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Biomedical subjects

Rustom Antia

Publications and source records attributed to Rustom Antia.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

How do pathogen evolution and host heterogeneity interact in disease emergence?

Heterogeneity in the parameters governing the spread of infectious diseases is a common feature of real-world epidemics. It has been suggested that for pathogens with basic reproductive number R(0)>1, increasing heterogeneity makes extinction of disease more likely during the early rounds of transmission. The basic reproductive number R(0) of the introduced pathogen may, however, be less than 1 after the introduction, and evolutionary changes are then required for R(0) to increase to above 1 and the pathogen to emerge. In this paper, we consider how host heterogeneity influences the emergence of both non-evolving pathogens and those that must undergo adaptive changes to spread in the host population. In contrast to previous results, we find that heterogeneity does not always make extinction more likely and that if adaptation is required for emergence, the effect of host heterogeneity is relatively small. We discuss the application of these ideas to vaccination strategies.

Adaptation, Biological↗
PubMed2006

How does cross-reactive stimulation affect the longevity of CD8+ T cell memory?

Immunological memory--the ability to "remember" previously encountered pathogens and respond faster upon re-exposure is a central feature of the immune response in vertebrates. The cross-reactive stimulation hypothesis for the maintenance of memory proposes that memory cells specific for a given pathogen are maintained by cross-reactive stimulation following infections with other (unrelated) pathogens. We use mathematical models to examine the cross-reactive stimulation hypothesis. We find that: (i) the direct boosting of cross-reactive lineages only provides a very small increase in the average longevity of immunological memory; (ii) the expansion of cross-reactive lineages can indirectly increase the longevity of memory by reducing the magnitude of expansion of new naive lineages which occupy space in the memory compartment and are responsible for the decline in memory; (iii) cross-reactive stimulation results in variation in the rates of decline of different lineages of memory cells and enrichment of memory cell population for cells that are cross-reactive for the pathogens to which the individual has been exposed.

Animals↗
PubMed2006

The role of compensatory mutations in the emergence of drug resistance.

Pathogens that evolve resistance to drugs usually have reduced fitness. However, mutations that largely compensate for this reduction in fitness often arise. We investigate how these compensatory mutations affect population-wide resistance emergence as a function of drug treatment. Using a model of gonorrhea transmission dynamics, we obtain generally applicable, qualitative results that show how compensatory mutations lead to more likely and faster resistance emergence. We further show that resistance emergence depends on the level of drug use in a strongly nonlinear fashion. We also discuss what data need to be obtained to allow future quantitative predictions of resistance emergence.

Computational Biology↗
PubMed2006

Imperfect vaccines and the evolution of pathogens causing acute infections in vertebrates.

A study by Gandon et al. (2001) considered the potential ways pathogens may evolve in response to vaccination with imperfect vaccines. In this paper, by focusing on acute infections of vertebrate hosts, we examine whether imperfect vaccines that do not completely block a pathogen's replication (antigrowth) or transmission (antitransmission) may lead to evolution of more or less virulent pathogen strains. To address this question, we use models of the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and the host's immune responses. One advantage of the use of this within-host approach is that vaccination can be easily incorporated in the models and the trade-offs between pathogen transmissibility, host recovery, and virulence that drive evolution of pathogens in these models can be easily estimated. We find that the use of either antigrowth or antitransmission vaccines leads to the evolution of pathogens with an increased within-host growth rate; infection of unvaccinated hosts with such evolved pathogens results in high host mortality and low pathogen transmission. Vaccination of only a fraction of hosts with antigrowth vaccines may prevent pathogens from evolving high virulence due to pathogen adaptation to unvaccinated hosts and thus protection of vaccinated hosts from pathogen-induced disease. In contrast, antitransmission vaccines may be beneficial only if they are effective enough to cause pathogen extinction. Our results suggest that particular mechanisms of action of vaccines and their efficacy are crucial in predicting longterm evolutionary consequences of the use of imperfect vaccines.

Animal Diseases↗
PubMed2005

How do adaptive immune systems control pathogens while avoiding autoimmunity?

Immune systems face a daunting control challenge. On the one hand, they need to minimize damage from pathogens, without wasting energy and resources, but on the other must avoid initiating or perpetuating autoimmune responses. Finally, because pathogens interfere with immune function, immune systems must be robust against sabotage. We describe here how these challenges are met by two immune systems, the intracellular RNA interference system and the vertebrate CD8 T-cell response. We extrapolate from these two systems to propose principles for strategically robust control.

Adaptation, Physiological↗
PubMed2005

Pathology during acute infections: contributions of intracellular pathogens and the CTL response.

Previous work has shown how, in the case of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) responses to persistent viral infections, pathology may arise as a consequence of cell destruction directly by the virus or indirectly due to the CTL response, leading to maximum pathology at intermediate efficacy of the immune response. We expand these studies to consider pathology arising during acute infections with intracellular pathogens controlled by the CTL response. We show that, in contrast to persistent infections, pathology during acute infections is minimized with increasing efficacy of the immune response. The implications of these results for vaccination are discussed.

Humans↗
PubMed2005

Optimal replication of poliovirus within cells.

We construct a mathematical model of the within-cell replication of poliovirus, a prototypic RNA virus, and use realistic parameter estimates to describe the increase of copy number of the viral genome. Our initial model is essentially an exponential growth model; we also consider modifications of this model to account for resource utilization. The saturation of viral replication dynamics observed in experimental systems can be explained in terms of heavy resource use by the virus. We then use our models to consider the conditions under which the growth of poliovirus is optimized. Intriguingly, if poliovirus has optimized its replication within cells, the predicted ratio of positive to negative strands is close to what is actually observed. We interpret our findings in terms of the evolution of life-history traits.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Quantifying cell turnover using CFSE data.

The CFSE dye dilution assay is widely used to determine the number of divisions a given CFSE labelled cell has undergone in vitro and in vivo. In this paper, we consider how the data obtained with the use of CFSE (CFSE data) can be used to estimate the parameters determining cell division and death. For a homogeneous cell population (i.e., a population with the parameters for cell division and death being independent of time and the number of divisions cells have undergone), we consider a specific biologically based "Smith-Martin" model of cell turnover and analyze three different techniques for estimation of its parameters: direct fitting, indirect fitting and rescaling method. We find that using only CFSE data, the duration of the division phase (i.e., approximately the S+G2+M phase of the cell cycle) can be estimated with the use of either technique. In some cases, the average division or cell cycle time can be estimated using the direct fitting of the model solution to the data or by using the Gett-Hodgkin method [Gett A. and Hodgkin, P. 2000. A cellular calculus for signal integration by T cells. Nat. Immunol. 1:239-244]. Estimation of the death rates during commitment to division (i.e., approximately the G1 phase of the cell cycle) and during the division phase may not be feasible with the use of only CFSE data. We propose that measuring an additional parameter, the fraction of cells in division, may allow estimation of all model parameters including the death rates during different stages of the cell cycle.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2005

Emerging pathogens: the epidemiology and evolution of species jumps.

Novel pathogens continue to emerge in human, domestic animal, wildlife and plant populations, yet the population dynamics of this kind of biological invasion remain poorly understood. Here, we consider the epidemiological and evolutionary processes underlying the initial introduction and subsequent spread of a pathogen in a new host population, with special reference to pathogens that originate by jumping from one host species to another. We conclude that, although pathogen emergence is inherently unpredictable, emerging pathogens tend to share some common traits, and that directly transmitted RNA viruses might be the pathogens that are most likely to jump between host species.

Journal Article↗
PubMed2005

The role of models in understanding CD8+ T-cell memory.

Immunological memory - the ability to 'remember' previously encountered pathogens and respond faster on re-exposure - is a central feature of the immune response of vertebrates. We outline how mathematical models have contributed to our understanding of CD8(+) T-cell memory. Together with experimental data, models have helped to quantitatively describe and to further our understanding of both the generation of memory after infection with a pathogen and the maintenance of this memory throughout the life of an individual.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Roles of target cells and virus-specific cellular immunity in primary simian immunodeficiency virus infection.

There is an ongoing debate on whether acute human immunodeficiency virus infection is controlled by target cell limitation or by virus-specific cellular immunity. To resolve this question, we developed a novel mathematical modeling scheme which allows us to incorporate measurements of virus load, target cells, and virus-specific immunity and applied it to a comprehensive data set generated in an experiment involving rhesus macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus. Half of the macaques studied were treated during the primary infection period with reagents which block T-cell costimulation and as a result displayed severely impaired virus-specific immune responses. Our results show that early viral replication in normal infection is controlled to a large extent by virus-specific CD8(+) T cells and not by target cell limitation.

Abatacept↗
PubMed2003

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases.

It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R(0), should exceed one, where R(0) is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population. However, an increase in R(0), even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R(0) > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

The rescaling method for quantifying the turnover of cell populations.

The dynamic nature of immune responses requires the development of appropriate experimental and theoretical tools to quantitatively estimate the division and death rates which determine the turnover of immune cells. A number of papers have used experimental data from BrdU and D-glucose labels together with a simple random birth-death model to quantify the turnover of immune cells focusing on HIV/SIV infections [Mohri et al. 279 (1998) 1223-1227, Hellerstein et al. 5 (1999) 83-89, Bonhoeffer et al. 164 (2000) 5049-5054, Mohri et al. 87 (2001) 1277-1287]. We show how uncertainties in the assumptions of the random birth-death model may lead to substantial errors in the parameters estimated. We then show how more accurate estimates can be obtained from the more recent CFSE data which allow to track the number of divisions each cell has undergone. Specifically, we: (i) describe a general stage-structured model of cell division where the probabilities of division and death are functions of time since the previous division; (ii) develop a rescaling method to identify invariant parameters (i.e. the ones that are independent of the specific functions describing division and death); (iii) show how these invariant parameters can be estimated, and (iv) illustrate this technique by applying it to CFSE data taken from the literature.

Adoptive Transfer↗
PubMed2003

Mathematical models of RNA silencing: unidirectional amplification limits accidental self-directed reactions.

RNA silencing, found broadly throughout the eukaryotes, posttranscriptionally suppresses the expression of "aberrant" genes including those of many viruses and transposons. Similar to the specific immune system of vertebrates, RNA silencing works by generating specific responses against foreign elements and rapidly amplifying these responses to clear or otherwise inactivate the threat. Also like the vertebrate immune system, RNA-silencing systems risk making mistakes and mounting undesirable responses against the self. We develop a set of mathematical models of RNA silencing. We show that current models of RNA silencing do little to explain what prevents mistaken reactions from silencing vital organismal genes. We extend the basic models to show that the presumed unidirectional nature of the amplification process (namely, unidirectional RNA-directed RNA polymerase-mediated synthesis of secondary double-stranded RNA as observed in Caenorhabditis elegans) serves as a "safety mechanism" that safeguards against accidental generation of damaging self-directed reactions.

DNA Transposable Elements↗
PubMed2003

Models of CD8+ responses: 1. What is the antigen-independent proliferation program.

Recent experimental results show that even brief stimulation with antigen can cause antigen-specific CD8 T-cells to undergo sustained proliferation followed by differentiation into memory cells. These results show that the dynamics of these immune responses are not governed by constant monitoring of antigen levels, but rather that following stimulation immune cells commit to a "program". At present relatively little is known about the program which governs CD8 cell proliferation and differentiation. For example, we do not know whether the program is completely specified by the initial encounter of a T cell with antigen, or whether it subsequently can be modified by the amount of antigen present. Nor do we know whether the entire program for T cell proliferation and differentiation resides within the T cell itself, or whether some component(s) of the program are determined by cells or molecules external to the CD8 cell. In this paper we construct simple mathematical models which incorporate antigen-independent proliferation and differentiation of CD8 cells during acute infections. We use these models to determine what characteristics the program must have in order to be consistent with the existing data on the dynamics of CD8 responses, and in particular to answer the questions posed above. Our results suggest that the program is not completely defined by the initial encounter of T cell with antigen but may be augmented by exposure to antigen in a brief window shortly after infection; furthermore, parts of the program may reside external to the T-cells. Finally we examine some of the consequences of the "program" for pathogen-host coevolution.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Lineage relationship and protective immunity of memory CD8 T cell subsets.

Memory CD8 T cells can be divided into two subsets, central (T(CM)) and effector (T(EM)), but their lineage relationships and their ability to persist and confer protective immunity are not well understood. Our results show that T(CM) have a greater capacity than T(EM) to persist in vivo and are more efficient in mediating protective immunity because of their increased proliferative potential. We also demonstrate that, following antigen clearance, T(EM) convert to T(CM) and that the duration of this differentiation is programmed within the first week after immunization. We propose that T(CM) and T(EM) do not necessarily represent distinct subsets, but are part of a continuum in a linear naive --> effector --> T(EM) --> T(CM) differentiation pathway.

Animals↗