PubMed Health⌕ Search

Biomedical subjects

S Gregson

Publications and source records attributed to S Gregson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2006

Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether observed changes in HIV prevalence in countries with generalised HIV epidemics are associated with changes in sexual risk behaviour. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to explore the relation between prevalence recorded at antenatal clinics (ANCs) and the pattern of incidence of infection throughout the population. To create a null model a range of assumptions about sexual behaviour, natural history of infection, and sampling biases in ANC populations were explored to determine which factors maximised declines in prevalence in the absence of behaviour change. Modelled prevalence, where possible based on locally collected behavioural data, was compared with the observed prevalence data in urban Haiti, urban Kenya, urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Uganda, and urban Ethiopia. RESULTS: Recent downturns in prevalence observed in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti, like Uganda before them, could only be replicated in the model through reductions in risk associated with changes in behaviour. In contrast, prevalence trends in urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, urban Ethiopia, and Rwanda show no signs of changed sexual behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in patterns of HIV prevalence in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti are quite recent and caution is required because of doubts over the accuracy and representativeness of these estimates. Nonetheless, the observed changes are consistent with behaviour change and not the natural course of the HIV epidemic.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Criteria for detecting and understanding changes in the risk of HIV infection at a national level in generalised epidemics.

Identification of causes of changes in prevalence and incidence of HIV at a national level is important for planning future prevention and intervention needs. However, the slow progression to disease and the sensitive and stigmatising nature of the associated behaviours can make this difficult. Changing rates of incidence are to be expected as an epidemic progresses, but separating background changes from those brought about by changes in behaviour and interventions requires careful analysis. This paper discusses the criteria required to determine whether observed changes in HIV prevalence are the result of changes in behaviour.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Behavioural data as an adjunct to HIV surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Second generation surveillance for HIV aims to improve the validity and utility of routine serial HIV prevalence data. It includes the collection of data on sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted disease prevalence. METHODS: This paper reviews the function of sexual behaviour data in HIV surveillance and the methods used to determine which behaviours are monitored and how changes in behaviour can be assessed. RESULTS: Sexual behaviour data provide a poor predictor of the future spread of HIV, but these data can provide corroboration of changes in HIV incidence and assist in attributing changes to particular aspects of risk. Significance tests should be used to assess changes in behaviour, but this requires transparent reporting of methods and sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS: Collection of behavioural data will provide important retrospective information about the HIV epidemic progress and should not be neglected because of the focus on improving HIV sero-surveillance.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

HIV prevalence and trends from data in Zimbabwe, 1997-2004.

BACKGROUND: This paper brings together data from a variety of reports to provide a basis for assessing future steps for responding to and monitoring the HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe. METHOD: Data reported from four antenatal clinic (ANC) surveys conducted between 2000 and 2004, two small local studies in Zimbabwe conducted from 1997 through 2003, four general population surveys from 1999 through 2003, and service statistics covering 1990 through 2004 were used to describe recent trends in HIV prevalence and incidence, behaviour change, and programme provision. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending ANCs declined substantially from 32.1% in 2000 to 23.9% in 2004. The local studies confirmed the decline in prevalence. However, prevalence continued to be high. Sexual behaviour data from surveys suggests a reduction in sexual experience before age 15 years among both males and females age 15-19 years, and in the proportions of males and females aged 15-29 years reporting non-regular sexual partners in the past 12 months. Reported condom use with non-regular partners has been high since 1999. Condom distribution and HIV counseling and testing increased from 2000 to 2004. DISCUSSION: On the basis of examination of data from a variety of sources, the recent decrease in HIV prevalence may be related to recent reductions in early-age sexual activity and non-regular sexual partnerships and increases in condom use. Comparison of data from sentinel surveillance systems, population based serosurveys, local studies, and service statistics provide increased confidence that a decline in HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe is actually happening in the population.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

HIV infection and reproductive health in teenage women orphaned and made vulnerable by AIDS in Zimbabwe.

AIDS has increased the number of orphans and vulnerable children (OVCs) in sub-Saharan Africa who could suffer detrimental life experiences. We investigated whether OVCs have heightened risks of adverse reproductive health outcomes including HIV infection. Data on HIV infection, sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms and pregnancy, and common risk factors were collected for OVCs and non-OVCs in a population survey of 1523 teenage children in eastern Zimbabwe between July 2001 and March 2003. Multivariate logistic regression was used to test for statistical association between OVC status, adverse reproductive health outcomes and suspected risk factors. Amongst women aged 15-18 years, OVCs had higher HIV prevalence than non-OVCs (3.2% versus 0.0%; p = 0.002) and more common experience of STI symptoms (5.9% versus 3.3%; adjusted odds ratio = 1.75, 95% CI 0.80-3.80) and teenage pregnancy (8.3% versus 1.9%; 4.25, 1.58-11.42). OVCs (overall), maternal orphans and young women with an infected parent were more likely to have received no secondary school education and to have started sex and married, which, in turn, were associated with poor reproductive health. Amongst men aged 17-18 years, OVC status was not associated with HIV infection (0.5% versus 0.0%; p = 1.000) or STI symptoms (2.7% versus 1.6%; p = 0.529). No association was found between history of medical injections and HIV risk amongst teenage women and men. High proportions of HIV infections, STIs and pregnancies among teenage girls in eastern Zimbabwe can be attributed to maternal orphanhood and parental HIV. Many of these could be averted through further female secondary school education. Predicted substantial expanded increases in orphanhood could hamper efforts to slow the acquisition of HIV infection in successive generations of young adults, perpetuating the vicious cycle of poverty and disease.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

Patterns of uptake of treatment for self reported sexually transmitted infection symptoms in rural Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the extent of self reported symptoms perceived to be related to sexually transmitted infections and the patterns of subsequent treatment seeking behaviour in a predominantly rural population of Zimbabwe. METHODS: A population based survey of 4331 men and 5149 women was conducted in rural Zimbabwe during 1998-2000. Structured confidential interviews collected data on self reported sexually transmitted infection symptoms, treatment seeking behaviour, sociodemographic characteristics, and sexual behaviour. RESULTS: 25% of men aged 17-54 years report experiencing genital sores and 25% of men report experiencing urethral discharge; 30% of women aged 15-44 years report experiencing vaginal discharge. The lifetime number of sexual partners, age, and years of sexual activity were all significant predictors of symptoms for both men and women (all p values <0.001). 92% of men and 62% of women had sought treatment for their symptoms in the past year (p value <0.001). Men and women were equally likely to have sought treatment at a local hospital or clinic, but women were much less likely than men to have sought treatment at a different hospital or clinic. Among those who had sought treatment, men sought treatment faster than women and were more likely to report being "very satisfied" with their treatment than women. CONCLUSIONS: The gender differences in treatment seeking are of major concern for control efforts and further work on determining the reasons for these should be a priority. This would inform the likely impact of both increasing availability of local services and further reducing the stigma faced by those wishing to access such services.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Informal confidential voting interview methods and temporal changes in reported sexual risk behaviour for HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Reliable data on sexual behaviour trends are needed to evaluate HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa but are difficult to obtain due inter alia to social desirability bias. The objective of this paper is to assess whether the use of informal confidential voting interviews (ICVI) was associated with greater reporting of socially proscribed behavioural risk factors for HIV infection than were conventional interviewing methods. METHODS: Comparison of changes in reports of risk behaviours for HIV infection in ICVI versus face to face interviews (FTFIs) between the first two rounds of a large scale, longitudinal, population based survey in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Examination of factors that could contribute to observed changes in the effect of ICVI, including temporal changes in response error and social desirability, and factors affecting statistical power to detect differences between methods-that is, reductions in the prevalence of risk behaviours and sample size. RESULTS: Enhanced reporting of HIV associated risk behaviours in ICVI interviews was not so apparent in the second round as in the first round of the survey, particularly for less frequently reported behaviours. Levels of reported HIV associated risk behaviour and sample sizes both declined between the two survey rounds. The level of response error was higher in ICVI interviews than in FTFI interviews but did not alter over time. CONCLUSION: ICVI interviews can reduce social desirability bias in data on HIV associated risk behaviours. The extent and direction of change in net reduction in bias over time remains uncertain and will depend on local circumstances.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

A rural HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe? Findings from a population-based survey.

The aim of the study was to use population-based data from 689 adults to describe the socio-demographic, behavioural and biomedical correlates of HIV infection and aid identification of effective HIV control strategies for rural Zimbabwe. Dried blood spot and urine samples were collected for HIV and sexually transmitted disease (STD) testing and participants were interviewed on socio-demographic characteristics, sexual behaviour and experience of STD symptoms. HIV seroprevalence was 23.3% and was higher in females, divorcees, widows, working men, estate residents, and respondents reporting histories of STD symptoms. Female HIV seroprevalence rises sharply at ages 16-25. A third of sexually-active adults had experienced STD-associated symptoms but there were delays in seeking treatment. Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and Trichomonas vaginalis are more common causes than syphilis, gonorrhoea, and chlamydia, and are strongly associated with HIV infection. Local programmes promoting safer sexual behaviour and fast and effective STD treatment among young women, divorcees and working men could reduce the extensive HIV transmission in rural communities.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

Enzyme immunoassay for urogenital trichomoniasis as a marker of unsafe sexual behaviour.

Enzyme immunoassay (EIA) was used to detect antibodies to Trichomonas vaginalis in sera from Zimbabwe. The EIA showed a sensitivity of 95 and 94% when compared with vaginal swab culture among women attending a family planning clinic (FPC) and female commercial sex workers (CSW) respectively. The specificity was 85 and 77% in the two groups. Culture-negative FPC women were sub-divided into high risk or low risk of exposure to trichomoniasis. The seroprevalence was 10% (6/61) among low risk women, 21% (10/48) among high risk women and 23% (9/39) among culture negative CSW. The EIA was positive in 46% (18/39) men with genital discharge but only 5% (2/37) healthy blood donors. None of 31 sera from prepubescent children was positive. The EIA may be useful for community surveys of trichomoniasis. Because T. vaginalis is a common sexually transmitted disease, the test may indicate behaviour that increases the risk of STD transmission.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

The effectiveness of HIV prevention and the epidemiological context.

Planning an intervention to prevent infections with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) should be guided by local epidemiological and socioeconomic conditions. The socioeconomic setting and existing public service capacity determine whether an intervention can have a significant outcome in terms of a reduction in a defined risk. The epidemiological context determines whether such risk reduction translates into a measurable impact on HIV incidence. Measurement of variables describing the epidemiological context can be used to determine the local suitability of interventions, thereby guiding planners and policy-makers in their choice of intervention. Such measurements also permit the retrospective analysis of the impact of interventions where HIV incidence was not recorded. The epidemiological context is defined for four different categories of intervention, shown to be effective in lower-income countries by randomized controlled trials. Appropriate indicators for the epidemiological context and methodological guidelines for their measurement are proposed. Their use in the transfer of a successful intervention from one context to another and in scaling up the effort to control HIV infection is explored. These indicators should provide a useful resource for those involved in planning HIV prevention interventions.

Developing Countries↗
PubMed2000

Adjusting ante-natal clinic data for improved estimates of HIV prevalence among women in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To find a simple and robust method for adjusting ante-natal clinic data on HIV prevalence to represent prevalence in the general female population in the same age range, allowing for fertility differences by HIV status. BACKGROUND: HIV prevalence comparisons for pregnant women and women in the general community show that prevalence in the latter is significantly higher than in the former. An adjustment procedure is needed that is specific for the demographic and epidemiological circumstances of a particular population, making maximum use of data that can easily be collected in ante-natal clinics or are widely available from secondary sources. METHODS: Birth interval length data are used to allow for subfertility among HIV-positive women. To allow for infertility, relative HIV prevalence ratios for fertile and infertile women obtained in community surveys in populations with similar levels of contraception use are applied to demographic survey data that describe the structure of the population not at risk of child-bearing. RESULTS: For populations with low contraception use, the procedure yields estimates of general female HIV prevalence of 35-65% higher than the observed ante-natal prevalence, depending on population structure. Results were verified using general population prevalence data collected in Kisesa (Tanzania) and Masaka (Uganda). For high contraception use populations, adjusted values range from 15% higher to 5% lower, but only limited verification has been possible so far. CONCLUSIONS: The procedure is suitable for estimating general female HIV prevalence in low contraception use populations, but the high contraception variant needs further testing before it can be applied widely.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2000

Chlamydia trachomatis in symptomatic and asymptomatic men: detection in urine by enzyme immunoassay.

BACKGROUND: Infection with Chlamydia trachomatis is known to be a common cause of urethritis and cervicitis. The standard methods of detection require the collection of intra-urethral and/or cervical swabs, which may be submitted for culture, antigen detection or nucleic acid amplification. The collection of swabs is suitable only within the context of a health care facility. Recent reports have indicated that antigen detection can be used with urine specimens, and because these can be self-collected, this may be particularly useful for the detection of asymptomatic carriage. OBJECTIVE: To determine the sensitivity and specificity of urine antigen assays in the detection of chlamydial infection in men. SETTING: Two groups of men were investigated; men with urethritis attending clinics or private practitioners, and healthy adult men enrolled into either urban or rural HIV prevention projects. METHODS: Urine samples from men in both groups were collected and assayed for the presence of chlamydial antigen using a commercial enzyme immunoassay (EIA) kit. For symptomatic men an intra-urethral swab was also collected and assayed for antigen detection using a commercial EIA. For asymptomatic men, a ligase chain reaction was carried out on the same urine sample. RESULTS: The prevalence of chlamydial antigen in symptomatic men was 15% (39/257), and in asymptomatic men was 4% (15/349). The sensitivity and specificity of urine EIA for symptomatic men was 87% and 83% respectively. For asymptomatic men, the sensitivity of urine EIA was 86%, and the specificity was 100%. CONCLUSION: Urine EIA is a relatively inexpensive method for the detection of chlamydial infections in men. The true specificity in symptomatic men may be higher, as the "gold standard" that we used may give false negative results. Antigen EIA for examination of urine specimens from community surveys of asymptomatic men may be particularly useful because of the low cost of assays, and because urine samples can be self-collected without discomfort to study subjects. The prevalence of C. trachomatis that we describe here is consistent with other studies of chlamydial epidemiology in Zimbabwe.

Chlamydia Infections↗
PubMed1999

Reductions in risk behaviour provide the most consistent explanation for declining HIV-1 prevalence in Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To monitor the HIV-1 epidemic in Western Uganda and the possible impact of interventions. DESIGN: Results from sentinel surveillance of HIV-1 seroprevalence were compared with cross-sectional serosurvey data and model simulations. METHODS: Age-specific trends in HIV-1 prevalence between 1991 and 1997 amongst antenatal clinic (ANC) attenders in the town of Fort Portal, where a comprehensive AIDS control programme has been implemented since 1991, were analysed. Results were compared with outputs from a mathematical model simulating the HIV-1 epidemic in Uganda. Two scenarios were modelled: one without and one with behaviour change. Sentinel surveillance data were compared with data from a population-based HIV-1 serosurvey at the study site, which was carried out in early 1995. RESULTS: Data from 3271 ANC attenders identified greater education and being single as risk factors for HIV-1 infection. A significant decrease of risk for women with secondary school education over time was observed, whereas the risk for illiterate women remained high. Among women aged 15-19 years (n = 1045) education and marital status-adjusted HIV-1 prevalence declined steadily from 32.2% in 1991 to 10.3% in 1997. For 20-24-year-old women (n = 1010) HIV-1 prevalence increased until 1993 from 19.9% to 31.7% and decreased thereafter (21.7% in 1997). These trends closely follow the prediction of the model simulation assuming behaviour change, and for 1995-1997, confidence intervals of the HIV-1 prevalence estimate exclude the model output for an uninfluenced epidemic. No clear trends of HIV-1 prevalence were found in older women (n = 1216) and comparisons with the model were ambiguous. Sentinel surveillance data at the time of the population survey closely reflected results for the female general population sample for the two younger age-groups (15-19 and 20-24 years). In contrast, pregnant women aged 25-29 years showed significantly lower rates than the population sample (20.8% versus 45.1%). CONCLUSION: HIV-1 prevalence amongst ANC attenders aged 15-24 years can be used to monitor the HIV-1 epidemic in the given setting. Declining trends of HIV-1 prevalence in women aged 15-19 and 20-24 years most likely correspond to a reduced HIV-1 incidence attributable to changes in behaviour. Our data also show that sentinel surveillance data need to be age-stratified to give useful information.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1999

Apostles and Zionists: the influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe.

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or "Spirit-type" churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.

History, 20th Century↗
PubMed1998

Estimating HIV incidence from age-specific prevalence data: comparison with concurrent cohort estimates in a study of male factory workers, Harare, Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE: To compare HIV incidence estimates from cross-sectional age-specific prevalence data with concurrent cohort estimates and to examine the sensitivity of the estimates to changes in age-categorization and survivorship assumptions. METHODS: Two previously described methods of estimating HIV incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data - the cumulative incidence and survival (CIS) and constant prevalence (CP) methods - are applied using data from a study of male factory workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. The methods are applied under two alternative groupings of the HIV prevalence data and under alternative survivorship assumptions: (a) Weibull distribution providing the best fit to the HIV prevalence data using the CIS method; (b) Weibull distribution matching data from an HIV natural history cohort study in Uganda; and (c) survivorship pattern as in (b) with survival periods reducing with increasing age at infection. Age-specific, age-standardized and cumulative HIV incidence estimates are calculated. The results are compared with concurrent longitudinal estimates from 3 years of follow-up of the Harare cohort (1993-1995). RESULTS: Age-standardized HIV incidence was estimated at 2.02 per 100 man years (95% CI, 1.57-2.47) in the cohort study. There was evidence of recent variability in HIV incidence in these data. Estimates from the cross-sectional methods ranged from 1.98 to 2.74 per 100 man years and were sensitive to changes in age-categorization of the HIV prevalence data and changes in survivorship assumptions. The cross-sectional estimates were higher at central ages and lower at older ages than the cohort estimates. The age-specific estimates from the CIS method were less sensitive to changes in age grouping than those from the CP method. CONCLUSIONS: HIV incidence remains high in Harare. Incidence estimates broadly consistent with cohort estimates can be obtained from single-round cross-sectional HIV prevalence data in established epidemics - even when the underlying assumption of stable endemic prevalence is not fully met. Estimates based on cross-sectional surveys should therefore be explored when reliable longitudinal estimates cannot be obtained. More data on post-HIV infection survivorship distributions in sub-Saharan Africa would facilitate the improvement of estimates of incidence based on cross-sectional surveys.

Adolescent↗