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Biomedical subjects

S Blower

Publications and source records attributed to S Blower.

16 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2001

The continuing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men.

OBJECTIVES: This study characterized the AIDS epidemic among urban men who have sex with men (MSM). METHODS: A probability sample of MSM was obtained in 1997 (n = 2881; 18 years and older) from New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Francisco, and HIV status was determined through self-report and biological measures. RESULTS: HIV prevalence was 17% (95% confidence interval = 15%, 19%) overall, with extremely high levels in African Americans (29%), MSM who used injection drugs (40%), "ultraheavy" noninjection drug users (32%), and less educated men (< high school, 37%). City-level HIV differences were non-significant once these other factors were controlled for. In comparing the present findings with historical data based on public records and modeling, HIV prevalence appears to have declined as a result of high mortality (69%) and stable, but high, incidence rates (1%-2%). CONCLUSIONS: Although the findings suggest that HIV prevalence has declined significantly from the mid-1980s, current levels among urban MSM in the United States approximate those of sub-Saharan countries (e.g., 14%-25%) and are extremely high in many population subsegments. Despite years of progress, the AIDS epidemic continues unabated among subsegments of the MSM community.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Global elimination of trachoma: how frequently should we administer mass chemotherapy?

The World Health Organization has recommended repeat mass drug administration as part of their global initiative to eliminate blinding trachoma by the year 2020. The efficacy of repeat treatment will be tested empirically, but the results will not be available for many years, and recommendations for the necessary frequency of treatment are needed immediately. We have developed a mathematical model that uses available epidemiological data from a variety of countries. We recommend, based on our analysis, that in areas where trachoma is moderately prevalent (<35% in children), it should be treated annually, but hyperendemic areas (>50% in children), it should be treated biannually.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗
PubMed1997

Leprosy and tuberculosis: the epidemiological consequences of cross-immunity.

OBJECTIVES: This study tested the hypothesis, first proposed by Chaussinand, that individual-level immunity acquired from exposure to tuberculosis may have contributed to the disappearance of leprosy from western Europe. METHODS: The epidemiological consequences of cross-immunity were assessed by the formulation of a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis and leprosy. RESULTS: The conditions under which Mycobacterium tuberculosis could have eradicated Mycobacterium leprae were derived in terms of the basic reproductive rates of the two infections and the degree of cross-immunity. CONCLUSIONS: If the degree of cross-immunity between two diseases within an individual is known, then the epidemiological consequences of this cross-immunity can be assessed with transmission modeling. The results of this analysis, in combination with previous estimates of the basic reproductive rate of tuberculosis and degree of cross-immunity, imply that tuberculosis could have contributed to the decline of leprosy if the basic reproductive rate of leprosy was low.

Cause of Death↗
PubMed1992

Epidemiology, HIV and drugs: mathematical models and data.

The utility of mathematical models in understanding the dynamics of HIV transmission among injecting drug users (IDUs) and their non-IDU sex partners is discussed. We emphasize the need for collaborative relationships between modellers and drug-use researchers, and we stress that models should be based on data in both their formulation and development stages. We outline some of the possible data requirements of transmission models and we highlight the need for the collection of appropriate quantitative data, so that modellers can estimate specific parameters for their models. We believe that discussion of the needs and utility of mathematical modelling will lead to mutually beneficial collaborations between theoreticians and drug-use researchers. These collaborations may aid in the design and the evaluation of effective behavioural or medical intervention strategies.

England↗
PubMed1989

A pilot study of sexual lifestyle in a random sample of the population of Great Britain.

Rates of sexual-partner change and patterns of high-risk behaviour are important determinants of the spread of HIV. We carried out a survey to assess the feasibility of studying sexual lifestyle in a random sample of the British population, aged 16-64 years, in November 1987. Two thousand and seventy-seven households were selected using a multi-stage probability sampling procedure. Seven hundred and eight-five adults participated in a structured interview. The schedule included demographic details, attitudes to AIDS, numbers of sexual partners in different time periods, history of homosexuality and contact with prostitutes. An interview was obtained in 61% of households where contact was made, but the overall response rate was low (48%). There was marked variability between individuals in numbers of sexual partners in given time intervals. Men and women in younger cohorts had experienced first sexual intercourse earlier and had higher numbers of sexual partners than people in older cohorts. Surprisingly few reported high-risk behaviour such as homosexuality and use of prostitution. The methodological problems in trying to obtain unbiased and valid data on sexual behaviour are discussed. Further work is necessary to improve the response rate and questionnaire design.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Forecasting the future of HIV epidemics: the impact of antiretroviral therapies & imperfect vaccines.

Mathematical models can be used as health policy tools and predictive tools. Here we review how mathematical models have been used both to predict the consequences of specific epidemic control strategies and to design epidemic control strategies. We review how models have been used to evaluate the potential impact on HIV epidemics of (i) combination antiretroviral therapies (ART) and (ii) imperfect vaccines. In particular, we discuss how models have been used to predict the potential effect of ART on incidence rates, and to predict the evolution of an epidemic of drug-resistant HIV. We also discuss, in detail, how mathematical models have been used to evaluate the potential impact of prophylactic, live-attenuated and therapeutic HIV vaccines. We show how HIV vaccine models can be used to evaluate the epidemic-level impact of vaccine efficacy, waning in vaccine-induced immunity, vaccination coverage level, and changes (increases or decreases) in risky behavior. We also discuss how mathematical models can be used to determine the levels of cross-immunity that vaccines will need to attain if they are to be used to control HIV epidemics in countries where more than one subtype is being transmitted.

AIDS Vaccines↗