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Biomedical subjects

Robert A Wolfe

Publications and source records attributed to Robert A Wolfe.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2007

A shared random effects model for censored medical costs and mortality.

In this paper, we propose a model for medical costs recorded at regular time intervals, e.g. every month, as repeated measures in the presence of a terminating event, such as death. Prior models have related monthly medical costs to time since entry, with extra costs at the final observations at the time of death. Our joint model for monthly medical costs and survival time incorporates two important new features. First, medical cost and survival may be correlated because more 'frail' patients tend to accumulate medical costs faster and die earlier. A joint random effects model is proposed to account for the correlation between medical costs and survival by a shared random effect. Second, monthly medical costs usually increase during the time period prior to death because of the intensive care for dying patients. We present a method for estimating the pattern of cost prior to death, which is applicable if the pattern can be characterized as an additive effect that is limited to a fixed time interval, say b units of time before death. This 'turn back time' method for censored observations censors cost data b units of time before the actual censoring time, while keeping the actual censoring time for the survival data. Time-dependent covariates can be included. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference are carried out through a Monte Carlo EM algorithm with a Metropolis-Hastings sampler in the E-step. An analysis of monthly outpatient EPO medical cost data for dialysis patients is presented to illustrate the proposed methods.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2006

Understanding the basic case-mix adjustment for the composite rate.

In April 2005, Medicare began adjusting payments to dialysis providers for composite-rate services for a limited set of patient characteristics, including age, body surface area, and low body mass index. We present analyses intended to help the end-stage renal disease community understand the empirical reasons behind the new composite-rate basic case-mix adjustment. The U-shaped relationship between age and composite-rate cost that is reflected in the basic case-mix adjustment has generated significant discussion within the end-stage renal disease community. Whereas greater costs among older patients are consistent with conventional wisdom, greater costs among younger patients are caused in part by more skipped sessions and a greater incidence of certain costly comorbidities. Longer treatment times for patients with a greater body surface area combined with the largely fixed cost structure of dialysis facilities explains much of the greater cost for larger patients. The basic case-mix adjustment reflects an initial and partial adjustment for the cost of providing composite-rate services.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

A sequential stratification method for estimating the effect of a time-dependent experimental treatment in observational studies.

Survival analysis is often used to compare experimental and conventional treatments. In observational studies, the therapy may change during follow-up and such crossovers can be summarized by time-dependent covariates. Given the ever-increasing donor organ shortage, higher-risk kidneys from expanded criterion donors (ECD) are being transplanted. Transplant candidates can choose whether to accept an ECD organ (experimental therapy), or to remain on dialysis and wait for a possible non-ECD transplant later (conventional therapy). A three-group time-dependent analysis of such data involves estimating parameters corresponding to two time-dependent indicator covariates representing ECD transplant and non-ECD transplant, each compared to remaining on dialysis on the waitlist. However, the ECD hazard ratio estimated by this time-dependent analysis fails to account for the fact that patients who forego an ECD transplant are not destined to remain on dialysis forever, but could subsequently receive a non-ECD transplant. We propose a novel method of estimating the survival benefit of ECD transplantation relative to conventional therapy (waitlist with possible subsequent non-ECD transplant). Compared to the time-dependent analysis, the proposed method more accurately characterizes the data structure and yields a more direct estimate of the relative outcome with an ECD transplant.

Biometry↗
PubMed2005

Deceased-donor characteristics and the survival benefit of kidney transplantation.

CONTEXT: Transplantation using kidneys from deceased donors who meet the expanded criteria donor (ECD) definition (age > or =60 years or 50 to 59 years with at least 2 of the following: history of hypertension, serum creatinine level >1.5 mg/dL [132.6 micromol/L], and cerebrovascular cause of death) is associated with 70% higher risk of graft failure compared with non-ECD transplants. However, if ECD transplants offer improved overall patient survival, inferior graft outcome may represent an acceptable trade-off. OBJECTIVE: To compare mortality after ECD kidney transplantation vs that in a combined standard-therapy group of non-ECD recipients and those still receiving dialysis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Retrospective cohort study using data from a US national registry of mortality and graft outcomes among kidney transplant candidates and recipients. The cohort included 109,127 patients receiving dialysis and added to the kidney waiting list between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2002, and followed up through July 31, 2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Long-term (3-year) relative risk of mortality for ECD kidney recipients vs those receiving standard therapy, estimated using time-dependent Cox regression models. RESULTS: By end of follow-up, 7790 ECD kidney transplants were performed. Because of excess ECD recipient mortality in the perioperative period, cumulative survival did not equal that of standard-therapy patients until 3.5 years posttransplantation. Long-term relative mortality risk was 17% lower for ECD recipients (relative risk, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.90; P<.001). Subgroups with significant ECD survival benefit included patients older than 40 years, both sexes, non-Hispanics, all races, unsensitized patients, and those with diabetes or hypertension. In organ procurement organizations (OPOs) with long median waiting times (>1350 days), ECD recipients had a 27% lower risk of death (relative risk, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.83; P<.001). In areas with shorter waiting times, only recipients with diabetes demonstrated an ECD survival benefit. CONCLUSIONS: ECD kidney transplants should be offered principally to candidates older than 40 years in OPOs with long waiting times. In OPOs with shorter waiting times, in which non-ECD kidney transplant availability is higher, candidates should be counseled that ECD survival benefit is observed only for patients with diabetes.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Economic impact of case-mix adjusting the dialysis composite rate.

The Medicare program reimburses dialysis providers a flat rate for a bundle of services that comprise the basic dialysis treatment. This payment system is being modified to incorporate case-mix adjustment for age and body size, which have been shown to influence dialysis costs. This study simulated the economic impact of the recently issued Medicare rule on case-mix adjustment by estimating the variation in payments across patients, facilities, and broad classes of facilities. Case-mix adjustment results in considerable patient-level variation in payments (dollar 12.99 SD in case-mix adjusted payments). The variation across dialysis facilities is smaller but still economically significant (dollar 3.77 SD). However, there was little evidence that particular classes of facilities (e.g., ownership, chain membership, size) will be substantially advantaged or disadvantaged by case-mix adjustment. There do seem to be modest changes in the regional distribution of payments.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Hepatitis C is a risk factor for death after liver retransplantation.

Retransplantation for liver allograft failure associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been increasing due to nearly universal posttransplant HCV recurrence and has been demonstrated to be associated with poor outcomes. We report on the risk factors for death after retransplantation among liver recipients with HCV. A retrospective cohort of liver transplant recipients who underwent retransplantation between January 1997 and December 2002 was identified in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database. Cox regression was used to assess the relative effect of HCV diagnosis on mortality risk after retransplantation and was adjusted for multiple covariates. Of 1,718 liver retransplantations during the study period, 464 (27%) were associated with a diagnosis of HCV infection. Based on Cox regression, retransplant recipients with HCV had a 30% higher covariate-adjusted mortality risk than those without HCV diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.54; P = 0.002). Other covariates associated with significant relative risk of death after retransplantation included older recipient age, presence in an intensive care unit (ICU), serum creatinine, and donor age. Additional regression analysis revealed that the increase in mortality risk associated with HCV was concentrated between 3 and 24 months postretransplantation, among patients age 18 to 39 at retransplant, and in patients retransplanted during the years 2000 to 2002. In conclusion, HCV liver recipients account for a considerable proportion of all retransplantations performed. Surprisingly, younger age predicted a higher mortality for recipients with HCV undergoing liver retransplantation. This may reflect a willingness to retransplant younger patients with an increased severity of illness or a more virulent HCV infection in this population. Although HCV was predictive of an increased risk of death, consideration of other characteristics of HCV patients, including donor and recipient age and need for preoperative ICU care may identify those at significantly higher risk.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Improvements in dialysis patient mortality are associated with improvements in urea reduction ratio and hematocrit, 1999 to 2002.

BACKGROUND: Benefits in terms of reductions in mortality corresponding to improvements in Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (K/DOQI) compliance for adequacy of dialysis dose and anemia control have not been documented in the literature. We studied changes in achieving K/DOQI guidelines at the facility level to determine whether those changes are associated with corresponding changes in mortality. METHODS: Adjusted mortality and fractions of patients achieving K/DOQI guidelines for urea reduction ratios (URRs; > or =65%) and hematocrit levels (> or =33%) were computed for 2,858 dialysis facilities from 1999 to 2002 using national data for patients with end-stage renal disease. Linear and Poisson regression were used to study the relationship between K/DOQI compliance and mortality and between changes in compliance and changes in mortality. RESULTS: In 2002, facilities in the lowest quintile of K/DOQI compliance for URR and hematocrit guidelines had 22% and 14% greater mortality rates (P < 0.0001) than facilities in the highest quintile, respectively. A 10-percentage point increase in fraction of patients with a URR of 65% or greater was associated with a 2.2% decrease in mortality (P = 0.0006), and a 10-percentage point increase in percentage of patients with a hematocrit of 33% or greater was associated with a 1.5% decrease in mortality (P = 0.003). Facilities in the highest tertiles of improvement for URR and hematocrit had a change in mortality rates that was 15% better than those observed for facilities in the lowest tertiles (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Both current practice and changes in practices with regard to achieving anemia and dialysis-dose guidelines are associated significantly with mortality outcomes at the dialysis-facility level.

Anemia↗
PubMed2005

Quality of life in chronic kidney disease (CKD): a cross-sectional analysis in the Renal Research Institute-CKD study.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (QOL) is an important measure of how disease affects patients' lives. Dialysis patients have decreased QOL relative to healthy controls. Little is known about QOL in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) before renal replacement therapy. METHODS: The Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 (SF-36), a standard QOL instrument, was used to evaluate 634 patients (mean glomerular filtration rate [GFR], 23.6 +/- 9.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 [0.39 +/- 0.16 mL/s/1.73 m2]) enrolled in a 4-center, prospective, observational study of CKD. SF-36 scores in these patients were compared with those in a prevalent cohort of hemodialysis (HD) patients and healthy controls (both from historical data). QOL data also were analyzed for correlations with GFR and albumin and hemoglobin levels in multivariable analyses. RESULTS: Patients with CKD had higher SF-36 scores than a large cohort of HD patients (P < 0.0001 for 8 scales and 2 summary scales), but lower scores than those reported for the US adult population (P < 0.0001 for 7 of 8 scales and 1 of 2 summary scales). Patients with CKD stage 4 had lower QOL scores than patients with CKD stage 5, although differences were not significant. Hemoglobin level was associated positively with higher mental and physical QOL scores (P < 0.05) in all individual and component scales except Pain. CONCLUSION: SF-36 scores were higher in this CKD cohort compared with HD patients, but lower than in healthy controls. GFR was not significantly associated with QOL. Hemoglobin level predicted both physical and mental domains of the SF-36. Longitudinal studies are needed to define at-risk periods for decreases in QOL during progression of CKD.

Black or African American↗
PubMed2005

Kidney transplantation and wait-listing rates from the international Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS).

BACKGROUND: The international Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS I and II) allows description of variations in kidney transplantation and wait-listing from nationally representative samples of 18- to 65-year-old hemodialysis patients. The present study examines the health status and socioeconomic characteristics of United States patients, the role of for-profit versus not-for-profit status of dialysis facilities, and the likelihood of transplant wait-listing and transplantation rates. METHODS: Analyses of transplantation rates were based on 5267 randomly selected DOPPS I patients in dialysis units in the United States, Europe, and Japan who received chronic hemodialysis therapy for at least 90 days in 2000. Left-truncated Cox regression was used to assess time to kidney transplantation. Logistic regression determined the odds of being transplant wait-listed for a cross-section of 1323 hemodialysis patients in the United States in 2000. Furthermore, kidney transplant wait-listing was determined in 12 countries from cross-sectional samples of DOPPS II hemodialysis patients in 2002 to 2003 (N= 4274). RESULTS: Transplantation rates varied widely, from very low in Japan to 25-fold higher in the United States and 75-fold higher in Spain (both P values <0.0001). Factors associated with higher rates of transplantation included younger age, nonblack race, less comorbidity, fewer years on dialysis, higher income, and higher education levels. The likelihood of being wait-listed showed wide variation internationally and by United States region but not by for-profit dialysis unit status within the United States. CONCLUSION: DOPPS I and II confirmed large variations in kidney transplantation rates by country, even after adjusting for differences in case mix. Facility size and, in the United States, profit status, were not associated with varying transplantation rates. International results consistently showed higher transplantation rates for younger, healthier, better-educated, and higher income patients.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Analytical approaches for transplant research, 2004.

This article provides detailed explanations of the methods frequently employed in outcomes analyses performed by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). All aspects of the analytical process are discussed, including cohort selection, post-transplant follow-up analysis, outcome definition, ascertainment of events, censoring, and adjustments. The methods employed for descriptive analyses are described, such as unadjusted mortality rates and survival probabilities, and the estimation of covariant effects through regression modeling. A section on transplant waiting time focuses on the kidney and liver waiting lists, pointing out the different considerations each list requires and the larger questions that such analyses raise. Additionally, this article describes specialized modeling strategies recently designed by the SRTR and aimed at specific organ allocation issues. The article concludes with a description of simulated allocation modeling (SAM), which has been developed by the SRTR for three organ systems: liver, thoracic organs, and kidney-pancreas. SAMs are particularly useful for comparing outcomes for proposed national allocation policies. The use of SAMs has already helped in the development and implementation of a new policy for liver candidates with high MELD scores to be offered organs regionally before the organs are offered to candidates with low MELD scores locally.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗
PubMed2005

The survival benefit of liver transplantation.

Demand for liver transplantation continues to exceed donor organ supply. Comparing recipient survival to that of comparable candidates without a transplant can improve understanding of transplant survival benefit. Waiting list and post-transplant mortality was studied among a cohort of 12 996 adult patients placed on the waiting list between 2001 and 2003. Time-dependent Cox regression models were fitted to determine relative mortality rates for candidates and recipients. Overall, deceased donor transplant recipients had a 79% lower mortality risk than candidates (HR = 0.21; p < 0.001). At Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 18-20, mortality risk was 38% lower (p < 0.01) among recipients compared to candidates. Survival benefit increased with increasing MELD score; at the maximum score of 40, recipient mortality risk was 96% lower than that for candidates (p < 0.001). In contrast, at lower MELD scores, recipient mortality risk during the first post-transplant year was much higher than for candidates (HR = 3.64 at MELD 6-11, HR = 2.35 at MELD 12-14; both p < 0.001). Liver transplant survival benefit at 1 year is concentrated among patients at higher risk of pre-transplant death. Futile transplants among severely ill patients are not identified under current practice. With 1 year post-transplant follow-up, patients at lower risk of pre-transplant death do not have a demonstrable survival benefit from liver transplant.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

A test for informative censoring in clustered survival data.

Frailty models are frequently used to analyse clustered survival data. The assumption of non-informative censoring is commonly used by these models, even though it may not be true in many situations. This article proposes a test for this assumption. It uses the estimated correlation between two types of martingale residuals, one from a model for failure and the other from a model for censoring. It distinguishes two types of censoring, namely withdrawal and the end of the study. Simulation studies show that the proposed test works well under various scenarios. For illustration, the test is applied to a data set for kidney disease patients from multiple dialysis centres.

Cluster Analysis↗
PubMed2004

Effect of changing the priority for HLA matching on the rates and outcomes of kidney transplantation in minority groups.

BACKGROUND: HLA typing and the time a patient has spent on the waiting list are the primary criteria used to allocate cadaveric kidneys for transplantation in the United States. Candidates with no HLA-A, B, and DR mismatches are given top priority, followed by candidates with the fewest mismatches at the HLA-B and DR loci; this policy contributes to a higher transplantation rate among whites than nonwhites. We hypothesized that changing this allocation policy would affect graft survival and the racial balance among transplant recipients. METHODS: We estimated the relative rates of kidney transplantation according to race resulting from the current allocation policy and racial differences in HLA antigen profiles, using a Cox model for the time from placement on the waiting list to transplantation. Another model, also adjusted for HLA-B and DR antigen profiles, estimated the relative rates of kidney transplantation that would result if the distribution of these antigen profiles were identical among the racial and ethnic groups. We also investigated the effect of HLA matching on the risk of graft failure, using a Cox model for the time from the first transplantation to graft failure. The results of the two analyses were used to estimate the change in the racial balance of transplantation and graft-failure rates that would result from the elimination of HLA-B matching or HLA-B and DR matching as a means of assigning priority. RESULTS: Eliminating the HLA-B matching as a priority while maintaining HLA-DR matching as a priority would decrease the number of transplantations among whites by 4.0 percent (166 fewer transplantations over a one-year period), whereas it would increase the number among nonwhites by 6.3 percent and increase the rate of graft loss by 2.0 percent. CONCLUSIONS: Removing HLA-B matching as a priority for the allocation of cadaveric kidneys could reduce the existing racial imbalance by increasing the number of transplantations among nonwhites, with only a small increase in the rate of graft loss.

Ethnicity↗
PubMed2004

Immunosuppression and the risk of post-transplant malignancy among cadaveric first kidney transplant recipients.

The success of renal transplantation may be counterbalanced by serious adverse medical events. The effect of immunosuppression on the incidence of de novo neoplasms among kidney recipients should be monitored continuously. Using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we studied the association of induction therapy by immunosuppression with antilymphocyte antibodies, with the development of de novo neoplasms. The study population included more than 41 000 recipients who received a cadaveric first kidney transplant after December 31, 1995, and were followed through February 28, 2002. Using Cox regression models, we estimated time to development of two types of malignancy: de novo solid tumors and post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder (PTLD). We made adjustments for several patient demographic factors and comorbidities. Induction therapy was significantly associated with a higher relative risk (RR) of PTLD (RR = 1.78, p < 0.001), but not with a greater likelihood of de novo tumors (RR = 1.07, p = 0.42). Treatment with maintenance tacrolimus vs. cyclosporine showed a significantly different RR of developing de novo tumors for recipients with induction than for those not receiving induction (p = 0.024). These new estimates of the magnitude of malignancy risk associated with induction therapy may be useful for clinical practice.

Cadaver↗
PubMed2004

Prevalence and outcomes of multiple-listing for cadaveric kidney and liver transplantation.

Transplant candidates are permitted to register on multiple waiting lists. We examined multiple-listing practices and outcomes, using data on 81 481 kidney and 26 260 liver candidates registered between 7/1/95 and 6/30/00. Regression models identified factors associated with multiple-listing and its effect on relative rates of transplantation, waiting list mortality, kidney graft failure, and liver transplant mortality. Overall, 5.8% (kidney) and 3.3% (liver) of candidates multiple-listed. Non-white race, older age, non-private insurance, and lower educational level were associated with significantly lower odds of multiple-listing. While multiple-listed, transplantation rates were significantly higher for nearly all kidney and liver candidate subgroups (relative rate [RR]= 1.42-2.29 and 1.82-7.41, respectively). Waiting list mortality rates were significantly lower while multiple-listed for 11 kidney subgroups (RR = 0.22-0.72) but significantly higher for 7 liver subgroups (RR = 1.44-5.93), suggesting multiple-listing by healthier kidney candidates and sicker liver candidates. Graft failure was 10% less likely among multiple-listed kidney recipients. Multiple- and single-listed liver recipients had similar post-transplant mortality rates. Although specific factors characterize those transplant candidates likely to multiple-list, transplant access is significantly enhanced for almost all multiple-listed kidney and liver candidates.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

High dialysis dose is associated with lower mortality among women but not among men.

BACKGROUND: Several observational studies reported lower mortality risk among hemodialysis patients treated with doses greater than the standard dose. The present study evaluates, with observational data, the secondary randomized Hemodialysis (HEMO) Study finding that greater dialysis dose may benefit women, but not men. METHODS: Data from 74,120 US hemodialysis patients starting end-stage renal disease therapy were analyzed. Patients were classified into 1 of 5 categories of hemodialysis dose according to their average urea reduction ratio (URR), and their relative risk (RR) for mortality was evaluated by using Cox proportional hazards models. Similar analyses using equilibrated Kt/V were completed for 10,816 hemodialysis patients in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) in 7 countries. RESULTS: For both men and women, RR was substantially lower in the URR 70%-to-75% category compared with the URR 65%-to-70% category. Among women, RR in the URR greater-than-75% category was significantly lower compared with the URR 70%-to-75% group (P < 0.0001); however, no further association with mortality risk was observed for the greater-than-75% category among men (P = 0.22). RR associated with doses greater than the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative guidelines (URR > or = 65%) was significantly different for men compared with women (P < 0.01). Similar differences by sex were observed in DOPPS analyses. CONCLUSION: The agreement of these observational studies with the HEMO Study supports the existence of a survival benefit from greater dialysis doses for women, but not for men. Responses to greater dialysis dose by sex deserve additional study to explain these differences.

Aged↗
PubMed2004

The Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS): design, data elements, and methodology.

The Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) is a prospective, observational study designed to elucidate aspects of hemodialysis practice that are associated with the best outcomes for hemodialysis patients. In DOPPS I, 308 hemodialysis units from 7 countries participated, including 145 facilities from the United States (1996-2001), 62 facilities from Japan (1999-2001), and 101 facilities from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom (all 1998-2000). DOPPS II (2002-2004) has included 320 hemodialysis units and more than 12,400 hemodialysis patients from the 7 DOPPS I countries as well as Australia, Belgium, Canada, New Zealand, and Sweden. Dialysis units are chosen via a stratified random selection procedure to provide proportional sampling by region and type of facility within each country. In DOPPS I and II, longitudinal data have been collected from both a prevalent (cross-sectional) patient sample and an incident patient sample. Data have also been collected on numerous facility practice patterns. Most DOPPS analyses incorporate both facility- and patient-level data in regression-based analyses to investigate predictors of survival, hospitalization, quality of life, vascular access type, and other outcomes. DOPPS longitudinal data also help identify trends in subject characteristics, practice indicators, medication use, and outcomes. The DOPPS remains a unique source of data on hemodialysis patients and facilities. It continues to refine its methods of data collection and analysis with the goal of improving hemodialysis practice and end-stage renal disease patient lives worldwide.

Humans↗