How safe is safe enough? New infections and the U.S. blood supply.
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HIV Infections↗
Biomedical subjects
S J Heymann
Publications and source records attributed to S J Heymann.
The problem of transfusion-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in Africa: a quantitative approach.
BACKGROUND: Transfusion-associated AIDS accounts for 10% of all cases of AIDS in Africa. The risk of HIV-1 contamination in transfusions continues to exist, even in countries where blood products are screened, because of limitations in test sensitivity, human error, and the window period. Furthermore, 30 African countries do not screen all of their blood products because of resource limitations. METHODS: This study used decision analysis to compare the survival outcomes of severely anemic patients who are transfused with those of patients who are not transfused. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: When 5% of the blood supply is HIV-1 contaminated, every patient with a 6.6% or greater risk of dying from anemia should be transfused. Detailed results are provided for a wide range of HIV-1 contamination rates. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a method for developing and evaluating locality-specific transfusion guidelines. This method can be applied to other regions, including the United States, and to other diseases transmitted by blood products.
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
Erratum in Heymann article.
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Breast Feeding↗
Modeling the impact of breast-feeding by HIV-infected women on child survival.
This study models the survival outcomes of children born to HIV-infected (human immunodeficiency virus) women who are breast-fed, bottle-fed, and wet-nursed. It is estimated that, given the relative risk of alternatives to maternal milk in developing countries, the probability of HIV transmission via breast milk would need to be at least .12 in a community with an under five child mortality rate from non-HIV causes of 100/1000 live births and at least .27 in a community with a rate of 200/1000 before alternative feeding practices should be recommended even to the known HIV-infected mother who has an available feeding alternative with a relative risk of 2:1. While such a low relative risk may be achievable with wet nursing, most studies report a relative risk of at least 3:1 for bottle feeding. A sensitivity analysis is conducted around the relative risk of child mortality from non-HIV causes associated with different feeding practices. While the critical transmission rate does not vary significantly with a rate of false positives as high as 20 percent on the HIV screening test, the critical transmission rate is very sensitive to the availability of HIV screening. In communities where the HIV prevalence rate among mothers reaches 40 percent, breast-feeding should still be recommended in the absence of HIV screening unless HIV transmission via breast milk surpasses 30 percent.
Breast Feeding↗