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Robert D Holt

Publications and source records attributed to Robert D Holt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Subthreshold and superthreshold coexistence of pathogen variants: the impact of host age-structure.

It is well known that in the most general epidemic models with multiple pathogen variants a competitive exclusion principle is valid, such that the variant with the highest reproduction number eliminates the rest. Mechanisms such as super-infection, coinfection, and cross-immunity can lead to pathogen polymorphism where multiple strains coexist. It is also known that variability of infectivity with host age can destabilize the endemic equilibrium and cause oscillations. In this article we show that the hosts' chronological age can itself lead to coexistence of microparasites in the most basic model where competitive exclusion will occur without the age structure. Moreover, the host age-structure leads to multiple subthreshold dominance equilibria, and both weakly and strongly subthreshold coexistence. We find that the two pathogens cannot cooperate to persist subthreshold if neither one of them can persist subthreshold by itself. If, however, one of them can persist subthreshold by itself, it can cause the two pathogens to coexist in a strongly subthreshold equilibrium. The second strain that persists subthreshold through the mediation of the first always has a lower virulence. Our results show that age structure in infectivity can permit the coexistence of competing pathogens when the incidence is of proportionate mixing type (frequency-dependent transmission) and at least one of the strains is virulent.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2006

Emergent neutrality.

Community ecology is in a current state of creative ferment, stimulated by the development of neutral models of community organization. Here, I reflect on recent papers by Scheffer and van Nes, and by Gravel et al., which illuminate how neutrality can emerge from ecological and evolutionary processes, thus suggesting ways to unify neutral and niche perspectives.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2006

Viral ecology and the maintenance of novel host use.

Viruses can occasionally emerge by infecting new host species. However, the early phases of emergence can hinge upon ecological sustainability of the virus population, which is a product of both within-host population growth and between-host transmission. Insufficient growth or transmission can force virus extinction before the latter phases of emergence, where genetic adaptations that improve host use may occur. We examined the early phase of emergence by studying the population dynamics of RNA phages in replicated laboratory environments containing native and novel host bacteria. To predict the breadth of transmission rates allowing viral persistence on each species, we developed a simple model based on in vitro data for phage growth rate over a range of initial population densities on both hosts. Validation of these predictions using serial passage experiments revealed a range of transmission rates for which the native host was a source and the novel host was a sink. In this critical range of transmission rates, periodic exposure to the native host was sufficient for the maintenance of the viral population on the novel host. We argue that this effect should facilitate adaptation by the virus to utilize the novel host--often crucial in subsequent phases of emergence.

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2006

Predation on mutualists can reduce the strength of trophic cascades.

Ecologists have put forth several mechanisms to predict the strength of predator effects on producers (a trophic cascade). We suggest a novel mechanism--in systems in which mutualists of plants are present and important, predators can have indirect negative effects on producers through their consumption of mutualists. The strength of predator effects on producers will depend on their relative consumption of mutualists and antagonists, and on the relative importance of each to producer population dynamics. In a meta-analysis of experiments that examine the effects of predator reduction on the pollination and reproductive success of plants, we found that the indirect negative effects of predators on plants are quite strong. Most predator removal experiments measure the strength of predator effects on producers through the antagonist pathway; we suggest that a more complete understanding of the role of predators will be achieved by simultaneously considering the effects of predators on plant mutualists.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Trophic cascades across ecosystems.

Predation can be intense, creating strong direct and indirect effects throughout food webs. In addition, ecologists increasingly recognize that fluxes of organisms across ecosystem boundaries can have major consequences for community dynamics. Species with complex life histories often shift habitats during their life cycles and provide potent conduits coupling ecosystems. Thus, local interactions that affect predator abundance in one ecosystem (for example a larval habitat) may have reverberating effects in another (for example an adult habitat). Here we show that fish indirectly facilitate terrestrial plant reproduction through cascading trophic interactions across ecosystem boundaries. Fish reduce larval dragonfly abundances in ponds, leading to fewer adult dragonflies nearby. Adult dragonflies consume insect pollinators and alter their foraging behaviour. As a result, plants near ponds with fish receive more pollinator visits and are less pollen limited than plants near fish-free ponds. Our results confirm that strong species interactions can reverberate across ecosystems, and emphasize the importance of landscape-level processes in driving local species interactions.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Temporal autocorrelation can enhance the persistence and abundance of metapopulations comprised of coupled sinks.

In spatially heterogeneous landscapes, some habitats may be persistent sources, providing immigrants to sustain populations in unfavorable sink habitats (where extinction is inevitable without immigration). Recent theoretical and empirical studies of source-sink systems demonstrate that temporally variable local growth rates in sinks can substantially increase average abundance of a persisting population, provided that the variation is positively autocorrelated--in effect, temporal variation inflates average abundance. Here we extend these results to a metapopulation in which all habitat patches are sinks. Using numerical studies of a population with discrete generations (buttressed by analytic results), we show that temporal variation and moderate dispersal can jointly permit indefinite persistence of the metapopulation and that positive autocorrelation both lowers the magnitude of variation required for persistence and increases the average abundance of persisting metapopulations. These effects are weakened--but not destroyed--if variation in local growth rates is spatially synchronized and dispersal is localized. We show that the inflationary effect is robust to a number of extensions of the basic model, including demographic stochasticity and density dependence. Because ecological and environmental processes contributing to temporally variable growth rates in natural populations are typically autocorrelated, these observations may have important implications for species persistence.

Ecosystem↗
PubMed2005

Phytoplankton species richness scales consistently from laboratory microcosms to the world's oceans.

Species-area relationships have been observed for virtually all major groups of macroorganisms that have been studied to date but have not been explored for microscopic phytoplankton algae, which are the dominant producers in many freshwater and marine ecosystems. Our analyses of data from 142 different natural ponds, lakes, and oceans and 239 experimental ecosystems reveal a strong species-area relationship with an exponent that is invariant across ecosystems that span >15 orders of magnitude in spatial extent. A striking result is that the species-area relationship derived from small-scale experimental studies correctly scales up to natural aquatic ecosystems. These results significantly broaden our knowledge of the effects of island size on biodiversity and also confirm the relevance of experimentally derived data to the analysis and understanding of larger-scale ecological patterns. In addition, they confirm that patterns in microbial diversity are strongly consistent with those that have been repeatedly reported in the literature for macroorganisms.

Biodiversity↗
PubMed2005

Viral infection in internally structured hosts. I. Conditions for persistent infection.

For a virus population within its host, two important levels of structure can be considered: multiple cell types which can be infected, and tissue types or body compartments which may be coupled via movement. We develop a model with both types of structure. Migration between compartments can create "sources" and "sinks" within the virus population, where realized viral growth rate and abundance is lowered in some compartments compared to what would be observed in isolation. Using both analytical and numerical methods, we investigate how this within-host spatial structure affects the conditions for persistent viral infection. We find that migration between compartments makes the establishment of infection more difficult than it would be in the absence of migration, implying that within-host spatial structure combined with viral movement decreases the likelihood of viral establishment. If migration is symmetrical and compartments are heterogeneous, an increase in migration rates between compartments generally makes establishment less likely. This may help to explain the tissue specificity observed for many viruses. There are, however, important exceptions to this result. These include circumstances where the virus initially invades a compartment that is unfavorable to population growth and migration is necessary to infect other parts of the host body. Stochastic aspects of viral establishment may also favor increased migration as it tends to dampen the amplitude of fluctuations in population size during the initial transient phase of establishment.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Temporal variation can facilitate niche evolution in harsh sink environments.

We examine the impact of temporal variation on adaptive evolution in "sink" environments, where a species encounters conditions outside its niche. Sink populations persist because of recurrent immigration from sources. Prior studies have highlighted the importance of demographic constraints on adaptive evolution in sinks and revealed that adaptation is less likely in harsher sinks. We examine two complementary models of population and evolutionary dynamics in sinks: a continuous-state quantitative-genetics model and an individual-based model. In the former, genetic variance is fixed; in the latter, genetic variance varies because of mutation, drift, and sampling. In both models, a population in a constant harsh sink environment can exist in alternative states: local maladaptation (phenotype comparable to immigrants from the source) or adaptation (phenotype near the local optimum). Temporal variation permits transitions between these states. We show that moderate amounts of temporal variation can facilitate adaptive evolution in sinks, permitting niche evolution, particularly for slow or autocorrelated variation. Such patterns of temporal variation may particularly pertain to sinks caused by biotic interactions (e.g., predation). Our results are relevant to the evolutionary dynamics of species' ranges, the fate of exotic invasive species, and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases into novel hosts.

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2004

Spatial flows and the regulation of ecosystems.

Spatial flows of materials and organisms across ecosystem boundaries are ubiquitous. Understanding the consequences of these flows should be a basic goal of ecosystem science, and yet it has received scant theoretical treatment to date. Here, using a simple, open, nutrient-limited ecosystem model with trophic interactions, we explore theoretically how spatial flows affect the functioning of local ecosystems, how physical mass-balance constraints interact with biological demographic constraints in the regulation of this functioning, and how failure to consider these constraints explicitly can lead to models that are ecologically inconsistent. In particular, we show that standard prey-dependent models for trophic interactions may lead to implausible outcomes when embedded in an ecosystem context with appropriate mass flows and mass-balance constraints. Our analysis emphasizes the need for integration of population, community, and ecosystem perspectives in ecology and the critical consequences of assuming closed versus open systems.

Food Chain↗
PubMed2004

Alternative stable states and regional community structure.

Many models of local species interactions predict the occurrence of priority effects due to alternative stable equilibria (ASE). However, few empirical examples of ASE have been shown. One possible explanation for the disparity is that local ASE are difficult to maintain regionally in patch dynamic models. Here we examine two possible mechanisms for regional coexistence of species engaged in local ASE. Biotically generated heterogeneity (e.g., habitat modification that favors further invasion by conspecifics) results in regional exclusion of one species at equilibrium. In contrast, abiotic heterogeneity due to spatial variation in resource supply ratios generates local-scale ASE and ensures regional coexistence with sufficiently broad environmental gradients. Abiotic heterogeneity can result in a species that is the dominant competitor over some of its range being excluded if the area where it is dominant is too small. Biotic heterogeneity can lead to alternative stable landscapes or regional priority effects, while abiotic heterogeneity results in regional determinism. Broad environmental gradients in resource supply favor regional coexistence of species that exhibit local ASE.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Allee effects, immigration, and the evolution of species' niches.

Theoretical studies of adaptation to sink environments (with conditions outside the niche requirements of a species) have shown that immigration from source habitats can either facilitate or inhibit local adaptation. Here, we examine the influence of immigration on the evolution of local adaptation, given an Allee effect (i.e., at low densities, absolute fitness increases with population density). We consider a deterministic model for evolution at a haploid locus, and a stochastic individual-based model for evolution of a quantitative trait, and several kinds of Allee effects. We demonstrate that increased immigration can greatly facilitate adaptive evolution in the sink; with greater immigration, local population sizes rise, and because of the Allee effect, there is a positive indirect effect of immigration on local fitness. This makes it easier for alleles of modest effect to be captured by natural selection, transforming the sink into a locally adapted population that can persist without immigration.

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2003

The effects of enrichment on the dynamics of apparent competitive interactions in stage-structured systems.

In the absence of other limiting factors, assemblages in which species share a common, effective natural enemy are not expected to persist. Although a variety of mechanisms have been postulated to explain the coexistence of species that share natural enemies, the role of productivity gradients has not been explored in detail. Here, we examine how enrichment can affect the outcome of apparent competition. We develop a structured resource/consumer/natural enemy model in which the prey are exposed to attacks during a vulnerable life phase, the length of which depends on resource availability. With a single prey species, the model exhibits the "paradox of enrichment," with unstable dynamics at high levels of resource productivity. We extend this model to consider two prey species linked by a shared predator, each with their own distinct resource base. We derive invasion and stability conditions and examine how enrichment influences prey species exclusion and coexistence. Contrary to expectations from simpler, prey-dependent models, apparent competition is not necessarily strong at high productivity, and prey species coexistence may thus be more likely in enriched environments. Further, the coexistence of apparent competitors may be facilitated by unstable dynamics. These results contrast with the standard theory that apparent competition in productive environments leads to nonpersistent interactions and that coexistence of multispecies interactions is more likely under equilibrial conditions.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Linking dynamical and population genetic models of persistent viral infection.

This article develops a theoretical framework to link dynamical and population genetic models of persistent viral infection. This linkage is useful because, while the dynamical and population genetic theories have developed independently, the biological processes they describe are completely interrelated. Parameters of the dynamical models are important determinants of evolutionary processes such as natural selection and genetic drift. We develop analytical methods, based on coupled differential equations and Markov chain theory, to predict the accumulation of genetic diversity within the viral population as a function of dynamical parameters. These methods are first applied to the standard model of viral dynamics and then generalized to consider the infection of multiple host cell types by the viral population. Each cell type is characterized by specific parameter values. Inclusion of multiple cell types increases the likelihood of persistent infection and can increase the amount of genetic diversity within the viral population. However, the overall rate of gene sequence evolution may actually be reduced.

Biological Evolution↗
PubMed2003

Dynamics and responses to mortality rates of competing predators undergoing predator-prey cycles.

Two or more competing predators can coexist using a single homogeneous prey species if the system containing all three undergoes internally generated fluctuations in density. However, the dynamics of species that coexist via this mechanism have not been extensively explored. Here, we examine both the nature of the dynamics and the responses of the mean densities of each predator to mortality imposed upon it or its competitor. The analysis of dynamics uncovers several previously undescribed behaviors for this model, including chaotic fluctuations, and long-term transients that differ significantly from the ultimate patterns of fluctuations. The limiting dynamics of the system can be loosely classified as synchronous cycles, asynchronous cycles, and chaotic dynamics. Synchronous cycles are simple limit cycles with highly positively correlated densities of the two predator species. Asynchronous cycles are limit cycles, frequently of complex form, including a significant period during which prey density is nearly constant while one predator gradually, monotonically replaces the other. Chaotic dynamics are aperiodic and generally have intermediate correlations between predator densities. Continuous changes in density-independent mortality rates often lead to abrupt transitions in mean population sizes, and increases in the mortality rate of one predator may decrease the population size of the competing predator. Similarly, increases in the immigration rate of one predator may decrease its own density and increase the density of the other predator. Proportional changes in one predator's birth and death rate functions can have significant effects on the dynamics and mean densities of both predator species. All of these responses to environmental change differ from those observed when competitors coexist stably as the result of resource (prey) partitioning. The patterns described here occur in many other competition models in which there are cycles and differences in the linearity of the responses of consumers to their resources.

Animals↗