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S Engen

Publications and source records attributed to S Engen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2002

Estimating density dependence in time-series of age-structured populations.

For a life history with age at maturity alpha, and stochasticity and density dependence in adult recruitment and mortality, we derive a linearized autoregressive equation with time-lags of from 1 to alpha years. Contrary to current interpretations, the coefficients for different time-lags in the autoregressive dynamics do not simply measure delayed density dependence, but also depend on life-history parameters. We define a new measure of total density dependence in a life history, D, as the negative elasticity of population growth rate per generation with respect to change in population size, D = - partial differential lnlambda(T)/partial differential lnN, where lambda is the asymptotic multiplicative growth rate per year, T is the generation time and N is adult population size. We show that D can be estimated from the sum of the autoregression coefficients. We estimated D in populations of six avian species for which life-history data and unusually long time-series of complete population censuses were available. Estimates of D were in the order of 1 or higher, indicating strong, statistically significant density dependence in four of the six species.

Age Distribution↗
PubMed2001

A dynamic and spatial model with migration generating the log-Gaussian field of population densities.

A spatial version of a dynamic population model leading to the lognormal distribution is defined. The model establishes relations between the joint spatial and temporal autocorrelation and biological concepts like environmental stochasticity, migration and strength of local density-regulation. The model is generalized to describe communities of species leading to a dynamic and spatial lognormal species abundance model with migration.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Predicting the time to quasi-extinction for populations far below their carrying capacity.

Populations threatened by extinction are often far below their carrying capacity. A population collapse or quasi-extinction is defined to occur when the population size reaches some given lower density. If this density is chosen to be large enough for the demographic stochasticity to be ignored compared to environmental stochasticity, then the logarithm of the population size may be modelled by a Brownian motion until quasi-extinction occurs. The normal-gamma mixture of inverse Gaussian distributions can then be applied to define prediction intervals for the time to quasi-extinction in such processes. A similar mixture is used to predict the population size at a finite time for the same process provided that quasi-extinction has not occurred before that time. Stochastic simulations indicate that the coverage of the prediction interval is very close to the probability calculated theoretically. As an illustration, the method is applied to predict the time to extinction of a declining population of white stork in southwestern Germany.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Estimating the time to extinction in an island population of song sparrows.

We estimated and modelled how uncertainties in stochastic population dynamics and biases in parameter estimates affect the accuracy of the projections of a small island population of song sparrows which was enumerated every spring for 24 years. The estimate of the density regulation in a theta-logistic model (theta = 1.09 suggests that the dynamics are nearly logistic, with specific growth rate r1 = 0.99 and carrying capacity K = 41.54. The song sparrow population was strongly influenced by demographic (ŝigma2(d) = 0.66) and environmental (ŝigma2(d) = 0.41) stochasticity. Bootstrap replicates of the different parameters revealed that the uncertainties in the estimates of the specific growth rate r1 and the density regulation theta were larger than the uncertainties in the environmental variance sigma2(e) and the carrying capacity K. We introduce the concept of the population prediction interval (PPI), which is a stochastic interval which includes the unknown population size with probability (1 - alpha). The width of the PPI increased rapidly with time because of uncertainties in the estimates of density regulation as well as demographic and environmental variance in the stochastic population dynamics. Accepting a 10% probability of extinction within 100 years, neglecting uncertainties in the parameters will lead to a 33% overestimation of the time it takes for the extinction barrier (population size X = 1) to be included into the PPI. This study shows that ignoring uncertainties in population dynamics produces a substantial underestimation of the extinction risk.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Population dynamical consequences of climate change for a small temperate songbird.

Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Mutagenicity testing of organic extracts of diesel exhaust particles after spiking with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH).

In the present study, spiking was used as a strategy to evaluate the mutagenicity of individual compounds in a mixture. Mutagenicity of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) was evaluated in an organic extract of diesel exhaust particles (DEP). The particles were extracted with dichloromethane (DCM). After replacing DCM with dimethylsulphoxide (DMSO), the extract was spiked with four individual PAH: benzo(a)pyrene, benzo(a)anthracene, pyrene and fluoroanthene. The PAH were added separately and in various combinations to the extract to determine the effects of each variable and to identify possible interactions between the individual PAH and between the PAH and the extract. The study was designed as a fractional factorial experiment with the five variables (the DEP extract and the four PAH), giving 16 (instead of 32) mixtures plus a triplicate centrepoint and background, i.e. a total of 20. The fractionated factorial design used in the present work supports a model with linear and interaction terms. The mixtures were tested for mutagenicity in the Ames assay using four strains of Salmonella typhimurium in the presence of rat liver xenobiotic enzymes (S9-mix). Projections to Latent Structures (PLS) was used to quantify the mutagenicity of each compound and possible interactions. The four individual PAH and the DEP extract acted additively in the Ames test with 10% S9-mix.

Anthracenes↗
PubMed1998

Analysis of genetic structure and dispersal patterns in a population of sea beet.

A model of the migration pattern in a metapopulation of sea beet (Beta vulgaris L. ssp. maritima), based on the continuous distributions of seed and pollen movements, is fitted to gene frequency data at 12 isozyme and RFLP loci by maximum likelihood by using an approximation of the simultaneous equilibrium distribution of the gene frequencies generated by the underlying multivariate stochastic process of genetic drift in the population. Several alternative restrictions of the general model are fitted to the data, including the island model, a model of complete isolation, and a model in which the seed and pollen dispersal variances are equal. Several likelihood ratio tests between these alternatives are performed, and median bias in the estimated parameters is corrected by using parametric bootstrapping. To assess the fit of the selected model, the predicted covariances are compared with covariances computed from the data directly. The dependency of estimated parameters on the ratio between effective and absolute subpopulation sizes, which is treated as a known parameter in the analysis, is also examined. Finally, we note that the data also appear to contain some information about this ratio.

Alleles↗
PubMed1997

Stochastic Dispersal Processes in Plant Populations

A dispersal model for airborne pollen based on assumptions about wind directionality, gravity, and a wind threshold at which pollen is taken by the wind is developed, using a three dimensional diffusion approximation. The bivariate probability distribution of pollen receipt by flowers at the same height as the pollen source is derived. Gravity, vertical random movements, and vegetation density turn out to have similar effects on this distribution. Maximum likelihood methods for estimating the combined parameters from data with multiple point or continuous pollen sources, and one or more plant varieties, are developed. Using an example data set from the literature, it is shown that our model gives a better fit than more traditional descriptive dispersal models of the form e-ar b. We also show that estimates of important properties of the dispersal distribution, such as the variances, become considerably smaller using our model than for the more traditional models. Finally, we discuss potential extensions and evolutionary implications of these types of models. Copyright 1997 Academic Press

Journal Article↗
PubMed1997

Mutagenicity testing of organic extracts of diesel exhaust particles after fractionation and recombination.

A new strategy for the evaluation of mixtures is presented. The mixture used was the organic extract of diesel exhaust particles (DEP). After extraction with dichloromethane (DCM), the crude extract was fractionated according to polarity into five fractions: aliphatic hydrocarbons, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), nitro-PAHs, dinitro-PAHs, and polar compounds. After dissolving in dimethylsulphoxide (DMSO), the three fractions containing the primary mutagens (fractions 3-5) were recombined in different combinations to create new extracts. The blend matrix was obtained using a mixture design at three dose levels to support an empirical model with linear, interaction, and quadratic terms (Taylor polynome). The recombined extracts were tested in the Ames Salmonella assay using strain TA100. Multivariate data analysis was performed with projections to latent structures (PLS). The best model describing the relation between the mutagenicity (response) and the three fractions (variables) contained two interaction terms. The model showed high correlation (r2) and prediction properties (Q2), the latter obtained after cross validation. Interaction terms are only indications of possible synergism or antagonism and have to be evaluated with respect to dose-additivity and response-additivity. The incorporation of dose in the design reduced the number of samples (recombined extracts) significantly, compared to determining dose-response curves on each sample (i.e. the recombined extracts in different dilutions). Furthermore, instead of running two independent experiments as required in the standard procedure for the Ames test, predictions and verifications of a few new samples were used. The principle of fractionation and recombination, and the use of mixture design may in principle be extended to an unlimited number of variables. An adaptation of mixture design to the isobole method is discussed.

Hydrocarbons↗
PubMed1996

Population dynamic models generating the lognormal species abundance distribution.

This paper deals with a new class of stochastic species abundance models where the abundances are the points of an inhomogeneous Poisson process. These models are the result of a dynamic approach in which the changes in abundances through time are described by a multivariate diffusion and speciation constitutes a homogeneous Poisson process. In particular, the lognormal model is generated by assuming that the density regulation within each species is given by the Gompertz curve and that the environmental variances are constant. A substantial generalization is obtained by introducing a general type of interspecific density regulation and correlated environmental noise. This more general mechanism also generates the lognormal species abundance distribution.

Animals↗
PubMed1996

Inferring patterns of migration from gene frequencies under equilibrium conditions.

A new maximum likelihood method to simultaneously estimate the parameters of any migration pattern from gene frequencies in stochastic equilibrium is developed, based on a model of multivariate genetic drift in a subdivided population. Motivated by simulations of this process in the simplified case of two subpopulations, problems related to the nuisance parameter q, the equilibrium gene frequency, are eliminated by conditioning on the observed mean gene frequency. The covariance matrix of this conditional distribution is calculated by constructing an abstract process that mimics the behavior of the original process in the subspace of interest. The approximation holds as long as there is limited differentiation between subpopulations. The bias and variance of estimates of long-range and short-range migration in a finite stepping stone model are evaluated by fitting the model to simulated data with known values of the parameters. Possible ecological extensions of the model are discussed.

Animals↗
PubMed1992

Sexual mixing models: a comparison of analogue deterministic and stochastic models.

Models for sexual partner choice are discussed for the case of highly variable sexual activity in the population. It is demonstrated that the variances in the number of infected persons may be extremely large. For the random mixing model, higher order cumulants are also evaluated. On the basis of these results the applicability of deterministic models and models for expectations only are questioned. A general model is proposed for handling nonrandom, or correlated, mixing. The problem of inconsistency is overcome by considering the couples having sex as the natural unit in the model. In the case of s discrete homogeneous groups it is shown that only (s2) parameters defining the interaction between the groups can be chosen freely. Finally, the effect of correlation in partner choice is demonstrated by a bivariate lognormal model for partner choice.

Female↗
PubMed1989

Age-specific optimal diets and optimal foraging tactics: a life-historic approach.

By linking optimal foraging theory and optimal life history theory, we demonstrate that optimal diets, in general, may depend on the individual's age even when everything else remains the same. Older individuals (i.e., individuals with lower reproductive values) are predicted to have diets composed of highly nutritious food types that are possibly dangerous to pursue.

Aging↗
PubMed1987

Epidemiology of AIDS--statistical analyses.

Some central questions concerning the epidemiology of AIDS are addressed by statistical analyses. Applying standard maximum likelihood theory to reported cases of transfusion-associated AIDS in the US, the mean and standard deviation of incubation time for AIDS are estimated to be about 60 and 19 months, respectively. If these parameters are applied to the data from the San Francisco CDC cohort study, we find a good correspondence between estimated and reported cases of AIDS when the probability factor p is 0.27-meaning that about 27% of those infected with HIV are expected to develop AIDS during a period of 8-10 years. Application of the incubation time model and the probability factor p to the data on transfusion-associated AIDS makes it possible to estimate the number of transfusion-associated infections with HIV from 1978 to 1984. These estimates give an exponential increase in the number of cases, with a relative increase of 2.74 each year. It seems reasonable to assume that this increase reflects the spread of the virus within this period.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1985

The evolutionary significance of sexual selection.

A model for the joint evolution of a secondary sexual male trait Z and a female mating preference Y is discussed. Recurrence relations for the moments of (Z, Y) are given under the assumption that the traits are binormally distributed. It is shown that female preference for a male character can lead to an equilibrium distribution of the male trait with non-zero variances. The conditions under which the distribution is stable, are given. Unstable situations, in which a continued exaggeration of the male trait occurs, are described. It is demonstrated that the effect of sexual selection on the evolution of the male trait depends on the intensity of natural selection, i.e. the effect of the sexual selection increases when the intensity of natural selection is reduced. The effect of the female preference on the male trait also increases with increasing availability of males. This provides a link to several ecological conditions which have generally been known to be correlated with the degree of sexual selection. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that perturbations away from the equilibrium may cause rapid evolution of the male character, eventually leading to speciation.

Animals↗
PubMed1985

Statistical derivation of a standardised procedure for counting expectorated alveolar macrophages as indicators of occupational air pollution.

A biological test in which counts of expectorated alveolar macrophages are used to evaluate lung irritation attributable to occupational air pollution has been applied to workers exposed to dust and gas pollution. To determine the optimum allocation of resources when performing the test, the sampling and counting procedures have been evaluated statistically. Alveolar macrophages (AM) were recovered from workers at an iron works, an aluminium plant (one large and one small group), and from a small group of non-exposed smokers; the number of subjects was 213. Sampling was repeated with the small group at the aluminium plant (27 subjects) on three consecutive days and the small group of non-exposed smokers on five (3 subjects). AM were counted from smear slides using a light microscope. A standard random effects model was used as the basis for estimating the expectation of the log-transformed overall means (mu) and the variances (var(mu)) of the two categories at the aluminium plant and of the non-exposed smokers. The costs connected with finding mu consist of the financial expenses and the working efforts and time used to perform the test. The precision and reproducibility of the test are closely related to the variability in the results, var (mu). To optimise the costs but still obtain reproducible results, AM should be counted in four drops of expectorate from each of three samples from at least 10 to 20 subjects.

Air Pollutants, Occupational↗