Robert Wayne Levenson | PubMed Health

PubMed2002

A two-factor model for predicting when a couple will divorce: exploratory analyses using 14-year longitudinal data.

This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to "predict" the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called "neutral affective style," and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Generating hypotheses after 14 years of marital followup; or, how should one speculate? A reply to DeKay, Greeno, and Houck.

Gottman and Levenson (2002) for the purpose of post hoc speculation, developed a number of ordinary least squares regressions to model the length of marriage of divorcing couples in a 14-year longitudinal study. We believe that our analyses are appropriate for our purpose. We do not agree with DeKay, Greeno, and Houck (2002) that a duration-model approach would have been more appropriate, and instead argue that the analyses used are more powerful and generate more interesting speculations. When speculating, one makes an important contribution just by being interesting, not necessarily by being right. The purpose of post hoc speculation is to generate discussion, and we are pleased that even at the outset we have accomplished this goal. In this reply to DeKay et al., we argue that the two-process model for earlier versus later divorcing that we propose is both interesting and clinically useful.

Divorce↗