Biomedical subjects

Robin Kinsman

Publications and source records attributed to Robin Kinsman.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Total arterial revascularization is safe: multicenter ten-year analysis of 71,470 coronary procedures.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to assess the use of arterial revascularization and to compare the in-hospital mortality with other CABG grafting strategies. METHODS: A total of 71,470 CABG patients (1992-2001) in 27 centers in the United Kingdom were studied. The proportion of patients with arterial revascularization was compared. In-hospital mortality was compared for various grafting strategies: all-arterial (n = 5,401), all non-all-arterial patients (n = 66,069), one artery any number of veins (n = 49,801). The groups were compared for in-hospital mortality using multivariate logistic regression to assess the independent effect of the grafting strategies on mortality; logistic EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was compared to actual mortality, and all arterial and one artery and veins patients were compared with propensity score analysis. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in the proportion of all-arterial patients over time (3.2% to 11.7%, p < 0.001) with evidence of variability across centers. Crude mortality for all-arterial patients was 2% vs 3% for all non-all-arterial patients (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, all-arterial was associated with a slight but insignificant increase in in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.13; [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.86-1.48], p = 0.36). There was a trend toward higher mortality in the all-arterial group when compared with the one artery and veins group (OR 1.19 [95% CI 0.91-1.56], p = 0.10). The one artery and veins group was the only group where actual mortality was significantly lower than predicted by EuroSCORE (p < 0.001). In propensity analysis the mortality was 1.51% for one artery and veins and 1.74% of all-arterial patients (p = 0.56). CONCLUSIONS: The use of arterial grafting has increased over time, varies by center, and appears to be safe in terms of in-hospital mortality.

Aged↗

PubMed2005

Generic, simple risk stratification model for heart valve surgery.

BACKGROUND: Heart valve surgery has an associated in-hospital mortality rate of 4% to 8%. This study aims to develop a simple risk model to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing heart valve surgery to provide information to patients and clinicians and to facilitate institutional comparisons. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on 32,839 patients were obtained from the Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland on patients who underwent heart valve surgery between April 1995 and March 2003. Data from the first 5 years (n=16,679) were used to develop the model; its performance was evaluated on the remaining data (n=16,160). The risk model presented here is based on the combined data. The overall in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. The risk model included, in order of importance (all P<0.01), operative priority, age, renal failure, operation sequence, ejection fraction, concomitant tricuspid valve surgery, type of valve operation, concomitant CABG surgery, body mass index, preoperative arrhythmias, diabetes, gender, and hypertension. The risk model exhibited good predictive ability (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P=0.78) and discriminated between high- and low-risk patients reasonably well (receiver-operating characteristics curve area, 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first risk model that predicts in-hospital mortality for aortic and/or mitral heart valve patients with or without concomitant CABG. Based on a large national database of heart valve patients, this model has been evaluated successfully on patients who had valve surgery during a subsequent time period. It is simple to use, includes routinely collected variables, and provides a useful tool for patient advice and institutional comparisons.

Cardiac Surgical Procedures↗

PubMed2004

The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland study of large bowel obstruction caused by colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to investigate the early outcomes after surgical treatment of malignant large bowel obstruction (MBO) and to identify risk factors affecting operative mortality. METHODS: Data were prospectively collected from 1046 patients with MBO by 294 surgeons in 148 UK hospitals during a 12-month period from April 1998. A predictive model of in-hospital mortality was developed using a 3-level Bayesian logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The median age of patients was 73 years (interquartile range 64-80). Of the 989 patients having surgery, 91.7% underwent bowel resection with an overall mortality of 15.7%. The multilevel model used the following independent risk factors to predict mortality: age (odds ratio [OR] 1.85 per 10 year increase), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (OR for American Society of Anesthesiologists grade I versus II,III,IV-V = 3.3,11.7,22.2), Dukes' staging (OR for Dukes' A versus B,C,D = 2.0, 2.1, 6.0), and mode of surgery (OR for scheduled versus urgent, emergency = 1.6, 2.3). A significant interhospital variability in operative mortality was evident with increasing age (variance = 0.004, SE = 0.001, P < 0.001). No detectable caseload effect was demonstrated between specialist colorectal and other general surgeons. CONCLUSIONS: Using prognostic models, it was possible to develop a risk-stratification index that accurately predicted survival in patients presenting with malignant large bowel obstruction. The methodology and model for risk adjusted survival can set the reference point for more accurate and reliable comparative analysis and be used as an adjunct to the process of informed consent.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio tests: applications to Bristol, Shipman and adult cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the use of the risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio test in monitoring the cumulative occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of three longitudinal datasets. SUBJECTS: Patients aged 65 years and over under the care of Harold Shipman between 1979 and 1997, patients under 1 year of age undergoing paediatric heart surgery in Bristol Royal Infirmary between 1984 and 1995, adult patients receiving cardiac surgery from a team of cardiac surgeons in London,UK. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Annual and 30-day mortality rates. RESULTS: Using reasonable boundaries, the procedure could have indicated an 'alarm' in Bristol after publication of the 1991 Cardiac Surgical Register, and in 1985 or 1997 for Harold Shipman depending on the data source and the comparator. The cardiac surgeons showed no significant deviation from expected performance. CONCLUSIONS: The risk-adjusted sequential probability test is simple to implement, can be applied in a variety of contexts, and might have been useful to detect specific instances of past divergent performance. The use of this and related techniques deserves further attention in the context of prospectively monitoring adverse clinical outcomes.

Adult↗