal of adenomas is based on the assumption that it could lead to a reduction in the incidence of colorectal cancer, as demonstrated by the National Polyp Study in the USA. A critical issue is whether the benefit observed in clinical trials can also be observed in standard clinical practice. To address the issue, a multicentre Italian collaborative study was organised. METHODS: The study cohort comprised 1693 subjects of both sexes, aged 40-69 years, enrolled between 1980 and 1987 following a total colon examination (TCE) (that is, total colonoscopy or colonoscopy and double contrast barium enema), with removal of at least one adenoma larger than 5 mm in diameter. Exclusion criteria were genetic syndromes, previous adenomas or colorectal cancer, previous colonic resection, inflammatory bowel disease, or sessile adenomas more than 3 cm in diameter. Follow up ended in December 1996 by TCE or telephone interview, and review of the medical records, clinical files, or death certificates. Incidence ratios for colorectal cancer were compared with expected age and sex specific incidences in the Italian general population. RESULTS: Follow up data were obtained for 97.3% of cases for a total of 14 211 person/years. Mean follow up was 10.5 years. Six colorectal cancer cases (four in males, two in females) at various stages were ascertained (one at 29 months, two at five years, one at seven years, one at eight years, and one at 10 years from the index examination). The number of cancers expected in the reference population was 17.7 for an incidence ratio of 0.34 (confidence interval 0.23-0.63; p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopic polypectomy substantially reduced the incidence of colorectal cancer in the cohort compared with that expected in the general population. These results are of particular relevance considering that those with adenomas are at increased risk of colorectal cancer and that this retrospective study was performed on data obtained in standard clinical practice. This observation strengthens the concept of effective population screening in view of the fact that adenomatous polyps are the most frequent neoplastic outcome of screening and their removal is associated with a decrease in the incidence of colorectal cancer.
Adenoma↗
Toward a comparison of survival in American and European cancer patients.
BACKGROUND: Only recently have extensive population-based cancer survival data become available in Europe, providing an opportunity to compare survival in Europe and the United States. METHODS: The authors considered 12 cancers: lung, breast, stomach, colon, rectum, melanoma, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, ovary, prostate, Hodgkin disease, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The authors analyzed 738,076 European and 282,398 U.S. patients, whose disease was diagnosed in 1985-1989, obtained from 41 EUROCARE cancer registries in 17 countries and 9 U.S. SEER registries. Relative survival was estimated to correct for competing causes of mortality. RESULTS: Europeans had significantly lower survival rates than U.S. patients for most cancers. Differences in 5-year relative survival rates were higher for prostate (56% vs. 81%), skin melanoma (76% vs. 86%), colon (47% vs. 60%), rectum (43% vs. 57%), breast (73% vs. 82%), and corpus uteri (73% vs. 83%). Survival declined with increasing age at diagnosis for most cancers in both the U.S. and Europe but was more marked in Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Survival for most major cancers was worse in Europe than the U.S. especially for older patients. Differences in data collection, analysis, and quality apparently had only marginal influences on survival rate differences. Further research is required to clarify the reasons for the survival rate differences.
Adolescent↗
Relative survival in elderly European cancer patients: evidence for health care inequalities. The EUROCARE Working Group.
This paper examines the survival of elderly European cancer patients, on the basis of the EUROCARE II results. Using Hakulinen and Abeywickrama's method, the relative survival rates at 1 and 5 years from diagnosis were computed by sex and quinquennial age group for the elderly (65-99 years old). Age-standardised rates for the whole elderly group were also calculated. The analysis covered: all malignancies combined, stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, melanoma, bladder, kidney and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas for both sexes; prostate and larynx for men; and breast, ovary, uterine cervix and corpus for women. Data relating to 701521 cancer patients came from 44 population-based cancer registries in 16 European countries. The relative risks of death (RRs) of older patients (65-99) with respect to middle-aged adults (55-64) were computed by sex and country, for all malignancies only. The most prominent finding was the decrease in survival rates with increasing age for almost all cancer sites. The age-curves of survival rates at 1 year from diagnosis usually had a steeper slope than those at 5 years, particularly in women. This suggests that disease stage at presentation plays an important role in determining survival, particularly in the elderly. Thus, all factors which influence timing diagnosis in the elderly and cause a delay in tumour detection, such as psycho-social factors, access to care, co-morbidities and other clinical features affecting performance status, are very important predictors of prognosis. Very large geographic variations in relative survival rates were found among European countries. The ordering of countries was similar for almost all cancer sites. Western and Central Europe generally had the best survival, followed by Northern countries and by Southern ones (the latter with survival around the European average: 39% in men, 47% in women). The UK had survival rates unexpectedly lower than rates of nearest nations, often below the European average. Eastern countries usually had the lowest rates. In the very elderly patients (over 85 years), an apparent rise in the survival rates was noted, particularly at 5 years from diagnosis and in men. This 'too good' survival is unlikely to be due to real better prognosis, but rather to a selection bias. Countries with this unusual rise are also those registering a high proportion of DCO cases (those cases retrieved by death certificate only) (around 10%) or DCO unavailable. Another 'natural' bias has also to be taken into account: in elderly patients with a very bad prognosis, who are often suffering from other serious co-morbid conditions, cancer diagnoses could be under-notified and not reach at all the data sources commonly monitored by cancer registries.
Age Factors↗
Cancer prevalence estimates based on tumour registry data in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program.
BACKGROUND: The Connecticut Tumor Registry (CTR) has collected cancer data for a sufficiently long period of time to capture essentially all prevalent cases of cancer, and to provide unbiased estimates of cancer prevalence. However, prevalence proportions estimated from Connecticut data may not be representative of the total US, particularly for racial/ethnic subgroups. The purpose of this study is to apply the modelling approach developed by Capocaccia and De Angelis to cancer data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute to obtain more representative US site-specific cancer prevalence proportion estimates for white and black patients. METHODS: Incidence and relative survival were modelled and used to obtain estimated completeness indices of SEER prevalence proportions for all cancer sites combined, stomach, cervix uteri, skin melanomas, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, lung and bronchus, colon/rectum, female breast, and prostate. For validation purposes, modelled completeness indices were computed for Connecticut and compared with empirical completeness indices (the ratio of Connecticut based prevalence proportion estimates using 1973-1993 data to 1940-1993 data). The SEER-based modelled completeness indices were used to adjust SEER prevalence proportion estimates for white and black patients. RESULTS: Model validation showed that the adjusted SEER cancer prevalence proportions provided reasonably unbiased prevalence proportion estimates in general, although more complex modelling of the completeness indices is necessary for female cancers of the colon, melanoma, breast, cervix, and all cancers combined. The SEER-based cancer prevalence proportions are incomplete for most cancer sites, more so for women, whites, and at older ages. For all cancers combined, prevalence proportions tended to be higher for whites than blacks. For the site-specific cancers this was true for stomach, prostate, cervix uteri, and lung and bronchus (men only). For colon/rectal cancers the prevalence proportions were higher for blacks through ages 59 (men) and 64 (women), and then for the remaining ages they were higher for whites. Prevalence proportions were lowest for stomach cancer and highest for prostate and female breast cancers. Men experienced higher prevalence proportions than women for skin melanomas, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, lung and bronchus, and colon/rectal cancers. CONCLUSION: The modelling approach applied to SEER data generally provided reasonable estimates of cancer prevalence. These estimates are useful because they are more representative of cancer prevalence than previously obtained and reported in the US.
Adult↗
Understanding variations in survival for colorectal cancer in Europe: a EUROCARE high resolution study.
BACKGROUND: Marked differences in population based survival across Europe were found for colorectal cancers diagnosed in 1985-1989. AIMS: To understand the reasons for these differences in survival in a new analysis of colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1988 and 1991. SUBJECTS: A total of 2720 patients with adenocarcinoma of the large bowel from 11 European cancer registries (CRs). METHODS: We obtained information on stage at diagnosis, diagnostic determinants, and surgical treatment (not routinely collected by CRs) and analysed the data in relation to three year observed survival, calculating relative risks (RRs) of death and adjusting for age, sex, site, stage, and determinants of stage. RESULTS: Three year observed survival rates ranged from 25% (Cracow) to 59% (Modena), and were low in the Thames area (UK) (38%). Survival rates between registries for "resected" patients varied less than those for all patients. When age, sex, and site were considered, RRs ranged from 0.7 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.6-0.9) (Modena) to 2.3 (95% CI 1.9-2.9) (Cracow). After further adjustment by stage, between registry RR variation was between 0.8 (95% CI 0.6-0.9) and 1.8 (95% CI 1.5-2.2). Inter-registry RR differences were slightly reduced when the determinants of stage (number of nodes examined and liver imaging) were included in the model. The reduction was marked for the UK registries. CONCLUSIONS: The wide differences across Europe in colorectal cancer survival depend to a large extent on differences in stage at diagnosis. There are wide variations in diagnostic and surgical practices. There was a twofold range in the risk of death from colorectal cancer even after adjustment for surgery and disease stage.
Adenocarcinoma↗
Large-scale hormone replacement therapy and life expectancy: results from an international comparison among European and North American populations.
OBJECTIVES: An analysis was performed to determine the risks and benefits of a 10-year hormone replacement therapy regimen that had been applied to all women at 50 years of age in 8 countries. METHODS: Cumulative mortality with and without hormone replacement therapy over 20 years was estimated, with both current and predicted total and disease-specific secular mortality trends and the influence of a generational cohort effect taken into account. RESULTS: In countries with high ischemic heart disease frequency and predictable relative predominance of ischemic heart disease rates over breast cancer rates for the next 20 years, hormone replacement therapy could result in benefits with regard to overall mortality; this advantage decreases in younger-generation cohorts. In countries in which breast cancer mortality predominates over ischemic heart disease in early postmenopause and in which the predictable trends for both diseases reinforce this condition, a negative effect on overall mortality would be observed. In the United States, the effect of large-scale hormone replacement therapy would change over time. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term effect of hormone replacement therapy on life expectancy of postmenopausal women may vary among countries.
Age Distribution↗
Mixture models for cancer survival analysis: application to population-based data with covariates.
The interest in estimating the probability of cure has been increasing in cancer survival analysis as the curability of many cancer diseases is becoming a reality. Mixture survival models provide a way of modelling time to death when cure is possible, simultaneously estimating death hazard of fatal cases and the proportion of cured case. In this paper we propose an application of a parametric mixture model to relative survival rates of colon cancer patients from the Finnish population-based cancer registry, and including major survival determinants as explicative covariates. Disentangling survival into two different components greatly facilitates the analysis and the interpretation of the role of prognostic factors on survival patterns. For example, age plays a different role in determining, from one side, the probability of cure, and, from the other side, the life expectancy of fatal cases. The results support the hypothesis that observed survival trends are really due to a real prognostic gain for more recently diagnosed patients.
Age Factors↗