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R G Blanks

Publications and source records attributed to R G Blanks.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Should a standard be defined for the Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of recall in the UK NHS Breast Screening Programme?

The UK NHSBSP defines standards for both cancer detection rate and recall rate for assessment but has not explicitly set a defined standard for positive predictive value (PPV) of recall. However, as PPV is defined as the percentage of women who are recalled and have a final diagnosis of cancer, a standard for PPV is an implicit consequence of the standards for cancer detection rate and recall rate. The standards are defined in terms of a lower level of acceptability known as the 'minimum standard' and a higher level of acceptability referred to as the 'target'. The target can be shown to be a PPV of more than 5.1% for prevalent screens and more than 8.4% for incident screens. This paper will explore the role of PPV as a performance measure and show how making moderate increases in PPV for programmes with the lowest PPVs could lead to major improvements in the overall efficiency of the programme.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Does the accuracy of single reading with CAD (computer-aided detection) compare with that of double reading?: A review of the literature.

AIM: To examine current evidence to determine whether the accuracy of single reading with computed-aided detection (CAD) compares with that of double reading. METHODS: We performed a literature review to identify studies where both protocols had been investigated and compared. We identified eight studies that compared single reading with CAD against double reading, of which six reported on comparisons of both sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Of the six studies identified, three showed no differences in either sensitivity or specificity. One showed single reading with CAD had a higher sensitivity at the same specificity, another that single reading with CAD had a higher specificity at the same sensitivity. However, one study, in a real-life setting, showed that single reading with CAD had a higher sensitivity but a lower specificity. CONCLUSION: As the majority of the studies were not in a real-life setting, used test sets, lacked sufficient training in the use of CAD and simulated double reading (using a protocol of recall if one suggests), current evidence is therefore limited as to the accuracy, in terms of sensitivity and specificity, of single reading with CAD in comparison with the most common practice in the UK of double reading using a protocol of consensus or arbitration.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Improving the NHS cervical screening laboratory performance indicators by making allowance for population age, risk and screening interval.

OBJECTIVE: One of the key performance measures in the monitoring of the NHS cervical screening programme is the targeting of laboratories with very high or low percentages (outside the 10th-90th percentile) of adequate smears that have moderate dyskaryosis or worse. These laboratories are assumed to include those laboratories that may have extremes of sensitivity and specificity. A clear limitation with this methodology is that laboratories do not examine smears from women with the same underlying risk, age distribution or screening interval and adjustment for these factors should considerably improve the method. METHODS: This paper describes a method that allows for these confounding variables and a new age-risk-interval adjusted moderate dyskaryosis or worse rate (ARI-adjusted mod+ rate) can be calculated. The adjusted rate is the rate of moderate or worse dyskaryotic smears that the laboratory would have detected had it been screening women with an English 'average' age-risk-interval. All laboratories can therefore be compared using this method. RESULTS: The methodology is illustrated using data from the NHSCSP South West Region. The particularly low percentage of moderate or worse smears detected by one or two laboratories can be shown to be due to a local screened population with a very low risk because of a high mean age, relatively short screening interval and census variables associated with a low risk, rather than any under-calling by the associated laboratories. CONCLUSIONS: The ARI-adjusted mod+ rate requires to be calculated for all laboratories in England if it is to be used as a primary performance indicator. Alternatively, it can be used to further examine laboratories that are deemed to be outliers using the current methodology.

Adult↗

The effect of data quality at the time of introduction of population-based screening on the estimate of programme impact using surrogate outcome measures.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to examine the availability and quality of surrogate outcome measure data to enable the evaluation of the breast screening programme. As the observed effect on mortality of a screening programme occurs many years after the introduction of screening, surrogate outcome measures offer an attractive alternative, allowing estimates of the effect to be calculated earlier. METHODS: The exercise was undertaken by the Oxford Cancer Intelligence Unit and the Cancer Screening Evaluation Unit in collaboration with cancer registries in England, Scotland and Wales. RESULTS: The conclusion of the exercise was that, in general, the available data quality was insufficient to allow a precise estimate of the overall mortality reduction from breast screening to be made using surrogate measures. CONCLUSIONS: When a screening programme is started, it is vital that forward planning is undertaken to ensure that the necessary information is ready to be collected before the start of the programme. The use of surrogate measures is dependent on high-quality data in the uninvited group of women (pre-screening or from a staggered start over areas), and improving data quality over time after the start of the programme is of very limited value for a surrogate measures approach. The collection of appropriate high-quality information before the programme starts is, therefore, critical to measuring the success of the programme. Cancer registries and staff within the screening programme need to be ready to collect the appropriate data before the introduction of a screening programme. The exercise undertaken therefore has important implications where new screening programmes are being considered.

Breast Neoplasms↗

The effect of changing from one to two views at incident (subsequent) screens in the NHS breast screening programme in England: impact on cancer detection and recall rates.

AIM: To assess the effect on cancer detection and recall rates of changing from one to two views for incident (subsequent) screens. METHODS: Controlled, comparative, observational study of programmes in NHS breast screening programme in England. SUBJECTS: women aged 50-64 years were screened by the NHSBSP between 1 April 2001 and 31 March 2003. RESULTS: The effect of changing to two-view mammography was a 20% increase in overall incident screen cancer detection rate, with the biggest effect seen for small (<15 mm) invasive cancers. This increased detection rate was achieved with an 11% drop-in recall rate. CONCLUSION: The introduction of two-view mammography for incident screens has resulted in considerable improvements in overall NHS breast screening performance.

Aged↗

Is radiologists' volume of mammography reading related to accuracy? A critical review of the literature.

The current UK quality assurance guidelines for radiologists in the NHS breast screening programme require those reporting screening mammograms to read a minimum of 5000 cases per year. We aimed to review the evidence for this and to assess whether there was justification for lowering the required level. A literature search was conducted to identify relevant studies where accuracy of reporting mammograms was related to reading volume. Three of the five studies reviewed suggested a positive association between reading volume and sensitivity, but there were few data on volumes above 5000 cases per year. The available evidence did not provide any basis for reducing the threshold volume. Further work is needed, in a UK or European setting, to study the relationship between reading volume and accuracy at higher volume levels and also the separate effects of reading volume and reading experience.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Monitoring and evaluating the performance of the UK NHS Cervical Screening Programme: monitoring performance by using cytology outcomes adjusted for population characteristics.

Current quality assurance measures used in the NHS cervical screening programme (NHSCSP) include a review of laboratories with percentages of moderate/severe and borderline/mild smear results outside the 10th-90th percentiles. The method is limited by the fact that many of these outlier smear percentages may reflect laboratories covering populations with low or high risk and/or short or long average screening intervals. This paper outlines a new approach to aid the detection of outlier laboratories, by using data collected at the primary care trust (PCT) or health authority (HA) level and making allowances for population characteristics and screening interval. The setting is the NHSCSP in England using annual data provided by HAs. Data from the screening year 2000-01 is used to illustrate the methodology, although the methods can also be applied to data at the PCT level (now being collected for 2002-03 onwards). Percentages of smear results have been analysed against a series of explanatory variables using logistic regression models. These explanatory variables include Townsend deprivation index, uptake-corrected ethnic minority composition, a measure of screening interval, area type and region. An expected percentage of borderline/mild and moderate/severe smears is estimated from the models and an observed : predicted ratio (OPRmod/sev and OPRbord/mild) calculated. Low values are suggestive of relative undercalling and high values overcalling, after allowance for population characteristics. Analysis of data for 2000-01 showed that the OPRmod/sev for the 99 HAs varied from 0.68 to 1.44. Laboratories with low percentages of moderate/severe smears, but associated with PCTs or HAs with OPRmod/sev values closer to unity may not need to be investigated as their observed rates are consistent with predicted rates based on population characteristics. The method could also be directly applied to laboratories if further information on the population covered by each laboratory were routinely collected.

Female↗

Should breast screening programmes limit their detection of ductal carcinoma in situ?

OBJECTIVE: Previous research has shown that the detection of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) aids the detection of small invasive cancers at mammographic screening. A correlation may therefore exist between a screening unit's DCIS detection rate and their small invasive cancer detection rate. We have therefore investigated the effect of DCIS detection rate on the detection of small (<15 mm) invasive cancers in the 95 units of the U.K. NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP). MATERIALS AND METHODS: DCIS detection rates were examined against large (> or =15 mm) and small (<15 mm) invasive cancer detection rates in women aged 50-64 years at prevalent and incident screens over a 3-year period. RESULTS: After adjusting for background incidence, screening units with the highest DCIS detection of > or =1.3/1000 detected over 20% more small invasive cancers than units with DCIS detection rates within the NHSBSP guidelines of 0.5-1/1000 (P<0.001). Sixty percent of units had DCIS detection rates above the guidelines. There was no correlation between DCIS detection and > or =15 mm invasive cancer detection. The results suggest that over the range of DCIS rates studied, that for every two extra DCIS cancers detected, an additional small invasive cancer (<15 mm) is detected that may otherwise not have been. The results therefore provide supporting evidence that the detection of DCIS aids the detection of small invasive cancers. CONCLUSION: Units with DCIS detection above the NHSBSP guidelines have significantly better small invasive cancer detection rates. The existence of an upper limit for DCIS detection within the NHSBSP may be preventing the detection of small invasive cancers, because units are not recalling some small clusters of calcification in order to keep DCIS detection rates down. The upper limit may therefore be inappropriate.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Does individual programme size affect screening performance? Results from the United Kingdom NHS breast screening programme.

OBJECTIVE: The size (number of women screened) of the 95 individual NHS breast screening programmes (NHSBSPs) varies by a factor of 10. This study investigates the impact of size on the performance of individual programmes. METHOD: Data were collated from the 95 United Kingdom screening programmes on the standard statistical returns for the past 5 years (1 April 1995-31 March 2000). Additional information was obtained from questionnaires. The number of women screened between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000 determined the size of a programme. The bottom 25% were defined as small, the middle 50% as medium, and the top 25% as large. On average large programmes screened about four times as many women as small programmes and medium programmes about twice as many. Performance was evaluated using cancer detection rates, referral rates for assessment, and positive predictive value (PPV) of assessment using PPV referral diagrams. RESULTS: The performance of smaller programmes was shown to be marginally poorer than medium and large sized programmes in that they detected fewer cancers and had a lower PPV. The smallest 25% of programmes had an invasive cancer detection rate 13% less than the medium and large programmes. However, if these programmes had an equivalent detection rate to the medium/large programmes the national detection rate would only increase by about 2%. This is because the 75% of programmes described as medium and large screen about 90% of all women. It is therefore important to place the clinical importance of these findings in context when considering any envisaged possible solutions. CONCLUSIONS: Although the performance of smaller programmes was shown to be poorer than that of the larger programmes, it is not clear from this study exactly why this is so. A likely contributory factor based on experience of evaluating the NHSBSP is that performance problems in larger programmes have been easier to detect by quality assurance staff. The size of the small programmes and the few screen detected cancers (and inherent statistical instability in detection rates) mean that problems are difficult to identify. As a consequence small programmes which are genuinely performing marginally below specific standards are likely to receive less attention than larger programmes, and even under close scrutiny the causes are less likely to be found.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Routine breast screening for women aged 65-69: results from evaluation of the demonstration sites.

Routine programme data and specially designed surveys from 3 demonstration sites were analysed to determine the implications of extending the NHS Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP), to include routine invitations for women up to 69 years. All women aged 65-69 and registered with GPs in these areas received routine invitations for breast screening along with those aged 50-64. Overall uptake was 71% in women aged 65-69 compared with 78% in younger women, but was > or = 90% in both groups who had previously attended within 5 years. Recall rates were lower for older women, but with a higher positive predictive value for cancer. The percentages of invasive cancer in different prognostic categories were similar in the 2 age groups. Older women took no longer to screen than younger women. The costs per woman invited or per woman screened were also similar to those for women aged 50-64, whilst the cost per cancer detected was some 34% lower in older women. Breast screening is as cost effective for women aged 65-69 as for those aged 50-64, with a higher cancer detection rate balancing shorter life expectancy. The proposed extension to the national programme will have considerable workforce implications for the NHSBSP and require additional resources.

Aged↗

Reasons for variation in coverage in the NHS cervical screening programme.

In order to investigate reasons for variation in coverage of cervical screening, data from standard Department of Health returns were obtained for all Health Authorities for 1998/1999. Approximately 80% of the variation between health authorities is explained by differences in age distribution and area classification. Considerable differences between Health Authority and Office of National Statistics (ONS) population figures in City and Urban (London) areas for the age group 25-29 years and for City (London) for age group 30-34 years, suggest an effect of list inflation in these groups. Coverage as a performance indicator may be more accurately represented using the age range 35-64 years. Using this narrower age range, the percentage of health authorities meeting the 80% 5-year coverage target increases from 87% to 90%.

Adult↗

Monitoring and evaluating the UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme: evaluating the variation in radiological performance between individual programmes using PPV-referral diagrams.

A high quality breast cancer screening programme can be defined as one offering both a high cancer detection rate and a low referral rate of women for further investigation. Such a programme will have as few women as possible undergoing further investigations who do not have a final diagnosis of breast cancer--that is, a high positive predictive value of referral for further investigation. This paper introduces a graphical technique to illustrate individual programme performance. The graph plots positive predictive value of referral against referral rate, with the cancer detection rate expressed as "isobars" on the graph. Confidence limits can be expressed as "boxes" on the diagram. The graph not only illustrates programme performance but also enables suggestions to be made to improve performance. The definition of high quality screening is seen to have a subjective element as well as an objective element, as radiologists have to balance screening sensitivity with specificity. The technique is illustrated using data from the individual screening programmes in the UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme for the screening year 1 April 1998 to 31 March 1999. The methodology could also be applied to other national screening programmes.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Effect of NHS breast screening programme on mortality from breast cancer in England and Wales, 1990-8: comparison of observed with predicted mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the NHS breast screening programme on mortality from breast cancer in women aged 55-69 years over the period 1990-8. DESIGN: Age cohort model with data for 1971-89 used to predict mortality for 1990-8 with assumption of no major effect from screening or improvements in treatment until after 1989. Effect of screening and other factors on mortality estimated by comparing three year moving averages of observed mortality with those predicted (by five year age groups from 50-54 to 75-79), the effect of screening being restricted to certain age groups. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: Women aged 40 to 79 years. RESULTS: Compared with predicted mortality in the absence of screening or other effects the total reduction in mortality from breast cancer in 1998 in women aged 55-69 was estimated as 21.3%. Direct effect of screening was estimated as 6.4% (range of estimates from 5.4-11.8%). Effect of all other factors (improved treatment with tamoxifen and chemotherapy, and earlier presentation outside the screening programme) was estimated as 14.9% (range 12.2-14.9%). CONCLUSIONS: By 1998 both screening and other factors, including improvements in treatment, had resulted in substantial reductions in mortality from breast cancer. Many deaths in the 1990s will be of women diagnosed in the 1980s and early 1990s, before invitation to screening. Further major effects from screening and treatment are expected, which together with cohort effects should result in further substantial reductions in mortality from breast cancer, particularly for women aged 55-69, over the next 10 years.

Adult↗

Results from the UK NHS breast screening programme 1994-1999.

OBJECTIVE: To present results from the NHS breast screening programme (NHSBSP) from 1994 through to 1999 and to examine the extent to which interim targets are being achieved. METHODS: Data were collated from all screening programmes in the UK on standard statistical returns. Performance of the screening programme was evaluated using calculated targets based on comparison with the Swedish two counties (STC) randomised controlled trial. RESULTS: In the early years of screening (1988-1993), the NHS programme was detecting more DCIS but considerably less invasive cancers than expected, based on the STC trial. Since the screening year 1993/94 (1 April to 31 March) the standardised detection ratio (SDR) measure of the detection of invasive cancers has increased by 36% from 0.83 to 1.13. The SDR has been greater than 1 since 1996197 suggesting that the NHSBSP has only been screening as efficiently as the STC trial since this date. Uptake for screening has been relatively stable over time at approximately 75%. CONCLUSIONS: The NHSBSP has made considerable advances in performance since its inception in 1988 and screening uptake and age standardised invasive cancer detection rates are (by 1999) well in excess of targets. The early years of screening were characterised by good uptake but a low sensitivity for the detection of invasive cancers. It is anticipated that the screening programme will have an increasing impact on breast cancer mortality, particularly in the 55-69 year age group over the coming years.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Incident screening cancers detected with a second mammographic view: pathological and radiological features.

Previous studies and epidemiological data from the UK National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) have indicated significantly increased sensitivity for cancer detection with two-view rather than one-view mammographic screening. The radiological and pathological features of these extra cancers have not been previously reported in detail. We have studied all screen-detected cancers found as incident cases in the South West London Breast Screening Service between 1994-1997 on the second round of screening. To assess the effect of two-view versus one-view mammography on cancer detection, these cases were mixed with controls in a 1:2 ratio in nine test sets and each set read independently by three film readers. They initially read the oblique view, then the craniocaudal views, and recorded abnormalities on the films and likelihood of recall. Radiological and histological data were recorded for each case. Using two views, 8.9% (P < 0.05) more invasive cancers were detected. The sensitivity increase was highest for invasive cancers less than 10 mm (11%) and cancers of low grade (11.9%). These sensitivity increases may underestimate the increase in 'real life' because of over-recalling of normal mammograms, particularly with one view, under study conditions. The most significant radiological feature of invasive cancers was an irregular mass, which, seen on one view had a positive predictive value of 82.2% and 89.9% with two views. The craniocaudal view was helpful, firstly, because some cancers were not visible on the oblique view only. Secondly, benign appearing round masses and asymmetric densities seen with the oblique view only were resolved as more suspicious irregular masses with both views, leading to recall. In conclusion, there are cancers that cannot be adequately visualized on the oblique view alone. These are most commonly the small invasive cancers, which are of the greatest prognostic significance in breast cancer screening.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Observer variability in cancer detection during routine repeat (incident) mammographic screening in a study of two versus one view mammography.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the reasons for observer variability of cancer detection using one and two view mammography at incident (subsequent) screening and determine whether false negative results (non-recall of a cancer) are due to failure to detect the associated features(s) of the cancer on the mammogram, or misinterpretation of the observed feature(s) as not indicative of malignancy. SETTING: A random selection of cancers (invasive and in situ) seen as incident cases during the second screening round (January 1994-January 1997) in the South West London Breast Screening Service were used. This service uses two view mammography and double reading with arbitration by a third or further readers for all screens. METHODS: Mammograms of cases were mixed with those of controls in a 1:2 ratio in two test sets. Eleven experienced film readers, each reading both test sets, took part in the study. Initially the oblique view only was read, then, additionally, the craniocaudal view. Previous films were available to the readers. Data on abnormalities noted on the films and probability of recall were recorded and analysed. RESULTS: 387 valid readings of 36 cancers (30 invasive and six ductal carcinoma in situ) were made by 11 readers. The overall sensitivity increased from 79% with one view to 85% with two views. For invasive cancers < 10 mm the sensitivity was 71% with one view, but increased to 85% with two views. Recall of individual cancers by the readers varied substantially. With one view 15 (50%) of the 30 invasive cancers were recalled by all 11 readers, increasing to 18 (60%) with two views. Of the invasive cancers not recalled by all 11 readers, there was considerable disagreement, particularly for the smaller cancers. With one view 69% of invasive cancers < 10 mm were correctly marked on the proforma compared with 87% with two views. Invasive cancers > 10 mm were almost all marked on the proforma with one or two views. For invasive cancers, the misinterpreted feature that did not lead to recall was most commonly an asymmetry (42%), whereas for in situ cancers it was calcifications (67%). The finding of an irregular mass was the least misinterpreted feature. CONCLUSION: The study showed that of those invasive cancers detected at routine repeat screening by a programme using two view mammography and double reading with arbitration, at least 50% could be described as "difficult" (for example, "minimal" signs) to recall using the single reading of one view, even under "favourable" study conditions with two normal subjects per case. The finding that at least 87% of invasive cancers < 10 mm are detected (marked on the proforma) with two views, but only 69% with the one view, suggests that for single reading of mammograms with one view the detection of small invasive cancers is a major problem. This problem is helped by the second view. For invasive cancers > or = 10 mm, interpretation (benign or malignant) rather than detection (under these study conditions) was the major cause of recall failure. The most common signs to be misinterpreted were calcifications and asymmetries; once visualised an irregular mass was least likely to be misinterpreted. This study provides evidence that detection and interpretation of most invasive cancers is improved by increasing the number of views, and by increasing the number of readers.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Efficiency of cancer detection during routine repeat (incident) mammographic screening: two versus one view mammography.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the influence of one view versus two view mammography on cancer detection and recall for further investigation of women attending incident (subsequent) screening. SETTING: All cancers (invasive and in situ) detected as incident cases during the second screening round (January 1994 to January 1997) at the South West London Breast Screening Service were used. This service uses two view mammography and double reading, with arbitration by a third or further readers for all screens. METHODS: Mammograms of cases were mixed with those of controls in a 1:2 ratio in nine test sets; each set was read independently by three film readers. Fourteen readers, each reading from one to four test sets, took part in the study. Initially, the oblique view only was read, then the craniocaudal view was read in addition. Previous films were available to the readers. Data on abnormalities noted on the films and probability of recall were recorded and analysed. RESULTS: 10 of the 14 readers obtained increased sensitivity using two views (p = 0.04), for two readers there was no difference, and for two readers sensitivity decreased. The mean sensitivity increase was 6.1% (p = 0.01). The overall increase in sensitivity from all readings of invasive cancers was 8.9%, with no increase seen for in situ cancers. 11 of the 14 readers obtained an increase in specificity (p = 0.006), two readers showed no increase, and the specificity for one reader was decreased. The mean increase in specificity using two views was 5.7% (p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: This study showed an increase of 8.9% in sensitivity for the detection of invasive cancers when two views are used at incident screening, with a ratio of two control mammograms for every case. This is equivalent to a sample from population screening with a cancer detection rate of 333 per 1000. Such a study is considered to be likely to underestimate the benefit of two views in screening under non-test conditions where the cancer detection rate is of the order of five per 1000. The use of two view mammography for the detection of in situ cancers showed no increased benefit. A randomised controlled trial is needed to obtain a reliable estimate of the increase in cancer detection rate for incident screening in normal populations.

Female↗