Why replication probabilities depend on prior probability distributions: a rejoinder to Killeen (2005).
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Humans↗
Biomedical subjects
Ranald R Macdonald
Publications and source records attributed to Ranald R Macdonald.
Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.
Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.
Bayes Theorem↗
Tayside-Fife clinical trial of cognitive-behavioural therapy for medication-resistant psychotic symptoms. Results to 3-month follow-up.
BACKGROUND: Evidence for the efficacy of cognitive-behavioural therapy for schizophrenia is promising but evidence for clinical effectiveness is limited. AIMS: To test the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioural therapy delivered by clinical nurse specialists in routine practice. METHOD: Of 274 referrals, 66 were allocated randomly to 9 months of treatment as usual (TAU), cognitive-behavioural therapy plus TAU (CBT) or supportive psychotherapy plus TAU (SPT) and followed up for 3 months. RESULTS: Treatment effects were modest but the CBT condition gave significantly greater improvement in overall symptom severity than the SPT or TAU conditions combined (F (1,53)=4.14; P=0.05). Both the CBT and SPT conditions combined gave significantly greater improvement in severity of delusions than did the TAU condition (F (1,53)=4.83; P=0.03). Clinically significant improvements were achieved by 7/21 in the CBT condition (33%), 3/19 in the SPT condition (16%) and 2/17 in the TAU condition (12%). CONCLUSIONS: Cognitive-behavioural therapy delivered by clinical nurse specialists is a helpful adjunct to routine care for some people with chronic psychosis.
Adolescent↗