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Richard Peto

Publications and source records attributed to Richard Peto.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2026

Cross-Ancestry Proteogenomic Analyses Identified New Therapeutic Insights for Ischemic Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Most drugs target proteins, and proteome-wide genetic analyses in diverse populations could discover potential novel and repurposed targets for improved prevention and treatment of ischemic heart disease (IHD) beyond statin therapy. OBJECTIVES: The purposes of this study were to use cis-acting single nucleotide polymorphisms (cis-pQTLs) identified for plasma proteins in East Asians and Europeans to discover and validate potential drug targets for IHD. METHODS: We measured plasma levels of 9,520 (Olink/SomaScan: 2,923/7,297) proteins in a case-cohort study of IHD (1,976 incident cases and 2,001 subcohort controls) in statin-free individuals in the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). Genome-wide association studies identified 2,895 (Olink/SomaScan: 1,301/1,594) cis-pQTLs for these proteins in CKB. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization analyses assessed associations of all available cis-pQTLs for these proteins with IHD in East Asians (n = 29,319 cases), with further replication in Europeans (n = 181,522 cases) and comparison with findings in previous MR studies. RESULTS: In CKB observational analyses, a total of 959 (Olink/SomaScan: 426/533) proteins were associated at false discovery rate-corrected P < 0.05 with IHD after adjusting for major IHD risk factors. Two-sample MR analyses provided genetic support for 54 unique (Olink/SomaScan: 36/28) proteins in IHD etiology. Colocalization analyses confirmed shared gene-protein-IHD associations (posterior probability of hypothesis 4 [PPH4] &#x2265;0.8) for 15 unique (Olink/SomaScan: 10/10) proteins, including 8 lipid-related, 3 inflammation-related, 1 blood pressure-related, and 3 alcohol-related proteins in East Asians. In Europeans, MR analyses of 12 non-alcohol-related proteins showed directionally concordant results for 8 proteins, with 5 having strong colocalization evidence of shared gene-protein-IHD associations (PPH4 &#x2265;0.8), including 4 lipid-related (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9, LPA, APOE, cadherin-1) and 1 systolic blood pressure-related (fibroblast growth factor 5) protein. However, 4 proteins showed directionally discordant MR results, including 2 lipid-related (APOA5, SORT1) and 1 inflammation-related (transforming growth factor beta 1) proteins with strong colocalization evidence of shared gene-protein-IHD associations (PPH4 &#x2265;0.8). Comparison with previous MR studies revealed little consistency across studies in the number and identity of target proteins for IHD beyond well-established lipid-related (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lipoprotein(a), and triglycerides) or inflammation-related (interleukin-6) protein targets. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support a role for lipid-driven chronic inflammation in IHD etiology, and treatment strategies simultaneously targeting multiple lipid and inflammation pathways should be prioritized for further research to improve drug treatment of IHD beyond statin therapy.

Aged↗
PubMed2006

Social inequalities in male mortality, and in male mortality from smoking: indirect estimation from national death rates in England and Wales, Poland, and North America.

BACKGROUND: There are substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality in many countries. Smoking is often more prevalent among men of lower social class, education, or income. The contribution of smoking to these social inequalities in mortality remains uncertain. METHODS: The contribution of smoking to adult mortality in a population can be estimated indirectly from disease-specific death rates in that population (using absolute lung cancer rates to indicate proportions due to smoking of mortality from certain other diseases). We applied these methods to 1996 death rates at ages 35-69 years in men in three different social strata in four countries, based on a total of 0.6 million deaths. The highest and lowest social strata were based on social class (professional vs unskilled manual) in England and Wales, neighbourhood income (top vs bottom quintile) in urban Canada, and completed years of education (more than vs less than 12 years) in the USA and Poland. RESULTS: In each country, there was about a two-fold difference between the highest and the lowest social strata in overall risks of dying among men aged 35-69 years (England and Wales 21%vs 43%, USA 20%vs 37%, Canada 21%vs 34%, Poland 26%vs 50%: four-country mean 22%vs 41%, four-country mean absolute difference 19%). More than half of this difference in mortality between the top and bottom social strata involved differences in risks of being killed at age 35-69 years by smoking (England and Wales 4%vs 19%, USA 4%vs 15%, Canada 6%vs 13%, Poland 5%vs 22%: four-country mean 5%vs 17%, four-country mean absolute difference 12%). Smoking-attributed mortality accounted for nearly half of total male mortality in the lowest social stratum of each country. CONCLUSION: In these populations, most, but not all, of the substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality during the 1990s were due to the effects of smoking. Widespread cessation of smoking could eventually halve the absolute differences between these social strata in the risk of premature death.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Fibrinogen and coronary heart disease: test of causality by 'Mendelian randomization'.

BACKGROUND: Blood concentrations of fibrinogen have been associated with coronary heart disease risk in epidemiological studies, but it is uncertain whether this association is causal or reflects residual confounding by other risk factors. We investigated the relationship between the single nucleotide polymorphism at position -148 in the beta-fibrinogen gene promoter (beta - 148C/T), blood fibrinogen levels, and risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in sufficiently large numbers of coronary disease cases to reliably address this question. METHODS: Genotyping and measurement of blood fibrinogen concentration were carried out in 4,685 cases of confirmed MI and 3,460 controls with no history of coronary disease. A meta-analysis of ISIS and 19 other studies of beta-fibrinogen genotypes involving a total of 12,220 coronary disease cases and 18,716 controls was conducted. RESULTS: Among the ISIS controls, mean plasma fibrinogen concentrations with the C/C, C/T and T/T genotypes were 3.34 (SE 0.015), 3.48 (0.022), and 3.60 (0.064) g/l, respectively, corresponding to an increase of 0.14 (0.024) g/l per T allele (trend P < 0.0001). In the case-control comparison, 0.14 g/l higher usual plasma fibrinogen concentration was associated with an age-adjusted and sex-adjusted risk ratio for MI of 1.17 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.14-1.19; P < 0.0001]. But, after further adjustment for smoking, body mass index, and plasma apolipoprotein B/A(1) ratio, this risk ratio fell to 1.03 (95% CI 1.00-1.05; P = 0.05). Moreover, fibrinogen genotype was not significantly associated with MI incidence: risk ratio of 1.06 (95% CI 0.96-1.16) per higher-fibrinogen allele in ISIS alone and of 1.00 (95% CI 0.95-1.04) per allele in the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Genotypes that produce lifelong differences in fibrinogen concentrations do not materially influence coronary disease incidence. As these genotype-dependent differences in fibrinogen were allocated randomly at conception (Mendelian randomization), this association is not likely to be confounded by other factors. Consequently, these genetic results provide strong evidence that long-term differences in fibrinogen concentrations are not a major determinant of coronary disease risk.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

[Relationship between smoking and risk of esophageal cancer in 103 areas in China: a large-scale case-control study incorporated into a nationwide survey of mortality].

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between smoking and risk of esophageal cancer (EC), and present a theoretical framework of control selection in population-based case-control study which was incorporated into a nationwide retrospective survey of mortality in China. METHODS: A large-scale population-based case-control study was incorporated into the nationwide retrospective survey of mortality conducted 1989 - 1991 in 24 urban cities selected by non-random sampling and 79 rural counties selected from 3000 counties included in the 1973 - 1975 cancer distribution survey by random sampling during. A questionnaire survey was conducted by home visit to investigate the death causes and smoking history of 19 734 deceased male adults who died of esophageal cancer during 1986 - 1988 at the age >or= 35. Two control groups were set up to undergo questionnaire survey by home visit to investigate the smoking history of the deceased persons and the informants. Control group I included the surviving spouses or other informants of 31 989 male adults who died of non-malignant digestive diseases during 1986 - 1988 at the age >or= 35, and control group II included 104 846 male spouses of the deceased female adults who died of different causes during 1986 - 1989 at the age >or= 35. The relative risks and population smoking attributable risks for EC were calculated using non-conditional logistic model, and the results were compared for consistency between the analyses using two different control groups. RESULTS: The EC absolute death rates were higher in the smokers than in the non-smokers in all urban and rural area groups. The total EC absolute death rate per 1000 among the non-smokers vs. smokers was 0.37:0.65 in the urban areas, 0.99:1.29 in the inland rural areas, and 1.09:1.62 in the coastal rural areas in the control group I, and there was a similar trend in the control group II. There was a significant dose-response relation between the period of smoking and the death risk of EC and between the daily cigarette consumption and the death risk of EC. The risk ratios, for example, for cigarette per day < 10, 10-, and 20- in the urban men were 1.42, 1.82, 2.22 in the control group I (trend test P < 0.01), and 1.57, 1.95, and 3.18 in the control group II (trend test P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Smoking is an important risk factor for mortality from EC in China. Investigating the surviving spouses of the deceased patients is a creative, effective, and feasible trial, with the prerequisite of whole population-based survey, in study of the main types of death and the relevant risk factors.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Serum cotinine level as predictor of lung cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: No prospective studies are available on serum cotinine level as a marker of lung cancer risk. METHODS: We analyzed serum cotinine level among 1,741 individuals enrolled since the 1970s in a prospective study of Norwegian volunteers who developed lung cancer during the follow-up and 1,741 matched controls free from lung cancer. Serum cotinine was measured with a competitive immunoassay. Regression dilution was corrected for based on repeated measures on samples from 747 subjects. RESULTS: Mean serum cotinine level was higher in cases than in controls. Compared with subjects with a cotinine level of < or = 5 ng/mL, the odds ratio of lung cancer was increasing linearly, reaching 55.1 (95% confidence interval, 35.7-85.0) among individuals with a serum cotinine level of > 378 ng/mL. There was no clear suggestion of a plateau in risk at high exposure levels. Odds ratios were very similar in men and women. We found no association between serum cotinine level (range, 0.1-9.9 ng/mL) and lung cancer risk among self-reported nonsmokers and long-term quitters (79 cases and 350 controls). DISCUSSION: The association between tobacco smoking and lung cancer risk might be stronger than is estimated from questionnaire-based studies. Serum cotinine level is a predictor of risk of lung cancer among smokers. The reported plateau in risk at high doses is likely due mainly to artifacts. There is no difference between men and women in the carcinogenicity of tobacco smoking.

Biomarkers↗
PubMed2006

Lymphotoxin-alpha gene and risk of myocardial infarction in 6,928 cases and 2,712 controls in the ISIS case-control study.

Lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that plays an important role in the immune system and local inflammatory response. LTA is expressed in atherosclerotic plaques and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease (CHD). Polymorphisms in the gene encoding lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA) on Chromosome 6p21 have been associated with susceptibility to CHD, but results in different studies appear to be conflicting. We examined the association of seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the LTA gene, and their related haplotypes, with risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in the International Study of Infarct Survival (ISIS) case-control study involving 6,928 non-fatal MI cases and 2,712 unrelated controls. The seven SNPs (including the rs909253 and rs1041981 SNPs previously implicated in the risk of CHD) were in strong linkage disequilibrium with each other and contributed to six common haplotypes. Some of the haplotypes for LTA were associated with higher plasma concentrations of C-reactive protein (p = 0.004) and lower concentrations of albumin (p = 0.023). However, none of the SNPs or related haplotypes were significantly associated with risk of MI. The results of the ISIS study were considered in the context of six previously published studies that had assessed this association, and this meta-analysis found no significant association with CHD risk using a recessive model and only a modest association using a dominant model (with narrow confidence intervals around these risk estimates). Overall, these studies provide reliable evidence that these common polymorphisms for the LTA gene are not strongly associated with susceptibility to coronary disease.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Prospective study of one million deaths in India: rationale, design, and validation results.

BACKGROUND: Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. We report here on the rationale, design, and implementation of the world's largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We will monitor nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households (6.3 million people in 1.1 million households in the 1998-2003 sample frame and 7.6 million people in 1.3 million households in the 2004-2014 sample frame) for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. About 300,000 deaths from 1998-2003 and some 700,000 deaths from 2004-2014 are expected; of these about 850,000 will be coded by two physicians to provide causes of death by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and geographical region. Pilot studies will evaluate the addition of physical and biological measurements, specifically dried blood spots. Preliminary results from over 35,000 deaths suggest that VA can ascertain the leading causes of death, reduce the misclassification of causes, and derive the probable underlying cause of death when it has not been reported. VA yields broad classification of the underlying causes in about 90% of deaths before age 70. In old age, however, the proportion of classifiable deaths is lower. By tracking underlying demographic denominators, the study permits quantification of absolute mortality rates. Household case-control, proportional mortality, and nested case-control methods permit quantification of risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens India's flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Body mass index and mortality from ischaemic heart disease in a lean population: 10 year prospective study of 220,000 adult men.

BACKGROUND: Increased body mass index (BMI) is known to be related to ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in populations where many are overweight (BMI>or=25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI>or=30). Substantial uncertainty remains, however, about the relationship between BMI and IHD in populations with lower BMI levels. METHODS: We examined the data from a population-based, prospective cohort study of 222,000 Chinese men aged 40-79. Relative and absolute risks of death from IHD by baseline BMI were calculated, standardized for age, smoking, and other potential confounding factors. RESULTS: The mean baseline BMI was 21.7 kg/m2, and 1942 IHD deaths were recorded during 10 years of follow-up (6.5% of all such deaths). Among men without prior vascular diseases at baseline, there was a J-shaped association between BMI and IHD mortality. Above 20 kg/m2 there was a positive association of BMI with risk, with each 2 kg/m2 higher in usual BMI associated with 12% (95% CI 6-19%, 2P=0.0001) higher IHD mortality. Below this BMI range, however, the association appeared to be reversed, with risk ratios of 1.00, 1.09, and 1.15, respectively, for men with BMI 20-21.9, 18-19.9, and <18 kg/m2. The excess IHD risk observed at low BMI levels persisted after restricting analysis to never smokers or excluding the first 3 years of follow-up, and became about twice as great after allowing for blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Lower BMI is associated with lower IHD risk among people in the so-called normal range of BMI values (20-25 kg/m2), but below that range the association may well be reversed.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Mortality in relation to alcohol consumption: a prospective study among male British doctors.

BACKGROUND: To relate alcohol consumption patterns to mortality in an elderly population. METHODS: We undertook a 23-year prospective study of 12 000 male British doctors aged 48-78 years in 1978, involving 7000 deaths. Questionnaires about drinking and smoking were completed in 1978 and once again in 1989-91. Mortality analyses are standardized for age, follow-up duration, and smoking, and (during the last decade of the study, 1991-2001) subdivide non-drinkers into never-drinkers and ex-drinkers. RESULTS: In this elderly population, with mean alcohol consumption per drinker of 2 to 3 units per day, the causes of death that are already known to be augmentable by alcohol accounted for only 5% of the deaths (1% liver disease, 2% cancer of the mouth, pharynx, larynx, or oesophagus, and 2% external causes of death) and were significantly elevated only among men consuming >2 units/day. Vascular disease and respiratory disease accounted for more than half of all the deaths and were both significantly less common among current than among non-drinkers; hence, overall mortality was also significantly lower (relative risk, RR 0.81, CI 0.76-0.87, P = 0.001). The non-drinkers, however, include the ex-drinkers, some of whom may have stopped recently because of illness, and during the last decade of the study (1991-2001) overall mortality was significantly higher in the few ex-drinkers who had been current drinkers in 1978 than in the never-drinkers or current drinkers. To avoid bias, these 239 ex-drinkers were considered together with the 6271 current drinkers and compared with the 750 men who had been non-drinkers in both questionnaires. Even so, ischaemic heart disease (RR 0.72, CI 0.58-0.88, P = 0.002), respiratory disease (RR 0.69, CI 0.52-0.92, P = 0.01), and all-cause (RR 0.88, CI 0.79-0.98, P = 0.02) mortality were significantly lower than in the non-drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: Although some of the apparently protective effect of alcohol against disease is artefactual, some of it is real.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Long-term mortality from heart disease and lung cancer after radiotherapy for early breast cancer: prospective cohort study of about 300,000 women in US SEER cancer registries.

BACKGROUND: Radiotherapy for early breast cancer can decrease breast cancer mortality but increase other mortality, mainly from heart disease and lung cancer. The mean cardiac dose from irradiation of a left-sided breast cancer can be two or three times that for a right-sided breast cancer. The mean ipsilateral (ie, on the same side as the breast cancer) lung dose can also be two or three times the mean contralateral lung dose. Particularly during the 1970s, when typical heart and lung exposures were greater than now, the laterality of an irradiated breast cancer could measurably affect cardiac mortality and mortality from cancer of the right or the left lung decades later. This study aimed to assess the hazards in the general US population from routine cancer-registry and death-certificate data. METHODS: We analysed data for 308 861 US women with early breast cancer of known laterality (left-sided or right-sided) who were registered in the US Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registries during 1973-2001 and followed prospectively for cause-specific mortality until Jan 1, 2002. FINDINGS: 115 165 (37%) received radiotherapy. Among those who did not, tumour laterality was of little relevance to subsequent mortality. For women diagnosed during 1973-82 and irradiated, the cardiac mortality ratio (left versus right tumour laterality) was 1.20 (95% CI 1.04-1.38) less than 10 years afterwards, 1.42 (1.11-1.82) 10-14 years afterwards, and 1.58 (1.29-1.95) after 15 years or more (trend: 2p=0.03). For women diagnosed during 1983-92 and irradiated, the cardiac mortality ratio was 1.04 (0.91-1.18) less than 10 years afterwards and 1.27 (0.99-1.63) 10 or more years afterwards. For women diagnosed during 1993-2001 and irradiated the cardiac mortality ratio was 0.96 (0.82-1.12), with none yet followed for 10 years. Among women irradiated for breast cancer who subsequently developed an ipsilateral or contralateral lung cancer, the lung cancer mortality ratio (ipsilateral versus contralateral) for women diagnosed during 1973-82 and irradiated was 1.17 (0.62-2.19), 2.00 (1.00-4.00), and 2.71 (1.65-4.48), respectively, less than 10 years, 10-14 years, and 15 or more years afterwards (trend: 2p=0.04). For women irradiated after 1982 there is, as yet, little information on lung cancer risks more than 10 years afterwards. INTERPRETATION: US breast cancer radiotherapy regimens of the 1970s and early 1980s appreciably increased mortality from heart disease and lung cancer 10-20 years afterwards with, as yet, little direct evidence on the hazards after more than 20 years. Since the early 1980s, improvements in radiotherapy planning should have reduced such risks, but the long-term hazards in the general populations of various countries still need to be monitored directly.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Verbal autopsy of 80,000 adult deaths in Tamilnadu, South India.

BACKGROUND: Registration of the fact of death is almost complete in the city of Chennai and not so in the rural Villupuram district in Tamilnadu, India. The cause of death is often inadequately recorded on the death certificate in developing countries like India. A special verbal autopsy (VA) study of 48,000 adult (aged >or= 25 yrs) deaths in the city of Chennai (urban) during 1995-97 and 32,000 in rural Villupuram during 1997-98 was conducted to arrive at the probable underlying cause of death to estimate cause specific mortality. METHODS: A ten day training on writing verbal autopsy (VA) report for adult deaths was given to non-medical graduates with at least 15 years of formal education. They interviewed surviving spouse/close associates of the deceased to write a verbal autopsy report in local language (Tamil) on the complaints, symptoms, signs, duration and treatment details of illness prior to death. Each report was reviewed centrally by two physicians independently. Random re-interviewing of 5% of the VA reports was done to check the reliability and reproducibility of the VA report. The validity of VA diagnosis was assessed only for cancer deaths. RESULTS: Verbal autopsy reduced the proportion of deaths attributed to unspecified and unknown causes from 54% to 23% (p < 0.0001) in urban and from 41% to 26% (p < 0.0001) in rural areas in Tamilnadu for adult deaths (>or= 25). The sensitivity of VA to identify cancer was 95% in the age group 25-69. CONCLUSION: A ten day training programme to write verbal autopsy report with adequate feed back sessions and random sampling of 5% of the verbal autopsy reports for re-interview worked very well in Tamilnadu, to arrive at the probable underlying cause of death reliably for deaths in early adult life or middle age (25-69 years) and less reliably for older ages (70+). Thus VA is practicable for deaths in early adult life or middle age and is of more limited value in old age.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Lipid-related genes and myocardial infarction in 4685 cases and 3460 controls: discrepancies between genotype, blood lipid concentrations, and coronary disease risk.

BACKGROUND: Blood lipid concentrations are causally related to the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Various associations between CHD risk and genes that moderately affect plasma lipid levels have been described, but previous studies have typically involved too few 'cases' to assess these associations reliably. METHODS: The present study involves 4685 cases of myocardial infarction (MI) and 3460 unrelated controls without diagnosed cardiovascular disease. Six polymorphisms of four 'lipid-related' genes were genotyped. RESULTS: For the apolipoprotein E epsilon2/epsilon3/epsilon4 polymorphism, the average increase in the plasma ratio of apolipoprotein B to apolipoprotein A(1) (apoB/apoA(1) ratio) among controls was 0.082 (s.e. 0.007) per stepwise change from epsilon3/epsilon2 to epsilon3/epsilon3 to epsilon3/epsilon4 genotype (trend P < 0.0001). The case-control comparison yielded a risk ratio for MI of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.27; P = 0.001) per stepwise change in these genotypes. But, this risk ratio was not as extreme as would have been expected from the corresponding differences in plasma apoB/apoA(1) ratio between genotypes. Hence, following adjustment for the measured level of the plasma apoB/apoA(1) ratio, the direction of the risk ratio per stepwise change reversed to 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.92; P < 0.001). Similarly, for the apolipoprotein B Asn4311Ser and Thr71Ile polymorphisms, genotypes associated with more adverse plasma apolipoprotein concentrations were associated with significantly lower risk of MI after adjustment for the apoB/apoA(1) ratio. The B2 allele of the cholesteryl ester transfer protein TaqIb polymorphism was associated with a significantly lower plasma apoB/apoA(1) ratio, but with no significant difference in the risk of MI. Finally, the lipoprotein lipase Asn291Ser and T4509C (PvuII) polymorphisms did not produce clear effects on either the plasma apoB/apoA(1) ratio or the risk of MI. CONCLUSIONS: It remains unresolved why some of these genetic factors that produce lifelong effects on plasma lipid concentrations have significantly less than the correspondingly expected effects on CHD rates in adult life.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the hazards of cigarette smoking in men who formed their habits at different periods, and the extent of the reduction in risk when cigarette smoking is stopped at different ages. DESIGN: Prospective study that has continued from 1951 to 2001. SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 34 439 male British doctors. Information about their smoking habits was obtained in 1951, and periodically thereafter; cause specific mortality was monitored for 50 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall mortality by smoking habit, considering separately men born in different periods. RESULTS: The excess mortality associated with smoking chiefly involved vascular, neoplastic, and respiratory diseases that can be caused by smoking. Men born in 1900-1930 who smoked only cigarettes and continued smoking died on average about 10 years younger than lifelong non-smokers. Cessation at age 60, 50, 40, or 30 years gained, respectively, about 3, 6, 9, or 10 years of life expectancy. The excess mortality associated with cigarette smoking was less for men born in the 19th century and was greatest for men born in the 1920s. The cigarette smoker versus non-smoker probabilities of dying in middle age (35-69) were 42% nu 24% (a twofold death rate ratio) for those born in 1900-1909, but were 43% nu 15% (a threefold death rate ratio) for those born in the 1920s. At older ages, the cigarette smoker versus non-smoker probabilities of surviving from age 70 to 90 were 10% nu 12% at the death rates of the 1950s (that is, among men born around the 1870s) but were 7% nu 33% (again a threefold death rate ratio) at the death rates of the 1990s (that is, among men born around the 1910s). CONCLUSION: A substantial progressive decrease in the mortality rates among non-smokers over the past half century (due to prevention and improved treatment of disease) has been wholly outweighed, among cigarette smokers, by a progressive increase in the smoker nu non-smoker death rate ratio due to earlier and more intensive use of cigarettes. Among the men born around 1920, prolonged cigarette smoking from early adult life tripled age specific mortality rates, but cessation at age 50 halved the hazard, and cessation at age 30 avoided almost all of it.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Effect of temperature and light on the stability of fat-soluble vitamins in whole blood over several days: implications for epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Biochemical measurement of fat-soluble vitamins would allow direct assessment in epidemiological studies of their association with disease. However, the perceived instability of these compounds and typically high cost of collection and analysis may make their measurement impractical, particularly in large-scale studies. Using a high performance liquid chromatography assay developed in-house, we have investigated the separate effects of temperature and light on the stability of vitamins in whole blood over several days. METHODS: Multiple blood samples from 10 volunteers were stored at 20 degrees C or 4 degrees C and in dark or light conditions. Immediately after collection and 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7 days later, samples stored under each condition were centrifuged, and the plasma was aliquoted and stored at -80 degrees C. Subsequently, all aliquots from each individual were analysed in one analytical run. RESULTS: In whole blood stored under any of the four conditions for up to 7 days, concentrations of alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, lutein, lycopene, retinol, and alpha-tocopherol changed by less than 8%, and cryptoxanthin and gamma-tocopherol by less than 11%. Although significant temperature effects were observed for alpha-carotene, and alpha- and gamma-tocopherol, and a significant effect of light was observed for alpha-carotene, cryptoxanthin, and lycopene, these analytes changed by less than 1% per day under all conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Concentrations of these fat-soluble vitamins change by only a few per cent in whole blood during storage at room temperature for several days. Hence, delayed separation of blood samples (which may be required for practical reasons in large-scale epidemiological studies) does not preclude reliable measurement of fat-soluble vitamins.

Adult↗