An analysis of excess mortality not predicted to occur by APACHE III in an Australian level III intensive care unit.
The APACHE III derived standardized mortality ratio has been suggested as a statistic to measure intensive care unit (ICU) effectiveness. From 1991 data collected on 519 consecutive admissions to the Royal Adelaide Hospital ICU a standardized mortality ratio of 1.25 was calculated. Of the 174 deaths only 95 had a prediction of death greater than 0.5. As part of a quality assurance study we undertook a retrospective case note audit to try to identify factors that were associated with the low mortality prediction (< 0.5) in hospital deaths. Firstly we analysed the patient population that died to determine the factors that were different between patients who had a mortality prediction of greater than 0.5 versus those who had a mortality prediction of less than 0.5. Next we analysed the patient population with a mortality prediction of less than 0.5 and compared actual survivors with patients who died in hospital. Amongst low mortality prediction patients admitted to the Royal Adelaide Hospital ICU we identified age, a history of acute myocardial infarction, presentation to ICU after a cardiac arrest or with an elevated creatinine and the development of acute renal failure and septicaemia during the ICU admission as being associated with in-hospital mortality. We also documented that late hospital deaths on the ward after ICU discharge occurred more frequently with low predicted hospital mortality ICU patients. Factors other than the APACHE III score may be associated with hospital deaths of ICU patients.