Biomedical subjects

Roberto Rosà

Publications and source records attributed to Roberto Rosà.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Effects of tick population dynamics and host densities on the persistence of tick-borne infections.

The transmission and the persistence of tick-borne infections are strongly influenced by the densities and the structure of host populations. By extending previous models and analysis, in this paper we analyse how the persistence of ticks and pathogens, is affected by the dynamics of tick populations, and by their host densities. The effect of host densities on infection persistence is explored through the analysis and simulation of a series of models that include different assumptions on tick-host dynamics and consider different routes of infection transmission. Ticks are assumed to feed on two types of host species which vary in their reservoir competence. Too low densities of competent hosts (i.e., hosts where transmission can occur) do not sustain the infection cycle, while too high densities of incompetent hosts may dilute the competent hosts so much to make infection persistence impossible. A dilution effect may occur also for competent hosts as a consequence of reduced tick to host ratio; this is possible only if the regulation of tick populations is such that tick density does not increase linearly with host densities.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2003

Thresholds for disease persistence in models for tick-borne infections including non-viraemic transmission, extended feeding and tick aggregation.

Lyme disease and Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) are two emergent tick-borne diseases transmitted by the widely distributed European tick Ixodes ricinus. The life cycle of the vector and the number of hosts involved requires the development of complex models which consider different routes of pathogen transmission including those occurring between ticks that co-feed on the same host. Hence, we consider here a general model for tick-borne infections. We assumed ticks feed on two types of host species, one competent for viraemic transmission of infection, the second incompetent but included a third transmission route through non-viraemic transmission between ticks co-feeding on the same host. Since a blood meal lasts for several days these routes could lead to interesting nonlinearities in transmission rates, which may have important effects.We derive an explicit formula for the threshold for disease persistence in the case of viraemic transmission, also for the case of viraemic and non-viraemic transmission. From this formula, the effect of parameters on the persistence of infection can be determined. When only viraemic transmission occurs, we confirm that, while the density of the competent host has always a positive effect on infection persistence, the density of the incompetent host may have either a positive effect, by amplifying tick population, or a negative ("dilution") effect, by wasting tick bites on an incompetent host. With non-viraemic transmission, the "dilution" effect becomes less relevant. On the other hand, if the nonlinearity due to extended feeding is included, the dilution effect always occurs, but often at unrealistically high host densities. Finally, we incorporated the effects of tick aggregation on the hosts and correlation of tick stages and found that both had an important effect on infection persistence, if non-viraemic transmission occurred.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Individual-based vs deterministic models for macroparasites: host cycles and extinction.

Our understanding of the qualitative dynamics of host-macroparasite systems is mainly based on deterministic models. We study here an individual-based stochastic model that incorporates the same assumptions as the classical deterministic model. Stochastic simulations, using parameter values based on some case studies, preserve many features of the deterministic model, like the average value of the variables and the approximate length of the cycles. An important difference is that, even when deterministic models yield damped oscillations, stochastic simulations yield apparently sustained oscillations. The amplitude of such oscillations may be so large to threaten parasites' persistence.With density-dependence in parasite demographic traits, persistence increases somewhat. Allowing instead for infections from an external parasite reservoir, we found that host extinction may easily occur. However, the extinction probability is almost independent of the level of external infection over a wide intermediate parameter region.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Aggregation, stability, and oscillations in different models for host-macroparasite interactions.

Aggregation is generally recognized as an important factor in the dynamics of host-macroparasite interactions and it has been found relevant in stabilizing the dynamics toward an equilibrium coexistence. In this paper we review the models of Anderson and May (1978, J. Anim. Ecol. 47, 219-247, 249-267) and compare them with some more recently developed models, which incorporate explicit mechanisms (multiple infections or host heterogeneity) for generating aggregation and different degrees of mathematical accuracy. We found that the stabilization yielded by aggregation depends strongly on the mechanism producing the aggregation: multiple infections are much less stabilizing than when aggregation is assumed to be fixed from the outside, while the opposite holds for host heterogeneity. We also give analytical estimates of the period of oscillations occurring when the equilibrium is unstable. Finally, we explore in these models the role of aggregation in host regulation and in determining a threshold value for parasite establishment.

Animals↗