Biomedical subjects

Régis Pouillot

Publications and source records attributed to Régis Pouillot.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

The hepatitis C virus epidemic in Cameroon: genetic evidence for rapid transmission between 1920 and 1960.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Cameroon is characterized by widespread seropositivity and great virus genetic diversity (3 genotypes and over 10 subtypes). A total of 244 HCV NS5B sequences of 382-405 bp long (95 type 1, 58 type 2, and 91 type 4) were phylogenetically analyzed to estimate the history of the HCV epidemic in Cameroon. The newly developed Bayesian coalescent approach was used to infer the history of each HCV type. The estimated dates of the most recent common ancestors (MRCA) for genotypes 1 (1500; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1300-1650) and 4 (1500; 95% CI: 1350-1700) were in the same range, while the date for genotype 2 MRCA (1600; 95% CI: 1400-1750) was slightly more recent. The mean genetic distance between HCV genotype 1 sequences was greater than that of HCV type 4 sequences, itself greater than that of HCV type 2 sequences. The initial infected populations of all three genotypes did not grow until recently, when they grew exponentially. The growth rate has now begun to slow, with a less steep exponential growth curve. The period of exponential growth of all the three genotypes was between 1920 and 1960. These results (i) confirm that HCV genotypes 1 and 4 have produced long-term endemics, (ii) suggest that genotype 2 was introduced into Cameroon more recently, and (iii) indicate that the exponential spread of the three genotypes between 1920 and 1960 coincided with the mass campaign against trypanosomiasis and mass vaccinations in Cameroon.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2006

An acute foodborne outbreak due to Plesiomonas shigelloides in Yaounde, Cameroon.

We investigated an acute foodborne outbreak in Yaounde, Cameroon, following a private party. Plesiomonas shigelloides, which has rarely been reported as the causative agent of foodborne outbreaks, was strongly suspected. The unusual short incubation period suggested the presence of a preformed toxin within the incriminated food.

Cameroon↗

PubMed2005

A cost-effective algorithm for the diagnosis of Hepatitis C virus infection and prediction of HCV viremia in Cameroon.

Conventional tests for antibody to Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HCV RNA require considerable time before results are available, remain very expensive and are not adapted to many sub-Saharan African countries where HCV is endemic. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of an algorithm consisting of two HCV rapid tests to diagnose and predict HCV viremia in patients in Cameroon. Three hundred and twenty nine plasma samples were screened by two HCV rapid tests (ImmunoComb II HCV, PBS Orgenics and Hexagon HCV, Human). Previous evaluation of these samples for HCV antibodies (anti-HCV) by conventional third generation ELISA, considered as a reference test, indicated that 168 were anti-HCV negative and 161 positive. Among the 161 anti-HCV positive plasma, 114 (71%) were HCV RNA-positive by RT-PCR assay. The ImmunoComb II HCV test provided the more sensitive detection of anti-HCV (sensitivity: 99.4% with a 95% CI = 96-100%). Surprisingly, the second HCV rapid test, Hexagon HCV, showed a high capacity to identify non-viremic subjects amongst anti-HCV positive cases (93.6% [95% CI: 82-99%]). These results suggest an algorithm using ImmunoComb II HCV as a first test to screen anti-HCV positive subjects, and Hexagon HCV as a second test to discriminate between viremic and non-viremic HCV seropositive subjects.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2005

Hepatitis C virus infection in cameroon: A cohort-effect.

A hepatitis C virus (HCV) serological study conducted in 2003 on 1,434 individuals in Yaounde and other HCV seroepidemiological studies on 2,066 sera sampled between 1993 and 1997 in four geographically distinct rural areas (Ntem, Mekas, Yokadouma, and Nditam) in Cameroon, are described. Two patterns of HCV seroprevalence were observed. The first pattern, represented by Nditam and Yokadouma populations, showed low HCV seroprevalence rates (2.9% and 3.3%, respectively) increasing moderately with age (9.0% and 16.7% after age 50). The second pattern showed high seroprevalence rates (6.9% for Yaounde, 14.4% and 16.7% for Ntem and Mekas, respectively). These rates increased dramatically with age (32.8%-49.5% after age 50). The age-specific anti-HCV prevalence curve of the 1993 Mekas survey paralleled those of the 1997 Ntem and 2003 Yaounde surveys. Using the year of birth as the x-axis, the three curves closely matched each other. This clearly indicates a cohort effect for which the seroprevalence trends are clearly related with the year of birth, rather than the age. The highest prevalence was observed among people born around 1940.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Stochastically modeling Listeria monocytogenes growth in farm tank milk.

This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Ebola virus antibody prevalence in dogs and human risk.

During the 2001-2002 outbreak in Gabon, we observed that several dogs were highly exposed to Ebola virus by eating infected dead animals. To examine whether these animals became infected with Ebola virus, we sampled 439 dogs and screened them by Ebola virus-specific immunoglobulin (Ig) G assay, antigen detection, and viral polymerase chain reaction amplification. Seven (8.9%) of 79 samples from the 2 main towns, 15 (15.2%) of 99 samples from Mekambo, and 40 (25.2%) of 159 samples from villages in the Ebola virus-epidemic area had detectable Ebola virus-IgG, compared to only 2 (2%) of 102 samples from France. Among dogs from villages with both infected animal carcasses and human cases, seroprevalence was 31.8%. A significant positive direct association existed between seroprevalence and the distances to the Ebola virus-epidemic area. This study suggests that dogs can be infected by Ebola virus and that the putative infection is asymptomatic.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

A quantitative risk assessment of waterborne cryptosporidiosis in France using second-order Monte Carlo simulation.

A pragmatic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the risks of waterborne Cryptosporidium parvum infection and cryptosporidiosis in immunocompetent and immunodeficient French populations is proposed. The model takes into account French specificities such as the French technique for oocyst enumeration performance and tap water consumption. The proportion of infective oocysts is based on literature review and expert knowledge. The probability of infection for a given number of ingested viable oocysts is modeled using the exponential dose-response model applied on published data from experimental infections in immunocompetent human volunteers challenged with the IOWA strain. Second-order Monte Carlo simulations are used to characterize the uncertainty and variability of the risk estimates. Daily risk of infection and illness for the immunocompetent and the immunodeficient populations are estimated according to the number of oocysts observed in a single storage reservoir water sample. As an example, the mean daily risk of infection in the immunocompetent population is estimated to be 1.08 x 10(-4) (95% confidence interval: [0.20 x 10(-4); 6.83 x 10(-4)]) when five oocysts are observed in a 100 L storage reservoir water sample. Annual risks of infection and disease are estimated from a set of oocyst enumeration results from distributed water samples, assuming a negative binomial distribution of day-to-day contamination variation. The model and various assumptions used in the model are fully explained and discussed. While caveats of this model are well recognized, this pragmatic QRA could represent a useful tool for the French Food Safety Agency (AFSSA) to define recommendations in case of water resource contamination by C. parvum whose infectivity is comparable to the IOWA strain.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Estimation of uncertainty and variability in bacterial growth using Bayesian inference. Application to Listeria monocytogenes.

The usefulness of risk assessment is limited by its ability or inability to model and evaluate risk uncertainty and variability separately. A key factor of variability and uncertainty in microbial risk assessment could be growth variability between strains and growth model parameter uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian procedure for growth parameter estimation which makes it possible to separate these two components by means of hyperparameters. This model incorporates in a single step the logistic equation with delay as a primary growth model and the cardinal temperature equation as a secondary growth model. The estimation of Listeria monocytogenes growth parameters in milk using literature data is proposed as a detailed application. While this model should be applied on genuine data, it is highlighted that the proposed approach may be convenient for estimating the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters separately, using a complete predictive microbiology model.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

How to substantiate eradication of bovine brucellosis when aspecific serological reactions occur in the course of brucellosis testing.

Collaborative work was financed by the EU to develop and assess new diagnostic tools that can differentiate between bovine brucellosis and bovine infections due to Yersinia enterocolitica O:9 either in conjunction with, or as an alternative to, the classical serological, bacteriological or allergic skin tests. Sixteen heifers were experimentally infected with Brucella abortus biovar 1 (five heifers), Brucella suis biovar 2 (two heifers), Y. enterocolitica O:9 (six heifers) and Y. enterocolitica O:3 (three heifers). Four heifers, naturally infected with Y. enterocolitica O:9 that presented aspecific brucellosis serological reactions were also included in the experiment. A self-limited infection was induced in cattle by B. suis biovar 2. All the brucellosis serological tests used, i.e. the slow agglutination test (SAW), the Rose Bengal test (RB), the complement fixation test (CFT), indirect and competitive ELISA's, lacked specificity when used to analyze sera from Y. enterocolitica O:9 infected animals. A Yersinia outer membrane proteins (YOPs)-ELISA was also used and although the test is able to detect a Yersinia group infection, it provided no evidence of whether or not there is a possible brucellosis infection when dual infections are present. The brucellergen IFN-gamma test showed a lack of specificity also. The only test that was proven to be specific is the brucellergen skin test. All brucellosis serological tests, except the indirect ELISA, were limited in their ability to detect B. abortus persistently infected animals. Based on these experimental studies, a strategy was implemented as part of the year 2001 Belgian Brucellosis Eradication Program to substantiate the eradication of bovine brucellosis. Epidemiological inquiries have identified risk factors associated with aspecific serological reactions, possible transmission and infection of cattle by B. suis biovar 2 from infected wild boars; and both legal and administrative measures taken by the veterinary services. No cases of bovine brucellosis have been confirmed in Belgium since March 2000.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

"TAGS", a program for the evaluation of test accuracy in the absence of a gold standard.

When a perfect reference test (i.e. "gold standard") is not available, it is possible to obtain estimates of test sensitivity and specificity using "latent-class" methods. However, there are few widely available software programs that allow implementation of these procedures. We describe the development of a program (implemented in R and S-Plus software) for this purpose that yields maximum-likelihood estimates of sensitivity, specificity and prevalence. We also have implemented an HTML form, which submits data to a web-based interface to R. The programs can incorporate data obtained from several populations, results of multiple tests, and can account for data obtained from a reference population in which the true status (infected or non-infected) of each individual is known exactly. Two estimation methods are used: a Newton-Raphson procedure and an expectation-maximisation (EM) procedure. The estimation methods assume test independence conditional on the infection status of the individuals and constant test accuracy in each population. A goodness-of-fit statistic and the residuals of pairwise correlation coefficients are calculated to check the validity of these assumptions. Two examples are used to illustrate application and limitations of the programs. The programs are available at www.afssa.fr/interne/tags.htm (Europe) or www.epi.ucdavis.edu/diagnostictests/ (USA).

Animal Diseases↗

PubMed2002

West Nile virus outbreak in horses, southern France, 2000: results of a serosurvey.

During late summer and autumn 2000, a West Nile fever outbreak in southern France resulted in 76 equine clinical cases; 21 horses died. We report the results of a large serosurvey of all equines within a 10-km radius of laboratory-confirmed cases. Blood samples were obtained from 5,107 equines, distributed in groups of 1 to 91 animals. West Nile virus immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibodies were found in 8.5% of animals (n=432). Forty-two percent of the IgG-positive animals were also IgM positive. Horses living in small groups were more affected than those in large groups. The results suggest that West Nile virus is not endemic in the affected area, the Camargue; rather, sporadic outbreaks are separated by long silent periods.

Age Factors↗

PubMedDate not supplied

A cost/benefit study of paratuberculosis certification in French cattle herds.

Paratuberculosis has received increasing attention in France because of the important losses this disease may provoke. The use of certification schemes has proven its effectiveness for the protection of healthy herds against diseases transmitted mainly by trade. The economic justification of such schemes in the particular case of paratuberculosis is studied, for French cattle herds, using a cost/benefit approach. The basic economical hypotheses and estimates have been proposed and carefully examined by a working group composed of paratuberculosis experts and field specialists. By adopting the point of view of a breeder that buys animals, we first estimated the benefits resulting from the non-introduction of the disease. They were then compared with the costs resulting from the fact that the vendor reports its own certification costs on the price of the animals he sells. Two average herds (the mean French beef herd and the mean French dairy herd), and two certification levels were studied. The results show that, currently, the use of the certification is not very economically profitable in French cattle herds. This conclusion, however should be reappraised if the certification costs decrease, for example with the commercialization of diagnostic tests on mixtures.

Animals↗

PubMedDate not supplied

A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission.

In France, the considerable economic losses due to paratuberculosis introduction in cattle herds may justify the development of a herd-level certification procedure. For a cost/benefit analysis purpose, a simple deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission has been developed to evaluate the economic consequences of the purchase of a single infected heifer in a French average herd. The values of the epidemiological parameters were provided by a panel of French paratuberculosis experts. The results were in adequacy with field observations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted. The model was however difficult to validate rigorously, since few data on the intra-herd paratuberculosis true prevalence level are currently available.

Age Factors↗