Biomedical subjects

R L Keeney

Publications and source records attributed to R L Keeney.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed1991

A prescriptive risk framework for individual health and safety decisions.

A conceptual framework is developed for the prescriptive evaluation of health and safety risks to an individual. This framework allows one to compare chronic vs. acute health risks, accidents vs. illness, and physical vs. psychological impacts. To do this, value judgments are necessary to quantify one's health state in terms of both physical and psychological well-being. Probabilities are necessary to describe implications of activities such as skiing or smoking and conditions such as cancer or third-degree burns in terms of these health states. Suggestions are made to operationalize and use the framework to evaluate and compare very different individual health and safety risks. Essentially, all existing measures of individual risk can be derived as special cases of the proposed framework.

Decision Support Techniques↗

PubMed1990

Mortality risks induced by economic expenditures.

Existing evidence shows that lower incomes are associated with higher mortality risks. This paper examines the implications for fatalities when the relationship is interpreted as an induced relationship, meaning that lower incomes will on average lead to higher mortality risks. A model is developed for estimating the number of fatalities possibly induced by economic expenditures. This model accounts for different allocations of the expenditures on family units with varying income levels. Illustrative calculations provide insights about the possible significance of fatalities induced by economic expenditures. These results suggest that some expensive regulations and programs intended to save lives may actually lead to increased fatalities. Important caveats to reduce the likelihood of misinterpreting or misusing the results are included.

Costs and Cost Analysis↗

PubMed1987

A multiattribute utility analysis of alternative sites for the disposal of nuclear waste.

Five potential sites nominated for the Nation's first geologic repository for disposing of nuclear waste are evaluated using multiattribute utility analysis. The analysis was designed to aid the Department of Energy in its selection of 3 sites for characterization, a detailed data-gathering process that will involve the construction of exploratory shafts for underground testing and that may cost as much as $1 billion per site. The analysis produced insights into the relative advantages and disadvantages of the nominated sites and clarified current uncertainties regarding repository performance.

Decision Making↗

PubMed1987

An analysis of the portfolio of sites to characterize for selecting a nuclear repository.

The U.S. Department of Energy has selected three sites, from five nominated, to characterize for a nuclear repository to permanently dispose of nuclear waste. This decision was made without the benefit of an analysis of this "portfolio" problem. This paper analyzes different portfolios of three sites for simultaneous characterization and strategies for sequential characterization. Characterization of each site, which involves significant subsurface excavation, is now estimated to cost $1 billion. Mainly because of the high characterization costs, sequential characterization strategies are identified which are the equivalent of $1.7-2.0 billion less expensive than the selected DOE simultaneous characterization of the three sites. If three sites are simultaneously characterized, one portfolio is estimated to be the equivalent of $100-400 million better than the selected DOE portfolio. Because of these potential savings and several other complicating factors that may influence the relative desirability of characterization strategies, a thorough analysis of characterization strategies that addresses the likelihood of finding disqualifying conditions during site characterization, uncertainties, and dependencies in forecast site repository costs, preclosure and postclosure health and safety impacts, potential delays of both sequential and simultaneous characterization strategies, and the environmental, socioeconomic, and health and safety impacts of characterization activities is recommended.

Radioactive Waste↗

PubMed1986

Improving risk communication.

This paper explores reasons for difficulties in communicating risks among analysts, the laypublic, media, and regulators. Formulating risk communication problems as decisions involving objectives and alternatives helps to identify strategies for overcoming these difficulties. Several strategies are suggested to achieve risk communication objectives like improving public knowledge about risks and risk management, encouraging risk reduction behavior, understanding public values and concerns, and increasing trust and credibility.

Communication↗

PubMed1970

Assessment of multiattribute preferences.

Operational assumptions are made concerning the preferences of a decision maker. Functional forms of multiattribute utility functions that satisfy these assumptions are stated. These forms provide operational methods for assessing preferences over multiattribute consequences and have a wide range of practical application.

Blood Banks↗