Smoking accepted on death certificates.
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Biomedical subjects
Publications and source records attributed to R Doll.
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Some 15 years ago there began to emerge a consensus among epidemiologists that diet might be responsible for 30-60% of cancers in the developed world, in the sense that it should be possible to reduce age-specific incidence rates by this amount by practicable dietary change. Within about 6 years it was also broadly agreed that the principal changes required to bring about this effect were a reduction in the consumption of fat; an increase in the consumption of fruit, green and yellow vegetables, dietary fiber, and some micronutrients; and possibly an improvement in the methods of food preservation. Very small effects, if any, were attributed to food additives and to the pollution of food by trace pesticides, which the public, who accepted much of the consensus advice, have increasingly regarded as important causes of risk. These past conclusions are reviewed in the light of increased knowledge of the etiology of cancer and the trends in its incidence. Contrary to common belief, the trends are broadly encouraging.
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Pelizaeus-Merzbacher disease (PMD) is a clinically heterogeneous, slowly progressive leukodystrophy. The recent detection of mutations in the myelin proteolipid protein (PLP) gene in several PMD patients offers the opportunity both to design DNA-based tests that would be useful in diagnosing a proportion of PMD cases and, in particular, to evaluate the diagnostic utility of single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) analysis for this disease. A combination of SSCP analysis and direct sequencing of PCR-amplified DNA was used to screen for PLP mutations in 24 patients affected with leukodystrophies of unknown etiology. Two heretofore undescribed mutations in the PLP gene were identified, Asp202His in exon 4 and Gly73Arg in exon 3. The ease and efficiency of SSCP analysis in detecting new mutations support the utilization of this technique in screening for PLP mutations in patients with unexplained leukodystrophies.
A collaborative study including centres in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand was instituted in 1970 to determine the incidence of cancer in patients treated for at least three months with azathioprine, cyclophosphamide, or chlorambucil. Follow-up of 3823 renal transplant recipients showed an almost 60-fold increase of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma together with an excess of squamous-cell skin cancer and mesenchymal tumours. A series of 1349 patients without transplants showed an excess of the same tumours, though to a less extent. These preliminary findings provide no clear evidence that immunosuppressive drugs produce the increased risk of most of the common cancers that might be expected from the simplest interpretation of impaired "immunosurveillance."
Information that can be used to assess trends in the health of the population is limited to the results of irregular surveys of nutritional status and 'I.Q.', to data obtained from the notification of infectious diseases, congenital malformations, blindness and other selected defects, and to mortality rates. The last have been recorded since 1841 and provide the most detailed and useful information, although they are often difficult to interpret because of changes in the nomenclature, classification, methods of diagnosis, and efficacy of treatment of disease states. In the last 40 years, mortality rates have shown progressive reductions at all ages which have continued past the time when improvements in the prevention and treatment of infectious disease might be expected to have produced their principal benefits. Notable differences have emerged between the sexes, the rates continuing to decline in women but remaining more or less stable for a period in middle-aged men. This difference can be attributed to sex differences in life-style, so that until recently the trends in women are likely to have been the better indicators of the effect of toxic agents in the environment. The available data are inadequate to assess possible effects such as alterations in behaviour, but are of some help in regard to teratogenicity and carcinogenicity.
During 1968-77, 707 women aged 16-50 years with newly diagnosed breast cancer and 707 matched controls were interviewed at eight teaching hospitals in London and Oxford about their use of oral contraceptives. Eighty-six of the patients with breast cancer were matched with controls with gall-bladder disease; these subjects were omitted from the main analyses, which thus related to 621 case-control pairs.The results were reassuring. A few statistically significant differences in oral contraceptive use were found between the breast cancer and control groups, but the data were subdivided in many ways, so that some "significant" differences would have been expected to occur by chance. The only subgroup in which the evidence for a positive association between pill use and breast cancer was at all convincing comprised women aged 46-50 years, but trends in those aged 41-45 were by and large in the opposite direction and results of combined analysis gave no cause for concern.Information on clinical stage was available for 487 patients with breast cancer treated before the end of 1975. Those who had never used oral contraceptives had appreciably more advanced tumours at presentation than those who had been using the pill during the year before detection of the lump, while past users of the pill occupied an intermediate position. This difference in staging was reflected in the pattern of survival. Oral contraceptives may have had a beneficial effect on tumour growth and spread, though diagnostic bias could not be definitely excluded.
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In a prospective study of 43,117 people, prescriptions issued by general practitioners over two years were linked with records of hospital admissions and deaths. For 57 people injured or killed while driving cars, motorcycles, or bicycles the medicines that had been dispensed in the three months before were compared with those dispensed for 1,425 matched controls. There was a highly significant association between use of minor tranquillisers and the risk of a serious road accident (relative risk estimate 4.9). the increased risk of accidents to drivers given tranquillisers could be due to the known psychomotor effects of these drugs or to effects of the conditions being treated. Whatever the reason, patients taking drugs such as diazepam should be warned that they are at special risk.
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Among the 17,032 women included in the Oxford-Family Planning Association contraceptive study, 65 developed biopsy proven cervical neoplasia (including dysplasia) prior to 1 September 1977. The incidence rate in diaphragm users (0.17 per 1000 woman-years of observation) was much lower than the rates in oral contraceptive users or intrauterine device users (0.95 and 0.87 respectively). This difference could not be explained in terms of confounding variables, nor was it attributable to a lower frequency of cervical smearing among diaphragm users within the clinics. Detailed information about age at first intercourse, numbers of sexual partners and the frequency of cervical smearing outside the clinics was obtained from 52 of the women with cervical neoplasia and 139 matched controls. Diaphragm users were less likely to have had coitus at an early age and had had materially fewer sexual partners than users of the other two methods of contraception. After adjusting for the effects of these variables, however, the risk of cervical neoplasia in diaphragm users was still only about one quarter that in the users of the other methods. Patterns of smearing varied little between users of the various contraceptive methods. Smoking emerged as a major "risk factor" for cervical neoplasia in this study. This probably implies that the smoking habit reflects some important aspect of sexual behaviour relevant to the production of the disease that we have been unable to measure.
In a 20-year prospective study on British doctors, smoking habits were ascertained by questionnaire and lung cancer incidence was monitored. Among cigarette smokers who started smoking at ages 16-25 and who smoked 40 or less per day, the annual lung cancer incidence in the age range 40-79 was:0.273X10(-12). (cigarettes/day+6)2. (age--22.5)4.5. The form of the dependence on dose in this relationship is subject not only to random error but also to serious systematic biases, which are discussed. However, there was certainly some statistically significant (P less than 0.01) upward curvature of the dose-response relationship in the range 0-40 cigarettes/day, which is what might be expected if more that one of the "stages" (in the multistage genesis of bronchial carcinoma) was strongly affected by smoking. If a higher than linear dose-response relationship exists between dose per bronchial cell and age-specific risk per bronchial cell, this may help explain why bronchial carcinomas chiefly arise in the upper bronchi, for dilution effects might then protect the larger areas lower in the bronchial tree.