Biomedical subjects

Richard P Duncan

Publications and source records attributed to Richard P Duncan.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2026

Weathering the storm: Most maternal and environmental drivers of individual reproductive success do not scale up to population recruitment in a large herbivore.

Population growth depends upon individual survival and reproduction, but do drivers of individual reproductive success scale up to population recruitment? Factors affecting individuals may have little effect on population dynamics if individuals within a population experience different conditions. When seasonal resource availability is unpredictable and breeding season long, average conditions over a breeding cycle may poorly reflect the environment experienced by many individuals. We compared the drivers of individual reproductive success and population recruitment in an asynchronously breeding large herbivore, the eastern grey kangaroo (Macropus giganteus). We analysed 18 years of individual-based data using multivariate hierarchical Bayesian models to first identify the causal mechanisms relating population density, environmental conditions and maternal traits to individual success. We then assessed whether the drivers of individual reproductive success scaled up to determine population recruitment. Most maternal and environmental covariates strongly influenced individual reproductive success, with distinct effects on juvenile survival before and after pouch exit. Maternal traits had a greater influence in the pouch, whereas environmental conditions became increasingly important once young exited the pouch. Most drivers of individual reproductive success did not affect population recruitment. Recruitment increased with population density and mean body condition of adult females. Weather harshness had a weak positive effect on recruitment, which appeared independent of female age structure, previous recruitment or forage. Most drivers of individual reproductive success did not scale up to population recruitment. Birth asynchrony could buffer population recruitment against environmental variation such that variables affecting individual reproduction have little impact at the population level. Large herbivores that reproduce asynchronously may therefore be more resilient to environmental variability than synchronous breeders.

Bayesian modelling↗

PubMed2006

Modelling population persistence on islands: mammal introductions in the New Zealand archipelago.

Islands are likely to differ in their susceptibility to colonization or invasion due to variation in factors that affect population persistence, including island area, climatic severity and habitat modification. We tested the importance of these factors in explaining the persistence of 164 introductions of six mammal species to 85 islands in the New Zealand archipelago using survival analysis and model selection techniques. As predicted by the theory of stochastic population growth, extinction risk was the greatest in the period immediately following introduction, declining rapidly to low probability by ca 25 years. This suggests that initially small populations were at greatest risk of extinction and that populations which survived for 25 years were likely to persist subsequently for much longer. Islands in the New Zealand archipelago become colder and windier with increasing latitude, and the probability of mammal populations persisting on islands declined steeply with increasing latitude. Hence, our results suggest that climatic suitability was an important determinant of the outcome of these invasions. The form of the relationship between latitude and persistence probability differed among species, emphasizing that the outcome of colonization attempts is species-environment specific.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Why islands are easier to invade: human influences on bullfrog invasion in the Zhoushan archipelago and neighboring mainland China.

Islands are often considered easier to invade than mainland locations because of lower biotic resistance, but this hypothesis is difficult to test. We compared invasion success (the probability of establishing a wild reproducing population) for bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana) introduced to enclosures on 26 farms on islands in the Zhoushan archipelago and 15 farms in neighboring mainland China. Bullfrogs were more likely to invade farms located on islands with lower native frog species richness than mainland farms, consistent with the biotic resistance hypothesis. However, human frog hunting pressure also differed between islands and the mainland and, along with the number of bullfrogs raised in enclosures, was a stronger predictor of invasion success than native frog richness in multiple regression. Variation in hunting pressure was also able to account for the difference in invasion success between islands and mainlands: islands had lower hunting pressure and thus higher invasion probability. We conclude that the ease with which bullfrogs have invaded islands of the Zhoushan archipelago relative to the mainland has little to do with biotic resistance but results from variation in factors under human control.

Agriculture↗

PubMed2005

Causes of exotic bird establishment across oceanic islands.

The probability that exotic species will successfully establish viable populations varies between regions, for reasons that are currently unknown. Here, we use data for exotic bird introductions to 41 oceanic islands and archipelagos around the globe to test five hypotheses for this variation: the effects of introduction effort, competition, predation, human disturbance and habitat diversity (island biogeography). Our analyses demonstrate the primary importance of introduction effort for avian establishment success across regions, in concordance with previous analyses within regions. However, they also reveal a strong negative interaction across regions between establishment success and predation; exotic birds are more likely to fail on islands with species-rich mammalian predator assemblages.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Big brains, enhanced cognition, and response of birds to novel environments.

The widely held hypothesis that enlarged brains have evolved as an adaptation to cope with novel or altered environmental conditions lacks firm empirical support. Here, we test this hypothesis for a major animal group (birds) by examining whether large-brained species show higher survival than small-brained species when introduced to nonnative locations. Using a global database documenting the outcome of >600 introduction events, we confirm that avian species with larger brains, relative to their body mass, tend to be more successful at establishing themselves in novel environments. Moreover, we provide evidence that larger brains help birds respond to novel conditions by enhancing their innovation propensity rather than indirectly through noncognitive mechanisms. These findings provide strong evidence for the hypothesis that enlarged brains function, and hence may have evolved, to deal with changes in the environment.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Global patterns of introduction effort and establishment success in birds.

Theory suggests that introduction effort (propagule size or number) should be a key determinant of establishment success for exotic species. Unfortunately, however, propagule pressure is not recorded for most introductions. Studies must therefore either use proxies whose efficacy must be largely assumed, or ignore effort altogether. The results of such studies will be flawed if effort is not distributed at random with respect to other characteristics that are predicted to influence success. We use global data for more than 600 introduction events for birds to show that introduction effort is both the strongest correlate of introduction success, and correlated with a large number of variables previously thought to influence success. Apart from effort, only habitat generalism relates to establishment success in birds.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed2004

Avian extinction and mammalian introductions on oceanic islands.

The arrival of humans on oceanic islands has precipitated a wave of extinctions among the islands' native birds. Nevertheless, the magnitude of this extinction event varies markedly between avifaunas. We show that the probability that a bird species has been extirpated from each of 220 oceanic islands is positively correlated with the number of exotic predatory mammal species established on those islands after European colonization and that the effect of these predators is greater on island endemic species. In contrast, the proportions of currently threatened species are independent of the numbers of exotic mammalian predator species, suggesting that the principal threat to island birds has changed through time as species susceptible to exotic predators have been driven extinct.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Measuring mast seeding behavior: relationships among population variation, individual variation and synchrony.

Mast seeding, or masting, is the variable production of flowers, seeds, or fruit across years more or less synchronously by individuals within a population. A critical issue is the extent to which temporal variation in seed production over a collection of individuals can be viewed as arising from a combination of individual variation and synchrony among individuals. Studies of masting typically quantify such variation in terms of the coefficient of variation (CV). In this paper we examine mathematically how the population CV relates to the mean individual CV and synchrony, concluding that the relationship is a complex one which cannot isolate an overall measure of synchrony, and involves additional factors, principally the number of plants sampled and the mean productivity per plant. Our development suggests some simple approximate relationships of population CV to individual variability, synchrony and the number of individuals. These were found to fit quite well when applied to data from 59 studies which included seed production at the individual level.

Chronobiology Phenomena↗

PubMed2003

Seasonal and temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration for two co-occurring broad-leaved tree species with contrasting leaf phenology.

We measured the seasonal and temperature responses of leaf photosynthesis and respiration of two co-occurring native New Zealand tree species with contrasting leaf phenology: winter-deciduous fuchsia (Fuchsia excorticata J. R. Forst & G. Forst) and annual evergreen wineberry (Aristotelia serrata J. R. Forst & G. Forst). There was no difference in the amount of nitrogen per unit leaf area (Narea, range 40-160 mmol m-2, P = 0.18) or specific leaf area (S, range 8-27 m2 kg-1, P = 0.87) in summer leaves of wineberry or fuchsia. The amount of nitrogen per unit leaf area and S varied significantly with height of leaves in the canopy for both species (r2 range 0.61-0.87). Parameters describing the maximum rates of rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax) and electron transport (Jmax) were related significantly to Narea, and were 60% higher on average in spring and summer leaves than in autumn and winter leaves for both species. The seasonal effect remained significant (P < 0.001) when Narea was included in a regression model, indicating that seasonal changes were not only due to changes in Narea. Values for Vcmax and Jmax were 30% lower in wineberry leaves than in fuchsia leaves on average, although the difference ranged from 15% in summer leaves to 39% in autumn leaves. Activation energies describing the temperature dependence of Vcmax and Jmax in wineberry were 111 and 114% of corresponding values for fuchsia (Ea (Vcmax) = 39.1 kJ mol-1, Ea (Jmax) = 32.9 kJ mol-1). Respiration at night was the same (P = 0.34) at 10 degrees C for both species (R10 = 0.7 micromol m-2 s-1), although activation energies (E0) were higher in wineberry than in fuchsia (47.4 and 32.9 kJ mol-1 K-1, respectively). These results show that rates of photosynthesis are higher in winter-deciduous fuchsia than in annual evergreen wineberry.

Cell Respiration↗

PubMed2002

Ecology: Darwin's naturalization hypothesis challenged.

Naturalized plants can have a significant ecological and economic impact, yet they comprise only a fraction ot the plant species introduced by humans. Darwin proposed that introduced plant species will be less likely to establish a self-sustaining wild population in places with congeneric native species because the introduced plants have to compete with their close relatives, or are more likely to be attacked by native herbivores or pathogens, a theory known as Darwin's naturalization hypothesis. Here we analyze a complete list of seed-plant species that have been introduced to New Zealand and find that those with congeneric relatives are significantly more, not less, likely to naturalize--perhaps because they share with their native relatives traits that pre-adapt them to their new environment.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

PubMed2002

Prehistoric bird extinctions and human hunting.

Holocene fossils document the extinction of hundreds of bird species on Pacific islands during prehistoric human occupation. Human hunting is implicated in these extinctions, but the impact of hunting is difficult to disentangle from the effects of other changes induced by humans, including habitat destruction and the introduction of other mammalian predators. Here, we use data from bones collected at a natural sand dune site and associated archaeological middens in New Zealand to show that, having controlled for differences in body mass and family membership (and hence for variation in life-history traits related to population growth rate), birds that were more intensively hunted by prehistoric humans had a higher probability of extinction. This result cannot be attributed to preservation biases and provides clear evidence that selective hunting contributed significantly to prehistoric bird extinctions at this site.

Animals↗