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Biomedical subjects

R M May

Publications and source records attributed to R M May.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2002

Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease.

Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against a range of infectious diseases of humans and animals. However, its potential to control major epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in livestock is contentious. Using an individual farm-based model, we consider either national prophylactic vaccination campaigns in advance of an outbreak, or combinations of reactive vaccination and culling strategies during an epidemic. Consistent with standard epidemiological theory, mass prophylactic vaccination could reduce greatly the potential for a major epidemic, while the targeting of high-risk farms increases efficiency. Given sufficient resources and preparation, a combination of reactive vaccination and culling might control ongoing epidemics. We also explore a reactive strategy, 'predictive' vaccination, which targets key spatial transmission loci and can reduce markedly the long tail that characterizes many FMD epidemics. These analyses have broader implications for the control of human and livestock infectious diseases in heterogeneous spatial landscapes.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Infection dynamics on scale-free networks.

We discuss properties of infection processes on scale-free networks, relating them to the node-connectivity distribution that characterizes the network. Considering the epidemiologically important case of a disease that confers permanent immunity upon recovery, we derive analytic expressions for the final size of an epidemic in an infinite closed population and for the dependence of infection probability on an individual's degree of connectivity within the population. As in an earlier study [R. Pastor-Satorras and A. Vesipignani, Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 3200 (2001); Phys. Rev. E. 63, 006117 (2001)] for an infection that did not confer immunity upon recovery, the epidemic process--in contrast with many traditional epidemiological models--does not exhibit threshold behavior, and we demonstrate that this is a consequence of the extreme heterogeneity in the connectivity distribution of a scale-free network. Finally, we discuss effects that arise from finite population sizes, showing that networks of finite size do exhibit threshold effects: infections cannot spread for arbitrarily low transmission probabilities.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2001

Infectious disease dynamics: What characterizes a successful invader?

Against the background of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and other potentially emerging (or re-emerging) infectious diseases, this review will focus on the properties which enable an infectious agent to establish and maintain itself within a specified host population. We shall emphasize that for a pathogen to cross a species barrier is one thing, but for it successfully to maintain itself in the new population is must have a 'basic reproductive number', R(0), which satisfies R(0) > 1. We shall further discuss how behavioural factors interweave with the basic biology of the production of transmission stages by the pathogen, all subject to possible secular changes, to determine the magnitude of R(0). Although primarily focusing on HIV and AIDS, we shall review wider aspects of these questions.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Ecology. Species-area relations in tropical forests.

A power law called the species-area relationship describes the finding that the number of species is proportional to the size of the area in which they are found, raised to an exponent (usually, a number between 0.2 and 0.3). In their Perspective, May and Stumpf discuss new results from a survey of five tropical forest census areas containing a total of a million trees. They explain how this large data set can be used to fine-tune the existing power law so that it provides a better prediction of species diversity in small census samples.

Ecosystem↗
PubMed2000

The role of antigen-independent persistence of memory cytotoxic T lymphocytes.

We use mathematical models to analyze the role of a memory cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) response in viral infections. The model predicts that antigen-independent persistence of an elevated number of precursor CTL (CTLp) does not protect the host from clinical symptoms upon re-infection. Instead, we find that antigen-independent long-term persistence of CTLp is required to clear virus infections. This mechanism also applies to infection in hosts that have never experienced the pathogen before. Requirement of antigen for the long-term maintenance of CTLp results in failure to clear the infection, even in hosts characterized by a high CTL responsiveness. We compare the CTL model to a B cell model. In keeping with experimentally established findings, B cells are efficient in protecting against re-infection, but are unlikely to clear viral infections unless the virus is cytopathic. We conclude that the role of 'memory CTLp' is different from the role of memory B cells in viral infections: antigen-independent long-term persistence of CTLp is a pre-requisite to ensure clearance of infection.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Extinction and the loss of evolutionary history.

Extinction episodes, such as the anthropogenic one currently under way, result in a pruned tree of life. But what fraction of the underlying evolutionary history survives when k of n species in a taxon are lost? This is relevant both to how species loss has translated into a loss of evolutionary history and to assigning conservation priorities. Here it is shown that approximately 80 percent of the underlying tree of life can survive even when approximately 95 percent of species are lost, and that algorithms that maximize the amount of evolutionary history preserved are not much better than choosing the survivors at random. Given the political, economic, and social realities constraining conservation biology, these findings may be helpful.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Virus dynamics and drug therapy.

The recent development of potent antiviral drugs not only has raised hopes for effective treatment of infections with HIV or the hepatitis B virus, but also has led to important quantitative insights into viral dynamics in vivo. Interpretation of the experimental data depends upon mathematical models that describe the nonlinear interaction between virus and host cell populations. Here we discuss the emerging understanding of virus population dynamics, the role of the immune system in limiting virus abundance, the dynamics of viral drug resistance, and the question of whether virus infection can be eliminated from individual patients by drug treatment.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Anti-viral drug treatment: dynamics of resistance in free virus and infected cell populations.

Anti-viral drug treatment of infections with the human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1) usually leads to a rapid decline in the abundance of plasma virus. The effect of single drug therapy, however, is often only short-lived as the virus readily develops drug-resistant mutants. In this paper we provide analytic approximations for the rate of emergence of resistant virus. We study the decline of wildtype virus and the rise of resistant mutant virus in different compartments of the virus population such as free plasma virus, cells infected with actively replicating virus, long-lived infected cells and cells carrying defective provirus. The model results are compared with data on the rise of drug-resistant virus in three HIV-1 infected patients treated with neverapine (NVP). We find that the half-life of latently infected cells is between 10 and 20 days, whereas the half-life of cells with defective provirus is about 80 days. We also provide a crude estimate for the basic reproductive ratio of HIV-1 during NVP therapy.

Antiviral Agents↗
PubMed1997

Antigenic diversity thresholds and hazard functions.

In this paper, we answer some points made in a recent paper by N.I. Stilianakis and coworkers on the antigenic diversity threshold model for acquired immune deficiency syndrome pathogenesis. An extended version of the model is then used to compute hazard functions for the human immunodeficiency virus incubation period that are in agreement with empirically observed hazard functions.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1996

Cytotoxic T lymphocytes and viral turnover in HIV type 1 infection.

To understand the role of the immune system in limiting HIV type 1 replication, it is critical to know to what extent the rapid turnover of productively infected cells is caused by viral cytopathicity or by immune-mediated lysis. We show that uncultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells of many patients contain cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) that lyse target cells-at plausible peripheral blood mononuclear cell-to-target ratios-with half-lives of less than 1 day. In 23 patients with CD4 counts ranging from 10 to 900 per microliter, the average rate of CTL-mediated lysis corresponds to a target cell half-life of 0.7 day. We develop mathematical models to calculate the turnover rate of infected cells subjected to immune-mediated lysis and viral cytopathicity and to estimate the fraction of cells that are killed by CTL as opposed to virus. The models provide new interpretations of drug treatment dynamics and explain why the observed rate of virus decline is roughly constant for different patients. We conclude that in HIV type 1 infection, CTL-mediated lysis can reduce virus load by limiting virus production, with small effects on the half-life of infected cells.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1996

Metapopulations and equilibrium stability: the effects of spatial structure.

Recently, there has been a great deal of interest in the dynamics of metapopulations, where a number of local populations are coupled via dispersal. The importance of movement for the persistence of an ensemble of locally unstable patches has been established in many studies. In this paper, we present analytical and simulation results concerning the effects of spatial structure on the equilibrium stability of individual populations. We conclude that for general single-species and two-species competition models, the introduction of the spatial dimension in a biologically sensible way has no effect on the overall stability properties. In host-parasitoid models, however, strong host or parasitoid over-dispersal may be destabilizing.

Animals↗