Biomedical subjects

Roland R Regoes

Publications and source records attributed to Roland R Regoes.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

How do pathogen evolution and host heterogeneity interact in disease emergence?

Heterogeneity in the parameters governing the spread of infectious diseases is a common feature of real-world epidemics. It has been suggested that for pathogens with basic reproductive number R(0)>1, increasing heterogeneity makes extinction of disease more likely during the early rounds of transmission. The basic reproductive number R(0) of the introduced pathogen may, however, be less than 1 after the introduction, and evolutionary changes are then required for R(0) to increase to above 1 and the pathogen to emerge. In this paper, we consider how host heterogeneity influences the emergence of both non-evolving pathogens and those that must undergo adaptive changes to spread in the host population. In contrast to previous results, we find that heterogeneity does not always make extinction more likely and that if adaptation is required for emergence, the effect of host heterogeneity is relatively small. We discuss the application of these ideas to vaccination strategies.

Adaptation, Biological↗

PubMed2006

Pharmacodynamics of non-replicating viruses, bacteriocins and lysins.

The pharmacodynamics of antibiotics and many other chemotherapeutic agents is often governed by a 'multi-hit' kinetics, which requires the binding of several molecules of the therapeutic agent for the killing of their targets. In contrast, the pharmacodynamics of novel alternative therapeutic agents, such as phages and bacteriocins against bacterial infections or viruses engineered to target tumour cells, is governed by a 'single-hit' kinetics according to which the agent will kill once it is bound to its target. In addition to requiring only a single molecule for killing, these agents bind irreversibly to their targets. Here, we explore the pharmacodynamics of such 'irreversible, single-hit inhibitors' using mathematical models. We focus on agents that do not replicate, i.e. in the case of phage therapy, we deal only with non-lytic phages and in the case of cancer treatment, we restrict our analysis to replication of incompetent viruses. We study the impact of adsorption on dead cells, heterogeneity in adsorption rates and spatial compartmentalization.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗

PubMed2006

Modelling cytomegalovirus replication patterns in the human host: factors important for pathogenesis.

Human cytomegalovirus can cause a diverse range of diseases in different immunocompromised hosts. The pathogenic mechanisms underlying these diseases have not been fully elucidated, though the maximal viral load during infection is strongly correlated with the disease. However, concentrating on single viral load measures during infection ignores valuable information contained during the entire replication history up to the onset of disease. We use a statistical model that allows all viral load data sampled during infection to be analysed, and have applied it to four immunocompromised groups exhibiting five distinct cytomegalovirus-related diseases. The results show that for all diseases, peaks in viral load contribute less to disease progression than phases of low virus load with equal amount of viral turnover. The model accurately predicted the time of disease onset for fever, gastrointestinal disease and pneumonitis but not for hepatitis and retinitis, implying that other factors may be involved in the pathology of these diseases.

Cytomegalovirus↗

PubMed2006

Emergence of drug-resistant influenza virus: population dynamical considerations.

Given the considerable challenges to the rapid development of an effective vaccine against influenza, antiviral agents will play an important role as a first-line defense if a new pandemic occurs. The large-scale use of drugs for chemoprophylaxis and treatment will impose strong selection for the evolution of drug-resistant strains. The ensuing transmission of those strains could substantially limit the effectiveness of the drugs as a first-line defense. Summarizing recent data on the rate at which the treatment of influenza infection generates resistance de novo and on the transmission fitness of resistant virus, we discuss possible implications for the epidemiological spread of drug resistance in the context of an established population dynamic model.

Acetamides↗

PubMed2006

The role of compensatory mutations in the emergence of drug resistance.

Pathogens that evolve resistance to drugs usually have reduced fitness. However, mutations that largely compensate for this reduction in fitness often arise. We investigate how these compensatory mutations affect population-wide resistance emergence as a function of drug treatment. Using a model of gonorrhea transmission dynamics, we obtain generally applicable, qualitative results that show how compensatory mutations lead to more likely and faster resistance emergence. We further show that resistance emergence depends on the level of drug use in a strongly nonlinear fashion. We also discuss what data need to be obtained to allow future quantitative predictions of resistance emergence.

Computational Biology↗

PubMed2005

Preclinical assessment of HIV vaccines and microbicides by repeated low-dose virus challenges.

BACKGROUND: Trials in macaque models play an essential role in the evaluation of biomedical interventions that aim to prevent HIV infection, such as vaccines, microbicides, and systemic chemoprophylaxis. These trials are usually conducted with very high virus challenge doses that result in infection with certainty. However, these high challenge doses do not realistically reflect the low probability of HIV transmission in humans, and thus may rule out preventive interventions that could protect against "real life" exposures. The belief that experiments involving realistically low challenge doses require large numbers of animals has so far prevented the development of alternatives to using high challenge doses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using statistical power analysis, we investigate how many animals would be needed to conduct preclinical trials using low virus challenge doses. We show that experimental designs in which animals are repeatedly challenged with low doses do not require unfeasibly large numbers of animals to assess vaccine or microbicide success. CONCLUSION: Preclinical trials using repeated low-dose challenges represent a promising alternative approach to identify potential preventive interventions.

AIDS Vaccines↗

PubMed2005

Optimal replication of poliovirus within cells.

We construct a mathematical model of the within-cell replication of poliovirus, a prototypic RNA virus, and use realistic parameter estimates to describe the increase of copy number of the viral genome. Our initial model is essentially an exponential growth model; we also consider modifications of this model to account for resource utilization. The saturation of viral replication dynamics observed in experimental systems can be explained in terms of heavy resource use by the virus. We then use our models to consider the conditions under which the growth of poliovirus is optimized. Intriguingly, if poliovirus has optimized its replication within cells, the predicted ratio of positive to negative strands is close to what is actually observed. We interpret our findings in terms of the evolution of life-history traits.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

The HIV coreceptor switch: a population dynamical perspective.

Over the course of infection, the coreceptor usage of the HIV virus changes from a preference for CCR5 to a preference for CXCR4 in approximately 50% of infected individuals. The change in coreceptor usage is the result of the complex interaction of the viral population with various cell populations of the immune system. Although many of the molecular processes involved in viral attachment and entry have been resolved, the population dynamical mechanisms leading to the emergence of CXCR4-using HIV variants in some infected individuals are not yet understood. Here, we review various hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the change of HIV coreceptor usage in the course of infection, and conclude that any corroboration or rejection of these hypotheses requires a quantitative analysis of the interaction between the virus and immune cells.

Disease Progression↗

PubMed2004

Pharmacodynamic functions: a multiparameter approach to the design of antibiotic treatment regimens.

There is a complex quantitative relationship between the concentrations of antibiotics and the growth and death rates of bacteria. Despite this complexity, in most cases only a single pharmacodynamic parameter, the MIC of the drug, is employed for the rational development of antibiotic treatment regimens. In this report, we use a mathematical model based on a Hill function-which we call the pharmacodynamic function and which is related to previously published E(max) models-to describe the relationship between the bacterial net growth rates and the concentrations of antibiotics of five different classes: ampicillin, ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, streptomycin, and rifampin. Using Escherichia coli O18:K1:H7, we illustrate how precise estimates of the four parameters of the pharmacodynamic function can be obtained from in vitro time-kill data. We show that, in addition to their respective MICs, these antibiotics differ in the values of the other pharmacodynamic parameters. Using a computer simulation of antibiotic treatment in vivo, we demonstrate that, as a consequence of differences in pharmacodynamic parameters, such as the steepness of the Hill function and the minimum bacterial net growth rate attained at high antibiotic concentrations, there can be profound differences in the microbiological efficacy of antibiotics with identical MICs. We discuss the clinical implications and limitations of these results.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2004

Roles of target cells and virus-specific cellular immunity in primary simian immunodeficiency virus infection.

There is an ongoing debate on whether acute human immunodeficiency virus infection is controlled by target cell limitation or by virus-specific cellular immunity. To resolve this question, we developed a novel mathematical modeling scheme which allows us to incorporate measurements of virus load, target cells, and virus-specific immunity and applied it to a comprehensive data set generated in an experiment involving rhesus macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus. Half of the macaques studied were treated during the primary infection period with reagents which block T-cell costimulation and as a result displayed severely impaired virus-specific immune responses. Our results show that early viral replication in normal infection is controlled to a large extent by virus-specific CD8(+) T cells and not by target cell limitation.

Abatacept↗

PubMed2003

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases.

It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R(0), should exceed one, where R(0) is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population. However, an increase in R(0), even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R(0) > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Dose-dependent infection rates of parasites produce the Allee effect in epidemiology.

In many epidemiological models of microparasitic infections it is assumed that the infection process is governed by the mass-action principle, i.e. that the infection rate per host and per parasite is a constant. Furthermore, the parasite-induced host mortality (parasite virulence) and the reproduction rate of the parasite are often assumed to be independent of the infecting parasite dose. However, there is empirical evidence against those three assumptions: the infection rate per host is often found to be a sigmoidal rather than a linear function of the parasite dose to which it is exposed; and the lifespan of infected hosts as well as the reproduction rate of the parasite are often negatively correlated with the parasite dose. Here, we incorporate dose dependences into the standard modelling framework for microparasitic infections, and draw conclusions on the resulting dynamics. Our model displays an Allee effect that is characterized by an invasion threshold for the parasite. Furthermore, in contrast to standard epidemiological models a parasite strain needs to have a basic reproductive rate that is substantially greater than 1 to establish an infection. Thus, the conditions for successful invasion of the parasite are more restrictive than in mass-action infection models. The analysis further suggests that negative correlations of the parasite dose with host lifespan and the parasite reproduction rate helps the parasite to overcome the invasion constraints of the Allee-type dynamics.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Contribution of peaks of virus load to simian immunodeficiency virus pathogenesis.

The mechanisms causing AIDS and subsequently death in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection are not yet fully understood. Nonetheless, correlates of accelerated progression to disease based on immunological and virological markers have been identified. The best correlate identified to date is the baseline virus load or the so-called viral set point. By focusing on a virus load measurement from a restricted time range, however, we ignore valuable information contained in the long-term profile of the virus load. Here, we investigate the relationship between virus load and survival with the aid of a statistical model. The model takes into consideration the virus load at every stage of the disease. In particular, we aim to determine the effect of peaks of virus load on disease progression. We fit our model to unique sequential viral load data of 12 simian immunodeficiency virus mac251-infected rhesus macaques which contain frequent measurements throughout the entire course of the infection until the development of simian AIDS. Our model enables us to predict the survival times of the animals more accurately than an equivalent model which considers the viral set point only. Furthermore, we find that peaks of the virus load contribute less to disease progression than phases of low virus load with the same amount of viral turnover. Our analysis implies that the total viral turnover is not the best correlate of survival. As a consequence, the direct cytopathic effects of virus replication may, by themselves, have less of an impact on disease progression than previously thought.

Animals↗